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-   -   Football WSJ: Trading for a Quarterback Doesn't Really Help (https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=271759)

DaKCMan AP 04-04-2013 06:26 AM

WSJ: Trading for a Quarterback Doesn't Really Help
 
http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/i...0403222105.jpg

Quote:

Trading for a Quarterback Doesn't Really Help

Trading for quarterbacks has been quite popular this off-season, but are NFL teams being wise to do so? Recent history suggests otherwise.

This week's trades of Carson Palmer to the Arizona Cardinals and of Matt Flynn (pictured, far right) to the Oakland Raiders brought the total of projected starters acquired via trade to three this off-season, along with Kansas City's Alex Smith.

Notable quarterbacks such as John Elway and Brett Favre were traded by the teams that drafted them, before they had their greatest successes. But if Palmer, Flynn and Smith succeed in their first seasons with their new teams, it would buck a pretty clear trend in recent NFL history.

Since 1994, there have been 25 trades involving quarterbacks who started at least eight games for their new team the following season. Only two led their new teams to the postseason in the first year—Brad Johnson (1999 Redskins) and Steve McNair (2006 Ravens).

Some quarterbacks were successful, but struggled in their first season in a new city. Matt Hasselbeck went on to win five postseason games with the Seattle Seahawks and lead the team to Super Bowl XL. Trent Green had some success following a trade to the Kansas City Chiefs, and Matt Schaub and Jay Cutler remain upper-echelon quarterbacks with the Houston Texans and Chicago Bears, respectively, but have only three combined playoff victories with their new teams.

The failures of traded quarterbacks have far outweighed the successes, especially with over-the-hill QBs such as Brett Favre, who struggled down the stretch in his one season with the New York Jets, and Donovan McNabb, who struggled in his only season with the Washington Redskins, and later with the Minnesota Vikings. Both Palmer and Flynn were last traded within the past two seasons—and in both cases, the teams that traded for them gave up more than they got, while not achieving the results they were expecting.

—Eric Edholm
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...?mod=djemITP_h

007 04-04-2013 06:49 AM

I should start reading this paper. They make a lot of sense.

blaise 04-04-2013 06:55 AM

It's not like drafting QBs is always some great success either.

007 04-04-2013 06:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blaise (Post 9555571)
It's not like drafting QBs is always some great success either.

Chiefs would be a great poster child for that article though.

blaise 04-04-2013 07:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Guru (Post 9555573)
Chiefs would be a great poster child for that article though.

Yeah, trading for a QB can be a fix. It shouldn't be a trend spanning multiple decades.

Pitt Gorilla 04-04-2013 07:03 AM

Green Bay traded FOR Favre.

DaKCMan AP 04-04-2013 07:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla (Post 9555577)
Green Bay traded FOR Favre.

And, 16 years later, Green Bay traded Favre.

Deberg_1990 04-04-2013 07:19 AM

heh, love this line



Quote:

Originally Posted by DaKCMan AP (Post 9555550)
Matt Schaub and Jay Cutler remain upper-echelon quarterbacks with the Houston Texans and Chicago Bears, respectively


DaKCMan AP 04-04-2013 07:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Deberg_1990 (Post 9555591)
heh, love this line

It's the true-fan portion of the article.

Fat Elvis 04-04-2013 08:08 AM

To be fair, using their methodology, drafting a QB in the first round really doesn't help either. Only 7 out of 48 QBs drafted in the first round since 1994 lead their teams to the playoffs in their first year. Two of those were last year, Luck and RG3, which everyone is saying are once in a generation QBs. Otherwise, '08 is the only other standout year when both Ryan and Flacco led their teams to the playoffs.

Before folks start their bitchfest and give themselves an aneurysm, understand I am only using the apparent methodology used by the article. I'm not saying that first round QBs don't develop into franchise QBs (ie the Mannings); I'm just using the same criteria as the article when they say that trading for a QB doesn't really help. Using their criteria, drafting a QB in the first round doesn't really help either.

DaKCMan AP 04-04-2013 08:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis (Post 9555666)
To be fair, using their methodology, drafting a QB in the first round really doesn't help either. Only 7 out of 48 QBs drafted in the first round since 1994 lead their teams to the playoffs in their first year. Two of those were last year, Luck and RG3, which everyone is saying are once in a generation QBs. Otherwise, '08 is the only other standout year when both Ryan and Flacco led their teams to the playoffs.

