Mellinger: Alex Smith is out of excuses, and he needs to deliver his best season
 

Though I know this thread will undoubtedly turn into yet another Alex Smith sucks bitch fest, I thought this was a well-thought-out and reasonable take on the entire Alex Smith situation.

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt...#storylink=cpy

Alex Smith is out of excuses, and he needs to deliver the best season of his career
BY SAM MELLINGER
smellinger@kcstar.com

Alex Smith can thank the position he plays and the Royals’ run to last year’s World Series, because by now there is no question that his name is the easiest way to start an argument in Kansas City.

Smith is the Chiefs’ quarterback, and three years into his time here, he understands the baggage that comes with that title. He is the eighth backup from somewhere else to start for the Chiefs in the 37 years since they won a game with a quarterback they drafted. He is, depending on how you do the math, the sixth primary quarterback in the 21 years since the Chiefs won a game in the playoffs.

There are those of us who think Smith is a good quarterback. Not great, mind you, but smart and talented in ways that can be accentuated with the right pieces around him.

And there are those of you who think Smith is a noodle-armed, overly risk-averse anvil with a fittingly dull name — a dud at the most important position in American sports.

Those of us on Team Alex like to talk nuance, and bring up the fact that he was drafted by the NFL’s equivalent of the 2005 Royals, a franchise that gave him six coordinators and a botched shoulder surgery in seven years. To us, last year with the Chiefs, Smith showed only that it’s hard to play quarterback when the offensive line often resembles a grade-school game of red rover.

Those of you on the other side are beyond sick of all of that, wondering what excuses we’ll come up with now that Smith is surrounded by a dynamic set of playmakers, an improved (if still suspect) line, and (finally) the same coaches for a third straight year.

And, well … on that point we have no comeback. This is an important year for Smith, and for those of us who believe he has the goods.

If Smith does not have the best year of his career, something has gone wrong. If Smith does not have the best year of his career, and Jeremy Maclin has not suffered an injury and the offensive line is better than a year ago, then something has gone wrong with Smith.

A huge chunk of the Chiefs’ success depends on that not happening.

A huge chunk of their success depends on Smith proving he is more than a guy good enough to almost win with.

-----

Alex Smith is about to have the best of his 10 seasons in the NFL because, finally, the context is right.

He should’ve never been the No. 1 pick in the 2005 draft. We know that now, and not just because Aaron Rodgers was the second quarterback taken. Smith wasn’t ready. Wasn’t particularly close to ready.

He wasn’t even 21 years old when the 49ers gave him the keys to their disoriented franchise. More reporters covered his first NFL practice than all but his last college game, and the experience spooked him. He admits that now. Says it took years — four, five, maybe more — to get past.

That’s on him. This is where the blame game heats up, so that’s important to say. Smith is not in a position to complain here. He is 31 years old and has been paid well over $60 million during a career that has so far included a 1-2 playoff record. The 49ers should’ve given Smith more support, but he should’ve been better, too.

There have been successes and failures, and he owns the quarterback’s responsibility for both. But he has never been in a position this teed up for success. Not even those last few seasons in San Francisco, when he came within a freak special-teams mistake of the Super Bowl one year and the next season was benched after returning from a concussion despite leading the league in completion percentage.

In Smith’s first five seasons in San Francisco, he needed a competent organization. In his last two seasons there, he needed one that believed in him.

Here, finally, he has both.

This is why some of us believe he is about to have the best season of his career.

-----

Smith’s strengths are mostly subtle and widely misunderstood. He brings an element of certainty in a game defined by chaos. His quick feet, good instincts on when to break the pocket, and knack for avoiding the hardest collisions are particularly helpful as the Chiefs try to sort out the offensive line.

Game manager has become an overused and somewhat ambiguous term in football, but part of what makes evaluating Smith difficult is that there are not a lot of plays on either extreme. For the most part, he does not throw the boneheaded interception. For the most part, he does not create touchdowns from his own awesomeness. He is more Muzak than Metallica.

But the strengths are there, and not just in the sense that — particularly with Jamaal Charles, Travis Kelce, Jeremy Maclin and a potentially great defense — avoiding mistakes is a terrific thing.

