| KChiefs1 |
03-11-2011 11:37 PM |
My Projections of The Future Stars of the Royals:
http://centralinfocus.blogspot.com/2...ic-hosmer.html
Quote:
Prospect Profile: Eric Hosmer
Profile: 1B - 6'4" - 215lbs -BT:L - TH:L - 2011 Age: 21
Tools:
• Hit: 60-65
• Power: 60-70
• Eye: 45-60
• Range: 50-60
• Hands: 50-60
• Arm: 55-65
• Run: 40-45
Background:
The Royals first round pick, and the third overall in the 2008 draft, Hosmer signed an utterly massive 6m bonus out of high school. Negotiations went down to the wire but the Royals were finally able to make the signing and he did get a handful of plate appearances before the season ended. Unfortunately, he got off to a poor start in pro ball and struggled in 2009 before having LASIK surgery in the off season. In 2010, he was a totally different hitter, proving the obvious - seeing the ball is an important component in being able to hit the ball.
As a scout, when you're looking at someone you want to see hit for consistent power, (besides the obvious hand/bat speed) you want a guy who does a good job hitting over his back knee. That's a good point of strength and allows a hitter to keep his weight back while helping him get lift and torque by leaning back over that knee. You also want to see him get his butt/hips all the way through, and his hips presented on contact without having his shoulder fly open.
Hosmer does these things and more brilliantly. His swing is simple and easy to repeat without wasted motion. He keeps his hands in well, and presents the bat quickly. He doesn't pronate his front knee or clear his shoulders earlier than he has to and stays on top of the ball phenomenally well. All of which helps to explain how he pairs his plus power with impressively low strikeout rates.
Defensively, Hosmer moves well and has much better speed than you'll typically find from most first basemen. He does a good job ranging to his left, has solid hands, and is adept at making the picks which should help make him a plus defender at first. His speed has also translated into some solid steal numbers in the minors, though I don't expect that to translate into more than a handful of steals per year at the next level.
Performance Analysis:
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 200px" border=1 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 align=center><THEAD><TR><TH scope=col>Year</TH><TH>Age</TH><TH>Level</TH><TH>PA</TH><TH>AVG</TH><TH>OBP</TH><TH>SLG</TH><TH>OPS</TH><TH>wOBA</TH><TH>ISO</TH><TH>BABIP</TH><TH>LD%</TH><TH>BB%</TH><TH>K%</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR><TD>2009</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>A</TD><TD>327</TD><TD>.254</TD><TD>.352</TD><TD>.382</TD><TD>.734</TD><TD>.340</TD><TD>.129</TD><TD>.314</TD><TD>14%</TD><TD>13.5%</TD><TD>24.3%</TD></TR><TR><TD>2009</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>A+</TD><TD>107</TD><TD>.206</TD><TD>.280</TD><TD>.299</TD><TD>.579</TD><TD>.273</TD><TD>.093</TD><TD>.257</TD><TD>12%</TD><TD>8.4%</TD><TD>22.7%</TD></TR><TR><TD>2010</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>A+</TD><TD>375</TD><TD>.354</TD><TD>.429</TD><TD>.545</TD><TD>.974</TD><TD>.437</TD><TD>.191</TD><TD>.382</TD><TD>7%</TD><TD>11.7%</TD><TD>12.0%</TD></TR><TR><TD>2010</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>AA</TD><TD>211</TD><TD>.313</TD><TD>.365</TD><TD>.615</TD><TD>.980</TD><TD>.431</TD><TD>.303</TD><TD>.310</TD><TD>21%</TD><TD>7.1%</TD><TD>13.8%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Picking on Hosmer is hard, he makes phenomenal contact and has big time power, but there are a couple concerns. First, he doesn't draw an ideal number of walks, partly because he is such a phenomenal contact hitter. That didn't effect him last year, but I foresee some struggles as he tries to make the adjustment to MLB pitching. His power might not translate immediately. The other concern is his LD rate, which has been far from ideal most of the time. He's going to want to learn to lay off some of the borderline stuff, and try to hit more line drives, which should help his BABIP and therefor, his batting average.
