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The Franchise 02-27-2014 02:41 PM

It's more of a size to speed ratio....not just tall guys who are fast.

planetdoc 02-27-2014 02:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Frosty (Post 10457219)
I have serious doubts that Dorsey is just going to draft someone he likes with no input from Reid and what would fit in Reid's system.

Oh, I agree with you. Whenever they talk they say they have a shared philosophy. I think we can both agree what that philosophy is in regards to cornerbacks. I suspect that philosophy is the same for WR, but not sure.

Ragged Robin 02-27-2014 08:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OldSchool (Post 10456160)
Problem is, we're kind of in a bad spot unless someone falls to us that another team really really wants. Teams who want to trade up will most likely be shooting for the top 15 or top 20. We're just out of that range. I'm sure that someone is going to want to leapfrog us for a wr/safety if there is a run on them early.

Unless a team picking early wants to trade back up late in the round to pick up their guy for something like this year's and next year's 2nd or something like that.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Frosty (Post 10457175)
Of course, they also have the 6'3" Nelson and 6'1" Jones. Then you look at the WRs that he brought into KC in Avery and Jenkins and now the CFL guy. There doesn't seem to be a pattern with size. He does seem to like speed guys.

Yeah there doesn't seem to be a consistency unless Reid is telling him to pick up smaller speed guys. All the receivers we've picked up other than Hemmingway fit the little dood receiver profile.

OldSchool 02-27-2014 09:23 PM

There really is consistency in how they draft. Dorsey is a size-speed ratio guy for pretty much every position. Just look at our previous draft class and it's similar to what he has been a part of drafting before. Big guys who can move and run relatively fast, the smaller they are the faster they have to be. Of course that player has to have good production to go along with the speed/size, but Dorsey does make exceptions and is willing to take chances and a superior physical specimen (Fisher over Joeckel, Knile Davis over every RB that was left, Sanders Commings, small school Catapano, Travis Kelce and his character concerns, etc).

milkman 02-27-2014 09:36 PM

Seems there's some pigeon holing going on with very little samples to hole the pigeon with.

OldSchool 02-27-2014 09:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by milkman (Post 10458081)
Seems there's some pigeon holing going on with very little samples to hole the pigeon with.

Nah, I looked at the picks that he was involved with in GB as well. The vast majority of them were very similar to what he did with our picks this year.

OldSchool 02-27-2014 10:04 PM

Packers 1st picks spanning from 2005:

2005: Aaron Rodgers, QB, CAL: 6'2", 4.71 40
(2nd round pick was Nick Collins out of Bethune, he ran a 4.36 at 5'11" and 206 pounds)

2006: AJ Hawk, LB, Ohio State: 6'1", 248 pounds, 4.59 40

2007: Justin Harrell, DT, Tenn: 6'4.3", 300 pounds, 5.04 40 with a 1.67 10 yard split

2008: Jordy Nelson, WR, Kansas State: 6'2.5", 217 pounds, 4.51 40 with a 1.50 10 yard split

2009: BJ Raji, DT, Boston College: 6'1.4", 337 pounds, 5.12 40 with a 1.69 10 yard split.

2010: Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa: 6'5.3", 315 pounds, 5.20 40 with a 1.78 10-yard split
(His 2nd round pick was a 6'3" DE who weighed 294 pounds and ran a 4.87 40 with a 1.60 10-yard split)

2011: Derek Sherrod, OT, Miss. State: 6'5.3", 321 pounds, 5.18 40 with a 1.81 10-yard split. (2nd round pick was Randall Cobb who we all know is an explosive play-maker)

2012: Nick Perry, OLB/DE, USC: 6'2.6", 271 pounds, 4.55 40 with a 1.51 10-yard split

The majority of the Packers picks consisted of players that were similar to this. Our first draft class was consistent with this as well. I think it's safe to assume that, when it comes down to it, Dorsey actually does value height-speed-weight pretty highly when he is looking at prospects.

Frosty 02-27-2014 10:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ragged Robin (Post 10457985)
Yeah there doesn't seem to be a consistency unless Reid is telling him to pick up smaller speed guys. All the receivers we've picked up other than Hemmingway fit the little dood receiver profile.

Hemingway was a leftover Pioli pick.

Frosty 02-27-2014 10:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by milkman (Post 10458081)
Seems there's some pigeon holing going on with very little samples to hole the pigeon with.

Yeah, I don't know how much you can extrapolate from one draft. Dorsey was in GB but he didn't have final say.

OldSchool 02-27-2014 11:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Frosty (Post 10458190)
Yeah, I don't know how much you can extrapolate from one draft. Dorsey was in GB but he didn't have final say.

Still, it says something when he pretty much followed the same trend that they had going in GB. Plus, he was head of their scouting department so he had a ton of influence in who they selected, he just wasn't the one who actually made the final call. Dorsey gets a lot of credit for the players that GB has had success with, Director of College scouting from 2000-2012.

