Pioli drafts for need.
 

I took some time this afternoon to run all four first-rounders through a common metric to see if there's any connection I could draw.

2009: DE Tyson Jackson, LSU
2010: SS Eric Berry, Tennessee
2011: WR Jonathan Baldwin, Pittsburgh
2012: NT Dontari Poe, Memphis

Turns out there really isn't a connective tissue between the four. It's crazy that one guy drafted all four of them.

Character flags:

Yes: Baldwin (diva), Poe (motor)
No: Jackson, Berry

In need of development:

None: Berry
Some: Jackson
Lots: Baldwin
Complete: Poe

Positional value:

High: Jackson, Baldwin, Poe
Medium: Berry

Draft's depth at the position:

Deep: Berry, Baldwin
Shallow: Jackson, Poe

Boom-bust?

Nope: Berry, Jackson
Yes: Poe, Baldwin

Out of every single line I could draw, I could only draw two:

1. The Chiefs tend to avoid injury-concern players in the first round. (But even this is unlikely because they liked Barron.)
2. The Chiefs have a desperate need at the drafted position each year.

DE was the team's #1 need in 2009. Safety was among the team's top needs in 2010. WR was perhaps the top need in 2011, and NT was the top need this year.

I think Pioli may just be a needs-first drafter, at least in the first round.

Where's the poor motor reports for Poe? He was a three down player at multiple positions along the line. I've heard his former coaches come on the radio after the draft and gush about his motor.

There were sporatic complaints about his motor. I don't buy them either.

But it's beside the point anyway.

.

Also, in the interview with Jack yesterday, Pioli says they have 3 categories:

Musts
Needs
Wants

Those dudes are all musts.

This is great news! It means we will finally draft a QB next year!

Agree.

I don't think you can criticize Poe's motor. I think what people are saying is that it seems like he doesn't show up in games. Easy to get lost when you are getting double and tripled team because the rest of your defensive unit sucks ass.

Crennel and Pioli GUSHED about how Poe played damn near every defensive snap of damn near every game on a very bad team. When that team was down big, in the waning minutes of the 4th quarter with no chance to win, Poe continued to go full speed.

I'm excited to see how this kid looks when he has talent around him.

He really does and it's surprising

You would think that in the 1st round he would avoid drafting for need but he seems to do it then more than even later rounds.

You know how much I hate it when people call Baldwin a diva, right?

You've got to be doing this on purpose. You're trying to jerk my chain.

The thing I hate is the stupidity of people not recognizing the value of safety in today's NFL.

In the old days, safety wasn't nearly as valuable as today.

Darren Sharper, Bob Sanders, Troy Polumalu and Ed Reed, among others have been game changers.

Safety in today's NFL is a high value position.

Yeah I thought the same thing on draft day. However i don't think he drafts strictly on need.

It applies to nickel corners too.

The game has changed. The safety role has changed significantly.

I think a lot of people who evaluated Poe confused "poor motor" with "got his ass kicked". Poe gave an effort, he just wasn't effective.

Poe was in way too many snaps for a man his size, had no help around him and was asked to roam around on the line. The physical talent is there, it needs to be honed. Honed a lot.

He was in for too many snaps no doubt. The problem is that he wasn't dominant in the first quarter when he wasn't gassed.

Too many snaps wasn't the only issue why he didn't succeed. Don't be a Patteau and only pay attention to one part of the argument.

Don't rationalize his collegiate play just because KC drafted him. He wasn't that good of a college player, especially for someone with his natural ability. Pioli drafted a workout warrior.

You knew the rationalization was coming.

Very few wanted this kid before the draft, now people think he's a great pick.

People are already setting it up for when he sucks his first year (or two or three) they can break out the "of course he was going to suck his first year" argument.

He'll get a ridiculously long leash for no other reason than who drafted him.

On the other hand, one can defer to the expert.

I don't think interstellar travel is worth our time to research, but if Stephen Hawking says it is, I'll defer to him because he's a proven genius.

I'll admit I didn't like the Poe selection, but if Romeo Crennel says he has the ability to be molded into someone excellent, I'll defer to him because he's a legit defensive line genius.

