Mellinger: Chiefs’ biggest problem isn’t turnovers, it’s the QB
 

Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/2012/10/13...#storylink=cpy

Posted on Sat, Oct. 13, 2012
Chiefs’ biggest problem isn’t turnovers, it’s the QB
By SAM MELLINGER
The Kansas City Star

The talk around the Chiefs is about turnovers. Gotta limit turnovers. Take care of the ball. Value the football. For all the talk about Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn and whether this hot mess of a season can be saved, so much of what’s been said and focused upon in team meeting rooms has been about limiting turnovers.

On the surface, it makes fine sense. The Chiefs outgained every opponent this season but have turned the ball over 19 times already. That’s a silly number, you know. It’s more than three teams had all of last season, and on pace for more than any team in the last 30 years.

Internally, the Chiefs seem to believe this is their biggest problem, that fixing the turnovers will stop the angry banners from flying over Arrowhead Stadium, and soften the criticism of general manager Scott Pioli, and redirect attention to what finally looks like a very good defense.

The thing is, that belief is just wrong. The much bigger problem is the quarterback, whether it’s Cassel or Quinn. The facts are overwhelming.

Think about this: teams with more yards of offense are winning 65 percent of the time this season, teams with more rushing yards are winning 68 percent of the time, and teams with fewer turnovers are winning 76 percent of the time.

Teams with the higher passer rating are winning 85 percent of the time.

Quarterback play trumps all, even turnovers, and it is past time the Chiefs join the 21st century. And to the point that Cassel is on the hook for 14 of the Chiefs’ turnovers, these issues are correlated, but it only matters if the Chiefs see it this way and drastically change their priorities.

Because they are swimming upstream, running a race with ankle weights, and competing in a beauty contest without makeup. They’re focused on the wrong things. This is the most frustrating kind of losing.

Even if the Chiefs fix what they think they’re doing wrong, they’ll still be doing it wrong.

In general terms, this is not new, of course. The need for an improved quarterback situation is a staple column topic here, and criticism of Pioli’s confidence in Cassel is now part of Kansas City’s DNA.

But as the evidence stacks up, the Chiefs should be forced into making major changes — regardless of who is in charge. Consider this a public service.

The purpose today isn’t to rehash old arguments, but to look at them from different perspectives. Like, for instance, Las Vegas oddsmakers. Sports books have proprietary quarterback rating systems that are among their biggest factors in setting lines.

Elite passers like Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are worth as much as a touchdown — an enormous number in a league where only one game opened with a line bigger than five points this week.

Curious what happened when Cassel was officially ruled out this week in favor of Quinn, who has completed just 52 percent of his passes and hasn’t started a game in three years?

“No (line) move whatsoever on Cassel,” says Pat Morrow, head oddsmaker for Bovada.

In oversimplified terms, the Chiefs have focused on every position but quarterback, convinced that if the rest of the roster is strong enough they can win without a Hall of Fame passer. This is a bit like trying to start a fire with two sticks instead of a Zippo.

Even ignoring how horrendous Cassel was this year before his concussion, and that Quinn also isn’t good, the philosophy is so clearly outdated (at best) or delusional (at worst) that it has some fans rooting for losses so the team might be convinced to draft a quarterback.

The facts are overwhelming. The last game-managing quarterback to win a Super Bowl was Brad Johnson a decade ago, and in the last 25 years, every Super Bowl-winning quarterback but three (Johnson, Trent Dilfer and Mark Rypien) is either in the Hall of Fame or likely to be inducted.

The NFL’s emphasis on parity, particularly through the salary cap, makes it nearly impossible to be so good at other positions that a team can be merely OK at the most important spot.

But Ben Roethlisberger can compensate for a mediocre offensive line, Aaron Rodgers can make up for a weak running game, and Tom Brady can hide a bad defense.

Changes in how football is played — from rules favoring the offense to quarterbacks entering the league much better prepared than ever before — mean that “good” is no longer good enough. It used to be that quarterbacks needed to throw catchable balls. Now, they’re relied on for passes so accurate that the receivers maintain speed and extend plays after the catch.

When the Broncos traded Jay Cutler to the Bears a few years ago, Chicago ended up with the second-best record in the NFC and Denver ended up with the second pick in the draft. Various studies have shown that when elite quarterbacks face non-elite passers, they win about 80 percent of the time.