Projection:
A really, really good hitter who might take a while to adjust to the MLB if rushed too quickly. Not sure who I'd compare him to, but he looks like a .300/.370/.520 guy waiting to happen.
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http://centralinfocus.blogspot.com/2...wil-myers.html
Quote:
Prospect Profile: Wil Myers
Profile: OF - 6'3" - 190lbs -BT:R - TH:R - 2011 Age: 20
Tools:
• Hit: 50-70
• Power: 55-65
• Eye: 55-70
• Range: 50-60
• Hands: 50-60
• Arm: 55-65
• Run: 50-60
Background:
Another product of Dayton Moore's aggressive strategy of being willing to pay top dollar for any high-end talent that falls to him, the Royals were able to snag Myers in the 3rd round after teams passed on him on concerns about his signing demands. In short, he wanted to be paid like a Top-10 pick or he'd go to college. No one else had the courage to meet those demands, but the Royals did, and for 2m they've bought themselves a elite hitting talent.
Myers has a very aggressive swing. His stance to start is short and open, back elbow held high. But when his actual swing starts he has a long (not high) and stride. Either way, the stride really opens up his hips. For some hitters such a long stride can throw off their balance, but Myers is very athletic and does a good job transferring his weight into his swing. He doesn't hit over his back knee the way you'd like, which is a partial by product of his elongated stride. It's not something I'd advise to anyone, but for Myers, who has exceptionally quick hands, and a powerful uppercut swing, it works.
Still, for as amazing a hitter as he's been, he's probably not maxing out his abilities in terms of mechanics. I'm not saying I'd tinker until they stop working, or IF they stop working. But between his stride and a swing that can get a bit long at times, there are areas available for improvement.
A shortstop in high school, the Royals thought his talents would translate well behind the plate and decided to try to move him there. Unfortunately the move didn't work out as well as hoped and this off season the Royals finally made the decision - one that's been anticipated for some time - to move Myers out from behind the plate to the outfield. While the decision will reduce his value on the defensive end and from a positional/replacement standpoint, it will speed up his arrival to the Majors, given that his bat was so far ahead of his defensive skills.
Given Myers good, but not great speed and solid arm he projects better in right field than center or left and he should have the tools to allow him to make that transition fairly easily. His speed, especially for a catcher, has always been solid to good and that figures to play up as well now that he's out from behind the plate and he could end up as a 15-20 steal guy at the Major League level.
Performance Analysis:
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 200px" border=1 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 align=center><THEAD><TR><TH scope=col>Year</TH><TH>Age</TH><TH>Level</TH><TH>PA</TH><TH>AVG</TH><TH>OBP</TH><TH>SLG</TH><TH>OPS</TH><TH>wOBA</TH><TH>ISO</TH><TH>BABIP</TH><TH>LD%</TH><TH>BB%</TH><TH>K%</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">2009</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">18</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">RK</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">80</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">.426</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">.488</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">.735</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">1.223</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">.527</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">.309</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">.490</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">17%</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">11.3%</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">22.1%</TD></TR><TR><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">2010</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">19</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">A</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">294</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">.289</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">.408</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">.500</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">.908</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">.416</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">.211</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">.335</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">17%</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">16.3%</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">22.7%</TD></TR><TR><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">2010</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">19</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">A</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">247</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">.346</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">.453</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">.512</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">.966</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">.434</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">.166</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">.411</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">17%</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">15.0%</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">19.0%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
He has thoroughly dominated every level he's been at despite being young for those levels. Pick an area and he's at least good, and in most, he's exceptional. His LD rate suggests there is room to barrel a few more balls, and his strikeout rate could get a improve, but you're nitpicking at that point. He hits for tons power, especially given that he was only 19 last year and he's only going to get bigger and stronger. He's posting insane BABIP marks because everything his bat makes contact with gets pulverized. And for good measure he stole 11 bases in 2010.
I'd love to be able to give you something to criticize, but it just isn't there.
