Mock (3/9/13)
 

Assumptions:

1. The Chiefs let Dorsey walk and cut Cassel.

2. They get one compensatory pick, an extra third (Carr).

3. The Chiefs try furiously to trade down, but there are no takers.

On with the show:

1. DE Star Lotulelei, Utah

Andy Reid clearly came to Kansas City to win now. And you win now by making your team better. Essentially trading out Cassel for Smith is doing just that. Keeping Bowe and Albert on hand does just that. Getting a one-year plug at CB so investments can be made at other positions does just that. And I believe the Chiefs have one more big-time investment on the horizon, be it Sean Smith, Cullen Jenkins, or Greg Jennings.

Plugging the first overall away for a right tackle doesn't help your team. Neither does investing it in a QB you don't plan to start and nobody's sure if he'll even be any good.

But replacing the mere run-plug that Glenn Dorsey was with a pocket-collapsing, QB pursuing, double-team commanding talent like Lotulelei could make life very difficult for an OL that has to face him, Poe, and Tyson Jackson.

This all assumes Lotulelei's heart checks out. I see him as a clone of Marcell Darieus, who plays pissed off and is almost unstoppable when he's on.

2. QB Ryan Nassib, Syracuse

The Chiefs package their 3rd and their 4th to move up about ten or so spots when they hear some team has a hard-on for Nassib. I don't think there is much of anything in this draft to get excited about at QB. I like Geno's tools, but his inability to take over and win games spooks me if I'm at 1.1 (I still probably take him in most scenarios, though).

Nassib is one of the few QBs on this platform that has another level he plays at -- it's not an elite level, but it's better value with a 2nd than you're going to get there anywhere in this draft. He is an accurate, noodle-armed game manager at the NFL, and fits like a prototype behind Alex Smith.

3. ILB Jon Bostic, Florida

Now that everybody hates my first two picks, let's do a crowd favorite at a position of legitimate need.

5. WR Marquise Goodwin, Texas

The idea here, obviously, would be to add a ridiculous speed dimension to our offense.

6. OLB Cornelius Washington, Georgia

A huge-bodied passrusher from Georgia could be useful to provide some much-needed depth behind Hali and Houston.

7. ILB Michael Mauti, Penn State

Anything to give this defense a little more depth at the linebacking corps is welcome.

QB: Smith, Nassib, Stanzi
RB: Charles, Droughn, Gray, Eachus
FB: DiMarco

WR: Bowe, Baldwin, McCluster, Goodwin, Wylie
TE: Moeaki, Maneri, Rucker

LT: Albert, Stephenson
LG: Allen, Hochstein
C: Hudson, Patterson
RG: Asamoah, Hochstein
RT: Stephenson, Allen

DE: Lotulelei, Bailey
NT: Poe, Powe, Toribio
DE: Jackson, Muir

OLB: Hali, Jones
ILB: Bostic, Sturdivant
ILB: Johnson, Mauti
OLB: Houston, Washington

CB: Flowers, Robinson, Arenas, Brown, Daniels
S: Berry, Abdullah, Lewis, Menzie

K: Succop
P: Colquitt
LS: Gafford

Direckshun, I think your new man crush on Lotulelei is a little overblown.

This post just reeks of homophobia.

I'm not homophobic, just lotuleleiphobic.

You don't think a DL of Lotulelei, Poe, and Jackson with Hali and/or Houston coming off the edges poses significant difficulty for more offensive lines?

I think our DLine wont mean a damn thing when we still wont be able to field a respectable lineup of QBs.

I just have little faith in Lotulelei being able to consistently beat NFL linemen in his rookie year. He may not even command double teams.

If Lotulelei is physically fine, he is a terrific pick. He has Poe's physical ability + he's a damn good player (what a concept for a first round pick?)

Honestly, I don't see how he and Poe or Powe play together on a three man line. They are all inside guys...much more suited for the 4-3. None of these guys are five techs.

Nassib is very crisp in the short passing game. He doesn't have the arm strength to threaten anybody deep, however. For that reason, I wouldn't take him.

Don't like the Goodwin pick because he is a track guy trying to play football and will play soft IMO whereas Austin is a football guy first with track ability but he will be gone in the 1st and I get your reasoning behind this pick.

I like your Star pick with our first because he is Ngata v.II IMO. And if they don't pick Star first then I hope they either take Floyd or Austin. These 3 players will have immediate impact type play aside from the Joekel/Fisher potential picks.

Do this with out the trade up.

If I don't trade up, I likely miss out on Nassib, Emanuel, or Bray.

That means I have to settle for Dysert or some shit like that.

Not a fan.

Austin as in Tavon Austin? JFC NO!

I would think someone will be there early 3rd but we will have to see.

So, we give up our 2nd, 3rd, 4th and a day 2 pick next year for Alex Smith and his backup?
Someone worthy will be there with the first pick in the 3rd and we pick again in the 3rd then again in the 4th.