There was a play last year in Arizona, where Smith ran away from a sack, creating extra time, and threw on the run into a window that hadn’t yet opened. The play probably should’ve been a 6-yard loss. It was a 29-yard gain. It was a terrific play, brilliantly executed, and symbolic in its subtlety.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The window does not exist when Smith makes this pass. <a href="http://t.co/mAO8R2l9uH">pic.twitter.com/mAO8R2l9uH</a></p>&mdash; KC Star Sports GIFs (@KCStarGifs) <a href="https://twitter.com/KCStarGifs/status/642060304164098048">September 10, 2015</a></blockquote>
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But Smith’s biggest strength is accuracy. At the wonderful Pro Football Focus, they calculate accuracy percentage by taking away drops, spikes, and throw-aways. In their calculations, Smith was at 79.8 percent last season, behind only Drew Brees.

Now, some of that, yes, is a lack of downfield passing. No quarterback threw deep less often than Smith last year. It is an acknowledged point of improvement, both by Smith and Reid.

This is where those of us who believe in Smith are on the hook this year. Because a large part of believing in Smith means believing that his hesitancy to throw deep is at least as much about what he’s been surrounded by.

It’s not just about the offensive line — you need time to throw deep. It’s also about the receivers. Smith has not had receivers capable of getting open down the field, or receivers he fully trusts.

It’s interesting that when Jason Avant signed with the Chiefs late last season, Smith seemed to trust him immediately. Avant is a respected veteran, but he was also cut by the Panthers and turned 32 this year. Still, Smith took chances with Avant that he had not taken before.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">A risky deep ball, because Smith trusts the guy he&#39;s throwing to. <a href="http://t.co/lSiuBaN5at">pic.twitter.com/lSiuBaN5at</a></p>&mdash; KC Star Sports GIFs (@KCStarGifs) <a href="https://twitter.com/KCStarGifs/status/642060650764595200">September 10, 2015</a></blockquote>
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There are reasons to believe that Maclin can have a much bigger impact. Training camp, practices, and preseason games have been full of examples of Smith focusing on Maclin. Smith seems willing to make throws to Maclin that he hasn’t made to anyone in Kansas City.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Here&#39;s a touchdown that didn&#39;t exist last year, because Smith didn&#39;t have a receiver good enough to make this play. <a href="http://t.co/6o8TqyoWxV">pic.twitter.com/6o8TqyoWxV</a></p>&mdash; KC Star Sports GIFs (@KCStarGifs) <a href="https://twitter.com/KCStarGifs/status/642061052268560384">September 10, 2015</a></blockquote>
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This is just practice and practice games, of course, so the consequences of failure are negligible. But common sense lines up with what we’ve seen.

Smith is conservative by nature, and he’s not all of the sudden turning into Brett Favre. But he doesn’t need to. The Chiefs don’t want that. They just need him to be willing to gamble a little more knowing he has better cards and a better understanding of what’s around him than at any point in his career.

Which is why this has to be the year.

-----

One of the problems with the argument about Alex Smith is that, like most arguments in politics and marriage, we all tend to cherry pick points without really listening to the other side.

But one of the tenets of Team Alex is a recognition of the reality that he is the best the Chiefs can do. He is not Aaron Rodgers, but he is not Matt Cassel, either. If the Chiefs had the first pick in 2012, instead of 2013, Smith would be somewhere else and Kansas City would be obsessed with Andrew Luck.

But, like a B student who has to study a little harder on the SAT, teams without that top-tier franchise quarterback have to work a little harder on the rest of the roster. In that way, Smith is in the best position of his career.

Assuming the offensive line is improved, there is more than enough around Smith for him to shake the notion that he is holding back the bigger cause. Those of us on his side of Kansas City’s biggest sports debate are counting on that.

If it doesn’t happen this year, we’re all out of excuses.

Does Alex often make excuses? I don't remember him throwing players under the bus and he's been forthright about his own mistakes.

The headline makes me wonder if an editor got a hold of it. The article really focuses more on people making excuses FOR Alex rather than him making excuses for himself.

Excellent article and spot on. If Smith doesn't perform this year it's time to move on.

I expect him to have a very good year though.

I like that Mellongina called the Chiefs a capable organization. That gives me the warm fuzzies...

I agree. He has a very nice trio of weapons at WR, TE and RB, has extra speed players and this OL should be decent.

If he flops than Murray or a high draft pick should take over

I really like that 1st pass. There is obviously a great deal of trust there. He's just throwing to a spot and trusting the receiver gets there.