Projection:
His tools are phenomenal, above average to plus is every area. There have been a lot of Jayson Werth comps and they make sense, both because of the fact that they are both now converted catchers, and because of their all-around game. The difference is that Myers has a chance to be a better bat.
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http://centralinfocus.blogspot.com/2...john-lamb.html
Quote:
Prospect Profile: John Lamb
Profile: RHP - 6'3" - 195lbs - BT:L - TH:L - 2011 Age: 21
Repertoire:
• FB 90-92: Plus location, lacks ideal movement, or velocity (55-60)
• CV 78-82: Inconsistent velocity, lacks ideal depth, good rotation and late break. (50-65)
• CH 82-84: Good feel and well located. (55-65)
Background:
A Steal. That's that John Lamb was. A projected first or second round talent during his junior year of high school, Lamb broke his elbow in a car accident and missed the entirety of his senior year. As a result he slid all the way to the <STRIKE>6th</STRIKE> 5th round where Royals took him as the closing piece to what is looking like an epic 2008 draft. Then, despite having the talent to go to college and have a successful career while rebuilding value, the Royals somehow signed him for a relatively paltry $165,000.
Lamb doesn't have fellow prospect Mike Montgomery's ideal size, but Lamb isn't a bad specimen in his own right at a well rounded 6'3". Despite lacking Montgomery's height, or the his ability to throw in the mid to high 90s, Lamb has a gorgeous motion of his own that he repeats easily, allowing him to throw both consistently and with command. He uses his lower half well and doesn't need to overload his shoulder or arm to create velocity. Yet he consistently works in the 90-92mph range and carries that velocity deep into games. His easy motion has kept him injury free and made him something of a MiLB workhorse as he threw 147 innings in 2010, a lot for a MiLB pitcher.
He compliments his low 90s fastball with a very solid changeup that'll fade hard on righties. He located the pitch well and shows good feel and consistent arm motion, frequently catching righties out front, then busting them in with a fastball or curve on the next pitch. It shows an understanding and feel for pitching. Against lefties he prefers the curveball which isn't as strong an offering as his changeup, but while it lacks ideal depth, he locates it well and it's tight rotation and late break make it tough to pick up. I think the pitch still has a lot of projectability in it.
One thing Lamb does struggle with, and this might be my biggest complaint, is movement on his fastball. The pitch is relatively flat and as a result, his GB rates at the MLB level are likely to be somewhat below average. It also seems to affect his willingness to attack hitters inside with the pitch.
Performance Analysis:
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 200px" border=1 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 align=center><THEAD><TR><TH scope=col>Year</TH><TH>Age</TH><TH>Level</TH><TH>IP</TH><TH>K/9</TH><TH>BB/9</TH><TH>GB%</TH><TH>HBP</TH><TH>WP</TH><TH>ERA</TH><TH>FIP</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR><TD>2009</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>RK</TD><TD>27.1</TD><TD>8.23</TD><TD>2.96</TD><TD>43%</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>3.95</TD><TD>4.48</TD></TR><TR><TD>2009</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>RK</TD><TD>47.1</TD><TD>10.02</TD><TD>2.40</TD><TD>46%</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>3.70</TD><TD>3.10</TD></TR><TR><TD>2010</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>A</TD><TD>40.0</TD><TD>9.68</TD><TD>3.83</TD><TD>37%</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>1.58</TD><TD>3.20</TD></TR><TR><TD>2010</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>A+</TD><TD>74.2</TD><TD>10.85</TD><TD>1.81</TD><TD>48%</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>1.57</TD><TD>1.69</TD></TR><TR><TD>2010</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>AA</TD><TD>33.0</TD><TD>7.09</TD><TD>3.55</TD><TD>46%</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>5.45</TD><TD>3.87</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Lamb steam rolled through both level of A ball, and obliterated the Carolina League's hitters before getting slowed up at AA. Of course as at just 20 years old, he's pitching well below the average age of his competition and his stuff was still quite effective. Lamb's K rates have always been average/plus and he's shown solid command throughout his MiLB tenure. His greatest weakness is, and remains ground ball rates. They're solid in the minors but project as more neutral/fly-ball prone at the MLB level.