Same thing with Herm Edwards and defensive backs -- the guy had a really great eye for them, despite his deficiencies everywhere else (and I do mean everywhere else). Think Todd Haley and receivers, and so on...

And I will say this, OTW.

We've had this debate a couple years ago when you were the Chiefs GM in the CP Mock draft.

You have to reach for franchise nose tackles, just like you have to reach for franchise quarterbacks. Other wise you end up with midround guys at "great value" instead of high round talent at iffy value (to be generous...).

Poe was a legit 2nd round prospect that we ended up taking way too high in the same vein that Miami did the same thing with Tannehill.

But the position is so important with so few prospects who truly look like they are able to fulfill the role, that you almost have to take the "if you don't have a franchise nose, you take one" motto that we've used for quarterbacks for years.

Then why didn't Pioli do that his first 3 years?

Also, I wouldn't be shocked if Powe, not Poe, was starting week 1. You look back at clips of Powe and he looks impressive. I don't know what happened with him last year cracking the roster.

I think the only franchise nose Pioli passed on was Cody.

Were there others?

Edit: It will be an extremely fun competition between Poe and Powe for that starting nose tackle position -- I'm going to love it. I think they just purposefully brought Powe along very slowly last year.

Says the guy that started a thread titled, "Drafting a nose = bad idea this year."

I've written more condemning things than that, OTW. I have a 1,500 word post back in March detailing how poor of a fit Poe would be for our scheme.

I've told you I didn't like the pick. It was a solid one-round reach.

But it's not logically inconsistent to come around on the player if Crennel vouches for the guy. This is the bread-and-butter of a Super Bowl caliber defensive coordinator.

That doesn't mean I have to come around on value, because it was piss poor value.

I don't like the Poe pick at #11 either.

As Milkman notes, the value of a safety is rising and, IMO conversely, the value of a nose is falling in today's NFL. So I think the positional value argument can be challenged. Nevertheless, a host of CPers over the past several seasons have said that a NT was the #1 need of this team.

Directshun, I think your analysis is a good one. I think Pioli regrets having passed on Cody. He was probably thinking the same of Cody what people are saying now about Poe. Yet, Cody worked out well. He also learned the lesson that the NT position is plug and play only if you want average play that does not push the pocket. You can fill with journeymen and late round picks for someone to be a fireplug up the middle.

The thing that has me coming to grips with the Poe selection so early was that Romeo explained, in essence, that he was the only NT that had a hope of collapsing the pocket because of his size and strength. If a NT can collapse a pocket while being double teamed, Romeo's point was that it would prevent an opposing QB from stepping up in the pocket. That helps defend against the pass, as well as the run, making his positional value higher.

If he is basically saying that only a monster like Ngata can collapse the pocket and that Poe is the only one in the class with that sort of physical ability, I can see it and have some hope that Poe (with proper coaching) can become an elite NT, rather than just a serviceable one. I think it was a big roll of the dice and the odds don't favor that he can become an elite; but, I can come to grips with the desperation/excitement that Romeo felt.

It's always been the case that the higher the ceiling, the longer the leash.

Dont hold your breath, both Dorsey and Albert are Unrestricted Free Agents, and Jackson can be cut, DE or OT will probably be the 1st round pick next year.

He was a rookie. They don't want to play them if they don't have to.

Nonsense. They didn't luck into Gregg until after the draft. When he was drafted and in mini-camp etc., it looked like Powe was the guy to play a significant roll at NT.

Even when they signed Gregg, they had to know that he was a stop-gap. It doesn't make sense not to give Powe some snaps last year. They lost 5 games by 20+ points, put him in.

well to be fair, Eric Berry was the pick we all wanted and it was the correct pick for any team at #5.

It didn't make sense to not give Stanzi snaps either. They didn't play Hudson until they had no choice due to injury.

There was no reason (in their mind) to put Powe on the field.

From recent quotes by RAC (before the draft), it sounded like Powe didn't know enough of the defense due to no offseason. They probably figured that with Gregg and Gordon, they had enough veteran presence that they didn't have to rush him in.

