POND_OF_RED |
12-01-2022 12:31 AM |
From ESPN Article about why Netherlands can win it all and why they won’t:
Why they will win it all: They turn you over. Louis van Gaal's Dutch team is active. They lead the competition with the fewest passes allowed per defensive action (9.3) and despite leading for the majority of each group stage match, they started 29 possessions in the attacking third to opponents' 17. Midfielder Frenkie de Jong leads the team in ball recoveries, but the pressure is a full-team effort: Netherlands have commanded 57% of overall touches in the attacking third with a 57% possession rate.
They've got the raw defensive talent -- Virgil van Dijk, Nathan Ake, Jurrien Timber, Matthijs de Ligt -- to safeguard them while pressing heavily (goalkeeper Andries Noppert has been excellent, too), and they put the ball in more dangerous areas than opponents.
Why they won't: No creativity. For such an active team, the Dutch sure are stolid in attack. Despite all that possession in dangerous areas, they managed just 10 shots worth 0.7 xG against Senegal and two worth 0.1 against Ecuador; they were fortunate to win the former match and draw the latter, and if Cody Gakpo hadn't scored with his only shot in each match, they wouldn't have.
Gakpo, the increasingly sought-after PSV Eindhoven attacker, has scored three goals from four shots worth just 0.3 xG. The rest of his teammates have scored just two goals from 21 shots worth 2.5. They neither create high-quality or high-volume shots -- they averaged just 0.3 big chances created ("a situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score," as defined by Stats Perform) in the group stage; only two teams averaged fewer, and that will eventually become a clear issue if it does not change.
This makes their matchup with the United States an interesting one: the teams have a lot of the same strengths and same weaknesses.
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