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My official endorsement for the 21st overall pick.
Barring any bombshells, we pretty much know what we have in most of these prospects. There will be countless clues as to who and what the teams and GMs like in the prospect field over the next two months, but ultimately, the players have spoken.
Some Pro Days are going to fiddle with the rankings, but by and large we aren’t going to be terribly surprised by anybody. My selection for the Chiefs at #21 is based on the prospect’s talent, the nature of his position, our team, and this draft. My great enthusiasm for this player is matched by my certainty that this player will not be selected by the Chiefs. With the 21st pick in the NFL Draft, the Chiefs should select OLB Justin Houston, Georgia. Talent Justin Houston is a bolt off the edge. Before he gained his recent weight (in which it did not look like fat…), he showed great anticipation of the snapcount and was pure lightning off the edge. That speed, and that anticipation, are nigh impossible to actually “teach” a player. The versatility he will need to develop will come as he has added strength and 35” arms with which he can master any number of techniques. In other words, he comes pretty well prepared to blow stuff up in opposing backfields, while still having massive room for growth. Houston is also what Herm Edwards would call a “football player” in the vein of Tamba Hali and Glenn Dorsey: the man plays with tons of fire and willingly throws his body into blocks for teammates and plays the run passionately. This is no Dwight Freeney – this guy gets off on running backs just as much as quarterbacks. And with his added bulk, that will only add to his ability in that department. Houston has the look of somebody who can put up double-digit sacks in the NFL. I don’t claim he is the best prospect – I’m iffy on Bowers but I’d take Ryan Kerrigan in a heartbeat – but with the decent-enough depth at pass-rusher in the first round, it’s likely that Houston can fall to us. His biggest setback at this point is his added bulk. The 270 he weighs now looks a lot more like a 4-3 DE than a 3-4 OLB body-type. But even with the bulk, his speed is still very solid (4.6 at the Combine, he plays like a 4.5 on the field…). And he features a vertical that most receivers in this class lack. I think this translates into a player who can drop into coverage. The OLB Position Passrushing is the toughest job to do on the football field other than playing the QB position. It requires a specific set of physical skills and a never-say-die attitude that will be challenged hundreds of times throughout a season. Your strongest muscle must be your heart. Because of the difficulty of the position, it takes passrushers about as long as it takes quarterbacks to adjust to the league and play up to their potential. If you’re going to be in a rebuilding process, which despite their 2010 record, the Chiefs definitely are, you should go early and often with passrushers in the draft in the hopes of having a ferocious passrush in a couple years when you’re ready to contend for a title. Passrushers are also a lot like quarterbacks in that it is extremely rare that your true sack artists come from any round other than the 1st. The other positions Chiefs fans are debating this offseason for the first pick—reciever, nose tackle, offensive line—can be had in later rounds with less of a drop off. But passrushers in the first are the most likely to thrive, and it’s not even close. The Kansas City Chiefs I believe in Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson. Dorsey is now playing like a franchise defensive lineman, and Jackson came on incredibly strong in the last four games of the season – as well as the first game of the season. In other words, games in which he was playing close to 100% healthy. If this guy stays healthy, I bet he’s a gamer. These are two indispensible puzzle pieces for this team given the high picks we invested in them. But neither one is a great passrusher. Neither one of them is much of a passrusher, matter of fact. Our defensive line only features one good passrusher (Wallace Gilberry) and another guy (Ron Edwards) who is guaranteed three sacks a season. (Shaun Smith, meanwhile, is the worst passrusher we have on the DL.) Under normal circumstances, we could just upgrade the ends with passrushers, but the Chiefs are in an extraordinary circumstance with what we’ve invested in ours. Dorsey and Jackson need to not only be our defensive ends going forward, they need to play the overwhelming majority of snaps. Upgrading the defensive end position basically negates the value we spent on those players. So a passrush will need to be manufactured in other positions – namely, the position that’s actually designed to be a pure passrusher in a 3-4: the outside linebacker. Tamba Hali is a player that offenses have to single-mindedly focus on to keep their backfields clean. With Justin Houston developing, offenses would have to go more conservative to ward off both edges. A great passrusher would make everything on this defense better. The secondary would be under less pressure. Other players on the DL (namely Dorsey) would face less focus, and would be freer to operate which in turn would almost completely free up Derrick Johnson and our ILBs. In short, as important as a nose tackle is, one more great passrusher would vault this defense deep into the Top 10. The 2011 Draft Like all drafts, this is a draft that has more than a few quality receiver prospects in the early-to-mid rounds. Phil Taylor may be a reach at #21 anyway, so better to get some value later on for the nose. And I am under the belief that our current offensive line (Albert, Waters, Wiegmann assuming he returns, Lilja, and Richardson with Asamoah, Niswanger, and O’Callaghan in the wings) could use some depth, but can hold together for another season while we invest in other positions that are more difficult to develop. It’s hard to complain about an OL that paved the way for two 900+ yard rushers. |
But was he a team captain?
