**** cdcox's OFFICIAL where are we drafting NOW thread ****
 

WE DRAFT 4TH (25%) or 5 th (75%) PENDING THE OUTCOME OF TWO COIN FLIPS Details in thread.

I'm starting the 80th billionth thread on this subject. I'll keep the thread starter up to date so that people can see what is happening without wading through multiple threads.

If the Chiefs lose we will draft between the 3rd and 5th.

To get the 3rd we need:

A Chiefs loss

AND

An Oakland win

AND ONE OF THE FOLLOWING TWO

{(A Denver Loss) -OR- ( a Coin Flip win)


To get the 4th we need:

A Chiefs loss

AND ONE OF THE FOLLOWING THREE OUTCOMES

(An Oakland win) -OR- (A Denver Loss) -OR- (TWO Coin Flip wins)

To get the 5th we need:

A Chiefs loss


If the Chiefs win we will draft between the 6th and 8th.


To get the 6th we need:

KC to win (blah)

Oakland to win AND
Baltimore to win AND
Minnesota to win AND
Indy to win

To get the 7th we need:

KC to win (blah)

AND ONE OF THE FOLLOWING 2:

(Wins by Baltimore and Indy) -OR- Oakland win

Otherwise a KC win causes us to draft 8th

So, we're picking 5th, if we lose.

SD isn't going to lose to OAK.

Awesome, good thread.

You're good. . . real good

No, if we lose, we probably pick 4th

Mike Singletary for NFL Commish

I don't question you but do you have a link for the draft tiebreakers? I'm just looking for conformation.

He has a typo.

He has scenarios for the 4th pick twice.

The only way we pick 4th is if OAK wins, according to what he has listed.

Question....

What are the scenarios if we happen to win this game?

no, what I am saying is there are a lot of "ors" for the 4th pick. If any one of the ors happens, we get the 4th

Also... wasnt there a scenario where we picked up a 2nd if Atlanta won or sumthing?

He's working on it, but I think it's impossible to pick later than 8th.

To get the 4th we need:

A Chiefs loss

AND

(An Oakland win)

-OR-

(A Denver Loss)

-OR-

(A Dallas win and TWO Coin Flip wins)



A KC loss AND an OAK win.

Without the OAK win, the "or" scenarios mean nothing.

That's dead. The best we can do is 3rd.

Thread starter fixed, but still working on the Chiefs win scenarios.

How is the number 2 dead?

Im confused. Im reading it like chiefs loss AND 1 of 3 scenarios must happen (including OAK win)

We can't pass St. L on SOS.

No we only need one of the -OR- statements to happen, including the Oakland win.

Sounds good! lets go vikings!

So am I...

TD Vikings!

Currently we are picking.....?

I got it. ATL beating SEA counted as only 1 instead of two cause the double meetings and CLE beating SF was really damaging aswell. Then them beeting their in div rival would give them 0 in division team wins. And we have OAK vs SD giving us atleast +2.

Did I sort of get that right?

**** Bob Gretz.

wrong thread -- but still f'im.

Washington 7-0. Damn....even though I hate the boys

That is correct.

BTW the refs took it back...fumble and touchback

0-0

TD Raiders, thanks to a Rivers fumble.

7-7.

So what happens if this game ends in a 0-0 tie?

A new thread gets started

Jeez..... this might just take place.

They are both playing like they don't want to win. lol

Okay, I think I finally got the Chiefs win scenarios right....

I thought I read somewhere that for winiung percentage computing purposes, our record would look like this:

3.5-11.5

Winning percentage of .21875

How are we affected by the Dallas game?

Not.

Edit: I'm an idiot, see below.

San Francisco 5 11 0 .313 219 364 Lost 1 3-3 4-8
Oakland 4 11 0 .267 266 368 Lost 3 2-3 4-7
Kansas City 4 11 0 .267 216 322 Lost 8 2-4 3-8
Baltimore 4 11 0 .267 248 363 Lost 9 0-5 1-10
Atlanta 4 12 0 .250 259 414 Won 1 1-5 3-9
NY Jets 3 12 0 .200 255 345 Lost 3 2-4 3-8
St. Louis 3 12 0 .200 244 390 Lost 3 1-4 3-8
Miami 1 15 0 .063 267 437 Lost 2 0-6 1-11

after we lose we will drop below Atl, the jets will jump us, i the Rams win they are 4-8 conf so they jump us, A Baltimore win makes them 5-11 so i think this thread is totally wrong the Chiefs will get the 2nd pick with all of this happening

Oh, sorry I just read the first post. So really the only two things that effect us is the DEN game our game and the OAK game?

Trust me, we cannot get in front of St. Louis on SOS.

Depends on if the Cheifs win or lose. EVERYTHING is in the thread starter.

Yeah but the thread starter said something about Dallas thats why I was asking.

Sorry, I'm an idiot. Yes, the Dallas game could affect the SOS of Atlanta. We want Dallas to win.

But ATL never played Dallas they played the AFC west and NYG. So DAL doesnt matter?

It doesn't matter....the Rams and Dallas are both going to lose.

I'm an idiot yet again. Dallas does not matter. That's my final answer.



