I stand corrected.

The guy must make one hell of a good lasagna

You know who Id like to see them take a shot on for the practice squad?

He is sitting there without work right now after being cut by Miami

Micah Johnson...I think me and Milk are the only two that like the guy.

Looking at only '05 and '06, I'd say that teams have a 2% chance of landing a full time starter in the 7th round (a little higher if you want Cassel as a full time starter). Obviously when you hit, it's a great value (Succop), but it's not like it happens regularly.

Chiefs 7th round picks since 2000...

Javarris Williams
Jake O'Connell
Ryan Succop
Brian Johnston
Mike Merritt
Michael Allan
Jarrad Page
James Kilian
Jeremy Parquet
Kevin Sampson
Montique Sharpe
Willie Pile
Maurice Rodriguez
Shaunard Harts
Terdell Sands
Desmond Kitchings

If you count Page (who is currently a backup), the Chiefs have hit on 2 of their 12 7th round picks. That's a 12.5% success rate, and above the average (based on '05 and '06).

I wouldn't use the Chiefs of this decade as the standard bearers of NFL drafting.

In short, they've sucked ass, hence two winning seasons since 2000.

While I can't really disagree with anything you've said here (although I think Gilberry's top potential is a quality rotation), O'Callaghan currently tops my list of unwanted players. Let's cut both the "O'C's" and call it even.

Is an argument about 7th round picks really going on?

Usually good teams do get contributions from late round/UDFA players, no team is all high picks/high dollar FA's.

True, but I'm not really bored enough to go do much more data gathering. Someone ought to volunteer to grab the 7th round picks from 2000 - 2010 for the Ravens/Colts/Pats/Steelers, then grab for 4 perennial losers and do a more in-depth analysis. I should have fallen asleep hours ago.

If you're really going to do comparison you should do 6th,7th and UDFA and see how many contributing players get pulled out of what most people consider the afterthought area.

I think we're beyond arguing about it, and actually looking for some actionable numbers. Care to help?

Actually, I'm done for tonight, but I like this idea. Not something I'd be able to do tonight, but what would we consider the "value point" for a player from 6/7/UFA? Does the player have to stay with the team that drafted him to be considered a good pick? Are they considered of value just by making the roster for a certain number of years? Do they have to be a starter?

I'd be willing to do some more research, but considering most of these guys never make more than 3rd string, I wouldn't know enough about them beyond stat lines to value them.

James Harrison and Jeff Saturday were UDFA's, Arian Foster for Houston UDFA, Willie Parker was a UDFA..

I think Pierre Garcon was a 6th rounder...I would guess there's far more contributing guys picked in the afterthought areas that people realize.

I'm sure there are, the hard thing is determining how many and defining "contributing". There are 6 guys from 05-06 who started game 1 of 2010. I'd be curious to know the break down of round selected for all starters last week, and for a few weeks last season. Maybe we could put to rest some of the debate about how much each round is truly worth.

No - you were right. They only used one pick. The Chiefs traded their 2010 7th rounder for a 2009 7th round pick, which the used on O'Connell.

Trade details

They used their regular 7th rounder on the RB Williams (Succup was a compensatory pick).

Watch this...just the Colts

7 Pat McAfee
6 Pierre Garcon
6 Charlie Johnson
6 Antoine Bethea
6 Von Hutchins
6 Cato June

That's just draft picks since 2000 that have contributed to the Colts team from those rounds, Saturday was a UDFA, they got Lilja for numerous years the same way, also Gary Brackett..

Look at all those players the Colts have pulled from the afterthought area.

The colts have never been too concerned with surrounding manning with talent

It's still an example of if you know what you're doing you can pull contributing players from anywhere.

Most teams would shit their pants in joy if they got half that return on late picks.

[QUOTE=DaneMcCloud;7011402]I wouldn't use the Chiefs of this decade as the standard bearers of NFL drafting.

ROFL
sadly..replace of this decade with ever

hah!

and the legend stops growing to mythical proportions.

...

FTR I am 100% behind the notion that good teams find good players after round 4-5. We were just arguing 7th rounders because of how we hit on two in 5 years (Page and Succup) and how rare that actually is in the NFL

The talent evaluation in those later rounds right now is VERY important because we wont have a coaching staff like this forever...you know, that can actually develop talent.

This is why this draft was soo good IMO, I think we hit on damn near EVERY SINGLE PICK when a good draft by a good team nets you 3-4 good players at most (except for legendary drafts...) Its a damn shame Sheffield went down for the year, I liked what little I saw of the kid. Especially at the senior bowl.

Shit, every pick could turn out to be a damn STUD

Eh. Maybe. Or maybe they're just more willing to give these guys a shot because they are cheap. And maybe some luck involved....Melvin bullitt was not a good college football player.

UDFA are every bit as valuable as 7th round picks...

7th round picks are basically first dibs on the UDFA...

so are 6th round picks...

No denying the value...

But flip a coin 10 times and get heads 10 times or BUST

Von Hutchins had one season as a starter (15 games in '07 for the Texans). This was his last season. He started 1 game in '04 for the Colts, and only played in 3 games in '05 before heading to Houston. Do we really call this a value pick for Indy?

Regardless, I think the only way to get a true relational value is to break them out by team / by round. We should compare all 7's with other 7's, etc.

If I recall correctly, anyways...

the Chiefs traded a 2010 7th for the 2009 7th to get O'Connell...

I doubt it. I've posted that before and it is still said all the time that two picks were used on O'Connell.

We're not talking late round, we're talking 7th round. I'd like to expand it to all rounds, but we can't "muddy the waters" by mixing the rounds, otherwise you just end up with watered down data.

Where's cdcox when you need him?!

posts 636 and 653 agree with you

VINDICATION!!!

Can't bother letting the truth get in the way. Kind of a common theme for CP.

yeah I do remember the drafturbators being pissed we traded a 2010 7th for a 2009 7th and took Jake O'Connell because of all the great "talent" still on the board and because how valuable 7th round picks are...

I do this with them every year...

Mecca talks about how great the Packers are at drafting...

I post their decade long streak...which is about as abysmal as the Chiefs (minus Aaron Rodgers)...

and he shells up and pretends the debate never happened...

or how the Colts are a terrible example because Peyton Manning could throw to Phil Clauster and make him a pro bowl receiver...and make Clay Wendler look like a quality LG...

What a let down. Can I get my 30 minutes back? All of that after a Chiefs win? Jesus ****.

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showp...&postcount=123

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showp...0&postcount=59

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showp...01&postcount=5

CutCut a 7th rounder. This is a big deal. It was a bad pick even though he has earned a roster spot 2 years in a row which puts him in the top 10% of players drafted in the 7th round.

I'll tell you who would have been a good value in the 7th if he had fallen to us; Vernon Ghoulston.

ROFL

This needs to be saved.

that makes 3 of us
Micah > Mays

Yeah, my bad.

I mis-remembered.

You're the Man, Boss!