"Throwing the receiver open"? That's my interpretation of it, anyway.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong. :)

LMAO

What ****ing games has this guy been watching?

I've seen Alex Smith run out of more clean pockets than Matt Cassel.

It's Week 1. I'll jump on the optimism train for a bit and see what happens. As much as I wish the Chiefs would draft and develop a franchise QB, the fact is they have a very good team built without one right now. If Alex takes a step/leap forward then the next several years could be a lot of fun.

I guess I'm not aware of a botched shoulder surgery. What's that about?

Good article. Mellinger has been putting out some decent pieces lately.

Although, it is pretty obvious he reads the planet ROFL

Not sure, though I found this:

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/nfl...le3450988.html

Tough to say what was "botched," but that definitely seems odd to be out for an entire season due to a shoulder injury.

Mellinger is a pompous douche IRL

Good article. Yes, assuming the oline holds up okay and there are no major injuries to key players, Smith should have his best season. And if he doesn't then the naysayers will most likely be right. I think he is gonna have a great year. Remember, he was playing very well down the stretch in 2013. I anticipate him getting back to that form. :thumb:

I vote anvil

I hope Alex Smith takes a big step forward and has his best season.

I fear he will be the same old Alex Smith - up-and-down. Alternating between teasing the ability to make that leap, and frustrating with his unwillingness to slide in the pocket or consistently challenge the intermediate and deep zones of the defense.

Shit or get off the pot. Nice article.

he seperated his shoulder and had to have surgery. once he recovered he went back in but was playing in pain. nolan publicly called him a pussy and benched him. come to find out the surgen somehow left a wire in there that sawed back through the bone while he was trying to play. another surgery was needed and alex lost some zip on his ball. on a side note...is it me or is this server lag out alot?

Yeah, that is nice.... guess what? Good QB's make that pass at least once a game... not 1 highlight per season.

We scored 14 points in that game...but good on Alex for that pass.

Mellinger is right.

It's shit or get off the pot time for Smith. If this isn't an 11+ win football team this year, then they need to seriously look at the draft for the possibility of an escape plan in 2017 (and really, he could have a good season and it is still a good idea to look at a succession plan for when they need to pay for Poe and Kelce).

They could even consider trading Smith in 2016 if the right deal came along but if they're looking to move him, it stands to reason his season wasn't one that would serve to create much trade value for him. Ultimately the acceleration of his signing bonus onto our cap would hurt, but not be crippling. However, his salary for 2016 is guaranteed so the only way to move on would be by trade, taking us off the hook for the guaranteed salary.

That said, I still think he has a career year.

So 11+ wins and he gets to stay? Sounds kind of unfair don't you think? However I could definitely see them win that many games. Considering what we've seen from the past from this team, they are only getting better and better. Being a 9-7 team last year wth what they had to go through only strengthens my optimism for this year. 11-5 sounds bout right to me. Don't think I have ever seen the Chiefs have a complete team like this

Agree with everything here.

My position on Alex Smith has always been clear - he makes your team exactly as good as it is.

He's not Aaron Rodgers, who makes it better. He's not Matt Cassel, who makes it worse.

If you took the Chiefs and every other team in the league, subtracted the quarterbacks and were asked to rank order them, is there any argument at all that the Chiefs are at least a top 5 team by that metric? I don't think so - the talent on this team is immense.

You're right, I could be being unfair, but my general perception of the NFL 'bell curve' is that every year there 4-5 teams that win 12+ games and another 2-3 that win 11.

So if I'm right and Alex Smith truly is a guy who makes your team exactly as good as it is and I believe that the Chiefs are a top 5 team quarterback excluded, then 11 wins should be a fair expectation.

By season's end it's possible he could have played well and we end up at 10 wins; I'd still deal with that. But anything less has to be seen as an unqualified failure for Alex Smith and a definite sign that he's not a quarterback that can take this team anywhere meaningful.

I'm not throwing stones, I legitimately want to know because I respect your opinion, but where are you at on injuries?

Jamaal Charles, Justin Houston, a myriad of other dudes missing serious time changes the equation significantly. Worst case scenario, Charles goes down, misses 8 games, and the narrative is that Alex didn't have his best weapon. Where does your evaluation of him stand then?

On the other side, is 11+ wins always good enough? It depends on what you define as a good season. Alex haters are going to be ridiculously unreasonable. Alex homers are going to be ridiculously apologetic.

