This team doesn't have superstars. If we want to pump $30 million into the team, we aren't going to suck. Small market teams that pay out third contracts get destroyed by them.

Why should we suddenly abandon the strategy that got us to this point? Gordon might get 4/72, and Zobrist could get 3/45. If we can't find better value than that, and we can't re-sign Hismer and company, move them with a year left on their contracts and fatten up the farm system again. Losing Escobar or Salvy would crush this team. We were fine without Gordon and Zobrist for large portions of this season. We'll be fine without them.

Re: PECOTA

The system is good overall but has a few blindspots that just happen to be the Royals greatest strengths:

1) Bullpen excellence. PECOTA always predicts regression for relievers who have had great years, even if they have a history of performing that way. The Royals consistent excellence in the pen for several years running is something that PECOTA has always missed, and likely will continue to miss next season.

2) Defense. PECOTA thinks the Royals D is an outlier, and has predicted big regression each of the past two seasons, but it obviously hasn't happened.

3) HR-supressing factor. PECOTA keeps expecting the FIP and HR/FB rates of Royals pitchers to normalize, and it keeps not happening because of the ballpark (and other ballparks in the Central which also limit HR).

Re: Zobrist/Gordon

Re-signing them definitely is risky. Their age is a concern. One thing in both guys' favor is how well they take care of themselves. They're guys that are going to age well, if anyone will. The approaches - the patience and batting eye - also are things that age well.

Regarding Zobrist's defense, I don't know that this season tells us THAT much about his defensive performance. The knee injury he suffered in Oakland really hampered his movement, and could have brought those overall numbers down.

Even if he isn't a plus-plus defensive RF any more, I'd feel comfortable expecting him to be at least average (and we have high standards in KC - most of us felt that Rios was not a good defensive RF, but the same defensive metrics that loved Cain and Gordon also had Rios as an above-average RF with plus range).

Rios just looks shaky out there. And had a habit of misplaying in the highest leverage spots.

I disagree pretty heartily on trading Hosmer or Moustakas early or at all. This team has a window through 2017 with them, and Cain, and etc. Might as well roll with it. The rebuilding of the farm system can come in the draft after they leave, when KC stacks up compensation picks for all of those guys.

The window runs really nicely through 2017, when all the guys that came up in 2011 will exhaust their years of team control. If you can't extend any of those guys, so be it.

At some point, guys like Zimmer, Almonte, Starling, Bonifacio, Mondesi, will have to contribute. If you don't get a good bump from that "wave" of prospects, 2018-19 are going to be rebuilding years in all likelihood, anyway, where you're resetting for another big window 2-3 years down the road.

I agree a big Gordon contract would be hard to do and have some significant risk, but you must at least consider it, IMO. Same with Zobrist (who, on a three-year deal, would be a nice backup plan for Hosmer).

The fact that both have had leg injuries recently certainly doesn't make me excited about signing them. Gordon has been a very different player on the bases since he returned.

I'm a huge fan, he's a Royals HoFr, but the right move is to let him walk unless he takes a ridiculously bad offer in the 3/42 range.

I don't think we should trade them...mostly because I think we will still be contenders with them. I'm saying that we could move them in a fire sale if we collapse like the A's did with Zobrist.

Oh, gotcha. I've seen some prospect hounds (guys who make me look like a prospect hater, guys who thought giving up Brandon Finnegan and Cody Reed was a deathblow) suggest the Royals should try to refill the minor league coffers in 2017 rather than attempt to contend.

I'd be fine with moving those guys IF things collapsed and the team was obviously out of it. But I think this team is going to remain a title contender for each of the next two seasons, as long as Moore pushes a few key buttons in the offseason.

I get it. It's a really tough call, and one I'd need access to team medicals to make a decision about, personally. If the team lets them go, I get it. If the team brings them back (or one of them back), I get it.

I'll give Gordon a little leeway... he returned really early from that groin injury and seems to be rolling at about 85 percent, partially in an attempt to protect it from further injury. With a full offseason to recover, I would expect a full recovery from him.

I'd be surprised if they don't bring at least one of them back, though. The FA market for corner OF is not great, and I don't think Orlando/Dyson are full time answers for both spots (I think you can afford to fill one spot with a combo of those guys, but not both).

Bonifacio, Starling (And Mondesi, for that matter) are all still at least a good half-season of development at AAA away from being ready for the show, too. So not a lot of internal help coming/to fall back on.

KC would really be setting itself up for a letdown season if it enters next year hoping for some combination of Orlando/Dyson/ (and maybe Brett Eibner?) to adequately fill those important corner OF spots.

Reed was the guy in the Cueto trade I didn't want to lose. We'll also be a tad weaker than we maybe should be due to, somehow, losing out on the competitive draft lottery two years in a row.

Gold Glove Finalists are out, Royals on the list: Salvy, Hosmer, Escobar, Gordon

He's got big-time upside. He and Manaea are pretty similar in terms of ultimate upside. Manaea also closed the year really strongly for Oakland. If they can solve his control issues, they've got a potential monster starter on their hands (still worth it if KC wins the series, though, considering how vital Zobrist has been).

Weird. According to Fangraphs, Hosmer is the 17th-best qualified 1B in baseball, trailing such defensive stalwarts as Chris Carter, Carlos Santana, Jose Abreu, Miguel Cabrera, Adam Lind, and Lucas Duda, among others.

American League:

SS
Xander Bogaerts
Didi Gregorious
Alcides Escobar

2B
Jose Altuve
Brian Dozier
Ian Kinsler

3B
Adrian Beltre
Evan Longoria
Manny Machado

CF
Kevin Kiermaier
Mike Trout
Kevin Pillar

LF
Yoenis Cespedes
Brett Gardner
Alex Gordon

RF
Kole Calhoun
JD Martinez
Josh Reddick

1B
Eric Hosmer
Mike Napoli
Mark Teixeria

C
Jason Castro
Russell Martin
Salvador Perez

P
Sonny Gray
Dallas Keuchel
Mark Buehrle

Interesting with no Cain.

1B is the one position (aside from pitcher due to sample size) that I am most willing to set aside stats and allow people to vote based on the "eye test". Other positions we can do a pretty good job of classifying a play as routine, average, or difficult to not overly punish players for messing up a difficult play, but 1B is really difficult to properly classify defensive plays by difficulty.

AL CF defense is incredibly good right now... Just amazing.

CF is so stacked.