The Chiefs are essentially trying to make hay in that 20 percent. They are knowingly going into most games disadvantaged in something that league-wide numbers and Vegas experts with millions on the line say is even more critical than turnovers. They are doing this on purpose.

It’s incredible how much of the Chiefs’ mess could be cleaned up with a better quarterback situation.

The worst part is that the Chiefs seem to be the only team in the league that doesn’t see this. With the possible exception of the Jets — who reached two AFC championship games with Mark Sanchez — no team has gone nearly as long as the Chiefs without an honest effort to improve nearly as bad a quarterback situation.

The Chiefs are either smarter than every other team in the league, or spinning their wheels in thick mud, and at 1-4 with the NFL’s fifth-worst point differential, the evidence is stacking up fast.

It tells you plenty that Chiefs fans are relieved to see Quinn. Imagine if they actually had a promising quarterback. One that wasn’t given up on after 12 starts in Cleveland, who hasn’t been behind Ken Dorsey and Tim Tebow and Derek Anderson on the depth chart.

Instead, the Chiefs have put their fans in the awkward position of wondering whether it’s better the team continues to lose so that the organization may have more motivation and opportunity to fix its fundamental flaw.

This is what happens when a fan base is forced to wait for a team to recognize reality.

To reach Sam Mellinger, call 816-234-4365, send e-mail to smellinger@kcstar.com or follow twitter.com/mellinger. For previous columns, go to KansasCity.com.

© 2012 Kansas City Star and wire service sources. All Rights Reserved. http://www.kansascity.com

Yes, please.

Just teach Charles to throw 5 and 10 yard passes then go all wildcat.

Props to Mellinger for getting out in front of that Pioli turnover spin and curb stomping it.

Keep the pressure on; it's our only hope.

That just never gets old...always makes me laugh.

If your QB can't make plays, you aren't gonna win shit.

Simple as that.

If we stop turning the ball over we'll just lose close games.

shocking

Good column.

Except Johnson, Dilfer, and Rypien, every Super Bowl winning QB of the last 25 years is in the hall of fame or likely to be inducted. Great stat.

Speak truth to Pioli

Our hope is that Cassel is deactivated, Quinn either plays at a level he never has or fails terribly and is replaced by Stanzi after 2-3 games and he either lights the football world on fire or plays terribly, too.

We need that top pick.

we could have grown a franchise QB from Lenny's DNA in the time it's taking the Chiefs to find another one.

Mellinger has really stepped up this year. Shame that means we're probably going to lose an outlet to someone that actually pays money

Hey Sam, I know you're gonna read this and I just want to say on behalf of all of us:

Thanks for stepping up and pointing out the real root of the problem and giving us a voice.

Kudos, sir.

How curious that Cassel's record against elite quarterbacks is .210. LMAO LMAO LMAO LMAO

preach brother mellinger

These articles are great.

It's like Mellinger is donating $10,000 to our cause with each writeup.

Rypien went off that year as well the redskins at the time were breaking offensives records left and right. He was elite that year.

Hell with the strategy they used last week, it would have made more sense to have a lineman playing the position of quarterback.

It really angers me that this team might find some stupid pride and will their way to 6-10.

Just give up, idiots. You get paid either way.

Crennel should not have made excuses for Matt Cassel. Cassel's leadership is at the center of this mayhem -- he's a horrible leader. After four seasons as a starter, you either got it, or you are Matt Cassel.

Romeo used to be a guy that didn't sugar coat it. Not anymore. $$$ changes a man sometimes.

Romeo is retiring, and gives no ****s.

The thing I like about Cassel and Quinn is that they are tall and have nice hair. /Romeo

And when you don't score as many points as the other team, you lose the ballgame/Romeo

Great, great column.

The quote about attempting to make hay in the 20% is a fabulous way of looking at the problem. Well done, Mellinger. Very well done.

FAX

My name is Mug and I approve this message.

We're trying to get pickels out of pickels jars/Romeo

If I say it's easter, ya better go start colorin ya pickles herp a derp hurr durr hey hey heeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeey

ROFL

That almost sounds like Gunther. Maybe Quinn should rip off his sleeves. :)

It sounds like a joke, but the last two times they asked Romeo what he liked about Quinn, his response was that he is tall. Then he went on to include Cassel in that.

You cant make this stuff up.

My favorite line that highlights the absurdity: "They are doing this on purpose."