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I'm with you, D. Houston is the pick if he is there. The Chiefs can get a WR, C, NT in the next few rounds but they can't get a player anywhere close to what Houston brings to the table.
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I'd be okay with the choice, but he looked like crap at the combine when he was doing the open field drills. I don't think he can run with a TE.
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Justin Houston is enormous. His legs are the size of tree trunks. They ran him in a passing drill at the combine and you could see the ground shake. He didn't look very good out in space. There is no possible way he's going to have the fluidity and change of direction capability to effectively be a three down, standup strong side, outside linebacker in a 3-4 defense, and since we've already got a former 4-3 defensive end that was second in the league in sacks and first in forced fumbles, that's where Houston would have to play for the Chiefs. (Unless you want Hali to move over to the strong side to play Vrabel's position.)
I simply do not see Houston being effective in zone pass coverage that the position will demand a lot of the time. The guy bulked up for the combine, came in at 270 lbs. and looks like he's positioning himself as a 4-3 defensive end. You spoke of rolling out the offensive line in 2011 unchanged from 2010, saying that they were adequate for the task, but yet you still want to draft Houston while we have Studebaker and Sheffield on the roster with Stud getting more and more reps as the season progressed in 2010. At least to me, the OLB position seems to have better depth and developing experience than a number of other positions on the team. To pick a guy that is going to be a project for a position that we already have a All-Pro level player at in his prime seems a bit redundant, especially considering that there are a number of positions that could stand an immediate upgrade. Drafting Hali's replacement now would be a bit silly. |
I'd love for us to draft this guy, however, I don't see it happening. In that we agree.
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I share your hesitation with Houston being unable to keep up with tight ends and the like. I do think if he rounded down a few pounds he'd be better suited to do so. My question, though: do you think Hali has been a net positive or a net negative for the defense this year? Your answer to that is my answer to this issue. Hali is pretty freaking lousy at dropping into coverage, but his passrushing makes everybody's life easier. Adding another amazing passrusher will have the same effect. Especially when we do drop Hali, we'll at least know somebody else can get to the QB. When Hali dropped in 2010, we got bupkiss. Regarding the offensive line... I do believe our OL can hold together one more year, warts and all. I do not share that confidence with our OLB corps. Hali -- All Pro Vrabel -- purely mentor role, can do nothing on the field Studebaker -- the OLB you guys seem to want, good at dropping and decent at playing the run, but is not a reliable passrusher Sheffield -- huge question mark coming back from the injury We definitely need help at the position, and if Houston drops to us we're lucky. |
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I don't see how the Chiefs can draft a project at that position (and Houston will be a project as he's never been asked to do anything other than rush the passer from a three point stance) when there are bigger holes on the roster. If a guy like Reed or Acho is there in the second, or Herzlich in the fourth (who, if he checks out medically, is prototype for the strong side OLB spot) or Keiser (who played a OLB in a 3-4 for Stanford this past season) in the fifth, then sure, but the first rounder needs to plug a gap where we have a real need. OT, NT, WR, C all have priority over drafting a guy who looks to be the same type of player as Hali is, without the proven track record of what Hali has accomplished in the NFL. I don't want Hali on the strong side. I definitely don't want Houston on the strong side as a 3-4 OLB. And I don't think that Houston wants to do anything other than rush the passer, which is why he showed up at 270 lbs. You go to the combine with a specific agenda. If he wanted to show 3-4 teams he could be a standup OLB, he would have came in a 250/255. The guy obviously wants to be a designated pass rusher in a 4-3. And I don't blame him. It's what he's done his entire college career. |
Well, I'm of the opinion that most 3-4 OLBs are ****ing terrible in coverage.
