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*** The Official Cowgirls/69'ers GDT *** (https://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=347119)

The crazy thing to me is, the math favors going for the 2 point conversion every time, regardless of anything else. Chip Kelly understood this well.

So if the math slightly favors going for it with all else equal, it should be a no-brainer to go for it when your kicker turns into Steve Sax. But they won't do it.

This same logic applies to the Chiefs with Butker imo. KC should go for it all the time.

Hate the Cowboys but I want to keep seeing extra point kicks.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MahomesIsTheMVP (Post 16757008)

Hate the Cowboys but I want to keep seeing extra point kicks.

got to watch a train wreck

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mahomes_Is_God (Post 16756995)

Hm, maybe the walmart greeter wasn't such a bad idea.

have you seen a Wal-mart greeter? pretty sure they can't block any better than that guy just did.

Dallas D still has plenty of time to take things over, they're exposing Purdy

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vladimir_Kyrilytch (Post 16757004)

chip kelly didn't last what, three seasons?

The Cowboys are forcing Purdy into dink and dunk which will eventually pay off with him making mistakes.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Megatron96 (Post 16757019)

chip kelly didn't last what, three seasons?

should have stayed at ORE

that is one big ass boat

538 dug into this some years ago, the question of 2-point conversion or extra point. They concluded it is completely 50/50:

Quote:

According to ESPN Stats & Information Group, there have been 1,045 two-point conversion attempts since 2001,1 with teams converting 501 of those tries. That’s a 47.9 percent conversion rate; given that a successful attempt yields 2 points, that means the expected value from an average 2-point try is 0.96 points.

Interestingly, that’s almost exactly what the expected value is from an extra point these days. Since the NFL moved extra-point kicks back to the 15-yard line last season, teams have a 94.4 percent success rate, which means that an extra point has an expected value of between 0.94 and 0.95 points.

This means that, all else being equal, the average team should be indifferent between going for two or kicking an extra point.

So when your kicker is having the issues of Maher or even Butker, the math would clearly say go for it with no hesitation. With KC though, their struggles with gaining short yardage might throw the math back the other way. Maybe.

Quote:

Originally Posted by displacedinMN (Post 16757024)

should have stayed at ORE

Definitely. he was not a good NFL coach.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vladimir_Kyrilytch (Post 16757004)

The crazy thing to me is, the math favors going for the 2 point conversion every time, regardless of anything else. Chip Kelly understood this well.

So if the math slightly favors going for it with all else equal, it should be a no-brainer to go for it when your kicker turns into Steve Sax. But they won't do it.

This same logic applies to the Chiefs with Butker imo. KC should go for it all the time.

That's the whole problem... if you're scoring 3 or 4 touchdowns in a game and going for 2 every time only works out slightly in favor, you're still taking the risk that you're on the wrong side of that every single game, mutually exclusive of the times it works out.

Make the 2
Miss it
Make it
...yay, you have a whole extra point.

Miss the 2
Make it
Miss it
...well, -1 this game.

...and you don't know if you'll get that extra chance to make up for a miss.

Points are too valuable in any given game to simply say across 100 chances, you'll come out on top +5 points.

And idiots like Staley have ****ed it up plenty of times, overthinking it and going for (and missing) early, and then kicking EPs late when they should actually going for 2, etc.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Megatron96 (Post 16757033)

Definitely. he was not a good NFL coach.

He was the talk of the league for a while. After his NFL stint, he went back to college, and now he has UCLA in the top 10 every year instead of the Ducks.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mr. tegu (Post 16757022)

The Cowboys are forcing Purdy into dink and dunk which will eventually pay off with him making mistakes.

Thing is, that offense is literally dink and dunk passing strategy with a healthy dose of rushing. right now, they've run the ball just 7 times. They're backwards right now.