Playoff Odds according to footballoutsiders.com
 

I just posted this on the Jets site (my team for those that don't know), thought you guys might like to see what the predictions/simulations are for KC

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 10,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 10,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

The table's a little messed up, here's a screen

http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y13...playoffskc.jpg

Playoff Scenarios
This report lists the odds of each team

* Reaching the Conference Championship Game
* Winning the Conference Championship Game
* Winning the Super Bowl

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

Stating the obvious.

How's our balls taste AFCW?...

LOL you win the worst division in football. Doesn't mean you're playoff caliber. It means you're the shiniest piece of ****ing shit in the pile of shit. Point is: you're still shit.

EDIT: Oh I would say this about Oakland also.... in fact, I already have.

So if we make the playoffs by winning the division, it doesn't mean we are playoff caliber?

Yeah, douche, that's exactly what it means...

The Chargers will the division again this year. They're very sneaky, (ask the Donk fans).

Will they the whole thing?...

Funny. When I look at the Raiders schedule I see them with 7 wins total too.

I see 6.

Tomato, tomatoe...

If you don't understand the difference and cannot comprehend it using my example, I don't feel that further explanation will help.

But, of course.

Giants - Chiefs Super Bowl? I think I could live with that, I am not sure how Jerry will feel about hosting the Giants for a Super Bowl in his beloved stadium. ROFL

The Chiefs aren't even playoff caliber but you think they're Super Bowl caliber? Holy shit. Homerism has reached a new high. The Chiefs will get beat by whomever they play in round 1 and I don't even care who it is.

This seems like a bad omen. However it sure beats backing into the playoffs like the herminator did. If we can get the monkey off our back and beat the streak and atleast win a first or second round game.. I would feel immensely better.

I understand that the statement you made was poorly worded. I certainly believe you meant that even though the Chiefs win the shitty AFC west, that does not mean we can compete against other playoff competition. But unfortunately that isn't what you said. Whether you decide to admit you were vague and essentially incorrect in your statement is entirely up to you. We don't expect much from you except clowish behavior anyway...

LMAO

So if the Chiefs make the playoffs, they aren't playoff caliber?

please explain.

Apparently, he (or she) doesn't feel further explanation will help...

He's reading that from the chart, you ignorant ****nut..... Talking about us being homers, when your dumb-ass is on a Chiefs Board hoping to flame or start an argument. OF COURSE we are going to assume that the Chiefs will make it to the Super Bowl, we are Chiefs FANS!!! Please go and find a board for Raider fans and you can get a boner about McFadden padding his stats against the 32nd and 27th run defenses in the league.

It says right there that according to these stats we are the second most liekly team to win the Superbowl you dumbass. I know you're a worthless troll but at least read the ****ing OP.

Hold up there sport.

If we have a LOSING record from here on out we finish 9-7.

Honestly, that's the best any team in the AFCW (outside of KC) can hope for right now.

So how, exactly, are we not "playoff caliber?"

I hate to agree with JTagg7754, (with his bad reputation and all), but, you guys aren't ready to play with the big boys yet.
The Chargers offense is a juggernaut and their 'D' is in top form. You guys are doomed but thanks for coming out.

I hope so.

Being that both the Chiefs and Raiders have managed to emasculate them only serves to give us hope for the postseason...

GL with catching up to our record then, homeslice. Past history definitely suggest's that they can do it.

I'm so sorry, you are 1000000000000% correct. How could I think to be so dumb to not dumb it down a little for the majority of this board.

Hilarious that my behavior is "clowish" yet I've been told to die NUMEROUS times since being here when I was still being cordial w/ the board as well as people wishing my children were stillborn. So I will politely say "**** off" to you much like that fat cow seems to be doing in your pic.

Dude. Once again. It was a reference to the OP which stated they are the most likely team to rep the AFC in the superbowl and the second most likely to win it.

It should be a fun 2nd half to the season, (at least for me).

LMAO @ weak avatar smack

I know, I get it... I'm just sayin'.

Shocking the only person who gets it isn't a Chiefs fan. If I could rep, I would rep you for not being a ****ing moron like majority of the locals around here.

That wasn't "avatar smack"......

I think there is an extremely small fraction of CP that thinks the Chiefs have a legitimate shot at winning or even attending the Superbowl. Still, if they make the playoffs there's always a chance of making some noise and who knows?

gee,those stats look strikingly familiar to cdcox's.

No.

Not likely...

I'm OK with making the playoffs, and possibly losing in the first round. Got a young team by-and-large. And if we do make the playoffs, I do not think it is written in stone that we couldn't sneak out a win or two. Gave the Colts a pretty fair run at Indy... when they had all of their weapons still playing.