I love this guy and I think our pass rush would go from mediocre to dynamite overnight. My only concern is that he only played one year in the 3-4. Quote:
But seriously, you spend a first round pick on a 3-4 OLB, and you're worried about him in coverage? Uh, hello...if it's a passing play, I want him heading TOWARDS the QB. |
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First of all, let me agree with you that he's not going to be in a Chiefs uniform, much as it breaks my heart (I felt the same way about my #2 and my #3 preferences last year, Clausen and Spiller). Houston's weight gain, even if it is muscle, is certainly a red flag to Pioli. It shows a degree of inconsistency, and while Crennel and Haley could likely pound the guy back to the 255 range if they had to, Pioli wants a guy you don't have to pound, Pioli wants a guy who pounds himself. Er... you know what I mean. Three quick points where we disagree: 1. As I detailed in my OP as to the importance of OLB, you truly need worldbeaters at the OLB position. It's that important. You can't have a great defense with just one world-beating passrusher anymore than you can have a great offense with a mediocre QB. 2. I have to go with Claythan on this issue with Stude. You know I love Stude, but he's a backup. He comes in spot situations, gives you the occasional rush, drops into coverage some, ****s up shit on special teams. He's not somebody who's going to give you much in passrushing, and he's definitely not somebody the defense has to adjust for. Just roll your fullback out to take him on and you're fine 90% of the time. Meanwhile, you can concentrate on where Hali is and double- and triple-team Dorsey. Putting another blue chip at the position makes everybody else on the defense play far more impressively. 3. Every passrusher is a project when you line up a 3-4 defense. There is no such thing as a readymade 3-4 OLB prospect in the NFL. Houston is far more geared with the format than 99% of the passrushers in this draft. I'll take those odds. By the way... I like Acho and really like Reed. Neither will last until our second. And everybody else you mentioned is a backup at the NFL level. If you want a stud starter at OLB, you must drop a 1st for one. |
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Hell, that's what I want. But in Crennel's system, you need an OLB that can cover. He doesn't send both the LOLB and ROLB after the QB all that often. Vrabel's cover skills are what made him so valuable in the Patriots system. He only had one season in which he had 9.5 sacks (2003) in Crennel's system, while Willie McGinest had one season in which he had 9 sacks (2002). The remaining seasons they had around 5 sacks each, because Crennel had one or the other in coverage most of the time. |
Good player that i would love to have.. if it wasnt for our system. no way he can rush the passer and cover equally well in the nfl..
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I like Houston but I can't see his big ass in coverage. And Studebaker is the Thiggy of LB's...The fans root for him, but in reality he is not that good |
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But what little I did see, I did like his ability to cover, and the speed he seemed to posess to get around the edge when he does rush the passer. |
If we're talking about a coverage linebacker Ayers might be the best guy then. Andy Studebaker ****ing sucks.
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See maybe that's where I get all crazy.