Before folks start their bitchfest and give themselves an aneurysm, understand I am only using the apparent methodology used by the article. I'm not saying that first round QBs don't develop into franchise QBs (ie the Mannings); I'm just using the same criteria as the article when they say that trading for a QB doesn't really help. Using their criteria, drafting a QB in the first round doesn't really help either.

How many of those 48 QBs drafted in the 1st round started at least 8 games for their teams during their rookie season?

ndws 04-04-2013 08:12 AM

lets revolutionize the game and play without a QB

loochy 04-04-2013 08:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ndws (Post 9555676)
lets revolutionize the game and play without a QB

trade for tebow?

DaKCMan AP 04-04-2013 08:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ndws (Post 9555676)
lets revolutionize the game and play without a QB

We've tried that the past 7 years. Doesn't work.

BlackHelicopters 04-04-2013 08:15 AM

Wow. Water is wet. The QB lottery is part luck, part coaching, part talent, part skill, part intelligence, part having a good defense, etc.............Thanks Wall Street Journal.

el borracho 04-04-2013 08:33 AM

WSJ: Trading for a Quarterback Doesn't Really Help
 
Chiefs fans of the last 30 years: Duh

Fat Elvis 04-04-2013 08:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaKCMan AP (Post 9555674)
How many of those 48 QBs drafted in the 1st round started at least 8 games for their teams during their rookie season?

Most of them.

KC_Lee 04-04-2013 08:48 AM

So basically it boils down to the fact that real life is not like Madden?

Shocking...:eek:

RealSNR 04-04-2013 08:49 AM

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/Kk-rZsZnrQs" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Ace Gunner 04-04-2013 08:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ndws (Post 9555676)
lets revolutionize the game and play without a QB

after four plus seasons of no QB, I'm a firm believer you are an idiot

Dayze 04-04-2013 09:31 AM

Since 1994, there have been 25 trades involving quarterbacks who started at least eight games for their new team the following season. Only two led their new teams to the postseason in the first year—Brad Johnson (1999 Redskins) and Steve McNair (2006 Ravens).

LMAO
Go Chiefs.

philfree 04-04-2013 09:36 AM

This is great info and all but the deals been done for a while now so what's the point?

Ace Gunner 04-04-2013 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dayze (Post 9555838)
Since 1994, there have been 25 trades involving quarterbacks who started at least eight games for their new team the following season. Only two led their new teams to the postseason in the first year—Brad Johnson (1999 Redskins) and Steve McNair (2006 Ravens).

LMAO
Go Chiefs.

I have not claimed this trade will result in a championship, but instead I believe the Chiefs have been so far removed from pro football reality, this move at least pulls them back into orbit.

I was listening to local radio this morning. They were discussing the Royals and Parkins said the team needs to "put the ball in play" offensively -- to "play small ball" and "get something going".

Imo, that is very much the problem with both franchises in KC.

Billy Martin's Yanks were classic small ballers that got it going, then got the big guns cleaning it up (Reggie J). Same with the Reds. Same with the Curt Flood Cards...

In football, Montana and his WR's would chew you up underneath with quick outs & slants. Eventually, they got your defense so crossed up, they hit some big ones and you were toast.

I don't understand why these franchises don't know how to win, but to me the lacking value in starting small is at the center of it.

Coogs 04-04-2013 11:06 AM

So is better trade for a Guard? How about a LB deal? Or CB? (how many Super Bowls have Denver won since they traded for Champ anyway?)

Hammock Parties 04-04-2013 11:08 AM

But guys, Eli Manning was traded

Ace Gunner 04-04-2013 11:11 AM

also, imo wins this season depend more on the core players of this chiefs team. DJ, Hali, Flowers, Berry, Bowe, Jamaal -- these players need to bring a lunch to work.

Montana didn't get it done here.

Hammock Parties 04-04-2013 11:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buzz_TinBalls (Post 9556134)
also, imo wins this season depend more on the core players of this chiefs team. DJ, Hali, Flowers, Berry, Bowe, Jamaal -- these players need to bring a lunch to work.

Yeah because those guys all sucked last year.

Dayze 04-04-2013 11:17 AM

when it comes to QBs, be it draft or FA, the Chiefs have proven over and over and over, to be completely reeruned in their evaluation.

The days of tossing in a scrub QB/game manager and thinking you have any chance at the Super Bowl are gone. A team is just spinning its wheels otherwise.

Defense doesn't win championships; offense does.

