http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft...ory?id=4797424
One of the many memorable stories told in Paul "Dr. Z" Zimmerman's classic book, "The New Thinking Man's Guide to Pro Football," detailed the brief NFL career of collegiate high hurdles champion Harvey Nairn. Then-New York Jets coach Weeb Ewbank was constantly searching for fast players; when Nairn sprinted past All-Pro cornerback Lem Barney in a preseason game, Ewbank was so impressed with Nairn's potential that he kept the speedster around for three years despite the fact that he never caught a pass in a game.
The cautionary moral of the Nairn tale is that it pays to not get too caught up on a single performance when grading a player. I bring this up because after one game of the tape review of Georgia Tech defensive end Derrick Morgan (No. 5 on Scouts Inc.'s top 32 list and No. 8 on Mel Kiper's latest Big Board), I had thoughts of grading him above the phenom Ndamukong Suh.
That dominant game was the Sept. 10 contest against the Clemson Tigers. Morgan had seven splash plays (defined as when a defender negatively impacts a passing play) in a mere 25 pocket pass rush attempts and very nearly had two others.
Those are Suh-like numbers. Equally impressive was the wide variety of pass rush moves he used to get them. He alternated outside speed rushes with inside rip moves, sprinkled in a measure of bull and spin moves and used the wrist club and shoulder club with equal effectiveness. The mixing of moves at this level is so rare that I can think of only two NFL pass-rushers whose mastery would be equal to this (Jared Allen and Patrick Kerney).
Morgan also had a dominant showing against the run in that contest. Clemson knew better than to try to test him very often, so the Tigers directed only five running plays his way. Morgan won the point of attack (POA) block on four of those runs and the Tigers gained only five total yards.
Having a negative impact on 11 plays in one game is a pace that even the aforementioned Suh would have trouble keeping up with, but Morgan generally kept up a strong pace in the other five games of the study:
Miami Hurricanes: one POA win in seven runs, zero splash plays in 11 pocket pass attempts
North Carolina Tar Heels: zero POA wins in two runs, two splash plays in 17 pocket pass attempts
Florida State Seminoles: two POA wins in five runs, three splash plays in 18 pocket pass attempts
Georgia Bulldogs: five POA wins in 12 runs, two splash plays in nine pocket pass attempts
Clemson Tigers in the ACC championship game: three POA wins in 10 runs, one splash play in 13 pocket pass attempts
Add them up; it equals 11 POA wins in 36 POA attempts and eight splash plays in 68 pocket pass attempts. It's not quite to the initial Clemson game level but it is the second-best performance level I have seen in this year's Draft Lab breakdowns (behind only Suh).
That would seem to make Morgan a slam dunk top-five pick, but there were a couple of negatives of note.
First among the drawbacks: Whenever Morgan failed to win a block directed at his point of attack, the ball carrier often gained a lot of yards. There were 15 runs that gained at least five yards; six of those went for 14 or more yards. To put it another way, opposing runners gained 221 yards on the 25 runs where Morgan didn't win a POA block. A lot of this is due to Morgan's zealousness to get upfield and that is something he will have to improve upon at the next level.
Another potential area of improvement is endurance. Morgan was on the field for 299 of the 356 plays in these six games, or 84 percent of the time. That is a quality figure -- but Morgan did seem to have some issues during the Miami game. He was on the field for only 17 of the 27 passing plays and only 25 of the 36 rushing plays in that contest. Those numbers are a bit troubling and the negative feeling was amplified when the camera did a sideline pan of Morgan that showed he was having trouble catching his breath on numerous occasions. That may have been only a one-time issue, but it is something that any NFL team considering drafting him should at least do due diligence on before completely signing off on selecting him.
The Football Scientist Lab Result: Ndamukong Suh is probably the best collegiate defensive line prospect to come along in a generation -- and, for a time, Morgan's tape review had him keeping up with Suh. The two areas of concern are relatively minor in comparison with Morgan's upside, so he easily gets a TFS seal of approval.
K.C. Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. His Countdown Daily by IBM weekly video matchups can be found every Tuesday here. He also can be found on Twitter (@kcjoynertfs) and at his Web site.
What about Derrick Morgan if Berry is gone?
(https://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=221434)