Because I consider the ILBs to be the coverage backers. This is so stupid. Like it's a bad thing for a team to have two Tamba Halis. |
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I even said that is what I would want. But that's not Crennel's system. |
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Shit. I mean I don't know much about football, but I could have sworn we had players in the middle of the field in that linebacker range? :D Really, I'm not a coordinator or anything, but it would seem to me that the only time you should have an OLB play a ton of snaps in coverage is if your opponent is running 4 or 5 wide on a regular basis. |
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I am not talking about what I would do on defense. I am talking about the system that Crennel runs. He uses all his LBs in coverage. |
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He ran a bad 40 at the combine, but if you watched him in the rest of the drills, he was by far and away the most polished guy out there with the best footwork and instincts. And Milk is correct and he's saying exactly what I was inferring from the start of this thread. The LOLB in a 3-4, and specifically Crennel's 3-4 defense, is dropping a lot in zone coverage and is asked to man cover the tight end a lot. You don't want two pure pass rushers in this defense. Like I stated, Houston isn't a good choice for this defense because we've already got the same guy in Hali, who is coming into his prime and has been a force rushing the passer. He's a proven commodity and it would be redundant to bring in another guy just like him. Neither Hali or Houston are ideal LOLBs in this system. |
Heap tore the Chiefs up over the middle and the linebackers sucked in space against Rice.
I'm sorry but i'm not spending a first on Herzlich. This will likely come off as assholish but i'm not sure how much stock you can put into a guy who had cancer. I mean i'm sure the treatment had to have done a number on his body I question how long he'll be able to hold up. Ayers would be an interesting pick but I think in this spot you go with the famous trade down option. |
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The Crennel system also gets a halfway decent passrush from its DEs. Which, despite the fact that we have spent Top 5s on two DEs, we don't have. Dorsey and Jackson are never going to have 7-8 sack seasons. We'll be lucky if either has a 3-sack season. And that's coming from a guy that believes in both players. So we have to engineer those sacks from somewhere, or else trade/replace those two DEs. So while I understand what you're saying, and agree that Ayers is definitely more of a Crennel SOLB prototype, we need the potential for double-digit sacks that Houston provides. Period. Now, in my opening post, I said that I did not expect Pioli to pick Houston, mostly for the reason you specified. |
The Baltimore coverag problems by our defense were somewhat scheme related as well...
http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showt...ht=merril+hoge |
Go back and watch the Ravens game...the only guy getting pressure on Flacco was Hali...he had ALL DAY to throw most of the time.
That's why he was able to sit there and look down the field and when no one was open, dump it off comfortably with absolutely no one in his face. |
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JMO |
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You'd think that if Jarrett Johnson can cover Moeaki 1on1 all game long and not let him see any daylight, that in time Houston would be able to do the same.
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And from ClayWhit. Flacco had all day. Which he did. OLB would be nice. NT would be better for overall defense improvement. |
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How do you think that the Jets get deep into the playoffs with one of the worst quarterbacks (statistically) in the NFL for the past two seasons? They drive people up and down the field with their trench players. Time of possession. Ball control. Big break off runs are nice and Charles is certainly capable, but if you can't move the ball at four yard chunks and eat clock and smash it in while in the Red Zone and protect your quarterback in the process, you ain't gonna win in this league. You also have to remember that the Chiefs were #10 in the league in sacks this past season. That's not too shabby. We are pressuring the opposing quarterback. However, we aren't plugging the run or protecting our own QB. Trenches. Start digging. http://cbms0hums.pbworks.com/f/Allie...20trenches.jpg |
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Again, JMO. |
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Did you even watch the Super Bowl? Hell, did you even watch the Chiefs? Charles moved the ball in 10 and 15 yard runs all year long. This league is about passing and attacking the passer. The Chiefs suck at both and that's why they got assraped in the playoffs. Not because they needed an OT. ****, you sound like Gunther Cunningham. |
I am kind of hoping we trade back or for picks next year, unless someone of value really plummets.
