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Fansy the Famous Bard 02-05-2014 10:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 10415584)
Only if you trade for the player before the start of the season. Half-season rentals don't bring back the comp pick.

Are you still able to give a QO to trade deadline acquisitions?

alnorth 02-05-2014 10:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zeke (Post 10415590)
Are you still able to give a QO to trade deadline acquisitions?

Nope.

edit: unless he isn't going to be a free agent after that year. If you trade for a guy with 4.5 years of service, then sure, after the next season you could since you'd have him for that entire final season.

Fansy the Famous Bard 02-05-2014 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth (Post 10415594)
Nope. edit: unless he isn't going to be a free agent after that year. If you trade for a guy with 4.5 years of service, then sure.

Right, makes sense... and that definitely changes the landscape of the deadline firesales. I wasn't under the impression that this was the case (on the QO and pick), but it's not something I disagree with.

alnorth 02-05-2014 11:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zeke (Post 10415602)
Right, makes sense... and that definitely changes the landscape of the deadline firesales. I wasn't under the impression that this was the case (on the QO and pick), but it's not something I disagree with.

Yeah, its a brand-new rule with the new CBA. When they introduced the QO and new draft pick rules, they also required that you had to have the player for the entire season to extend a QO. They probably got sick of seeing the A's grind out all those free draft picks.

duncan_idaho 02-05-2014 11:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth (Post 10415611)
Yeah, its a brand-new rule with the new CBA. When they introduced the QO and new draft pick rules, they also required that you had to have the player for the entire season to extend a QO. They probably got sick of seeing the A's grind out all those free draft picks.

... and tired of seeing the Rays grind out picks out of Type B free agents...

alnorth 02-05-2014 03:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 10415561)
3) Inability to track defensive effects. (Because defensive metrics are bad/unreliable, there is no good way to plug them into a projection tool. This hurts defensive clubs like the Royals in terms of projecting run prevention).

Yeah, if you want to optimistically believe we can beat the Tigers, you've got to hang your hat on defense. Its clear that the royals don't just have a good defense, they have an elite defense that can make mediocre pitchers look good.

We can barely measure that sort of thing in a way that is usable by WAR, there's still questions about dWAR and whether you need 2 or 3 full seasons, etc. Projections can't handle defense at all, they have to basically presume every team has a league-average defense and focus just on pitching and offense. If we really did have a league-average defense, we'd be in a lot of trouble.

Errors are easy to see, we all know that 4-out and 5-out innings lead to a lot of runs, but the Royals tend to give their opponents 8 or 9 "hard 3-out" innings, and our opponents usually give the Royals at least 2 "soft 3-out" innings per night. Those are innings where it wasn't really an error and they didn't really make a mistake, it would have taken a great play to make the out, but they didn't, so we've got a soft 3 outs to work with and do some damage. The other team doesn't get those, if you want to get on base against the Royals, you have to get a clear hit or take a walk.

-King- 02-05-2014 04:05 PM

It's like Duncan and Alnorth speak a totally different language in this thread sometimes....

jbwm89 02-05-2014 04:12 PM

So basically we should include the pick we will get when Shields walks when evaluating "THE TRADE".

DeezNutz 02-05-2014 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth (Post 10416180)
Yeah, if you want to optimistically believe we can beat the Tigers, you've got to hang your hat on defense. Its clear that the royals don't just have a good defense, they have an elite defense that can make mediocre pitchers look good.

We can barely measure that sort of thing in a way that is usable by WAR, there's still questions about dWAR and whether you need 2 or 3 full seasons, etc. Projections can't handle defense at all, they have to basically presume every team has a league-average defense and focus just on pitching and offense. If we really did have a league-average defense, we'd be in a lot of trouble.

Errors are easy to see, we all know that 4-out and 5-out innings lead to a lot of runs, but the Royals tend to give their opponents 8 or 9 "hard 3-out" innings, and our opponents usually give the Royals at least 2 "soft 3-out" innings per night. Those are innings where it wasn't really an error and they didn't really make a mistake, it would have taken a great play to make the out, but they didn't, so we've got a soft 3 outs to work with and do some damage. The other team doesn't get those, if you want to get on base against the Royals, you have to get a clear hit or take a walk.

We get into big trouble real fast if Cain cannot stay reasonably healthy. For as well as he projects on paper, I still contend that Dyson is a long-term defensive liability because of a lack of instincts (unless he moves to LF for extended play).

alnorth 02-05-2014 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jbwm89 (Post 10416235)
So basically we should include the pick we will get when Shields walks when evaluating "THE TRADE".

In that case, you need to devalue the pick by a couple years. Kinda like in the NFL draft we consider that next years 1st-rounder is worth this year's 2nd-rounder.

duncan_idaho 02-05-2014 04:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNutz (Post 10416248)
We get into big trouble real fast if Cain cannot stay reasonably healthy. For as well as he projects on paper, I still contend that Dyson is a long-term defensive liability because of a lack of instincts (unless he moves to LF for extended play).

Agree.

Cain's defense is a key part of the equation.

One of the benefits of having Gordon and Aoki on the corners is that each has above-average range for a player at his position. On days Cain does not play, Gordon/Aoki should be able to make up a little of the difference.

I couldn't be more in agreement with you about Dyson. He's fast, but he's not a very good outfielder outside of that skill. I'd argue that Bonifacio is just as steady in CF, with the added bonus of being able to play multiple positions.

They really could have easily found Boni 2 starts a week in CF, 1 start a week at 2B, 1 start a week in either LF or RF, and a start a week at 3B. That's basically full time work.

The infield defense should be excellent on an everyday basis. Omar Infante is an average defender, and he's the "worst" defender out of that IF group.

Fansy the Famous Bard 02-05-2014 04:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 10416276)
The infield defense should be excellent on an everyday basis. Omar Infante is an average defender, and he's the "worst" defender out of that IF group.

And yet, defensively Infante is still an upgrade over what we had previously at the position.

duncan_idaho 02-05-2014 04:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zeke (Post 10416290)
And yet, defensively Infante is still an upgrade over what we had previously at the position.

Oh, totally is an upgrade. Chris Getz, for all the acclaim Yost heaped on him, was nothing more than an average defender. And that really was because he was sure-handed. Bad range and weak arm.

Infante has a bit better range and a stronger arm but is maybe not as sure-handed.

Just hard to stand out when you're in an IF that features Hosmer at first, Escobar at short, and Perez behind the dish (all of whom are excellent), as well as Moustakas (who, when in shape, is above-average with the glove).

TLO 02-05-2014 07:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -King- (Post 10416218)
It's like Duncan and Alnorth speak a totally different language in this thread sometimes....

They're both awesome, and I'm glad we have them around. I get all my Royals news from this thread, and those two contribute a lot of information.

DeepSouth 02-06-2014 11:27 AM

Bonifacio was designated for assignment last Saturday. With only four days left before something has to be done with him, I'm surprised we haven't heard any rumors about his future. Anyone have any ideas?


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