Expectations and Alex Smith
Just curious. Inspired by the ongoing thread about "Geno fan" expectations, and I'm curious what the thinking is on the other side of the fence. What do people expect out of Alex Smith over the next, let's say, 2-5 years? Specifics, even, yardage and TDs, wins and losses, offensive rankings, etc. This is not a thread with an agenda, I'm genuinely curious what people think, so let's try to keep this from turning into snipe thread #368.
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I expect the last 19 years of Chiefs football... Mediocre, no playoff wins, football. His actual numbers don't interest me one bit.
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People will literally be posting "Dammit, Cassel" and "you suck, Cassel" and "**** you, Cassel" in game threads.
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He is going to get hurt.
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YEAR ONE
6 career starts before going on IR. 1-5 in those starts. 900 yds., 5 TD, 8 INT. YEAR TWO 10 career starts before going on IR. 4-6 in those starts. 1200 yds., 8 TD, 10 INT. YEAR THREE Crack Whore YEAR FOUR Dead from AIDS |
In other news his wife is smoking hot.
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not much
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3200 yards 19 td 11 int 60% cr
7-9 |
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He will die slowly from cancer. |
This my friends is a look into the future of our franchise:
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Rex Grossman?
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Just to give mine, I expect that in 2013 Alex will play 14-15 games, complete around 64% of his passes for a bit over 3,000 yards, throw maybe 17-18 TDs against 9-10 INTs. I expect that we'll start the year trying to be pass-happy with Alex and it won't work (hence the 9-10 picks). I expect a trajectory much like when we "discovered" Priest Holmes in 2001 and began to run the offense through him as the season progressed (although I do think Trent Green was a better QB than Alex will be). Things will settle down and I expect that Jamaal Charles will have a career best in total yardage, and the Chiefs will be top 10 in rushing, while bottom 10 in passing. I expect Dwayne Bowe to be underutilized, with most of the focus on short passing to backs and slot receivers, although he'll still manage his requisite 800-1000 yards despite that. I think Donnie Avery may have a second consecutive career year, again pushing 800 yards. I expect that we'll all see Reid try to incorporate McCluster into the offense, and it still won't work. End result is 7-8 wins, with a lot of losses under 7 points (the defense is going to be pretty good), so close but not quite there for a wild card. I expect Alex Smith to get his extension after this season (if he doesn't get it before that).
Then in 2014 I expect Alex Smith to have what will be, for him, a career year. 65% passing for 3500 yards, 20 TD, 6 INT. Jamaal Charles (or a backup, he may be run into the ground by season's end) will post another career year. The passing offense's rank will rise into middle-of-the-league, while the rushing offense will remain top-5. The defense will be a bit better, giving us some victories in close games we lost in 2013. The team will win 9-10 games and make the playoffs, where they'll lose a low scoring wild card game to a team they should beat (or may have beaten during the season). '15-'17 will be more of the same, falling somewhere between 7-9 and 11-5 every year, 3000-3500 yards annually for Alex, probably not much more than 20 TDs in any season. We'll be back to full martyball, basically, with everything centering around defense and running game, although that's obviously counter to Andy Reid's career trends. I think it's possible we win a playoff game or two. I don't think we'll be a super bowl contender, although there have been fluky wins by teams in the past, so anything's possible. |
75 percent chance we see Keg's scenario.
25 percent chance Alex Smith is worse than Cassel and we LOL so hard. |
The Jags are closer to a playoff berth with Gabbert than we are with A Smith.
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His replacement to phase him out quickly. Will be on the roster before the end of his second season here. That should say enough, I think.
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I'll take a risk here, and I will be called a "true fan," but I think, depending on the draft and barring injury, we will be:
11-5 Alex has: 65% completion 3500 yards passing 20 TDs 7 Ints I think Charles will be a big benefactor from the switch to Reid's offense and will have over 2,000 all purpose yards. I also think with Alex's efficiency (some would say game management) our defense will be vaulted into the top 15 in the league, perhaps top 10. I believe we will win at least one playoff game. If Smith is injured, then all bets are off.... Edit: I didn't see Keg's post/prediction when I made this one.... |
I expect a Cassel-esque performance of garbage QB play that will occasionally spike upwards to "pretty good" once Smith ends up on the hotseat.
Those spikes will save his job for about three years. Eventually, Andy Reid will be sacked, we will have this conversation in four years about how it was damn time given his unwavering support for Smith. He will then be replaced by somebody like John Harbaugh, who will immediately trade for the best backup in the NFL and sign him to a four year extension. Season ticket sales will skyrocket in year 1 before hitting a new low by year 4. Four years later, Harbaugh will be axed and we'll all wonder why he never gave the backup QB he traded for any competition. At that point, Peyton Manning should be flaming out of his first head coaching job. We'll probably hire him up. Mannig will immediately trade for the NFL's best backup QB that year and sign him to a 4-year extension. Season ticket sales will skyrocket in year 1 before hitting a new low by year 4. Four years later, Manning will be axed and we'll all wonder why he never gave the backup QB he traded for any competition. He will then be replaced by Dda;lkfj;alkdfalkdjf Wjepofrajf2jojafl who will immediately will trade for the NFL's best backup QB. Season ticket sales will skyrocket in year 1 before hitting a new low in year 4. Four years later, Dda;lkfj;alkdfalkdjf Wjepofrajf2jojafl will be axed and we'll all wonder why he never gave our QB any real competition. |
He is 29 and we basically gave up a first round pick for him and we are paying him 10 million dollars in 2013.