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The best teams we've fielded in the past 25 years have fit your philosophy. And they do shit in the playoffs because they can't open the game up effectively and they can't get to the opposing QB. Period. Clay's right, virtually every Super Bowl proves this. You must be able to open the game up on offense, and you must be able to get to the opposing QB. |
At 21 the best available players will likely be:
The CBs from Colorado and Miami - both are really good, but not a huge area of need for KC. OLB - Houston, Ayers and Kerrigan. IMO Houston has the highest ceiling of the 3. I don't like Ayers at all, he doesn't excel at anything. I'd take Kerrigan over Ayers. Tackle - Carimi, could be a pro bowl RT. Solder could fall, if the kid from USC is taken first. WR - Baldwin, Smith & Hankerson. All are options, but probably have a lower floor than the LB's and Tackles. NT - Taylor is the only 1st round option. I personally don't like the idea of taking someone in the first who didn't play like a first rounder in college. DE - likely some decent value, but it's a year too early to give up on TJax. If Jordan were to slide, I'd be tempted though. |
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But again, it's not you and me making the decisions and calling the defense. Even with the lack of pass rush from our ends, Crennel still rarely sent the LOLB, whether it was Vrabel or Studebaker, after the QB. And in spite of the fact that both Berry and Arenas were seen as outstanding blitzers from their respective positions, Crennel didn't utilize their pass rush skills much at all either. I'm not dedicated to Crennel's system, and in fact was not all that enthused by his hire. But Crennel is dedicated to his system and with that in mind, I'm looking at guys that fit what HE does. |
Ah, okay. So it's not that we disagree so much as you're telling me what I already know.
My OP: "The Chiefs won't pick that guy, but this is who I want." MM: "Chiefs aren't going to pick that guy." Thanks for that. |
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I'm telling you that I don't give a rat's ass what you want to do. |
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I'm saying rather than looking at a player that doesn't fit what Crennel, take another look and find someone that you like at 21 that does fit. You have some good draft posts, and I'm more interested in who you would like that does fit. |
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And as I stated, the Chiefs were #10 in the league in sacking the opposing quarterback. That's not sucking. Thats being in the top 1/3 of the entire league. However, I don't think that sacking the opposing quarterback should be the sole determining factor in measuring potential success of a team. The Steelers and the Packers were the two best teams in terms of sacking the quarterback in 2010. Both ended up in the Super Bowl. However, the rest of the top ten teams in sacking the quarterback didn't fare so well in terms of playoff success: 1. Pittsburgh Steelers 2. Green Bay Packers 2. Oakland Raiders 2. San Diego Chargers 5. New York Giants 6. Detroit Lions 7. St. Louis Rams 8. New York Jets 8. Tennessee Titans 10. Kansas City Chiefs Only four of those teams were in the playoffs, one of them being Kansas City. I'm not saying sacks are bad. I'm just saying that they aren't the end all, be all in determining a playoff team. And that Kansas City wasn't that bad at getting to the quarterback in 2010. While their pass rush could be better, it's not bad at all and in the top 1/3 of the NFL. They've got some other areas in which they could improve on, substantially so. |
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There is no way an OT has a larger impact on our football team than Justin Houston or a WR. None whatsoever. |
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Really? Versus a competent player at offensive tackle? Really? And you speak of actually watching the games? |
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Do you really think a slight upgrade at T is going to beat the Ravens? Really? Versus another competent WR? Really? |
I love kerrigan. But the more and more i think about it 1) He just isnt a real good fit for us and 2) He will be gone by 21 anyway.
