Quote:
Originally Posted by eazyb81
(Post 7472996)
And Casey fell off a cliff after his first two years - that is hardly the norm. I think you are heavily discounting Butler's age, pedigree, and bat, and only looking at the HR total to lump him in with Casey.
As long as he keeps his OBP high and continues to smash doubles, Butler will be a fantastic and very valuable hitter whether he hits 40 HR or not.
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He hardly fell off a cliff.
23 and 24 were his 'growth' seasons and looked very similar to Butlers.
25, 26 and 27 had him battling injuries through most of those seasons. 28, 29 and 30 were all good seasons with his age 29 year being arguably the best of his career. I have no idea how 'steroids' came up apart from KevB making shit up to support his boy. Casey's career arc perfectly matches a standard ol' player; his numbers tailed off around 30 years old because that's what players built like he was tend to do. I'd imagine Kev never actually watched Casey swing a bat but feels qualified to judge anyone that played in the 90s.
And I'm not focusing on the HRs at all, but those are the easiest fit. I watched Casey all those years; recall I'm a Cardinals fan. He was a very 'professional' hitter. He was a gap to gap guy that hit doubles that would occasionally clear the fence - sound like anyone you know? He had a solid batting eye and low K totals. He was quite a bit faster than Butler, but played the same kind of game (doubles, station to station running).
Casey had a very level swing that just didn't generate the backspin or loft needed to make him a prolific HR hitter. It allowed him to keep the barrel in the hitting zone longer and keep his K totals relatively low despite not being blessed with hitters wrists like a guy like Vladdy. With that swing plane, your HRs tend to just be line drives that scrape over the wall. I don't care how strong you are, without putting backspin on the ball, that's a very very difficult thing to do and isn't likely going to happen more than 25-30 times/season.
Butler's swing is very similar. As is his approach at the plate.
I know nobody likes to be realistic about their prospects, but I'd bet any amount of money that Billy Butler's career comes far closer to Sean Casey's than Edgar Martinez. And that's not an insult, Casey was a 3-time AS and a key component to some very solid Reds teams. Had he stayed healthy, he'd have been thought of more prominently.
Would you prefer I compare him to Mike Lowell? Maybe Aubrey Huff? John Olerud?
Those are all names you could pretty much put in the same hopper. There's a little variation between them (Casey to the low side, Olerud to the high), but those are the kinds of guys Billy Butler is likely to become.