Never align yourself with Prison Bitch. And if you do find yourself aligned with his viewpoint, seriously consider why you're wrong, because the odds are very, VERY high that you are.

"PROOF"

Forgot to carry the 7, dumbass.

For instance,

When Tom Brady last won an AFC Championship Game, he admitted he played terrible, and his team picked him up. I mean, it's a direct quote:

Must be nice to only have to play replacement level football and still have a 50/50 shot of winning.

I'm sorry that you're so pathetic as to fall back on an obviously horribly flawed analysis in order to try scoring clearly non-existent points.

Then again, you wouldn't be Hootie...

I most certainly do not.

But he parades around the Royals thread using WAR as the "be-all-end-all" yet, when I make a football thread with a WAR theme he berates me for it.

So, technically, I am not aligned with PB at all ... but I do agree with your assessment in that regard.

whoa whoa whoa

NATE SILVER, BACKED BY ESPN.COM, PRINTS HORRIBLY FLAWED ANALYSIS, BUT COLDHARDFOOTBALLFACTS.COM, A BOSTON WEBSITE WITH A BOSTON WRITER, IS GOSPEL WHEN IT COMES TO THE TOM BRADY / PEYTON MANNING DEBATE?

Hilarious.

Hahahahahahaha.

I get it, man. No matter how reeruned he comes off as a result, Hootie gotta Hootie.

It's all good. :thumb:

Brady is better in a dome because he has a 2 game sample size ... /coldhardfootballfacts.com

you're right

Nate Silver who has made a living using advanced statistics and partnered up with ESPN.com always has 'horribly flawed analysis.'

But Coldhardfootballfacts.com, a website clearly everyone has heard of and clearly isn't a Boston fan boy website that clearly isn't owned by a guy who writes for a Boston paper (oh wait, yes it is), has amazing factual evidence and amazing, well thought out analysis (minus the 'Tom Brady is better in a dome with his 5 game sample size')...

Nope.

Patriot fans aren't hypocrites at all!

JFC LMAO

You called on a site (ESPN) that came up with the abomination known as QBR in support of Silver's formula.

It's doesn't get much stupider than that.

I pay no attention to baseball threads, so I will take your word for it. Sounds like we have one thing we agree on.

The real problem for you here is that you posted this link to prove one thing -- that Brady's teams (absent Brady) have been better than Manning's teams (absent Manning).

The other thing the article "proves" is that Brady has outperformed his team's expected wins, while Manning has underperformed them. Specifically, Brady has gotten 1.2 MORE wins than ELO projected, and Manning has gotten 2.2 FEWER wins than ELO projected.

1.2 more wins and 2.2 fewer wins doesn't sound like much, but in the context of the number of games played, it's significant. Brady wins 5% MORE than he "should", and Manning wins 10% LESS than he "should".

So who is more clutch?

But let's put all that aside. I think it's basically all junk science. None of it holds any water at all with me.

That QBR thing is whacky. Hootie keeps mentioning Brady got an 8 QBR in one game, but if it's the game I think it is, Brady wasn't that bad. 2 TDs, 1 Int, 65% completion rating.

Maybe I'm looking at the wrong game, but seriously, if that results in a near-zero QBR, then QBR is kinda messed up. Unless 0 QBR is flatline average and you can get a negative score, or soemthing.

Note I'm not necessarily a huge fan of passer rating either. It also has issues.

I have tremendous respect for Silver's political analysis. I think he's a very bright guy.

This QB WAR thing though. I'm beyond skeptical.

BRady > Peyton in the post season. its not even close. If anyone thinks Peyton is better than brady in the post season then thats all you gotta know about their football intelligence and must grasp to statistics and not actually watching the game.. not only watching the game, but understanding what you are watching.

The issue with that is that you're comparing the QB to himself, essentially. If QB A and QB B play identically in the postseason, but QB A played better in the regular season, using that method would show that QB B was better in the postseason, when in reality, they played the same.

His second analysis shows those QBs against a replacement, rather than against their regular season selves. That's where the 18-8 vs 13-13 and 11-13 vs 8-16 comes from.