Now that he is making the calls himself, judging from his first year selections, he hasn't deviated from the trend that GB had going. It's not shocking that every player he selected was among the most explosive and athletic at their given positions when they were on the board.

Sanders was arguably the fastest FS prospect in that draft class. No other safety ran a 4.41 at that combine I think. Closest was Earl Wolff with a 4.42.

Frosty 02-27-2014 11:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OldSchool (Post 10458201)
Still, it says something when he pretty much followed the same trend that they had going in GB. Plus, he was head of their scouting department so he had a ton of influence in who they selected, he just wasn't the one who actually made the final call. Dorsey gets a lot of credit for the players that GB has had success with, Director of College scouting from 2000-2012.

Now that he is making the calls himself, judging from his first year selections, he hasn't deviated from the trend that GB had going. It's not shocking that every player he selected was among the most explosive and athletic at their given positions when they were on the board.

Sanders was arguably the fastest FS prospect in that draft class. No other safety ran a 4.41 at that combine I think. Closest was Earl Wolff with a 4.42.

Dorsey did a great job with UDFAs and picking up players off the scrap heap. However, I would feel a little better if the drafted players had been more productive. Hopefully most of it was just due to the injuries and that was just a freak thing.

OldSchool 02-28-2014 12:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Frosty (Post 10458213)
Dorsey did a great job with UDFAs and picking up players off the scrap heap. However, I would feel a little better if the drafted players had been more productive. Hopefully most of it was just due to the injuries and that was just a freak thing.

Yeah, I'm hoping that too. I saw good things from Knile Davis, Catapano, Kush, and Fisher later in the year. The real wildcards are Kelce and Commings. The rest at least showed flashes and improvement in their rookie year.

htismaqe 02-28-2014 07:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OldSchool (Post 10458271)
Yeah, I'm hoping that too. I saw good things from Knile Davis, Catapano, Kush, and Fisher later in the year. The real wildcards are Kelce and Commings. The rest at least showed flashes and improvement in their rookie year.

Fisher ended up in the tub. That's not showing improvement later in the year.

planetdoc 02-28-2014 08:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pestilence (Post 10457220)
It's more of a size to speed ratio....not just tall guys who are fast.

you make a good point. I think your correct.

There is an NFL Insider article (dont have access) talking about a size/speed formula.

Someone else created a Height Adjusted Speed Score (HASS), but I havent seen the formula.

This is the most detailed study I have found looking analyzing 816 wide receivers.

in that study, the author used an Explosive Power ratio
Quote:

a metric comprised of a player’s height, weight, vertical jump and broad jump. It attempts to quantify how much power and explosion a player can physically generate in his play.
along with other filters such as Speed Score, 3-cone time, and production.

Nice to look at, but dont think its all that accurate.

OldSchool 02-28-2014 02:32 PM

Not sure if any of you guys have read this article or if it's Q but:

Quote:

But it's also about the, ahem, "right 53," to coin a favorite Piolism. Which is where Saaty comes in. Or rather, Dorsey and Saaty. Decision Lens produces "decision-making" programs -- in the very simplest of terms, software that applies sabermetrics to the corporate world.

Who's the best leader for this group? What's the best use of our allocated resources? How can we get the most bang for our buck? A system that helps the A's interpret and homogenize their scouting reports could also be used to, say, help determine the next branch manager for a particular firm.

Dorsey was introduced to Saaty's work while acting as director of college scouting with the Green Bay Packers; the club instituted Decision Lens before the 2009 NFL Draft, and came away with defensive tackle B. J. Raji, linebacker Clay Matthews and tackle T.J. Lang in rounds 1 through 4.

"When he was with the Packers, he immediately understood the value of something like this," said Saaty, whose program the Chiefs integrated for the first time this past fall.


Even with a larger-than-expected increase in the salary cap for 2014 -- to roughly $130 million, NFL.com reported -- the Chiefs are projected to have just $6.79 million in cap room to play with, according to projections at OverTheCap.com. After radically overhauling the Kansas City roster last winter and spring, now Dorsey and coach Andy Reid must try to find a way to squeeze back into their skinny jeans again.

"I'm a big believer that you build your team through the draft," Reid told reporters in Indy on Thursday. "Free agency can be a bit of a tease at times, and I think you have to be real careful with it."

The fewer dollars you have to spend, the more particular you have to be with the cash at hand. You need pluggers. Glue guys.

"The kind of guys (in) the draft that are going to be high performers that can get good value," Saaty said. "We currently have a financial analysis tool that says, 'Here you pay this guy and here is what he does against your objectives.'

"How do you blend judgments with metrics? That's really what this is all about."


It's about playing the guitar with your teeth, then lighting it on fire. Now excuse Dorsey while he kisses the sky.
Seems like Dorsey is trying his hand at the NfL's version of moneyball.


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