Who's your guy in the 4th quarter when losing to an above .500 team: Alex or Aa
 

I pulled this link off of Reddit thinking this would be a great source of friendly banter and enlightened discussion. Who's more clutch in a comeback against winning teams? You want Captain Checkdown II- Electric Boogaloo or you want the Discount Double Check guy?



DISCUS.

10 in 7 years?

Stud.

Percentages.

Pretty sure some of his amazing "comebacks" feature his team scoring less than 20 points.

Basically his defense kept the game close and he finally put up a few points by the end of the game.

It's the old Jake Plummer fraud. Suck ass for 3 quarters, pull it out in the 4th, get lauded for your amazing comebacks!

Winning is winning C.E.

The guy set a 49'ers team record for 4th quarter comebacks in a season in 2011, and that team has had a couple of pretty decent QB's on their roster over the years.

Smith is better than people around here think and he'll finally get his chance with Reid here in Kansas City to prove that he's his own man. The poor bastard was saddled with some of the worst head coaches and offensive coordinators in recent NFL history and he showed he was a pretty capable QB when he finally experienced some stability and competency at the HC spot.

Both Reid and Smith are going to re-emerge here in KC. Both needed a change of scenery and they will be better for it in coming here. The coaching staff was well thought out and Dorsey seems to be a pretty good fit so far as GM. Pressure is off these guys as KC was the worst in the league last year, but there is talent on the team to exceed expectations.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a Kurt Warner at Arizona type of run out of Smith and Reid here over the next couple of years. They pieces are in place for such a situation IMO.

The idea he can bring a team from behind is really flawed. Just check out my sig.

:popcorn:

As long as he is better the Elvis Grbac im OK.

That same defense that allowed ~30 pts/game in the playoffs under Kaep....

You don't seem to understand that one of the reasons why the 49er defense was so good is because ASmith kept them off the field. Kaep is a homerun hitter; ASmith is a surgical striker.

Interesting topic heading post. Thanks for posting this, Discuss Thrower.

In data through Week 9 of 2012, both Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers had 25 opportunities for a 4th quarter comeback during their career. Smith was successful in 10 of those, while Rodgers was successful in 4.

For statistical significance testing of these data as presented, we would have to assume that the game results from the same QB are uncorrelated, which isn't quite right. But our results based on that assumption probably won't be too much different from what we would get if didn't have to make that assumption. In order to do the fancier analysis, we would need access to such information as how the QBs did in specific seasons (assuming that the probability of a given QB being successful varies from one season to the next as the QB matures and as each year's team gets better or worse).

Nevertheless, the Chi-square p-value for the difference in success proportions (computed by me, in Stata) is 0.059. This is not quite statistically significant at the conventional p < 0.050 threshold, so we wouldn't be able to claim that the differences we've seen so far in games reflect true differences in these QBs underlying probability of being successful. The plausible values for the true underlying difference (Smith minus Rodgers) in success probabilites that would be consistent with these data range from Rodgers being just barely better to Smith being a lot better (95% CI for difference in success proportion = -0.0001 to 0.49 ).

In the 17 opportunities against opponents with 0.500+ records that each QB coincidentally had, Smith was successful in 7 of those (41%), while Rodgers was never successful (0%).

No. What is flawed, is your refusal to consider all variables when babbling. How many of those were before harbaugh? That's all that really matters to be honest. Your very premise that Alex Smith sucks, is all pre harbaugh, and you want to act like his time with Harbaugh never happened.

must be easy to put on a 4th quarter drive knowing you have a defense that didnt surrender a 100 yard rusher or a rushing touchdown the whole ****ing year

you get a few mulligans knowing your defense can bail you out

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I remember when Herm trotted out this stupid line of bullshit about the Chiefs defense in 2006.

"The offense scored too fast!! The defense was bad because the offense was good!!"

The offense scoring makes it easier on a defense because it makes the other team more predictable.

Both of those are incorrect. They actually allowed 3 rushing touchdowns. One to the rams back up, back up qb, and lost their 100 yard rushing streak to Marshawn Lynch.

Which, also goes back to the way that Alex Smith, and the inept offense were able to control the clock, and the ball, and not turn it over, keeping the opposing team off the field. But hey, I just supply facts, you just continue on down your grumpy road to ass hole ville.

I'm expecting good things from Alex Smith, based on what I've seen of his performances living out here in 49ers country.

