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Peyton vs. Perfection (Denver vs KC breakdown) MMQB
It's the Game Of The Year so far: the prolific Denver Broncos vs. the stingy Kansas City Chiefs. Can Peyton Manning and company hand K.C. its first loss?
http://mmqb.si.com/2013/11/14/denver...eyton-manning/ This AFC West showdown between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs is as good as it gets for football in November. No division rivals have ever squared off with fewer than two losses between them so late in the season. The Broncos (8-1) are scoring an obscene 41.2 points per game, by far the best in the NFL. The Chiefs (9-0) are giving up just 12.3 points per contest, also a league best. As Jack Nicholson and Diane Keaton once taught us, something’s gotta give. Broncos offense vs. Chiefs defense 1. Pressuring Peyton A hot topic right now is Peyton Manning’s protection. It hasn’t been great in recent weeks, which is to be somewhat expected given that anchor Ryan Clady (IR) has been replaced by Chris Clark. The 28-year-old undrafted journeyman has given up a few critical blind-side hits, though he’s not the only culprit on this struggling line. Right tackle Orlando Franklin also has been caught flat-footed a few times. Manning, with precise pocket movement and rapid progression-read ability, is generally able to overcome shoddy protection. But two bum ankles—plus copious bumps and bruises on his 37-year-old-body—make eluding pressure a taller order these days. The Chiefs know how to apply pressure. Tamba Hali and Justin Houston give defensive coordinator Bob Sutton the rare privilege of scheming with dynamic rushers from both edges. One of the two almost always faces one-on-one pass blocking. Both might see it frequently at the same time on Sunday night, as Manning prefers to go with a minimum five-man protection in order to have five eligible receivers at his disposal. (This is one reason why running back Knowshon Moreno catches so many short passes.) Kansas City has been one of the most complex and successful blitzing teams in the NFL this season, particularly on 3rd-and-long when Sutton loves to play dime and send speedy corners and safeties after the quarterback. Though a sizeable chunk of Kansas City’s league-leading 36 sacks have come out of complex pressure packages, don’t expect Sutton to use a lot of them against the Broncos. Most defensive coordinators refrain from blitzing Manning. The Chargers had some success with it, but they only called for pressure in the second half after it became apparent that their defensive backs could not compete with Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker and Julius Thomas. Kansas City’s defensive backs can challenge those receivers. 2. The Man-to-Man Matchups The closest any defense has come to slowing Denver was Indianapolis’s, when cornerbacks Vontae Davis, Greg Toler and Darius Butler stymied Manning’s receivers for most of the first three quarters in Week 7. (Injuries to Davis and Butler changed Indy’s fortunes down the stretch.) The Broncos know how to beat man coverage—they’ve mastered barely legal pick plays and intertwined crossing patterns—but they have yet to face a man-coverage defense as sturdy as the Chiefs’. At the same time, Kansas City hasn’t faced an offense with these types of weapons. The following individual matchups will likely determine the outcome of the game: Outside: CBs Sean Smith and Marcus Cooper vs. WRs Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker Smith is lanky and physical, though he’s been a bit shaky as of late. (Receiver Stevie Johnson was right when he said that Smith’s 98-yard pick-six against Buffalo was “lucky.” Smith was in position to make that interception only because Johnson had juked him so far sideways off the line of scrimmage.) When Smith plays with discipline, he’s one of the best boundary defenders in the game. But if he gets antsy against double moves—something Thomas and Decker perform extremely well—he could wind up in trouble. On the other side, Cooper, a seventh-round pick of the Niners this past spring, is a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate. He has an innate sense for playing both the ball and the receiver in isolated coverage against vertical routes on the outside. He also has good closing quickness when working back to the ball, especially for someone who is 6-2. For all of Cooper’s merits, don’t be surprised if Manning still tests him early. The young corner did get beat twice due to missteps in his press-jam technique in Kansas City’s last game. Inside: CB Brandon Flowers vs. slot receiver Wes Welker Since Week 5, Flowers, one of the NFL’s best boundary corners, has been playing the slot in nickel and dime. So far, the results have been stellar. Flowers is a surprisingly good blitzer, and more importantly, he knows how to apply his physicality in the wider spaces that come with playing inside. Most corners, even elite ones, can’t do that. We’ll find out on Sunday whether Flowers really is a slot aficionado. He’s yet to face an inside receiver of Welker’s caliber. Inside: SS Eric Berry vs. TE Julius Thomas Berry has transformed from a liability to an asset covering tight ends—though he hasn’t been severely tested except for when he controlled Jason Witten one-on-one in Week 2. The Broncos have the most dynamic tight end in the AFC not named Rob Gronkowski. And their system does a good job getting Thomas open by design. 