AccuScore: Chiefs take big step; 49ers alive
 

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slu...yoffodds122110

That article might as well be written in Spanish.

I must be and idiot, I don't understand why there are 4 percentage numbers for each team.


:facepalm: Nevermind



I have a 100% chance of being and idiot.

This is what the table is.

http://img574.imageshack.us/img574/3633/11933274.jpg

It is criminal that St Louis still has a 42% chance with a record of 6-8. JFC

It'll be a bittersweet victory in a couple weeks b/c I ****ing hate the Chargers so damn much and beating you guys will probably put them in the playoffs :(

Bottom line is we have to win this Sunday and again next Sunday. Period!

The Chiefs do not have an 86% chance to win their division, lol. That's absolutely reeruned, it's not even close to that high.

Even worse that SF is still very much alive w/ a 5-9 record.

Yep. But it will be 0% when the Rams beat the 49ers this week.

Yeah, that's incredibly optimistic. I'd say 60%.

They're not being optimistic, they aren't Chiefs fans. It's probably that they're factoring in the Chargers road record and the fact they have 2 road games left, and vice versa with the Chiefs.

Per simulating the next two weeks, that's absolutely the case. We should win out and, if we don't, it's because we let a lesser team play spoiler.

I'm terribly sorry, but if you think we have anywhere near an 86% chance of finishing 2-0, you are completely wrong. I'd say we have at best a 70% chance of winning both games (.7 * .7 = .49 meaning 49% chance we win both) and that's being optimistic. Then there's the chance the Chargers lose a game, which isn't all that high, but it's possible. Trust me, we do not have an 86% chance of winning the division.

A lot can happen.


The probable scenario is that San Diego and the Chiefs each drop a game the next two weeks.

And they should since Troy's whack ass is back in at QB. I need turnover after turnover after turnover and sack after sack after sack and a defensive TD and a ST TD from you guys this weekend. Want to make sure that happens for me? I'm in the finals in my big money league and this guy, while at 9-6 his team is stacked. I'm nervous and I'm 13-2 haha.

Anyway, Rams D/ST needs to help me out. I also got the Eagles going against a Webb ran Minni offense so I'm good there.

I'd say it's about 50/50 we lose 1 game, and I'd say there's about a 35-40% chance SD loses one. So chances are we'll win the division. I'll take that. If we get by Tennessee those percentages go up very high. Hell, hopefully Cinci does the job too so it's officially 100%.

We'll get 2 out of the 3 things you listed. If the Rams lose in Seattle in Week 17, I'm going to be pissed.

And they will.

They bounce back well for a rebuilding team.

Honestly, all football fans in MO should be sporting a big rubbery one based on huge turnarounds in such a short period of time...

Well the Chiefs are the only thing in the NFL that matters, and they won in Seattle by 18 and in STL by only 14. So you guys are 4 points better. But they're at home too, so give them 3 points. 28-27 Rams.

Tennessee worries me the most.

The Raiders....not so much.

Whitehurt will probably still be "commanding" that offense so you should be OK. You have to be ****ing pumped for the turnaround, right? Man, I guess you guys really were playing for Bradford last season haha.

The Rams are clearly the better team.


For all that's worth...

There we go. I have no clue how the crowd in Seattle will effect the game, though. If the Rams can go to the playoffs, the rebuilding is almost complete.

.

The better team doesn't let the 49ers win in OT by letting Smith escape a sack. The better team doesn't lose in OT because of a dumb PI call. Anyways, Shurmur will find a way to choke the lead. He goes into conservative playcalling mode when the Rams have a lead in the 4th quarter.

If our DC ever decides to really come after a QB we can walk away early from the Titans game. As big a fan as I am Collins is about as mobile as post-achilles Marino and they have few downfield threats.

As I see it we're already in the playoffs. One and done.

Bring it on both sides. Unleash Charles and whatever we can muster from the front 7...

You'll fit in well here.

Stick around...

Earth to captain dipshit - the first game we played was in Oakland this time it's in Arrowhead. On January 2nd the Raiders will be knocked out of the playoffs in KANSAS CITY.

Eh my mistake. Been a rough morning.

:facepalm:


You are not helping the Stereotype of Raiderfans right now.


JFC

Heh...short-term memory loss is creeping in, huh Al?

And personally I don't care about making the playoffs. We're not ready to play w/ those teams. Sure it'd be pretty to have in writing but I'm not about moral victories. I want a good team before we try to compete w/ the big boys.

You should be proud about the Raiders this year. I think they're about a draft away from being a playoff quality team.