That's fair, I guess. But im sorry. In this day and age, I am pretty sure that the less chances you give Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, the better. Trying to have a shootout with those guys, is a pretty stupid idea. Hence why the 49ers defense suddenly got worse when Kaep took over, and people wanted to point the blame at Justin Smith getting hurt. Uh, well, okay, ill buy some of that, but a majority of it was the fact that the 49ers turned the ball over more, they scored quicker, they gave other teams more chances.

It would be stupid for the Chiefs, who have invested so much in the run game, and Oline, to try to get into shootouts with people, because its playing away from the strengths of the team. And, me included, I don't necessarily think that trying to have a shoot out with Peyton Manning, and his RECEIVING CORPS, which just happens to be a top 3 receiving corps in the nfl with the Packers, and Saints, is a good strategy to have.

If this were Bewitched. Alex would be the old Darren and Cassel would be the new gay Darren. Hope that helps.

The most important stat is winning, which is based on the point total at the end of the game. A fourth quarter comeback is nice, but to be in the situation where a fourth quarter comeback is necessary means that your team got outscored up to that point.

This.

And once the HC realized his defense was $#itting its pants (see last 11 games for SF) He decided to make a move at QB. He had to.

He no longer had the defense to play Martyball. His secondary was puking pts and his front 7 wasn't getting pressure/turnovers.

He needed that extra offensive spark he hoped the Kap could provide...

Not specifically related to the Rogers vs. Smith debate, but I don't like that they defined a comeback opportunity as every time the offense/quarterback having possession in the fourth quarter while trailing by 1-8 points and then considering the only outcome as W or L.

All of these are treated the same:

1. not leading a comeback when down by 2 points with 3:00 left on the clock
2. not leading a comeback when down by 8 with 0:15 left on the clock
3. not leading a comeback when down by 8, getting the score and the conversion to tie, and then losing on a FG given up by your defense.

Steve Bono = Best QB in Chiefs history...

LMAO.... All that really matters are his stats after Harbaugh? That's convenient...

But if that's the case, we should expect Alex to regress this year, since the difference maker Harbaugh won't be coaching him anymore. Bummer.....

What? lol. Okay Rausch. This is complete and utter bullshit. the 49ers other than the Giants game, from about weeks 4 till when alex got hurt in week 9, were DESTROYING PEOPLE.

Week 4. Jets 34-0 win
week 5 Buffalo 45-3 win
week 6 nyg loss 3-26
week 7 seattle 13-6, win
week 8 Arizona 24-3 Win alex smith goes for 18/19 defense gives up nothing.

those are the last 5 games alex smith started. What the **** are you talking about. I really respect your takes normally, but this was just shit you pulled out of your ass. The defense started going to shit weeks 15, 16, and 17. Actually played badly against aaron Rodgers in the divisional round of the playoffs, played like crap against the falcons, and played badly in the super bowl. The qb switch had nothing to do with Jim Harbaugh wanting to protect his defense. Kaep was just his guy. his hand chosen drafted guy, that they moved up to get. This is just stupid bullshit.

Well, it will either prove one of two things. either, Jim is that good, or perhaps that with good coaching, players can reach their potential.

I don't know how that is going to work out. But, I mean, by all means, Mike Singletary, and Mike Nolan have been stellar head coaches after Alex Smith got them fired............

It's called what-have-u-done-for-me-lately... which is all that matters. RT Anthony Davis gave up around 30 sacks in his first 2 years. Now, he is regarded as one of the better OTs in the game. So, do those first 2 years matter? now that he's good? think about it...

How many of those games were their last 11 games?

I don't give a **** what Alex started. I didn't mention that.

The last 11 games (including playoffs.)

The SF defense got worse as the season went on (both Smith and Kap) and their HC was smart enough to make a change when he did.

Assuming Team Scores 24 points in both circumstances, is it better that they score those 24 points with 29 minutes or for 32 minutes in time of possession?

"What-have-u-done-for-me-lately" AKA "Throw-out-bad-stats-that-show-my-opinion-as-being-reeruned"

No Rausch. This is what you said. They made the switch when Alex Smith got a concussion in the FIRST quarter of the rams game coming off their buy. Their defense hadn't given up a touchdown in two weeks and he decided to stay with Kaep. Now, while its true the team struggled in that Rams game, their defense the following week on Monday night football, destroyed the bears, Aldon Smith had 5.5 sacks, and all was great in the world. The next week after that, they went to new Orleans, and the defense demolished the Saints. I just told you, that the defense didn't actually start going to shit until the new England game, and that was only in the second half, and continued the rest of the season. That had zero to do with making the qb switch because that was already done 4 weeks earlier. I showed you about the games that alex smith had started because the defense was NUMBER ****ING ONE IN THE NFL UP UNTIL THAT POINT, and didn't actually take a shit until WELL AFTER KAEP WAS THE QB.