MatriculatingHank 04-04-2013 11:18 AM

Teams win Super Bowls. Not QBs..
Just ask Tom Brady (and Gisele)

Sorter 04-04-2013 11:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MatriculatingHank (Post 9556155)
Teams win Super Bowls. Not QBs..
Just ask Tom Brady (and Gisele)

http://img.gawkerassets.com/img/180q...f/k-bigpic.gif

RunKC 04-04-2013 11:34 AM

These guys say hi.

http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:A...Ei8LXfteOA9gcg

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-86dvaeHl8S...1600/image.jpg

http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:A...dmIscdkrwBYYhQ

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-tcu9uirAvM...John+Elway.jpg

http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images...jpg?1273154694

And these QB's were traded from the teams that drafted them originally and then went on to have success.

http://www.profootballhof.com/assets...on_180-220.jpg

http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images...jpg?1285405559

And there are other QB's like Fran Tarkenton and Bobby Lane who were also traded and had success, not to mention Phillip Rivers, even though he hasn't won a SB, but I'm just too lazy to put them up.

Sweet Daddy Hate 04-04-2013 11:41 AM

Yes lets find a way too keep defending the regurgitation of traded QB's to KC!/dumbass true fan
Posted via Mobile Device

keg in kc 04-04-2013 11:42 AM

At least we know where "RunKC" is running: to the desert. To bury his head.

Dayze 04-04-2013 11:42 AM

"since 1994"....

Sweet Daddy Hate 04-04-2013 11:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by keg in kc (Post 9556230)
At least we know where "RunKC" is running: to the desert. To bury his head.

mods should change his name to "Trusting The Process".
Posted via Mobile Device

Ace Gunner 04-04-2013 01:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wonton Prejudice (Post 9556146)
Yeah because those guys all sucked last year.

it must be cool to live in a on/off conditional world. not.

Fat Elvis 04-04-2013 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sweet Dick Willie (Post 9556228)
Yes lets find a way too keep defending the regurgitation of traded QB's to KC!/dumbass true fan
Posted via Mobile Device

LOL, an article gets debunked and the skeptics are are the dumbasses....

Hammock Parties 04-04-2013 01:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buzz_TinBalls (Post 9556652)
it must be cool to live in a on/off conditional world. not.

Those guys have all played pretty well for the duration of their careers.

Alex Smith has not.

If this team sucks it will be because of Alex Smith.

KCDC 04-04-2013 02:30 PM

The difference is that Kolb, Palmer and Flynn were acquired for very little consideration surrendered. So, even if they prove to be useless, it cost the team nothing but salary.

With the Chiefs, we gave up the equivalent of a low first round pick. So, Alex failure will have double the sting (as well as a triple sting in passing up drafting a good QB as well potentially).

RunKC 04-04-2013 02:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sweet Dick Willie (Post 9556283)
mods should change his name to "Trusting The Process".
Posted via Mobile Device

Idk how you can speak to people when Geno's sweet dick is rammed down your throat at all times.

AlexSmithDynasty 04-04-2013 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KCDC (Post 9557056)
The difference is that Kolb, Palmer and Flynn were acquired for very little consideration surrendered. So, even if they prove to be useless, it cost the team nothing but salary.

With the Chiefs, we gave up the equivalent of a low first round pick. So, Alex failure will have double the sting (as well as a triple sting in passing up drafting a good QB as well potentially).

How is a 2nd round pick equivalent of a low 1st round pick? By it's very definition it is a pick in the 2nd round not the first. High second rounder does not equal 1st rounder.

Ace Gunner 04-04-2013 03:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wonton Prejudice (Post 9556904)
Those guys have all played pretty well for the duration of their careers.

Alex Smith has not.

If this team sucks it will be because of Alex Smith.

Bowe had 3 TD's last year. Hali was mediocre at best. I could go on but I keep in mind what a ****ing homer you are. shut it.

RNR 04-04-2013 03:41 PM

Keep doubting Matt Flynn!

Hammock Parties 04-04-2013 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buzz_TinBalls (Post 9557362)
Bowe had 3 TD's last year. Hali was mediocre at best.

And neither of them were the reason we went 2-14.

You are obtuse, and probably trolling.

Setsuna 04-04-2013 04:04 PM

I stopped reading at Jay Cutler and Schaub being "upper echelon" QBs. Both suck.

Ace Gunner 04-04-2013 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wonton Prejudice (Post 9557403)
And neither of them were the reason we went 2-14.

You are obtuse, and probably trolling.

you ****ing idiot. this is the ultimate team sport. sport.

