It's blowfish.

Like I said, the only rational reason is if you think he roided up and broke his own body down because of it. There's obviously no proof he did, but he was playing during the height of the PED era. (If he did though, then you can kinda-sorta be justified in hating him, I guess)

I've had this argument with Sweeney-haters many times, and thats usually where they go if pressed. At this point, I'm tired of arguing over or defending the guy, I just move on.

Braniac's post was just awful. Carry on.

Very interesting article by Olney today (behind the inside paywall). Ervin Santana is basically screwed and probably should have figured out the best deal available during the week of the QO. Lots of teams are worried about his elbow (huh? Again with the elbow? None of us ever heard about this before) Next year, you'll probably start to see 2nd-tier free agents taking the QO.

Also, the Royals did try to trade Billy Butler, but they found out that full-time DH's have almost no value anymore, unless they are incredible hitters. AL teams generally do not want a full-time DH anymore, most of them prefer to rotate the DH spot around to keep their good-hitting catchers in the game and to give their other starters a half-day off.

The dream lives on.

So at this point, what are the chances we actually bring Santana back, if any?

We have a $12.5MM team option with a $1MM buyout in 2015 on Billy Butler. If we let him go some fans will cry about same old Royals letting their best players leave, but honestly I don't know if he's going to be worth it. This feels like a contract year to me, where Billy needs to prove that we should keep him on another year as a full-time DH.

How good does he have to be for you to pay him 12.5 in 2015? Would it be enough if he repeated 2012 (.882 OPS, a little over 3 WAR), or would he need to do better than that?

The general consensus is that the odds go up every day we get closer to Spring Training. After the Garza signing, someone here said the odds went from about 1 in a 1,000,000 to about 1 in a 1,000, and I would argue those odds have since gone up to around 1 in 100 (Still a longshot, but the odds are increasing moving in our direction).

This was explained literally thousands of times on this board during the season to the Royal fans who love Billy, but it never sank in. He's slow and he GIDP like crazy and he makes $8M and he hit only 15HR and you can platoon other regulars in that spot and get the same production. Yet our fans still continued to think he was Miggy Cabrera's peer. It was pathetic.


A Butler who hits like he did in 2012 with 300-29-110 or whatever is a valuable DH. But even then he only had a 3.0 WAR. Numbers don't lie.

$12.5M for Butters seems a bit too steep.

We are also making a horrendous error in judgment if we allow Hoch and Davis' contracts to dissuade us from making a serious run at Ervin. His signing turns this team from a wild card hopeful to a team that could make a serious run in the postseason.

8M is too steep.

He has to be 4/5ths Cabrera good. As frustrating as he can be in pressure situations, or his bad habit of GIDP as PB pointed out, he's still one of the better hitters on the team. If he plays this season at 2013's level or below, you pull the eject lever on his ass for 2015, fan favorite or no. He HAS to step up at the plate this season. It is his ONE JOB.

This is great news. I'm going to do my best not to get overly excited, but it's nice to know that the chance is looking better and better (no jinx, dammit). Santana returning with the guys we brought in would almost be fap worthy.

I was wondering when you'd chime in.

2013: Billy had the second highest WAR for a DH.

You've never responded to this point, nor do I expect you to. In addition, please point us to alternatives who would have outdone or matched Butler's production in 2013.

Billy exceeded the WAR of Prince Fielder and Victor Martinez for 2013, so as usual, your argument holds little to no factual merit (you are a professional at this by now).

Now, 8.5 million is a perfectly reasonable amount to pay Butler at his level of production, but 12.5 million is a different story.

If he hasn't signed a few days or so after pitchers and catchers report, then I think our odds will be at least 1 in 10 or 1 in 5 at that point. I agree its 1 in 100 right now, which means I am fully expecting him to sign somewhere this next week

If he doesn't, then it could mean that he has quietly reached a verbal agreement with the Royals to sign for 1 year, but not until after the regular season has started. The only way to make sure you don't get a QO is to wait till after opening day to sign on for the year.