I don't mind the Kaep is a better qb arguments, Kaep is Jims guy, Alex Smith sucks, but don't try to use the defense sucking, as justification as to why the qb switch was made. That's just dumb horse shit.

You...Betcha!

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uh, or that two players got much better under great coaching? This is difficult to understand?

Again, he didn't do this.

49ers third down conversion percentage? Shit.

It's a complete myth that the 49ers defense benefited in ANY way from Alex Smith.

It makes no material difference, and TOP is an antiquated concept anyway. You can run more plays in those 29 minutes and take more real time away than in those 32 minutes if the clock is consistently running.

#1 quarterback on 1st down. Oh, but let's overlook that and focus on the particular numbers that strengthen your agenda. :p

I'm pulling for Alex Smith, and I really don't understand the mindset of those who would rather just bitch about him being our QB.

1. Smith has talent.
2. Smith has shown that he can be a successful NFL QB with proper coaching.

I like the fact that he has a huge chip on his shoulder. Dude did everything that he was asked to do in SF and got benched. I would not be surprised if Smith ends up having a better year in KC than Kaep has in SF this year.

:clap:

Six of the top ten leaders in TOP made the playoffs in 2012... I don't agree it's totally antiquated given the Ravens won the SB and was 30th in the stat.

Which would be week 10, right?

I'd argue, and would correct myself, that the last 12 games started to show the weakness in the D.

Their pass D became suspect and their pass rush was feast or famine.

It had everything to do with the QB move.

The defense had shown it was no longer dominant and Kap had proven enough to make the HC think he could spark points when there was no play out there.

This year the 49'ERS won't be a top 10 defense. The Squawks and Lambs will both schred them. And they play a 1st place schedule that puts them up vs. the best in the NFC...

Question:

Were the Chiefs better in TOP with Vermeil or with Herm in 2006?

Team #1: Explosive offense, poor defense: TOP 32:08

Team #2: Ground and pound offense, mediocre defense: TOP 30:30

Your argument is wrong on two fronts:

#1) Having a ball control offense doesn't actually result in a huge TOP advantage
#2) TOP doesn't actually matter that much anyway. Plays run is more important.

Or a coach figured out how to work around their deficiencies. The QB was still averaging less than 200 yards a game during the time you're focusing on, so you can't really claim the player got much better. Your argument still hinges on Harbaugh...

My point is, and it pains me to say it, that Herm isn't necessarily wrong in that you can score "too fast" in a game. Plays run is a better indicator of success, but you still need to be able control the clock in situations.

How can a person be so stupid as to focus on yardage like this? It's all about efficiency. Can you really not get that?

Take the SF/NYJ game, for instance. We obliterated the Jets on the ground... racked up 250 rushing yards and methodically owned them. Why? maybe the QB was reading the D and orchestrating the right calls?

... because Alex didn't need to chuck up the ball, he should be.. punished? I swear, you people have to be the product of inbreeding +/or cracked out parents.

LMAO... It's all about whatever stats you need to cherry pick....

Hopefully we won't need to chuck the ball either. I'm sure Andy Reid's offense will focus on running....

Why did their defense take a huge step back with Tattoo Boy behind center? That is a legit question. They weren't the same team at all when they changed QB's.

I agree with you in the example of the four minute drill, but only there.

No. It's not about cherry-picking stats at all. My point is... regardless of STATS.. the thing that matters most is efficient play that leads to winning. It's this candy-ass football fantasy BS that has thoroughly poisoned some minds. Throw for 500 yards? Throw for 200 yards. Whatever... just play efficiently and win!

You don't really need to look at particular numbers. How about yards and touchdowns? The two most important ones? Alex Smith...severely ****ing lacking.

This isn't rocket science. Alex Smith is limited, and we're going to be disappointed when we face a team that can put up more than 24 points.

This limited quarterback led his team to a special teams fumble away from the SB... on a team in their first season of new coaching... during a lockout offseason... while being a top 10 QB in efficiency.