Projection:
I'm not as high on Lamb as most, but that's more technical than anything. He's a very good pitcher with three pitches that, in my opinion, he could use in the Majors tomorrow if the Royals wanted to go that way with him even though he definitely has areas he can work on. Pretty much a lock as a #2 who could climb with improved fastball movement or depth on his curve.
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http://centralinfocus.blogspot.com/2...-odorizzi.html
Quote:
Prospect Profile: Jake Odorizzi
Profile: RHP - 6'2" - 175lbs -BT:R - TH:R - 2011 Age: 21
Repertoire:
• FB4 92-94: Straight and hard, tends to leave it up. (50-55)
• FB2 90-92: Plus run, attacks with the pitch, and commands it well. (60-65)
• CV 79-81: Big 11/5 break. Breaks a bit early. (45-60)
• SL 81-82: Slurvy and not projectable right now. (30-35)
• CH 82-83: It has a little sink, needs to improve his feel. (40-45)
Background:
The Brewers took Odorizzi, an athletic pitcher who played shortstop and pitched out of high school with the 32nd overall pick in the 2008 draft. He signed quickly for just over one million and the Brewers immediately sent him to their Arizona League affiliate where he got his feet wet and immediate began showing his promise. He's a hard worker and has fantastic mound presence. A battler who isn't easily intimidated.
Odorizzi has a simple and clean delivery and he repeats it well, helping him throw for consistent location. Still, he does tend to get low in his delivery and doesn't pitch with great plane. He also has a tendency to try and overthrow his fastball and he'll leave his share of pitches up which has made him a bit fly-ball prone.
Like most pitchers, Odorizzi throws two fastballs. Both pitches project well, but I prefer his two-seamer because, though he throws the four-seamer with good velocity and command, the pitch doesn't ride and he seems to leave it up more than the two-seamer. The latter pitch he seems to be more comfortable with and he'll pitch with it more than the four-seamer, which he just throws. His confidence in the pitch shows and he uses it's strong run to back door hitters and saw of righties. I see the two-seamer as a legitimate plus offering.
Of his off speed stuff, I like his curveball more than the slider he'll show or his changeup, which needs more refinement. He'll throw the curve as an out pitch and it gets plus depth with 11/5 action. For the most part he does a good job finishing the pitch though like many young pitchers his age he sometimes does not and he can lose his location and bite. With more consistency and tighter rotation the pitch could be extremely strong.
Performance Analysis:
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 200px" border=1 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 align=center><THEAD><TR><TH scope=col>Year</TH><TH>Age</TH><TH>Level</TH><TH>IP</TH><TH>K/9</TH><TH>BB/9</TH><TH>GB%</TH><TH>HBP</TH><TH>WP</TH><TH>ERA</TH><TH>FIP</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR><TD>2008</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>RK</TD><TD>20.2</TD><TD>8.27</TD><TD>3.92</TD><TD>41%</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>3.48</TD><TD>4.07</TD></TR><TR><TD>2009</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>RK</TD><TD>47.0</TD><TD>8.23</TD><TD>1.72</TD><TD>49%</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>4.40</TD><TD>2.90</TD></TR><TR><TD>2010</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>A</TD><TD>120.2</TD><TD>10.07</TD><TD>2.98</TD><TD>46%</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>3.43</TD><TD>2.93</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Odorizzi spent his first two seasons working on his mechanics in Rookie Ball, and made strides across the board. Then in 2010 the Brewers moved him up to A ball and he took his already strong game to the next level, setting a career marks in innings and strikeout rate, topping ten-per-nine and paired that with strong command and a solid ground ball rate. While that ground ball rate works in the Minors it's likely to trend toward league average or perhaps even slightly fly-ball prone at the next level. How his strikeout rate holds up as he advances will depend on improvements to his curve and changeup.
Projection:
His raw stuff is good but inconsistent right now. He also looks to be somewhat fly-ball prone. He's got #2 stuff and for now I think that's where I feel more comfortable with my projection. Not convinced he'll make it all the way there though.
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