My software doesn't spit out scenarios. So I have to enter various game results manually. I had the Dallas game listed as one that mattered and so started moving that slider around. But it only mattered in scenarios ot get ahead of some other team. (I think).


Thread starter fixed again.

Thanks for persisting on this.

I think its great. Im very gratefull. I just dont want to cheer for Dallas unless I absolutly have to.

Based on the scores at this moment we would draft 4th or 5th. We'd have to have two coin flips go our way to draft 4th.

So Dallas has to win?

No. Doesn't matter.

So if things go the way they're going right now we will be drafting fourth or fifth based on two coin flips? By which two teams?

http://football.about.com/od/miscinf...draftorder.htm

Is this true cause if it is its DIV-record after SOS (giving ATL an edge with a 1-5 div and then KC if the results remain as now with 2-4 shared with OAK but a worse conf record with 3-8 to Oaklands 4-7)?

I think you are wrong in determining the order of the draft. you are using overall record and SOS only. I believe that the NFL tiebreakers are used unless you can provide a link stating otherwise.

This is all based on the scores we have now.

We'd be in a 3-way tie with Oakland and Atlanta, all three teams having the same record and AND the same SOS.

We first have to break the tie with Oakland since they in our division. Without going into the details, Oakland would draft first based on the outcome of that tiebreaker.

So the first coin flip would be between Atlanta and Oakland. We want Oakland to win that coin flip, such that they would get to draft in the 3rd slot.

Then, we would be in a coin flip with the Falcons over the 4th and 5th spot.

http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/draft/update

Draft positions are determined by record, the team with the worst record during the regular season picks first and so on. If two teams have the same record, the strength of schedule tie-breaker is used which is the combined winning percentage of all teams on each team's schedule for the current season. If teams are still tied after strength of schedule has been applied, the division or conference tie breakers are used. If teams are still tied after applying all tiebreakers or if two teams are tied that are in different conferences, a coin toss after the season will determnined which team gets priority.

The Super Bowl winner automatically picks 32nd while the Super Bowl loser picks 31st regardless of regular season record. All other playoff teams are placed in the selection order based on their regular season record upon losing their playoff game. If a playoff team and a non-playoff team are tied based on regular season record, the non-playoff team will pick first. If two playoff teams are tied based on regular season record, the team that lost in the earlier round of the playoffs will select first. If both playoff teams that have the same record exited the playoffs in the same round, the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker is applied.


Record
SOS
Division record (only applies if in same division)
Conference record (only applies if in same conference)
Coin flip

Looking like a 5th now.

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures


TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURE FOR SELECTION MEETING

If two or more clubs are tied in the selection order, the strength-of-schedule tie breaker is applied, subject to the following exceptions for playoff clubs:

1. The Super Bowl winner is last and the Super Bowl loser next-to-last.

2. Any non-Super Bowl playoff club involved in a tie shall be assigned priority within its segment below that of non-playoff clubs and in the order that the playoff clubs exited from the playoffs. Thus, within a tied segment a playoff club that loses in the Wild-Card game will have priority over a playoff club that loses in the Divisional playoff game, which in turn will have priority over a club that loses in the Conference Championship game. If two tied clubs exited the playoffs in the same round, the tie is broken by strength of schedule.

If any ties cannot be broken by strength of schedule, the divisional or conference tie breakers, whichever are applicable, are applied. Any ties that still exist are broken by a coin flip.

So sorry for being a moron again but the Division tiebreaker wont split us from OAK cause we will have the same. But the Conferance is difference. So do we want a worse Conf record or a better in order to draft earlier?

Sorry just read this. It explains my last question. Again thanks alot.

When I say Division tiebreaker, I mean the whole 11-step process. (see below).

We would have a better record in common games. (KC wins against SD and Minn compared to an Oakland win against Denver)


Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).

2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.

4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

5. Strength of victory.

6. Strength of schedule.

7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.

9. Best net points in common games.

10. Best net points in all games.

11. Best net touchdowns in all games.

24-17 SD leads, end of the 4th.

Looks like a 5th.

Damnit! Chiefs are driving. Don't **** up the 5th.

Tied score.

If we win we get the 7th.

If we lose we get the 4th (25%) or the 5th (75%).

Denver-Minnesota tied, with Denver attempting a 50 yard field goal with just a 45 seconds left.

Minnesota's ball on own 35...39 seconds..1 TO. tie game

I take that back! They went for first down.. Minnesota ball with 44 seconds left... still tied.

own 34...0 TO...31 seconds

That would give us the 4th with a KC loss.

C'mon Brodie -- toss an INT!

:)

But after D-Bowe gets 1000

Is the Minnesota game going into overtime now? Watching it on CBSSportsline, and it is just frozen after the last minesota run with 24 seconds left.

And 100 catches for Tony G!

looks like OT for Denver. It seems like they win every OT game though

Damn, Minnesota fumble, recovered by Denver. That game is basically over....

NFL.com tells me Tavaris Jackson fumbled and Denver has it inside Minnesota's 15. Looks like a fifth is the best we can do.

We better lose this game. It seems the Chiefs always mess things up.

NFL.com tells me Tavaris Jackson fumbled and Denver has it inside Minnesota's 15. Looks like a fifth is the best we can do.

Edit: Under review

Denver won

There are always the two coin flips to give us the 4th.