3. Building Offense Contrary to popular belief, the Broncos don’t do many complicated things offensively. Instead, they do many simple things really well. One is called “building offense,” meaning they use certain plays early in the game to set up other plays later in the game. Defenders think they’re spotting something familiar, but they’re actually being set up to be exploited. The good thing about being a man-based defense (like the Chiefs) is you’re a less susceptible to this sort of deception because coverage defenders don’t see the ball or route designs to begin with; their focus is solely on their man. This doesn’t mean the Broncos won’t try to build offense. Instead of doing it with a combination of two or three different routes, they’ll do it on a more individualized basis. We saw a great example of this with Demaryius Thomas scoring two touchdowns at San Diego. http://simmqb.files.wordpress.com/20...pg?w=800&h=533 http://simmqb.files.wordpress.com/20...pg?w=800&h=533 Kansas City’s cornerbacks must concentrate on getting stops, not interceptions. If they start cheating against Denver’s routes, they’ll get burned by a twist. Chiefs offense vs. Broncos defense There’s a perception that Denver’s defense is iffy, maybe even porous. That’s only because its two bad performances happened to coincide with the team’s two most-watched games: Week 5 at Dallas, and Week 7 at Indy. Take out those contests and this group is allowing a respectable 21.6 points per game. The Chiefs lack the same offensive firepower that the Cowboys or Colts have. Their system hinges on Jamaal Charles being able to turn the outside corner in the ground game, and converting a few screens into first downs. Their passing game is limited, mainly because Alex Smith is committed to doing whatever it takes to not lose games. So far he’s been successful in this regard, but in order for the undefeated Chiefs to be genuine Super Bowl contenders, he at some point will have to actually make plays to win a game. This doesn’t mean making a gutsy play late in the fourth quarter; it means having the fortitude to consistently take advantage of big-play opportunities. Smith is nowhere close to doing that right now. The TV camera angles that get beamed into living rooms across the country might show Smith not throwing interceptions. What those camera angles don’t show, however, is him missing wide-open receivers at the intermediate levels. They also don’t show him abandoning plays before receivers have finished their routes. We can see this, though, thanks to the All-22 film. http://simmqb.files.wordpress.com/20...pg?w=800&h=388 http://simmqb.files.wordpress.com/20...pg?w=800&h=479 http://simmqb.files.wordpress.com/20...pg?w=800&h=465 http://simmqb.files.wordpress.com/20...pg?w=800&h=448 As this game probably will prove, Kansas City’s defense can’t keep holding opponents to under 20 points while also creating points of its own each week. Kansas City’s offense (i.e. Smith) will have to get sharper. |
Very informative. Would read again.
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This makes Smith look like a scaredy cat. We will not win in Denver unless he pulls the trigger on longer throws. He must know this and coaches know it for sure. If they watch film all the time then why the hell is it not getting better? He must have zero confidence in his ability to get the ball there on target.
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Nice. go on....
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A pick play is a pick play. So what exactly is a barely legal pick play?
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I really hope that they have spent this week looking at the film and showing Alex the receivers running wide open. I know on some plays the pocket collapses too fast but in all those screen shots he has a nice pocket to throw from. We have seen some longer passes lately so hopefully that trend continues, especially when the oppurtunity is there for a throw that isn't forced.
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Those shots of Alex missing open receivers downfield make me want to puke.
But.. But.. But our receivers don't get separation! Give me a ****ing break. |
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Look, I like what Alex has brought to the team...especially after where we were last year. But at the same time, the guy has got to take some shots. I think he'll do that this week because he knows he has to, but they have been there all season. In the Texans game, I lost count of how many times Bowe, Avery, McCluster, and even Jenkins were literally UNCOVERED over the top. |
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Yes, Alex... open it up on Sunday. You are the QB, you throw the ball. Make it happen.