He needs to hit the ground running and play at a high level right away. |
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This Mark castle jr :doh!: |
Yay, we traded 2.34 and a second next year for a "known commodity," Otherwise known as a mediocre game manager of a QB.
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Damn sad but true.:# |
I think if you reversed the situation, Cassel was in San Francisco with Harbaugh and Alex Smith was in KC with Haley, the outcomes would have been almost exactly reversed as well.
Cassel would of looked better only to be replaced and Smith would of been destroyed. |
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Trading for Alex Smith is a "win-now" move, so I expect them to win right out of the gate. And not just in the regular season - there better be some playoff wins mixed in there. Now, that's what should happen, based on the move itself. What I expect will happen? Dink. Dunk. Play it safe or take a sack. Hope the running game and/or defense carries the load. Pretty much exactly what we've seen the last 4 years, but with more accuracy in the short passing game. Yawn. |
Some points:
--Andy Reid has always been able to get more out of QBs than other coaches, and that is why I wanted him to begin with. --Andy Reid is not a play not-to-lose coach - we will throw a LOT. --Andy Reid seems to REALLY have wanted Alex Smith. Put all those together, it seems clear to me that Reid thinks has a plan for Alex Smith, and considers him a franchise quarterback. Alex Smith does not have an elite arm, but does have an elite brain (40 wonderlic). If I had to guess, I'd say Reid is tired of all the turnovers he got with Vick, and will run an offense like Gruden and Callahan did with Rich Gannon, and we will throw it a LOT more than you guys think. I'm not saying it's going to be successful, just arguing that we will not play not-to-lose crap. |
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You are a ****ing idiot. |
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ELITE BRAIN http://uranus.ckt.net/~gochiefs/elitebrain.gif |
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I'm expecting him to be about like Kyle Orton, but without the facial hair.
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I think Alex Smith is going to break apart mid~season & in mid~air.
Someone should start an expectation thread for Chase Daniel. I'd bet Chase can out play Alex Smith in preason but no competition to win the job. |
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as an opposing fan I really don't know what to expect from kc next year. New front office, new coaching, new QB, a high degree of roster turnover. All this makes for way more questions than answers. I know what Alex Smith brings to the table but that was with the Niners, I know what Reid brings to the table but that was with Philly. Mixing the two together along with a new coaching staff hampers me from making any grand prognostications. So here you go:
8-8 So, better than last year but not a playoff team. This record reflects one thing-I have no idea what to expect and it's about as middle of the road as I can come up with. |
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so it might not be a 1st round pick but there is going to be 1st round talent there when the pick is made, which is all that really matters. |
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"Elite Brain."
LMAO LMAO LMAO That goes in the lexicon with "Designed Sacks." |
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Second round picks with first round talent, but because there is only 32 1st round picks some will fall out of the 1st and be picked very early in the 2nd. It's really not that complicated. |
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THEN THOSE DUMBASSES PULL THE "HERP DERP WHY DO YOU THINK YOU KNOW MORE ABOUT THE NFL THAN DORSEY AND REID? YOU ARE JUST A GUY WHILE THAT IS THEIR JOB! I WILL DEFEND EVERYTHING THEY DO NO MATTER WHAT!" CARD. |
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Unless there is some new math I haven't heard of where 34 = 32. |
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Why would you think a team with Alex Smith would hit league average in passing ANYTHING?
He averaged less than 190 yards passing last year.... |
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no, people don't think there are any top 8 picks this year. It's the elite talent that is missing. It's a valuable pick and we flush that shit away by overpaying for Cassel's brother. Went got bent over in the trade and losing that pick hurts. |
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He has nothing relevant to at any point and time when he had a coach with a winning record as a head coach. None. ANd he wouldnt dare post them, because most of the plays are smart plays. |
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hey ... who knows, maybe Reid will have the WCO short passing game going so well it could be handled easy. |
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http://i.imgur.com/jXxQWcj.gif http://uranus.ckt.net/~gochiefs/alexsucks13.gif http://uranus.ckt.net/~gochiefs/alexsucks7.gif |
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Gonna be the same shit. |
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If Cassel can win 10, so can Smith.
I don't expect much more than that. |
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THose are my favorites. |
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Clay, if you wanted to because you are this big of a tool, you could pull up gifs of any qb in the nfl making a stupid play or ten. is that your perception, that the tom bradys of the world dont make mistakes? Like you know, take a safety on your teams first possession of the game for no reason?
Yeah, because tom brady did that. You could also pull up in the giants packers playoff game, you know the one where the giants destroyed them,, where rodgers completely over threw greg jennings, for NO REASON..... Hey, you could even pull up peyton manning in the first half this year against the falcons where he threw 3 STRAIGHT INTERCEPTIONS. so i guess with your ****ing logic those are all garbage qbs. |
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Especially since statistically, he's only ever been worse than Cassel's two best seasons. |
He'll average 10-11 starts per year, providing, roughly, slightly-above average production in these limited starts.
As he's done his entire ****ing career. This isn't a ****ing guess; it's based on a significant sample size. |
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His football smarts are lacking in my estimation. |
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I mean, Jim Plunkett, for ****s sake. DOUG WILLIAMS. DREW BREES. IT'S HAPPENED BEFORE, DAMMIT! |
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Same as it ever was same as it ever was. |
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