Kaepernick 04-04-2013 05:53 PM

Those bad trades say a lot more about the teams than they do about the strategy of trading for a QB.

Kaepernick 04-04-2013 05:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ndws (Post 9555676)
lets revolutionize the game and play without a QB

So you are saying to use Tebow?

Molitoth 04-04-2013 05:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kaepernick (Post 9557622)
So you are saying to use Tebow?

Colin Kline will do.

Fat Elvis 04-04-2013 08:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KCDC (Post 9557056)
The difference is that Kolb, Palmer and Flynn were acquired for very little consideration surrendered. So, even if they prove to be useless, it cost the team nothing but salary.

With the Chiefs, we gave up the equivalent of a low first round pick. So, Alex failure will have double the sting (as well as a triple sting in passing up drafting a good QB as well potentially).

People who keep saying this must have the "equivalent" of a high school education.

Bump 04-04-2013 08:11 PM

Brad Johnson was traded to the Buccs right? Well there you go! TO DA SHIP

cdcox 04-04-2013 09:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis (Post 9555666)
To be fair, using their methodology, drafting a QB in the first round really doesn't help either. Only 7 out of 48 QBs drafted in the first round since 1994 lead their teams to the playoffs in their first year. Two of those were last year, Luck and RG3, which everyone is saying are once in a generation QBs. Otherwise, '08 is the only other standout year when both Ryan and Flacco led their teams to the playoffs.

Before folks start their bitchfest and give themselves an aneurysm, understand I am only using the apparent methodology used by the article. I'm not saying that first round QBs don't develop into franchise QBs (ie the Mannings); I'm just using the same criteria as the article when they say that trading for a QB doesn't really help. Using their criteria, drafting a QB in the first round doesn't really help either.

Well the whole idea of trading for a VET is that they are supposed to be already developed and allow you to win NOW. Rookies always need to be developed to one extent or another.

el borracho 04-05-2013 09:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunKC (Post 9556199)
These guys say hi.

http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:A...Ei8LXfteOA9gcg

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-86dvaeHl8S...1600/image.jpg

http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:A...dmIscdkrwBYYhQ

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-tcu9uirAvM...John+Elway.jpg

http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images...jpg?1273154694

And these QB's were traded from the teams that drafted them originally and then went on to have success.

http://www.profootballhof.com/assets...on_180-220.jpg

http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images...jpg?1285405559

And there are other QB's like Fran Tarkenton and Bobby Lane who were also traded and had success, not to mention Phillip Rivers, even though he hasn't won a SB, but I'm just too lazy to put them up.

Most of those guys were traded before any significant playing time. Gannon is the only QB I can think of (in modern times) to have significant success after losing his job elsewhere. Alex Smith has years of mediocre play on his resume and lost his job. It is incredibly unlikely that he will all-of-a-sudden become the franchise QB that we all want.

TEX 04-05-2013 09:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by el borracho (Post 9558807)
Most of those guys were traded before any significant playing time. Gannon is the only QB I can think of (in modern times) to have significant success after losing his job elsewhere. Alex Smith has years of mediocre play on his resume and lost his job. It is incredibly unlikely that he will all-of-a-sudden become the franchise QB that we all want.

Drew Brees...

el borracho 04-05-2013 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TEX (Post 9558817)
Drew Brees...

I guess we would have to define "significant playing time". IIRC, Brees played only a few seasons in San Diego and then got hurt. Brees didn't bust, the Chargers gave up on him too early and I'm guessing they would do that differently if they had the chance.

TEX 04-05-2013 10:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by el borracho (Post 9558829)
I guess we would have to define "significant playing time". IIRC, Brees played only a few seasons in San Diego and then got hurt. Brees didn't bust, the Chargers gave up on him too early and I'm guessing they would do that differently if they had the chance.

Yeah - but your point is still valid. Brees, like Gannon, is the exception.

philfree 04-05-2013 10:59 AM

I guess a question could be when was the last time a QB was benched and then traded when he was leading the league in QB rating? When was the last time a QB who had put up a 97 rating in his last 30 games traded period?

I'm not in love with Alex Smith but this situation is a little unusual. I don't hate Alex either it's not his fault he was traded but at this point I'm going to root for the guy.

Jakemall 04-05-2013 11:03 AM

Logic Fail by the article.

If trading for a qb has more failures than successes then teams shouldn't trade for QBs.

Let's follow the logic to drafting.

If drafting for a qb has more failures than successes then teams shouldn't draft QBs.