Love the incredulous tone.

It's just brutally embarrassing head up assholism the last four years.

We got ****ed hard, and I loathe the NFC West for ever putting a positive spin on it.

bet we still see Cassel this year.

If Pioli isn't fired I bet Cassel is back.

Pioli will go down in flames and glorious explosions with his bubby.

I'd love to hear his response to this.

WE have a pro bowl QB, what more do you want?/Pioli

Pioli should be chained to a chair and forced to watch loops of Matt Cassel's worst plays while fielding questions from the four horsemen for 12 hours a day, for a week.

I agree.

Great article, but I think a lot of credit has to go right here to the Planet. We have brought the stats out to support the arguement... sent them to the media... and guys like Kent and Sam were smart enough to pick up on the data being sent their direction and keep digging for more.

:thumb: Sam!

Make a difference, not a point.

don't you mean differance LMAO

Matt Cassel is a pro-bowl QB. He grades out perfectly. LMAO

Wrong ! 19 turnovers has lost us two games . We should be 3-2 at worst. If we had a decent/good QB we would be 5-0. We have enough talent other than QB to be 13-3 this year and make a hell of a run in the playoffs.

Matt Cassel was on pace to break the franchise record for passing yards in a season and is a pro bowler.

WHAT MORE CAN YOU ASK FOR???

New CP mantra: Its the Quarterback, Stupid

Hehe. He's got so many garbage yards. We would have had to go 1-15 and be behind by 20 in every game for him to actually do it. That would have been epic for Cassel to set the passing yard record in the same year as setting the franchise record for losses.

One minor quibble -- QB rating takes into account turnovers...but overall point is exactly right.

You win in this league by being able to move the ball through the air without throwing INTs.

Cassel is been beyond bad this year. Cassel is a completely damaged good mentally, and Quinn will be better. I really have no idea how much better, but better. Very unlikely that he'll play at an NFL-competent level like Orton, though.

Quinn will complete 55 percent of his passes for 6 YPA and we'll lose 24-17 instead of 34-10

I expect Quinn to look better than most think because TB has the bottom pass defense in the league.

Around 220-240 yards 2tds/2-3ints. 60% 7YPA

What happens IF you are completely off?

If Brady Quinn is actually a decent QB, this team is completely ****ed.

That is pretty stupid.

If Quinn is decent we'll finish 6-10 or 7-9 or some stupid BS.

You want that?

If Quinn is decent we'll finish higher than that.

So you literally think Brady Quinn can come in and lead us to 8-3 down the stretch. LMAO

With games against:

Manning x2
@Roethlisberger
@Rivers

even worse

How is finishing 8-8 or 9-7 good for this franchise? You want a 2 or 3 year experiment with Brady Quinn?

If we get good qb play, we can beat any team in the league.

Nothing Cassel did in the first half against Atlanta was groundbreaking, but if we can get that level of play the rest of the year, this team has enough talent to get white hot.

Now, do I think that will happen, no. No, I don't.

But Pioli thinks he's smarter than everyone else.
Posted via Mobile Device

I'm not with your tank the season to draft a quarterback philosophy. If we happen to lose so be it, but piss on that wanting it to happen. I know the quarterback position needs to be upgraded. Playing for the draft isn't the way to do it.

of course it is, ask the colts...

posts like this deserve Landry Jones

If Quinn does decent and saves Pioli's job, we may be looking at him next year. Thus, no upgrade at the QB position. If you can't root against your team thats fine, but I don't think the statement that "Quinn doing decent is bad" to be stupid. Not at all.

Great article. So which one of you is he?

If the Chiefs had a GM who was creative, aggressive, and competent, I might be inclined to agree. Alas, we do not have such an executive. Thus, the team must be forced into making the right decision, and losing is the best way to ensure this.

Don't get my wrong. Pioli should go and he's done enough or not enough (depending on your perspective) already to warrant that.

I'll be interested in the game-plan. I'm guessing Daboll will have way more confidence in Quinn, and we will actually throw the ball more than 4 times in the first half. Not saying Quinn will be good, but I think he will at least resemble a low-end NFL QB, something Cassel could not do.

No way he will have more confidence in Quinn.

I think we already saw it. First 3rd and 7 Quinn faced, he threw a strike to Bowe fo a 20 yard gain.

Because Cassel didn't do that twice in the opener at all.