Yards and TDs are the important numbers? Yeah... no... I'll go with WINS. I think that wins are what it's all about. Like Justin Smith says... "Stats are for losers."

( they are fun and we all like to manipulate them to fit an agenda... but when you scrape away all the BS... wins are all that matters )

Yeah.. My mind is poisoned for wanting a QB who can average >200yds passing in a game. All the time you hear Patriots fans and Packer fans and Saints fans complaining about all those passing yards, and yearning for a quaint little 200yd passing day and a 12-7 win. Candy ass passing stats are overrated...

Yeah, ideally, great if the QB dazzles us with a aerial show. But really, would you rather a 500 yard passing game accompanied by a roller-coaster loss? or a 200 yard passing game accompanied by a methodical win?

The fantasy football mindset ruins every damn discussion about the game. Finishing in the top of the league in turnover differential is still the greatest factor in winning games. Hell they go to a SuperBowl without 2 fluke fumbled punt returns.

How is playing loose and winning 28-24 better than playing clean and winning 17-13?

A win is certainly a win. But that does not mean we should be striving for winning in a less than ideal fashion. A 500 yard passing game gives infinitely higher chance of victory. The 49ers canned Smith because Kaep gives them a better chance at higher passing stats. It's as simple as that...

Smith before Rogers? You guys are hilarious!

I would take Aaron Rogers one thousand times out of one thousand in any situation and I wouldn't even need one second to make the decision.

Nobody is saying anything like that. It does appear that he is better when the game is on the line though than people will ever give him credit for...

LMAOLMAOLMAOLMAOLMAOLMAOLMAOLMAOLMAOLMAO Get out.

You can't read apparently

Stats are not for losers. An extreme example, two QB's, one for his career has 0 touchdowns, and 100 interceptions, and another has 100 td's and 0 int's. In your logic these stats do not matter whatsoever to speculate on future performance and you would be fine with either QB. Go **** yourself.

As it turned out, Kaep was always going to be "the guy." Sure, we drafted him in rd 2, but Harbaugh scammed Alex really well with his BS. Kaepernick is clearly a more.. explosive weapon at QB.. I get that. That's not so much a knock on Alex as it is a compliment to Kaep.

I just find the razzle dazzle fans annoying. They don't study the game. They just get their rocks off on the big plays.. like stupid little kids with blank looks on their faces.. and well, that's okay... annoying but okay. There is no enforceable blueprint for fans.

I prefer the cerebral QBs that methodically drive the field. The chuck and duck backyard ballers make me feel like I'm watching the AFL.

Will people stop saying this?

Alex Smith sucked ass in that game.

QBs have bad games... it happens. Crabtree and VD were focused on, and injuries put other scrub receivers on the field for us. Giants defense was on fire at that time. Eli also played a shit game, and was very lucky to not have thrown 2 stupid INTs. Shitty, ugly game by all. That still doesn't lessen my point about what Alex was able to do with a year 1 offense.

I prefer QB's that can get the ball in the damn endzone with competence and regularity and has that killer instinct ala Joe Flacco in the SB. Someone who has the ability to make game changing plays. I'll take killer instinct and competence and a 12-4 record any day over your "methodically drive the field" 5-11.

Compare the stats of AS to Eli's, they played basically the same game.

Does that mean Eli sucks also?

lol. Again where you fail. you are assuming that because the 49ers, regardless of qb, because Kaep struggled on 4th down as well, that the 49ers went 3 and out every possession. We both know that not to be true. Alex Smith over the past two years was number one on 1st down efficiency. You, are either very dumb, or in denial. I see it as somewhere in the middle. There is no way a guy who completes 70 percent of his passes, and has a total qbr, the espn version, not the regular rating, can be rated as high as he was if it is as simple as alex smith sucks on 3rd down, there for he sucks period. Even your bible tells you, that you are incorrect.

Hey Gekko you realize Flacco's playoff an SB run was an epic once in a lifetime streak, like record breaking? It aslo involved a ridiculous streak of busted coverage and WR circus catches.

He has no chance of coming close that again which is why Baltimore giving him the entire bank is hilarious.

Clay is getting housed. What up Clay?