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Also, I FYP. Check out this link: http://www.grammar-monster.com/easil...youre_your.htm |
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I agree, nice post. |
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That concerns me about this game. I'm fine with none of our RBs getting more than a dozen touches in a game. I'd like to see more from CJ Anderson quite honestly. Hillman better be non-existant, that guy really has butterfingers. Quote:
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That's why he's skittish, that's why he's abandoning routes. His eyes are on the wrong level - watching the line of scrimmage and working backwards from there. His fortitude in the pocket right now worries the hell out of me. It's not that I think he's too scared to throw it 15 yards downfield, I think the line is in his head and he's not willing to stand in and wait for those throws to develop. He's essentially looking for the first opportunity to get that ball the hell out of his hands or scramble where he can at least see the guys that are trying to hit him. Ultimately the shell-shock he seems to have developed over the first 6-8 weeks will be his undoing. He needs to quit that shit, stand in there and make the play. |
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I imagine the poor line play is in his head a bit... but this is also who he is. |
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But the old saw used to be "look at how many sacks he takes, he holds onto the ball way too long!!!" I don't see that at all. I see a guy that's constantly looking to get rid of the ball or get the hell out of the pocket. He's still always going to be someone that would prefer throw the short passes to the long ones, but he's not naturally gunshy; he used to be pretty confident back there in holding onto the football. When he's confident in the pocket, I think he'll make the easy passes downfield. Right now, he's scared back there so he's not even looking at the easy ones downfield; he bails way too soon on the routes and next thing you know he's on the run or has foolishly rolled out of the pocket to cut down half his field. He used to be risk-averse; if the deep throw wasn't wide open, he's not going to make it. What I'm seeing now is someone that doesn't even get to risk averse, he's just playing scared. That was absolutely not a knock against him in SF. |
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And that's why getting new receivers or better linemen isn't going to help Alex improve.
He's not even taking full advantage of the ones we already have. |
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These speak to my concerns with Alex Smith from Day 1. And I don't share your belief that a cleaner pocket will allow him the impetus to make those throws and make those plays.... because he's NEVER had that. Alex Smith has a long track record as an NFL QB of not being willing to throw into "NFL OPEN" windows. Of checking down too early/easily, when there are bigger plays to be made downfield. All-22 film breakdown backs that up. I don't think fixing the Chiefs OL is going to do anything to reverse those tendencies. It's just who he is. Andy Reid seems to think he can reverse them. I hope he can, but that's all it is... hope. |
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and DUncan brings up another good point... that's just who Alex is. |
Of those photos, the first one doesn't really bother me - if he starts passing on open 12-15 yard passes to Dwyane Bowe on the chance that Dexter McCluster is breaking open deeper, we're ****ed. Bowe was his first read there, IMO and Bowe was open - so he hit him.
The 2nd photo bothers me more than any of the other ones. There is no justification at all for him bailing out of that pocket. His linemen did a fantastic job and he had Bowe past the sticks for a first down (I don't love that throw to Avery; the corner in the short zone is reading the QB, he'd have likely been waiting to break on that throw using the boundry to leverage coverage; that was a tough pass). On the third photo that isn't as easy a pass as is being portrayed there, but it's one you'd like to see him try. The FS is waiting to close on that throw. Though ultimately I have to wonder what his progressions were - afterall, it looks like Bowe is just starting his route upfield before the throw went to Charles. Smith abandoned the route altogether. Was that based on a pre-snap read? I almost wonder if Philly didn't fake a blitz there and fool Smith into dumping to his hot read. The 4th one also irritates me and I remember that one in real-time. It was the same damn throw to McCluster or Bowe, he just had to put another 8 yards of oomph on the throw to Bowe and he chickened out. It was yet another 1st down left on the field through skittish QB play. He's feeling phantom pressure up the middle on that play and rather than stand in and deliver the first down pass to Bowe, he's already looking to bail out of the pocket. The 2nd picture is the most annoying one to me but the 4th picture most clearly demonstrates my concern - in SF he stands in and completes that pass for the first down. That's the kind of intermediate throw he needs to make for us to be successful. As this season has progressed, however, he's gotten worse and worse about feeling pressure that isn't there and bailing. He's been a drive killer on several occasions because of it. |
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It's why Montee still gets playing time and Ronnie Hillman doesn't dress anymore. |
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Should we see all the examples of WR not being able to get any separation? I see that a lot when watching the games. I am curious as to what will happen if we get behind and have to move the ball fast. I don't know if that changes his mindset or not. His highest situational QBR is when we have been behind. Further more I watch other games and you see most QB's miss opportunities every game. Yea Manning, Brees, and the upper tier guys don't do it much but nobody ever claimed Smith is that level. He needs to improve but its not like he needs to make a huge leap, he just needs to make a few more plays a game. |
If ESPN says we suck, may as well just forfeit.