All teams draft for need. They set their draft boards based on player ability + need. If a 280 lb 4-3 DE is the best player in the whole draft he still wouldn't be at the top of our draft board because we don't need a 4-3 end.

With respect to Powe, I think the big reason is not only was there no offseason, the dude is learning disabled.

Do you really want to try to force feed a guy that will struggle to digest the playbook, when he doesn't even have a full training camp? You'd be setting him up to fail. Instead, they put him in the weight room and let him sit in a year of meetings before expecting him to play. I think it makes perfect sense.

With respect to Poe, I think they looked at him and saw a guy that played too many snaps and too many positions. The biggest scouting report flaw I read about him is that he tends to "stand up" after contact, which destroys his leverage. He also has no real developed pash rush moves other than the bull rush.

His biggest asset is that he actually gets off the ball quickly and his over all athleticism for a guy his size.

Well, fatigue is a big reason a lineman tends to stand up, because when your legs are gone its hard to bend you knees to keep low and still maintain your power (rather than bending at the waist to get your upper body low, which also gives you no power).

But, the guy went hard for way too many snaps and was moved around the defenses in college. He's also clearly worked his ass off in the weight room. If he truly had substandard coaching, perhaps the Chiefs could have concluded they will get much better results with their top level coaching since the guy seems willing to work. Second, the Chiefs are likely to liberally substitute Powe to keep both big guys fresh.

I'm not trying to polish their knob, I'm just trying to see how a smart decision maker could have gone after Poe.

Oh really is it called Powetistic, or Powetism, Powelexia.

They had a 45 man roster to work with. If you have a player on there whom you plan on going in only if its a blow out, you're not planning very well to use your roster.

I don't like the pick, and will be surprised if he ever lives up to his (immense) potential.

The real problem is that the "first year or two" excuse will be legitimate.

I'm with nj, though, and have said before, that I believe Powe will be the starter to start the season, and actually have high hope for him.

It will be difficult for Poe, even if he does show some of that promise, to root Powe out of the starting lineup, if he plays as well as I believe he can.

I totally agree...there was a groupe of us that thought Powe was a borderline 2nd/3rd round quality player in that draft that has a pretty nice sized upside.

It's gonna be nice to be able to call in the Powe Poe on opowesing offenses in coming years.

I wonder if Kelly Gregg signs anywhere...Romeo had mentioned that he wanted to play next year and if that's true, I don't see where he fits in KC.

If I already didn't like the Poe selection, this "Powe Poe" play on the names would turn me.

It really is seriously stupid.

So how's Powe looking? Except for the the three guys returning from blown ACLs I haven't seen any reports of what kind of shape the players showed up in. Did Powe show up in shape or did he balloon to 400lbs in his first offseason? I'll bode well for him if he's in shape and ready to go.

There was a report that quoted Romeo saying that Powe is in great shape.

Oh. Cool.

I seem to recall a report about a month ago, when the players showed up for off season conditioning, that the Chiefs were pretty pleased with the shape that Powe showed up in.

You can question the value at 11 but he was coming off the board by the end of the 20s at the latest regardless just based on the scarcity of persons with the body type that he has.

I think most coaches on the D side would prefer to bring rookies along slower to let them get accustomed to NFL play simply because one missed assignment (rookie mistake) can cost you a game. Doesn't mean they can always because of obvious reasons. Gregg/Gordon was good enough to allow Powe to learn for a year. I find it refreshing for the Chiefs to have gotten past the talent point of having to start a bunch of rookies. Us fans have to realize that just because a high rookie pick doesn't start day 1 that he's not an automatic "bust". There are only a handful of picks each year that are successful from day 1 and wouldn't benefit from some time to adjust to the NFL. IMHO the Chiefs are finally getting to the point talent-wise where thet could bet the farm in the next year (my preference) or two to jump up and draft the "franchise" QB and make a real run.

Not sure if that's true or not. Maybe from a mental standpoint, but i think when it comes to linemen, it's not really just the mental aspect of the game that takes adjustment, it's the physicality.

Maybe he sniffs the big board pen
I hear green ones are more potent

The brown ones made me dizzy.

Purple Pioli Punch