I don't care about winning games if they're done the wrong way. Last 2 years are funny examples. In 2013, we won 9 games despite Alex (easy schedule, defense bailed him out most games) yet went 2-5 in games where Alex played some of the best football in his Chiefs' career but the D laid a big goose egg. In 2014, he was a huge reason for the Chiefs going 7-1 during their hot streak, but was also a huge reason for the Chiefs going 1-5 the other miserable stretch.

My criteria for Alex has always been simple... if you're going to manage games, you better convert third downs and close games. If you open up the offense, you have a lot more leniency on those 2 points.

There's no wrong way to win games. Just win.

If that was the case, Denver would be trotting out Tim Tebow on Sunday, and The Patriots would have let Brady walk in 2008 when they won all those games with Matt Cassel.

If the winning isn't sustainable, then it's the wrong way to win. 2013 was a great example of that. The defense put up an all-world performance and then stopped doing it. Alex Smith then became a different QB.

The question I keep asking is, why does Alex wait or his defense to suck to step up as a QB? If we're treating this as a "put up or shut up" year for Alex, I don't consider it success if we're winning too many games the wrong way. That is, games where we shit the bed on third downs and in a close game, our offense keeps going 3 and out in the 4th quarter and relies on our defense to make stop after stop. Even if we win games that way, that doesn't make me at all confident that Smith is the right QB.

3400 yards, 23 TDs and 11 picks

I'm not speaking for DJ'sLN here, but my opinion would be that the narrative on Alex wouldn't change at all. Sure, the win total would, but not his ability to win or lose more games. Since, as far as I know, there's not a stat like WAR for football, let's say Jamaal is worth 4 wins(the Chiefs will win 4 games with him that they lose with Davis or West as the bell cow). So if we're using 11 wins as our base, let's say with JC out(please no, not again), the Chiefs are a 7 win team. I think the point he is making is that Alex will go out and win you those 7 games. He won't win 10, he won't win 5. He'll keep the needle right in the middle.

I dont really care much about winning pretty, but the offense has to be better.

I'm guessing 4000, 27, 14 for Alex this season.

He basically went for 3500 the past two seasons if you add in his per game average and account for the 2 games he missed. Thats around 30 more yards per game. I think Maclin, Dat, and Wilson will go a long ways in getting him that simply through YAC. I think Alex is a little more aggressive this year and it leads to a little more touchdowns, but a lot more picks.

Counting rushing yards, I see him having a 3800-4000 yard season....7.6ypa...68%comp...29tds (combined rushing and passing)...9ints

10,000/60/0

Suck it, haters! :D

Seriously: 3800/25/8

Mellinger: Alex Smith is out of excuses, and he needs to deliver his best season
 

What makes it botched is Alex was legit hurt. Mike Nolan called him out for not being tough so Alex went back out destroyed his shoulder and missed all of 2008 because mile Nolan is a walking dick wad.

Admittedly I left out the wire in his shoulder. Whoops.

Also, it's quite nice hearing an extraordinary writer bringing up points that I've been harping about since we signed Maclin.

It's all about trust with Alex.

For him to target you, you need to

1) be trusted to know your job/ where to line up
2) be trusted to run routes effective enough to gain separation
3) be trusted enough to be on the same page with him on route adjustments
4) be trusted enough to make the catch consistently and make the play
5) be trusted that you're not going to hang Alex out to dry after he gets you the ball.

Seriously, it's all about trust for the guy.

That's why Albert Wilson, Jason Avant and Deanthony Thomas had no problem getting targets during the last month of the season. Alex trusted them.

I wish the search function worked so I could look for the thread I was going on about trusting his receivers, there was some gold in that thread/those threads...it seems Sam read them and has agreed with them and has done an amazing job expanding on those thoughts and hit it out of the park with this article.

Alex Smith is not the greatest QB to walk the earth that's for sure, but I never heard him make an excuse for himself ever. I will give him that.

This is as far as I needed to read.

Yep.

he played for a franchise that once belittled him, his own coach called him a pussy in front of his peers, messed up his throwing arm, etc and still decided to re-sign with them because he wanted to win. The guy doesn't make excuses.

Exactly what I was thinking: I've read this somewhere before. :hmmm:

This. One of the main reason why I continue to follow his career - I want to see him rewarded for being class.