oh well |
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Being 33rd in yards per completion (only MIKE GLENNON is worse) is abysmal. That INCLUDES YAC, son. What the hell are you on? |
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However, this also raises serious concerns as to whether or not it would make a damn bit of difference. Smith's leaving a ton of plays on the field right now. His generally conservative nature leads to many of those to begin with but now he's playing skittish football as well and it's becoming a serious problem. I like the guy. I like the acquisition. But there are a lot of things to be concerned about with him right now and he needs to fix them if we hope to make some noise in the playoffs. |
This same debate happened over Matt Cassel not too long ago.
Some people are fine with a "nice guy" as the Chiefs QB, and some people want "more". |
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Ball has had all of 21 carries since week 5, including 0 vs the Colts - a game where points and turnovers really mattered. I would hope that he isn't dropping the ball when he's carried it 1, 3, 0, 12 and 5 times over the last 5 games. |
Here's the last 15 Super Bowl Champions and where they ranked in yards per completion:
Flacco #11 Eli #3 Rodgers #4 Brees #9 Roethlisberger #11 Eli #18 Peyton #8 Roethlisberger #1 Brady #5 Brady #17 Johnson #20 Brady #23 Dilfer #24 Warner #3 Elway #4 Alex has to make a quantum leap next year (it's not happening this year). Period. Especially given the trend over the last 10 years. He needs to at least get to an average YPC. Throw the ball down the field. It wins games. |
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Moreno ... since the Dallas game is averaging 15 carries and almost 6 receptions a game - with 6 total TDs in that stretch. It pains me to say it, but he has played well. I still don't trust him though.
Moreno has about 257 fewer yards on 57 less touches with 1 more TD than Charles on the season, and considering Moreno's history, that's a pleasant surprise. 123 carries / 521 yds / 8 TD (55% of total team rushing yds) 37 rec / 336 yards / 1 TD (10% of total team receiving yds) 170 carries / 725 yards / 6 TD (68% of total team rushing yds) 47 rec / 389 yards / 2 TD (20% of total team receiving yds) Both are avg about 4.2 per rush and Moreno has about a yard more per reception. Lots of ways to poke at the numbers, but Denver's #1 priority on defense is to focus in on and contain Charles. It's not easy by any means, but it can be done. Charles has 3 games where he's rushed for over 90 yards (only 1 over 100). And, as a receiver, he has 3 games over 50 yds receiving. In 8 games, Charles has combined for over 100 total yards - he's the offense, bottom line... stop him and you can defeat the Chiefs in a boring low scoring game. |
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Hell, if we were going by college production - both Hillman and Ball should be an unbelievable duo based on their last few college seasons, hell 2011 was awesome for both. But, it's not college. |
Not only have Hillman and Ball has ball security issues, they can't be trusted in pass protection and aren't as good of hands out of the backfield. For as suck ass as Moreno is, he's elevated his play a bit this season. He still sucks but at least he's complete.
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Let's look at the same list by YPA rather than YPC: Elway - #5 Warner - #1 Dilfer - #26 Brady - #12 Johnson - #5 Brady - #8 Brady - #9 Ben - #1 Peyton - #4 Eli - #26 Ben - #17 Brees - #3 Rodgers - #2 Eli - #4 Flacco - #14 The average rank for SB winners by Yards per attempt? 9th. So if anything, being ranked highly by YPA is even more important in determining who a SB winner is. No, "THROW IT DEEP!!!!!" is not 'what wins games'. There are a myriad of ways to win games in this league and efficient passing that yields a high YPA is equally effective. The problem isn't that Smith's not bombing away. The problem is he's not making the 10-12 yard throws that will keep drives alive and allow Reid to run the offense he wants to run. Smith's nature fits Reid's plan fairly well. However, this bailing out of the pocket bullshit he's doing does not. |
Aren't Smith's YPC and YPA both abysmal?
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Alex is equally pathetic in YPA so I'm not sure what your point is.