The QB position is the #1 most important on the team.

The QB position is the #1 biggest weakness on the team.

And the Chiefs depth chart is the #1 worst in the league at this position.

It takes a lot of resources to right that ship.

Sure. But does it matter when you'll be playing Manning, Rivers, and Geno six times a season?

I imagine that it would matter, yes.

Do you think that Star replacing Dorsey/whoever would have won any of the games you lost last season?

Agreed on all points but not if all your draft picks go to mediocre players and draft reaches. Someone equal to Nassib will be there in the 3rd. Hell, I'd take that Scott kid in the 3d and be happy with that. Someone will be there. There are also plenty of other positions that need to be addressed.

Not single handedly, no.

Why draft him at #1 then? Guys that won't win you games shouldn't go first overall.

The Lions thought Suh could win them games. Turns out they were wrong. Not only that, but Star is no Suh.

Because defensive lineman almost never win you games. Really the only guys that win you games single-handedly are QBs and the freak RBs and WRs.

That does not change the fact that they are the second most important position in football.

Von has won games for the Broncos. Why are DTs the second most important position if they can't win games for their teams?

DT, imo, is the worst position to take early. Perhaps the fact that the Chiefs love drafting DTs early and the fact that the Chiefs are horrible are not unrelated.

No defensive player has won games single-handedly.

Derrick Thomas racked up seven sacks in one game and the team still lost.

Did you watch the 2011 Broncos?

I don't much care for football.

Why do you think DTs are so important?

If you can dominate the line of scrimmage, it's like your side of the ball is playing downhill against your opponent. It's a legit game-changer.

It's much, much tougher to do that on the defensive side of the ball, where you're starting out outnumbered, outsized and with more elaborate schemes being run at you every year.

If you're a clogger, all you have to do is to be incredibly hard to move. That's very important but it doesn't require a tremendous amount of skill or technique.

But if you're expected to play as a penetrating three-tech or as a five-tech in general, you're not only responsible for more space, you're going up against tackles more often and you're expected to do far more things, such as disrupting the pocket while still anchoring in the run game. It requires tremendous strength, athleticism, and technique.

In short, it's a game-changer in your favor and it's very, very hard to do.

That doesn't make them more important than the other 18 or 19 positions on the field.

Teams that spend high choices on DTs tend to do worse than teams that spend their high choices elsewhere.

Welp, you fail to explain why so I guess I'm just going to reiterate my previous post.

DTs need to be big and strong. Almost every DT in the league is over 300 pounds and could throw me across a room. A freak athlete at DT will not be able to positively affect his team to the same extent that a freak athlete at DE, LB, RB, WR, etc would. Drafting one first overall just makes no sense to me.

Here's something I posted earlier in a Geno thread, it's the percentage of top 5 picks over the last 20 years at different positions that went on to have a winning career during the time they were with the team that drafted them:

LB 67%
CB 50%
QB 42%
RB 36 %
OT 21%
DE 20%
DT 11%
WR 10%
S 0%

That's pretty much just correlation, not causation. This clearly seems to argue that corner and linebacker is the way to win in this league.

http://utah-concealed-carry-permit.c...ges/denied.jpg

So, explain why they correlate.

Are you seriously arguing that drafting linebackers is the most certain way of achieving future success in the NFL?

Linebackers?

How about getting a real sample size and getting back to me.

I don't recall writing that, no.

20 years of top 5 picks is 100 players. It's fairly difficult to get a larger sample size that would pertain to such a high pick.

Wait wait wait...

So we can use that information you've cited as clear evidence that defensive tackles are amongst the least important position to draft in the Top 5, but we can't equally argue the other way, that linebackers are among the most important positions to draft in the Top 5?

That barely improves the team, either now or in the future.

I'd always take the QB, unless it was similar to the 1996 draft.

If there is a LB worthy of such a high pick (Von, Willie McGinest) it is a very good way of improving your team.

I'd never take a DT or OL.

Completely agree at 1.1

Who wouldn't want an elite QB at 1.1? There is not argument there, right?

What is arguable is taking a QB at 1.1 who isn't elite. Please tell us how THAT improves a team? I can rattle off dozens of QBs who were supposed to be elite, were drafted at the top of the draft, and never did shit in the NFL.

So here were are...is Geno Smith an elite QB prospect? Perhaps. However, there are a lot of "experts" out there who have serious doubts.

This NFL draft reminds me of the NBA draft from 1989...Pervis Ellison was the first pick. The whole top end of that draft ranged from slightly above average to suck. I would kill to have had the first pick last year, or the first pick next year. Bad luck.

There is no player any of us could name for 1.1 who can't be ripped to shreds immediately.

Just like there are a number of cant miss prospects that were suppose to be elite and busted, there are a number of can miss prospects that weren't suppose to be elite and ended up being elite.

You'll never get ahead if you don't try.