Good luck all this weekend. I hope you are all here celebrating a Chiefs win on Monday.

I'm thinking around 3,500 yards; I agree with 25/8.

511/332 65% 3800 23-9

http://thefakefootball.com/2015-fant...s-city-chiefs/

Rush yards definitely get overlooked when accounting for QB production. He gave us 3750 total yards in his first season so being north of 4000 is not out of the question.

So he's gay? Or is that The View's hot football take?

And he put up his own money to do hold mini-camps during the lockout in the summer that harbaugh was entering as HC. He's a class act.

In the end, the organization turned his back on him and look at them now ROFL

Should have sucked for Luck. If I was Pioli I would have made that happen.

Still a few excuses around for Alex Smith, but they are disappearing fast.

barring injuries or an Oline that's sucks, Smith needs to be significantly better this year


i'm still not convinced that the Oline is going to be solid, but we'll see

As I've argued before...name your OL ranking for the Chiefs. Doesn't matter what it is (unless it is #1), the Chiefs overall offense will be ranked quite a bit higher than than the O-line ranking. If that indeed turns out to be true, in what universe is QB the problem? And screw all the Charles noise; RBs don't matter very much in today's NFL.

The common view on here is that unless a QB is a first ballot HOFer, he is garbage and should be cut.

Just think, had we gotten Luck in 2012, Pioli would still be our GM most likely.

Chase Daniel waiting in the wings to ascend to his 'QBoTF' role

I agree with Sam on every point, he's done a nice job of summing things up for the people who maybe don't follow things as closely as the average Planeteer.

He's done some nice work lately, must be going back and looking at his old cohort Babbs pieces or something... cant think of a worthy comparison since I haven't followed basketball since forever, but he's like a very solid, if unspectacular point guard... he doesn't create very often, but he's a great distributor.

And yes, he's out of excuses... I said that at the end of last year, long before the 5 star offseason we had.

Would have been nice, but players, coaches and GMs just don't think the way fans do.

You can't spend all offseason preaching one thing and then reverse course for hope in acquiring one player.

It worked for indianapolis

Chiefs tried to suck but we won games with ****ing Palko starting. That's Chiefs football for you.

Every SB winning QB has been supported by an effective running game.

10th year for a good quarterback is always the year they go for their first 4,000 yard season.

So, Peyton faked that injury?

You mean like John Elway? :)

Guess who?

Steve Young

Yes but what is the marginal contribution of HOF runner over a league average runner?

Com'on Boss.

Not saying Alex is the next young, but it's an example of a guy that didnt really get going till he was 31 years old.

I don't believe Sam has had the pleasure of meeting the Alexsexual Transplant Association.

Peyton Manning won his only SB when Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes stepped and produced in the post season.

Aaron Rodgers won his when James Starks produced in the post season.

Marshawn Lynch

LeGarrette Blount

It isn't about HoFers.

It's about post season production, and Jamaal Charles gives the best chance at that production.

I'm very optimistic about the Chiefs season. I haven't been this confident since 2003 and 2004 (misplaced, it turned out). The roster is very solid.

But why are we making contingencies for Smith? The defense lost DJ, DeVito, and Berry last year. Guess what? They were still good. No one is talking about Rogers having a bad season because Jordy Nelson is out for the season. No one ever has to make excuses for winners.

He just needs to step up and do it. Period.

To be fair, Aaron did it once... with 2 multi-Pro Bowlers at WR.. and by putting up very Alex-like numbers... and having a top 5 defense.

Can we use the Steve Young comparison for every QB that's under the age of 30 and hasn't quite arrived yet?

If so, great! I'm expecting awesome things from Brian Hoyer this season! He's the next Steve Young! And it all starts Sunday!

Boss, I owe you a game bro from the Denver game. What are you thinking this year?

To be fair about what?

I am talking about SB QBs being supported by an effective running game.

Please do not compare Rodgers to Smith.

Like, ever.

The numbers speak for themselves for AR's SB year. Otherwise, and out of that context, I wouldn't compare them. One of them was silver-spooned to greatness. The other, held back by incompetent teams around him.

Oh, and GFY not so gently... :thumb:

It's Sandy Cheeks so I'm going to take a wild stab at it... Alex Smith.

I missed the near 4000 yard season that Alex Smith put up.

We've been talking about going to the Steelers game or the Raiders game.