Yeah, I had a brain fart. I shouldn't go out holiday drinking the night before I have to be at work at 9 in the morning. Stupid people that come into town and don't have shit to do tomorrow talking me into bad life decisions. I need a nap haha

Oh I'm pumped about the turnaround except for one thing.... it means Jason Campbell will be around for a while. I hate his inconsistent ass. He'll play a good game or two and make you think he's got it then throw up shitters against some of the worst teams (take the Chiefs last year for instance when he got benched for Todd Collins) or the St Louis game this season (granted we didn't know the dramatic turnaround for you guys). Bruce had to save his ass that game

Props for owning up.


You guys are a QB and OC away from being really scary.

That game made me pissed. A dumbass roughing the passer call. Maybe the Raiders draft a QB in the middle of the draft?

Then shut your whore mouth and go play farmaland or whatever the **** menstruating women do on sundays...

You guys are on the right path. We'll probably have an opening also b/c I doubt Bruce get's signed again. Dude might be a decent QB (like a notch above Campbell) but he can't stay healthy to save his life.

I'm really liking the Devlin kid out of Delaware. Saw him play at PSU when he was a freshman and he's progressed nicely. Won't be too expensive either (pick wise) b/c of where he plays.

But then the Raiders could be the first team to ever sweep their division and miss the playoffs. That's something to hang your hat on.

How is Jacoby Ford? Any chance he becomes the Raiders #1?

See, I look at it differently. I hope the Chiefs make the playoffs even though I know they will most likely be out the first round. But I want these young guys to have the experience of playing in the post season tournament so when they go back next year they are ready to take the next step and progress deep into the playoffs.

That also means we don't make the playoffs.

And the Raiders sweep us.

LOSE-LOSE situation.

THAT is something I would be extremely pumped about. I can't think of the last time we could say that. I mean, the Raiders ended a SHITLOAD of streaks this season.

Just to name some:

- Consecutive losses to SD (was at 13 I think)
- Double digit losing seasons
- 11 loss seasons
- winning record in the division
- Possible overall winning record..

many more also. I have been pleased w/ them this year but they're still not legit. Not yet. Close though.

I love Ford. He has been one ****ing hell of a surprise. He is the reason we beat KC last time we played them. He single-handily took over that game especially when he burnt Flowers in OT (the guy everyone here said was better than Nnamdi......... very wrong).

He's never gonna be a number 1 guy though unfortunately. Raider fans keep whining about getting a WR first or spending big money of a Fitzy or something but I don't get it. We throw to our WRs maybe.... 8 times a game... all the WRs not just one of them. Why spend huge money on someone you're rarely gonna use b/c your offense is a run-based offense? We need a QB, RT, and OLB. If Seymour sticks around and we get some holes filled, I could see them being pretty dman good.

I can totally dig that logic. Hell, either of us may even make some noise and upset some people. It's all just a matter of opinion. You guys are a very young team and a team I said everyone would have to watch out for a couple of years ago.

86% is way too optimistic.

AND THE TIEBREAKERS AREN'T CALCULATED CORRECTLY!!!!!!!!!

If I'm reading the table correctly, it still shows the Chiefs having a chance to win the WC, which they do not.

I know. I'm not wishing for that, I just think it would be pretty crazy.

No, they aren't.

But step 1 is complete.

When you bitchslap your whole division you're doing something right. You have to start and end there.

Consistency, consistency, and then LEADERSHIP.

They won on the road, at home, everywhere vs. the most difficult of opponents. No matter how good or bad the division is those are always the most unpredictable and difficult games.

But after a huge win they'd play some NFCW dirtbag and lose. Or AFC cellar dweller and lose.

Leadership.

And this is where I worry. Campbell lacks those qualities and that's why I'm scared that if he's winning, he's gonna get a nice extension and we'll be a 6-10 team next year, then a 5-11 team, then a 8-8 team, then a 6-10 team etc for the better half of the decade.

Losing to SF and AZ just..... ruined me hahaha. Oh well, it's over and done w/, nothing can be done about it now.

We can only hope. :D
Posted via Mobile Device

This is far too optimistic. Lets assume the "chiefs win out" part of their 86% is about 75%. (I have no idea, just picking a number that looks good, I figure about 10% that the chiefs and chargers each lose only 1).

That implies the chiefs have about a 87% chance of winning each of their last two games. (square root of .75)

I'd say the chiefs have a slightly better than 50-50 chance of winning out (75% per game), and maybe at best, theres a 10% chance of the chiefs and chargers each dropping exactly 1 game. The third possible playoff scenario is laughably unlikely.

At best, being the wild-eyed chief homer I am, I'd say the chiefs have a 2/3 chance of making it.