No, there's a difference. If a moron (you) thinks I'm a moron, it usually bodes well for me. I hope this logic doesn't escape you.

I realize that and the majority of posters on CP are enjoying the early success and cautious about the future. You're right you never know who's going to make noise during the playoffs. The challenge for the Chiefs will be getting there.

I wasn't asking you to dumb it down.. I'm asking you to smarten it up...

Being asked to die however, is inexcusable. Unless they politely asked you to die in a fire... If so, it'd be great if you took their advice.

Read the ****ing table, dick hole. No one here would predict a SB for the Chiefs, you reerun.

No, we'll get there.

We will.

The challenge, as always, will be accomplishing something once we do...

When are you going to stop being a troll?

No one here is calling the Chiefs Superbowl contenders. Where do you pull this shit from? And winning the division doesn't make us Playoff caliber? According to the NFL, it does.

You are really reaching for shit dude. Chill out.

Dude, you've been here longer than this week, and probably plan on sticking around longer than this week. That said, beware of playing with the Raider trolls on the board if you wish your stay to be even remotely pleasant.

I know, the chart was confusing to you but my post was directly in response to those numbers and things. I doubt the Chiefs or the Giants get to the Super Bowl but those number thingies show that, right now, they are the teams most likely to go to the big game. Would you like me to explain how some numbers are larger than others (kind of like comparing dick sizes in the jail bathroom) and what that might mean?

It's been a damn fun ride so far this year as well. Time will tell if it will all come crashing down, but it sure seems as if this team has been built and is being coached in a fashion to possibly make it to the playoffs much earlier than expected. Maybe even this season.

I don't even think that'll be a challenge. Oakland isn't ready to compete. Denver is acting like it's still November of 2009 every game and SD has dug too deep of a hole. KC will win by default. Again, they're the shiniest piece of shit in a pile of shit. They'll make it but won't do anything. Like you said, they're not ready to compete.

I hate to admit this after being on this board for a couple days and realizing how reeruned majority of the fans are, but when Pioli took over and got his personnel, I knew it was only a matter of time til the Chiefs were back. Then they had a couple of great drafts and the countdown began. I don't think it's this year as it is maybe next or the year after.

But what do I know? To these ****s I'm a homer................ riiiiiiight.

Typical CP poster. I aplaud your realism. :clap:
You guys have a good young talented team with good coaching. I'm of the opinion that it'll be a year or 2 untill you're one of the big boys.

Apparently the logic of actually READING charts that state the Chiefs are the team 2nd most likely yo make the superbowl escapes you too. Enjoy trolololing now...

Its the way you come onto a Chiefs board and act like an asshole that makes people dislike you.

Duly noted.

Actually, we have only had one good draft with Pioli. The other good draft, 2008, belongs to Herm.

One thing that is not getting much play in the media is the fact that Gates tore his plantar fascia, he is downplaying it, but it could keep him out a long time.

I absolutely dread playing the Steelers and Ravens but outside of that, really, why couldn't we beat anyone else?...

This forum seems infatuated w/ numbers. That's the funny thing though. You can twist and manipulate them to however you wish to make things seem glorious. I for one don't care about numbers. I actually watch teams play and I gauge my opinion off of that team based on MY observations. I know this forum of superior intellects won't agree but the Chiefs just aren't as good as those lil numbers say. Not even close.

I believe that if the Chiefs make the Superbowl this year, it will be because of a QB change. We are not going ANYWHERE great with Matt Cassel at the helm. He's a damn good leader, but he's no Manning or Brady.

THE ****ING WHOLE CHARGERS TEAM, SAVE Crybaby, is hurt.


THE WHOLE OFFENSE.

EVERY player, save the holdout WR who's due to show up in a few weeks...

Ahh but see I was not an asshole when I first got here. I only followed the path your people lead me through.

Personally though, I don't give a **** if you like me or not. I have already been requested to stick around also via rep from a couple people so obviously not everyone here is all that bad.

The Raiders definitely aren't as good as their numbers suggest. You laid the ****smack on an ill-prepared Broncos team, who proceeded to then get beat by the 49ers, who we laid a ****smack on earlier in the year. If you watched either of the Colts or Texans games, we were pretty damn competitive with them.

That is my mistake then. I thought Pioli masterminded that also. Regardless, the personnel is getting put in place and you should be ecstatic b/c of it. I could only wish Al would relinquish control even though something got into him this past draft..... well the first half at least when he started picking football players and not combine warriors.

The Chargers aren't playing with the big boys right now either.

Now go get yer shinebox bitch.