As Ive tried to illustrate, Romeo doesnt want Cassel out there, either...for that to happen after the bye, Quinn needs to protect the ball but also be effective when he does put it in the air.

IMO, likely, better QB play would just expose other areas of the team in close games.

Like Stanford Routt getting owned on a game-winning drive by the other team.

Hell, we just had a close game and the defense choked like a bitch with the game on the line.

So there you go.

Whats his and Carrs PFF coverage and overall rankings now?

Exactly.

It doesn't matter what Romeo wants, he knew the conditions of employment when he signed on. Cassel will be back.

Good place for this

http://www2.tbo.com/sports/sports/20...pes-ar-532377/

TAMPA --
It's the NFL's great equalizer.

Always has been, always will be.

Turnovers.

Even head coaches who detest statistics have come to embrace turnover margin as pro football's ultimate tipping point.

Buccaneers coach Greg Schiano has obsessed on ball security since he arrived in Tampa nine months ago. Today's opponent drives that point home with more conviction than any Schiano speech.

"They're in the top 5 in just about every offensive category,'' Bucs safety Ronde Barber said of the Chiefs, "but all those turnovers are losing games for them.''

There are several reasons behind Kansas City's 1-4 start, but you begin with the 19 giveaways and work backward from there.

Think about it.

Nineteen giveaways in five games. That's nine more turnovers than the 49ers committed all of last season.

"They're happening in a lot of different areas and for a lot of different reasons,'' frustrated Chiefs coach Romeo Crennel said. "Two weeks ago, we get the ball ripped out a couple of times. Last week, we dropped the ball and fumbled a quarterback-center exchange. We tip balls up in the air and they get intercepted. Sometimes, we throw the ball in a bad place.''

These bumbling Chiefs are on pace to challenge pro football's record for most turnovers (65) in a season, set by the Denver Broncos of the American Football League in 1961, President Kennedy's first year in office.

If Kansas City ends up setting a new mark, it's unlikely Crennel will be around in 2013 to clean up the mess.

Once again, there is a powerful correlation between NFL ball security and scoreboard success. The top seven teams in turnover ratio – the Patriots, Falcons, Bears, Texans, Redskins, Ravens and 49ers – are a combined 27-8 through Week 5.

The bottom 14 clubs are a combined 24-44.

"You look at the Chiefs offensively and the only thing they're missing right now is the way they're giving the ball away,'' Schiano said. "If they stop doing that, the most important number, points scored, will go through the roof.''

With quarterback Matt Cassel out today with a concussion, Crennel is hoping Brady Quinn can do better.

Cassel is personally responsible for 13 of Kansas City's 19 giveaways (9 interceptions, 4 fumbles lost underrmining an offense that generates 402 yards per game.

The Patriots are tied with the Falcons for the league lead in turnover differential (plus-10) and coach Bill Belichick said giveaways come in all shapes and sizes.

"Certainly turnovers come in different categories,'' he said. "Some of them are just mistakes by the offense that the defense doesn't really have anything to do with, like fumbled snaps or a pass that goes off a receiver's hands and gets batted up in the air.

"Then there are other plays where the defense reads the quarterback and jumps the route, or strips the ball from the runner or receiver. I'd say there are a number of opportunities in most games for the defense to at least get the ball out or put pressure on it. It's an awareness of those opportunities and then taking advantage of them when they occur.''

You can just see Crennel nodding his head and thinking, "That's easy for you to say, Mr. Bill … you've got Tom Brady under center.''

The Bucs have done well with a plus-3 turnover ratio, especially compared to Kansas City's absurd minus-15 mark.

Tampa Bay has lost 12 consecutive games when losing the turnover battle and the ball security matchup appears to be in their favor today.

"Holding onto the football has to be your No. 1 objective on offense,'' Barber said. "You simply can't overstate its importance.''

You mean the fumble that was taken away because the ref had a quick whistle?

How many players have missed a whole week after a concussion because the doctors wouldn't clear them for practice? I don't think that's normal at all.

He isn't even cleared to practice without contract yet.

You can't be serious. I've never seen play-calling in the NFL like KC against Baltimore. Daboll was telling Pioli to **** off.

Of cooooourse he thinks it was a good call LMAO

TB is plus 3 in turnovers because they force a lot of turnovers...iirc they are second in the NFL in giveaways behind us.

This is gonna be one ugly game.