We need a more productive passing game, by a large margin. And I am not talking about deep balls. Alex needs to hit those 15-25-yard throws consistently for us to have a chance. |
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But your earlier position was that there's no point in improving the line or the WRs because he won't use them. Well he was elite in YPA with a line full of All-Pro guys in 2012. And he was average in YPA in 2011. Yes, Alex Smith is greatly improved when he's not worrying about his protection. The actual eye test shows that, as did all those nifty little PFF metrics you ignore whenever they don't support your crap. Yes, this season's Alex Smith is struggling mightily, but it's due in large part to a line that simply can't protect, especially up the middle. That's catastrophic to a QB confidence and impacts everything he tries to do. And if you're now defining 'throwing the ball downfield' as 15 yard passes, well that's a hell of an about-face. |
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Where Denver uses 'per game' offense building, Andy Reid has been using 'per season' offense building.
He's shown the world that Alex is nothing but a check down manager. But this week will be different! This week Andy takes the reins off of his Superman QB, Alex takes off his glasses... And unleashes his POWER onto the helpless victims once known as the Denver Broncos!!! Hells Yeah! |
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And it was reflected in his again pathetic yards per completion. And that was partially intermediate throws, too, because he did that less than 2010 Matt ****ing Cassel. |
From what I have seen thus far this season of KC's offense (admittedly limited), there have been instances where receivers get open but Smith doesn't seem to see them. Is this solely because of pressure (or anticipated pressure) or is Smith just not identifying them?
If Smith gets even a decent passing game going, look out... I just don't believe KC can continue to lean so heavily on the defense and special teams and continue to succeed at such a high level the remainder of the season... Don't get me wrong, I also feel Denver need to step it up significantly defensively if they expect to do anything at all in the post season. |
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Just figured I'd post this here instead of making a whole new thread for another article about the game.
Probably one of the more heady writers that seem convinced about the Chiefs, and boldly putting it out there that he thinks it will be the Donkeys that will have to sweat it out facing us given our personnel matchups for Sunday's game. Enjoy! Quote:
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You call it deceptive because you swear you have to throw deep to win. Smith didn't. He was efficient. He won. What's deceptive about that? You may think the results are an outlier, but if a guy can go complete his passes as frequently as Smith did last year, living from 8-12 yards and in will be fine. Actual results support this. The problem is that he's turned into a chickenshit that won't finish his delivery and won't wait for his routes to develop. |
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It's a combination of things. We switched blocking schemes this offseason and our 1.1 RT was a walking abortikn for about the first seven weeks of the season. So despite spending shitloads of high picks on all five of our starting linemen, they're still young and learning a new system. Maybe they're out of scheme or still learning, who knows, but they suck at pass protection and often can't clear out any lanes for Jamaal to run as evidenced by his shitty YPC this season (which, coincidentally, is actually right around league average- he's that amazing).
So basically you have a running game that struggles to get going until the 4th quarter and a QB that's forced to run scared often and stare down the rush, feeling phantom pressure when there isn't any. Combine that with the fact that Smith has never really been known as a guy to take risks and you have a passing game that basically consists of check downs to backs. I think Jamaal has more catches than either Bowe or Avery do targets. Something needs to change and as much as Smith pisses me off, I realize that it needs to start with the offensive line. EDIT: This was a response to MileHighFish |
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He is the luckiest son of a bitch alive. |
Sounding like Denver will employ a lot of 2 tight end sets in order to try to slow down the KC rush. Doing so means Welker will spend a lot of time watching from the sidelines but Denver is going to do everything they can to protect Manning. I am seeing a lot of check downs to Ball/Moreno as well as a healthy does of quick screens to let the WR's try to make something happen.
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Adam Schein did a great job of summing up the post I made a couple of days ago when I first came back.
Smith really only cares about one thing: winning. And that's something he's done plenty of lately, compiling a 29-6-1 mark in the last 36 NFL games he's started. Smith told me about the quick bond he formed with new coach Andy Reid; it began with their first phone conversation, when Reid quizzed Smith on a play. (Smith, of course, had the answer Reid was looking for.) These two are attached at the hip, seeing the game the same way. You can call Smith a game manager or question his arm. I call Smith a winner, someone who doesn't make mistakes with the game on the line. This is a guy who simply will not turn over the ball, will not give Manning extra opportunities. Smith -- reflecting the Chiefs as a whole right now -- oozes confidence. |
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Fisher I actually do see some signs of life in. I've seen improvement and I've seen clear technical flaw could be fixed pretty easily with reps. Allen, OTOH, just stinks on ice. He looks awful. |
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Again, explain to me what was 'deceptive' about Smith's 7.5 YPA average over his final 2 seasons in SF? |
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