Please dont classify me in with "these" people. I only joined about a week ago and have therefore only seen you act like an asshat in defense of others posting negatively towards you...

Stop.

Don't...

Enjoy your stay...

We also competed w/ the Texans. Had the defense played like they did lately and had we made the OLine changes we recently did, maybe we would've beat them.

Also, do me a favor, how about you find my post in here or on RFN where I said Oakland is any good. Go do that for me. When you find it..... well you won't.... but you can post it here if you want.

Look what someone over there had to say about me today:

Yeah, I don't think I'm nearly the homer some of the douchebags over here wanted to assume.

Keep him here!

:clap:

OF course you are going to be asked to stick around. We don't boot people for having different opinions and we actually welcome rival fans. It's obvious that you don't understand how this board works. That's why you are catching so much shit.

All of the "die in a fire" shit is just Chiefsplanet humor, but you're taking it like it's a real threat. Hence the humor they find in it.

This board has very few homers, yet you insist it's full of homers. More reason why people don't like you. You don't know what the **** you're talking about.

No one is saying that Sunday won't be a tough game. We all know it will be. Yet you insist otherwise.

And the fact that you won't acknowledge of consistant this team has been just makes you look foolish.

And the whole "you haven't played anyone" shit is just that, shit. They took the Colts to the wire IN INDY. They beat the shit out of the Texans all game long until the Chiefs melted down in the 4th.

They have been blown out by no one and beat all the teams they're suppose to beat.

Get your head out of your ass and you'll see that this place if full of great, realistic football talk.

You come in here attacking and talking shit and undermining the teams success and you're bound to bring the homer out of anyone.

What the **** else are they going to do? bow down to the Raider fan during Raiders week and say, "yeah, Chiefs suck". Of course you're going to get people pulling up everything they can in defense of your boneheaded, off the wall bullshit.

Quit dreaming and stop whining.

Meh. He's more palatable than Chumpionsucker.

That guy can't even be taken seriously. I don't even respond to him anymore. He's just an idiot.

At least this guy will eventually be a good poster here like our other Raider fans. Chumpshit is just a dumber Knowmo.

I want to know where our "regular" Raider fans are at this week. :shrug:

Raiders951 is the best of all the new Raiders' fans from this week, and it's not even close.

I hate to ask this, but who is Knowmo? Seems like the end all. be all of trollism.

My guess is they're embarrassed by this new influx of cock suckers.

I was thinking the same shit. Where is Ugly Duck? That's a good Raiders fan....

In the last 1/4 of the season, the teams in contention for the playoffs step-up and starting playing at a higher level. We still need to see if the Chiefs have that extra gear.

gonna be hard to do without a legit passing game

I fully expect the Chargers to be right back in this thing by the end of the season. We're going to finish at 9-7 or 10-6 most likely. Hopefully the Chargers don't get on a roll like they usually do.

These next two weeks are going to go a long ways in securing the division. If we beat the Raiders this week and the Chargers drop to the Texans, I think it'd be a good bet that the Chiefs take the division.

If the opposite happens, I think we're in trouble.

Despite his avi, I agree.

I agree.

Geez, what does a guy have to do to get noticed around here? It's not like I haven't been doing the exact same thing since the days of the Star Board. Where was FO then?

http://files.nfl-forecast.com/

Some reasons why you should use my predictions:

1) My process is transparent. I use team efficiency ratings from http://advancednflstats.com. If you are willing to read long enough, the stats are completely defined on that web site. FO, is great and everything, but what they are based on is behind the curtain. Their playoff predictions will disappear next week, never to be seen again. Good luck tracking the accuracy of their predictions over time. They take a "trust me" approach. My predictions are archived on my blog.

2) I provide an application where you can analyze scenarios. For example, what happens to our odds if we win against the Raiders this week?

http://nfl-forecast.com/

3) My tiebreakers are rock solid. I know that the tiebreakers on FO were incomplete for a while. I still don't know if they accurately handle things like 3-way ties, which occur much more commonly that you would think.

4) Chiefs-specific support on this board. I routinely provide in depth analysis of the Chiefs playoff odds (or draft position odds if we suck) on this board. In 2006, I had the exact scenario described for the Chiefs to make the playoffs and updated it throughout the day. People that were following my threads knew what it would take for weeks leading up to the end of the season. At the end of the 2007 I announced the procedure that would be used to determine the Chiefs draft position as the final FG sailed through the uprights. It took the NFL another 24 hours to sort it out.

No one else is going to be more in depth, or accurate, or timely than me.

You go posting FO playoff forecasts on here like it is the greatest thing since sliced bread and you are sticking a knife in me, bro. WTF.