Yeah...that works.


By the way, Brett Farve wasn't drafted by Green Bay...and Steve Young was with the Bucs before the 9ers. You don't do these things because they always work...you do it because there's a chance.

TEX 04-05-2013 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philfree (Post 9559092)
I guess a question could be when was the last time a QB was benched and then traded when he was leading the league in QB rating? When was the last time a QB who had put up a 97 rating in his last 30 games traded period?

I'm not in love with Alex Smith but this situation is a little unusual. I don't hate Alex either it's not his fault he was traded but at this point I'm going to root for the guy.

This.

The Franchise 04-05-2013 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TEX (Post 9558817)
Drew Brees...

Wasn't traded. Therefore isn't a part of this discussion.

The Franchise 04-05-2013 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jakemall (Post 9559102)
Logic Fail by the article.

If trading for a qb has more failures than successes then teams shouldn't trade for QBs.

Let's follow the logic to drafting.

If drafting for a qb has more failures than successes then teams shouldn't draft QBs.

Yeah...that works.


By the way, Brett Farve wasn't drafted by Green Bay...and Steve Young was with the Bucs before the 9ers. You don't do these things because they always work...you do it because there's a chance.

Did Brett Favre play 7-8 seasons with the Falcons before being traded? No.

How about Steve Young with the Bucs? Oh....he didn't?

Rausch 04-05-2013 11:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pestilence (Post 9559279)
Did Brett Favre play 7-8 seasons with the Falcons before being traded? No.

How about Steve Young with the Bucs? Oh....he didn't?

I don't believe that was the criteria.

The one huge difference here is the ability of a HC/GM to EVALUATE TALENT.

The guy that traded for Young also drafted well.

The guy that traded for Favre also drafted well.

IT ALL FALLS ON THE ABILITY OF THE FRANCHISE TO EVALUATE TALNET...

philfree 04-05-2013 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rausch (Post 9559287)
I don't believe that was the criteria.

The one huge difference here is the ability of a HC/GM to EVALUATE TALENT.

The guy that traded for Young also drafted well.

The guy that traded for Favre also drafted well.

IT ALL FALLS ON THE ABILITY OF THE FRANCHISE TO EVALUATE TALNET...

Nhu-u you have to take a shot and play the odds so you can at least say you tried!

Rausch 04-05-2013 12:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philfree (Post 9559320)
Nhu-u you have to take a shot and play the odds so you can at least say you tried!

I'm guilty of that...fair 'nuff...

philfree 04-05-2013 12:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rausch (Post 9559321)
I'm guilty of that...fair 'nuff...

I eally didn't mean you. I thought the bolded part of waht you posted was dead on. It's all about getting the evaluations right and getting those players or player/QB in this case.

philfree 04-05-2013 12:22 PM

I'm sick of peole posting the logic for us to draft a QB. It's beyond redundant and besides that posting about here is like singing to the choir.

RealSNR 04-05-2013 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philfree (Post 9559338)
I'm sick of peole posting the logic for us to draft a QB. It's beyond redundant and besides that posting about here is like singing to the choir.

We do it because guys like Black Bob happen.

And this guy:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jakemall (Post 9559102)
Logic Fail by the article.

If trading for a qb has more failures than successes then teams shouldn't trade for QBs.

Let's follow the logic to drafting.

If drafting for a qb has more failures than successes then teams shouldn't draft QBs.

Yeah...that works.


By the way, Brett Farve wasn't drafted by Green Bay...and Steve Young was with the Bucs before the 9ers. You don't do these things because they always work...you do it because there's a chance.


loochy 04-05-2013 12:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jakemall (Post 9559102)
Logic Fail by the article.

If trading for a qb has more failures than successes then teams shouldn't trade for QBs.

Let's follow the logic to drafting.

If drafting for a qb has more failures than successes then teams shouldn't draft QBs.

Yeah...that works.


By the way, Brett Farve wasn't drafted by Green Bay...and Steve Young was with the Bucs before the 9ers. You don't do these things because they always work...you do it because there's a chance.

You are gay.

TEX 04-05-2013 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pestilence (Post 9559270)
Wasn't traded. Therefore isn't a part of this discussion.

FYI - Rich Gannon was brought up. Therefore it became part of the discussion. Capisce?

warpaint* 04-05-2013 02:25 PM

I just hope this regime is quick to cut ties when this turd proves his stink. Outside of that what's done is done. Well that and draft one one later this month. ;)


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