I think we all can agree that the only way we beat the ravens and pats and colts is to get more depth at all positions. We have a good starting unit but we need depth to win in january. As of right now i think we will go with someone that will make us go WTF ha ha. I think Phil Taylor is the guy this year but who knows? We need a NT and these guys take a couple of years to come into their own. From what i remember of the playoff game was Cassle just sitting there all day waiting for something to open up. Then he had to force it and threw some bad passes. WR AND NT is a must upgrade imho How the F did bowe not make a single catch in that game? Still pisses me off |
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If you don't like what was offered, you should whine and throw your little hissy fit in his direction. Quote:
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Cassel had plenty of time to throw the ball against Baltimore but you want to draft an OT. You're a genious. |
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I also think that Belcher was quite effective at MLB, Johnson had an excellent season (finally) and that Mays and particularly Williams were good backups at the MLB/ILB spots respectfully. The two inside LB spots along with the defensive backfield are the least of this teams concerns. Getting a defensive line that would keep the guards from getting out to the second level would help the linebackers even more. Personally, I think that the coaching staff, particularly Crennel, did wonders last year. They were also aided by a schedule that perfectly played to the strengths of the 2010 Chiefs team. (Bad pass rushing teams and team that don't defend the run very well.) Next season, the schedule won't be as fortunate and I think that we'll get a better understanding of how truly ready we are to be a playoff team and where our greatest needs are from a roster perspective. |
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Do you not understand that you had little to no credibility before you posted your evaluation of Asomoah's play at LT, and lost whatever credibility you might have had then. No one is paying any attention to your dumb ass. |
forget it,dumb idea
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Whatever you say Mr. Super Talent Evaluator that continued to preach that the guy was "ASCENDING." Let's see...I think Albert isn't a good left tackle and you think he's ascending. And that gives me no credibility and you have placed yourself on the throne of credibility, holding the scepter of football knowledge. Is that correct? Welcome to Chiefs Planet, where everyday is opposite day. And apparently, you are paying attention to me. Otherwise, you wouldn't have responded. Ascending. |
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And, if by paying attention you mean, that you are hard to ignore, much like the poorly discilplined child in the store who continually cries every minute that he's in the store, then yeah, I'm paying attention. |
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I don't think any of that is an embellishment. |
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But when he does things well, he can and has locked down his opponent. He does a good job as a run blocker, and gets to the second level, something you constantly say that he hasn't done. He hasn't progressed. But at worst, he's adequate until someone is brought in to replace him. |
The problem with the line is not Albert. The problem with the line is that Wiegmann, while adequate in space hitting second level blocks on run plays, does not effectively drive block against any sizable linemen, and is basically a turnstile in pass protection against any remotely good defensive tackle. Which actually hurts the pass protection in a larger way, because he has to have guard help. He's too light (particularly by year's end) and he's too old (also more of an issue late in the season). I like the guy, he was good for years, but that ship has sailed.
The other problem is that the franchise has been trying to find a right tackle since 2002, when Tait went to the Bears, and has so far failed to do so. Those are the problems that need to be addressed. Finding someone to take Albert's spot at this juncture would be a luxury, not a necessity, and it would also, I think, be premature. |
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He fails to recognize that he did progress over the latter half of the '09 season, suggesting that he hasn't progressed since '08, but that's not important. It still remains that he showed no signs of progress in '10. So replacing him, while not a priority, is also not out of the question. Replacing Weigman is a priority, though. |
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It's okay to have multiple first rounders on the defensive line. Three out of three first round picks on a 3-4 defensive front seems to be the average CP posters idea of football nirvana. But have two guys on the offensive line that were first rounders?! It's akin to having your scrotum placed on a belt sander. |
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The problems on the line are immediately to his right. And I don't just mean Wiegmann. Waters is 34 and has been on a steady spiral down since Roaf retired. And then there's Wiegmann. Get a better center, and I think the impact ripples outward. Get a better left guard to boot (although I haven't heard a word about that happening...) and I think all of a sudden Albert looks like a lot better player. In a lot of ways, line play is a sum of the parts. As far as those parts go, Albert is at the worst the 2nd best cog we have (Lilja probably played the best last year). The right tackle position has been a hole for years. Center play has been a problem for years. And Waters is an increasing problem as time passes. I believe that replacing Albert, as I said before, would be a luxury move at this point. Bigger fish to fry. Unless you can bring in a hall of fame calibre vet for a song the way that Roaf came over in 2002. And I think we all know what the odds of that kind of lightning striking twice are. |
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here's Billick's opinion on KC's needs for the draft. the video is short though |
Didn't sacc also state that weigman was the best o line player we had last year? Waters was number two IIRC
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He is also 38 years old and is pondering retirement. Getting a suitable replacement behind him is a priority. That is, unless you are satisfied with Niswanger. |
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If Peterson was there at 21, sure, pick a corner, but picking a guy like Jimmy Smith or Harris at 21 would be ****ing lunacy.
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