You're right. I'm actually hoping for the Chiefs to trade back and grab him.

That type of statistical analysis is quite unique to baseball. I guess if it makes people feel better that they think Dorsey is doing something special, more power to them.

Me, I tend to look at things more realistically than that.

Now this I agree with.

We all hope the GM has a system that works. My feeling is that he should stick to the system and the assigned values rather than over pay for any player.

Beckham or Cooks... Call it a day.

I remember how pumped I was about the 04 class

I calculated the "Speed Score" for this yrs WRs.

Kniles Davis had the best in last yrs draft, and I think that Dorsey relies heavily on metrics when drafting. His 2013 draft picks were all workout/combine warriors.

Notables:

Abbrederis 95.1
Beckham 102.8
Benjamin 106.3
Bryant 110.6
Coleman 104.1
Cooks 107.5
Enunwa 114.8
Evans M. 109.7
Evans Q. 103
Fowler 104
Janis 114.8
Mathews 107.2
Moncrief 117.9
Watkins 109.6
Wilson 105

current chiefs based on combine:
Bowe 106.8
Avery 99.7
Jenkins 104.2
Hemingway 111.7
McCluster 81.7

http://www.kcchiefs.com/news/article...d-b286b23bbb55

Size & Speed
http://i.imgur.com/VVmWHR1.png

Here is a list of the top 20 regular season WR of 2013 by receiving yrds:
http://i.imgur.com/UrLOY6S.png

only 4 are under 6' tall. I am sure Dorsey noticed that too.

Problem with the guys you listed. All are inconsistent and display poor hands a lot of the time. There have been tons of Height-Weight-Speed guys who failed in the league because they couldn't do one thing, catch the ball consistently.

That's why Ted Ginn isn't a great WR.

Donnie Avery is no better than a #3 WR.

DHB is no better than a #3-4 and is at best a decoy at this point of his career.

Stephen Hill has sucked.

And the list goes on and on. Lots of speed and size is great, but it doesn't matter if they can't catch consistently and use their size to dominate.

Unfortunately, from what I've seen of them. Janis, Bryant, Moncrief, and Enunwa all currently fall in the DHB, Avery, DHB, etc. category.

I love speed and size in a prospect as much or more than anybody else, but I still wouldn't draft the guys you listed any higher than the 3rd (Moncreif & Bryant) or later.

Hemingway is a perfect example of why a "size/speed" metric isn't perfect. Yeah, the guy has very good size at 6'1", 230 lbs. and ran a 4.53 at the combine. He also has nice hands and runs good routes. However, you watch him on the field and he's got absolutely zero initial burst. Slow as shit.

It's why he's a great gunner on special teams as he can build up his speed and start moving over a longer field.

Avery and Jenkins are kind of like that too.

McCluster, while he ran a slower 40 time than Hemmingway, has much better initial quickness.

What you really want is a guy that has both. Beckham, Cooks, Watkins, Moncrief have that. (Personally, I think someone is going to get a real gem in Moncrief in this draft. Second round most likely, but I wouldn't be upset if he was the Chiefs first round pick.)

I'll have to take your word on it. I havent researched enough to say conclusively.

in general there have been alot of guys who failed in the league.

Dont think Ted Gin would have had a great speed score. Although he ran a forty at 4.38, he did it at only 178lbs. His 2013 drop % was 4.4

Avery has had a long career.

DHB was almost a 1k yr receiver in 2011. Although drops may be an issue for him, his real issue has been injuries. His 2013 drop % is 9.4

yes, stephen hill sucks.

I agree with you, but I think that is something he can work on. His 10yrd split of 1.54 isnt bad (i.e. quick enough). He had a great 3-cone.

I would agree about Jenkins, not Avery.

agree.

Guys who have a high speed score tend to have a low 10yrd split as well, which is a good indicator of quickness. Below are more stats of the top 20 receivers (by receiving yrds) in 2013. The average speed score (without Decker and D. Thomas whose info was not available) is 105.9, and the median is 106.1Drop info was found from sportincharts. Midgets are in yellow, and those players without info are greyed out.
http://i.imgur.com/nfMwy8W.png

I just dont think its a coincidence that most of the top receivers in the NFL have great speed scores and are tall. That combo probably has a greater likelyhood of turning into a great NFL wr than someone who doesnt have that combo. I'm guessing its because the bigger WR can create vertical seperation. Since the speed score is a combo of weight and speed, those with great speed scores probably have the ability to get off the line of scrimmage (avoid jams) and the speed to seperate. Being "bigger" (weight and height) also helps in the physicality of the game (i.e. the smaller guys probably get beat up more , which leads to injuries, and thus lower stats).

So, based on what dorsey has said (likes size/speed), his previous draft (workout warriors), draft rumours (chiefs raving about big wrs), and need to find a bowe replacement (he can be cut in 2015 for cap savings, and will be 31 at the start of the 2015 season):

1. he probably isnt interested in marquis lee (poor speed score, drop issues and injuries in 2013)

2. Cooks > Beckham

3. guys with a speed score over 105 (avg top 20 nfl wr) that he will look at that might be available when chiefs draft

Benjamin 106.3 (poor route runner, not quick, limited production)
Bryant 110.6 (inconsistent hands, 1354 yrds college career)
Cooks 107.5 (small, great everything else)
Enunwa 114.8 (1500 career yrds)
Janis 114.8 (inconsistent hands, great college production, small school)
Mathews 107.2 (great everything)
Moncrief 117.9 (great everything)

I would bet at least 1 of these 4 [enunwa, janis, mathews, moncrief) are chiefs....if the chiefs draft a wr.

This right here and I prefer Cooks based on this on the gauntlet drill at the combine. Notice how Beckham slows down and Cooks never down shifts:clap:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PNoPvnCUNZM

BINGO ! Not only will he be able to take a hit but deliver one as well and break some tackles unlike DMC.

And I think that this is where a guy like Beckham is the outlier against the "taller receiver" trend.

While "only" 5'11", he has close to 33" arms and 10" hands (giving him a catch radius of a player that is 6'5") along with an exceptional burst ability shown by his vertical of 38.5", a broad jump of 10'2" and his superb shuttle times of 3.94 seconds and 6.69 seconds in the 20 and 60 yard shuttles respectively.

His official 10 yard split in the 40 was 1.50 as well.

Add to that that he's exceptionally smooth and controlled on his routes, nails his breaks and has hands like vice grips as evidenced by:

http://usatthebiglead.files.wordpres...st-georgia.gif

It's why I've felt that he's the best receiver in this draft for a long time now. I feel that Odell Beckham has every single physical tool that a player needs to be a dominant #1 NFL wide receiver.

Right now, I'm having a hard time seeing him last past either the Jets or Baltimore, but if he does and he's there for the Chiefs at #23, the card would be at the podium before the commissioner is done announcing who's on the clock.

Who are the WR's that will available in the 3rd or 4th rounds?
I think we take DL/Pass Rusher with our first pick. Then with our 3rd and 4th rounds I feel like we will take OL and WR. Depending on who is there and so on.