It had absolutely nothing to do with the Defense. It had everything to do with taking the governor off of the Offense. That's where the truth is. The defense fell apart because of turnovers, and a coach calling off the dogs way too soon. And then Justin Smith got hurt, and no one picked up the slack. The qb move has zero bearing as to why the defense fell apart down the stretch other than the fact that if you factor in who, and where they played. At New England, at Seattle, Arizona, GB, At Atlanta, and super bowl vs the Ravens. They played some very VERY good offenses. They needed to be able to score when they needed to score. that's why the qb move was made. My whole inclination is that while the ability to score went up with Kaep, the defense got worse, and so did the run game. And the stats back up both of those points.

Well, yes, and yes. It hinges on harbaugh. Why? Because he is a guy who wants to run the ball. Did it at Stanford with the best qb in the country, still ran more with Kaep at the controls than they passed. Kaep only had one 300 yard game in his starts. That was the super bowl where he had to pass.

You do the math.

Good point. Especially since Tom Brady hasn't won a super bowl since 2005............Passing yards, clearly are everything.

What made Kaep "The guy" and Alex "Not the guy"? Alex was drafted higher.

It's nothing but talent, and the ability to put up superior passing stats. You simply can't argue anything else. You like to skirt around it and act like Alex was jilted or "Scammed". But the truth is that Kaep is much more talented. QB talent drives the game right now. Harbaugh knows this. You can prefer shitty QBs if you want, that's your prerogative. But it's also the reason you're not a head coach and Harbaugh just took his team to the SB with a guy he benched Smith for. Not sure what "Study" you're doing regarding the current NFL. But a head coach who just took his team to the SB completely disagrees with you, and he happens to be the only person who could get any results out of Alex Smith over the last 8 years. So the guy that knows Alex Smith better than anyone else, decided to replace him. Let that sink in....

Eli Manning has 25 career games of at least 300 yards.

Alex Smith has 3.

Die in a fire.

ehhhhhh. Now, I don't buy that he scammed Alex. Not at all actually. I do believe he believed in Kaep, but nothing Kaep did his first season, which was Alex Smiths first season, led anyone to believe that Kaep was going to be ready as soon as he was. Did Harbs handle the switching over poorly? I think so, but that part of me that thinks that, wants to think well how would Jim Harbaugh the player, of thought of the switch, you know, because you don't lose your job to injury. But, when I thought about it some more, Jim Harbaugh the coach, and actually Ray Ratto put it this way when Jim 'alledgedly" was going after peyton, that its jims job as the head coach, to find the best players, and if peyton manning calls you, and asks you to come see him, you don't say no. He said also that if Jim could find a better player than Patrick Willis, he would. That's what great coaches do.

They gave Kaep a trial run against the bears on Monday night. Had Kaep proven that he wasn't ready, they would of went back to Alex. They gave Kaep another chance against the saints. He was a little erratic because he fumbled the snap 4 times, but between the defense, and big plays, Kaep proved that he could handle it. Kaep, was Jims guy. Alex was his care taker. I think Alex knew that. But what hurt Alex was that by doing the right thing, admitting he had a concussion, Jim in that way, turned his back on him. Business, is cut throat. Loyalty only goes as far as it goes until someone better comes along, then that loyalty leaves.

They say it all the time. When a new regimen comes in, they want their own guy. Andy Reid, has said that Alex Smith is his guy. We will see if that leads to success.

This is after all, the first time since he was drafted someone has put this much faith in Alex Smith.

Im not sure if you are seriously asking, or trolling, but I am going to answer this anyways.

Alex Smith, was the only vet qb during the lockout, that Jim Harbaugh could get his playbook to. Kaep, was the young qb that Jim scouted, went to see, met with, learned about, and decided was his qb because he has what Jim has. A work ethic, and desire to compete, just like Jim. Alex doesn't have that. he is a hard worker, but he doesn't have that outward competitiveness like Jim, and Colin have. That is why Colin is Jims guy, and not alex smith.

Do I really need to talk about the arm, the athleticism, and that stuff? Cause I feel we have beaten that poor horse to oblivion.

your dick that small that all you can think of his high passing yards?

Rhetorical question....the board knows the answer tiny.

Is this post supposed to be support for Alex?

The SB featured two QBs throwing for close to 300 yards last year.

The year before the winner had 296.

The year before the winner had 304.

The year before the winner had 288.

Alex Smith seems to be a fish out of water in this modern NFL if he ever wants to win a SB, don't you think?

He can only quote numbers and make videos. That is literally all he does.

How many career 290 yard passing games does Smith have?