538.com weighs in: Chiefs "simulation" nets 10 wins, but game-by-game odds? 13.
 

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...l-predictions/

They only have us as clear underdogs in Pitt, in Carolina, and in Denver. We're slated as favorites in the other 13 games. We would theoretically be 8-0 at home and 5-3 on the road.

They give us a 2/3's chance to make the playoffs, but a sub-40% chance to win the division. They think we have a 30% chance to get a first round bye, and a 9% chance to win the Super Bowl.

Pretty weird.

They'll have an AFC West preview in a few days. I'll update the OP with it when it's posted.

12-4

Denver has an 11% chance (the highest in the league) of winning the SB? ROFL Yeah....sure.

9-7

Chargers W
at Texans L
Jets W
at Steelers L
at Raiders L
Saints W
at Colts L
Jaguars W
at Panthers L
Buccaneers W
at Broncos L
at Falcons L
Raiders W
Titans W
Broncos W
at Chargers W

11-5

Chargers W
at Texans L
Jets W
at Steelers L
at Raiders L
Saints W
at Colts W
Jaguars W
at Panthers L
Buccaneers W
at Broncos L
at Falcons W
Raiders W
Titans W
Broncos W
at Chargers W

Address the LOLS

Those numbers will change.


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Texans, Colts, and Falcons are the 3 games that will determine how our season goes IMO.

You pick that every year. Those Balls need to drop. This is a very good team.

You know what I find amusing?

The pessimists love to pick out a couple games we "should" win as losses, but God forbid you pick us to win one of our tougher games against Car, Pitt, Indy, @Oak, or @Den.

Anybody that really believes we don't win one of those games this year is a ****ing pessimistic moron.

Indy is gonna end up with a top 5 pick. That's a win.

Pitt can't stop anyone.

**** that shit. We're going 13 and 3

You are a ****ing homer so it plays to both dipshit.

This team is really good. It's not like he's humping the Hermines. Picking only 9 wins.... ROFL

It only plays both ways if I'm saying we are going to win every single game we should. I'm not. I'm just saying we aren't going to lose every tough game either.

If you still feel that being optimistic that the Chiefs will finish better than 9-7 makes you a homer, you must've been sleeping the past three ****ing seasons.

Still can explain the Lolz can you?

Oh shit, O.City is feeling confident. Super Bowl baby!!!!

He's still celebrating Mannings parting gift from the league

You spend alot of time talking about a rigged product

The colts are gonna be shitty, denver has a 7th round rookie qb starting and pitt has no defense.

We're going in dry there.

I see 11 - 5, we win the AFC West, pull the 2nd seed.

Chargers W (we make Rivers cry again)
at Texans W (same team as before, only with a different back up QB)
Jets W (KC reminds Fitzpatrick that he really is just a journeyman QB)
at Steelers L (only because it's a road game)
at Raiders L (see above)
Saints W (who day gonna stop dem Chiefs?)
at Colts L (somehow the Colts have our number)
Jaguars W (Jags are up and coming but no match of KC)
at Panthers L (Newton does his thing)
Buccaneers W (shiver me timbers, Winston is sacked 5 times in this game)
at Broncos L (only because it's in Denver)
at Falcons W (the stench of Pioli lingers on the ATL)
Raiders W (we split the season series)
Titans W (hey I get to watch a game here in Nashville)
Broncos W (we're home, crowd is jacked, we win)
at Chargers W (SD longs for the days of Stan Humphries and Natrone Means)

Talk that shit O PBJ

What where the odds when we went 1-4 to start last season.... Time waster....

Denver defense is still solid fellas.

Hopefully Schwartz can be the difference in giving Smith extra time to find the open receiver.

Anyone picking this Chiefs team to be 9-7 (like Sam Mellinger) is a coward.

Just about everything went wrong in 2014 - the loss of DeVito and Derrick Johnson on defense and Jeff Allen, their best offensive lineman at the time - in GAME ONE.

They lost Berry to cancer, Dwayne Bowe to being fat and out of shape, dealt with an often injured second tight end in Fasano and had zero depth at any position. Alex Smith was out with a lacerated spleen for the 16th game and guess what?

The Chiefs were 9-7.

If the Chiefs go 9-7 in 2016, it's because Tyler Bray, Knile Davis and DeMarcus Robinson are starters for a good portion of the season.

9% to win the whole thing...damn...

thats really not bad

Anyone who is expecting Denver to roll over this year is kidding themselves. It's like people are forgetting that their QB play was atrocious last year too.

Chargers W
at Texans W
Jets L (our 'WTF?' game this year)
at Steelers L
at Raiders W coming off bye
Saints W
at Colts W
Jaguars W
at Panthers L
Buccaneers W
at Broncos L
at Falcons W
Raiders W
Titans W
Broncos W
at Chargers W

12-4

Manning/Osweiler >>>>>>>> Siemien.

You say that from watching all of the games? He looked OK (but not spectacular) when I've watched. They're going to a much more conservative offense that will play to his strengths.

But I'm not also going to sit here and claim that Denver will win 2 games. Their defense is still good enough to keep them afloat. I just think they'll be sitting at 7-9 or 8-8.

You gotta love the logic.

"ANYBODY is better than Peyton/Osweiler"

Yea, ok. :rolleyes:

I think their floor is 6-10 and ceiling is 11-5. That defense is just plain mean.

Holy shit. You gave yourself a lot of wiggle room there.

ROFL

Huh? The point is that they've not going to be a basement dweller team, and they've got a good chance of making the playoffs again.

I have no idea what games you've watched if you think that Siemian is going to be some huge anchor compared to last year.

NOBODY believes the Broncos will be worse than 6-10. At least not anybody worth listening to. What you're predicting is no different from what we are, expect there's no ****ing way they win 11 games.

I disagree. It's easy to say that until you realize that they play the same weak SOS that we do.

But time will tell.

There's a damn good chance that they start out 0-3.

Carolina, Indy, and Cincy with a QB with absolutely no experience.

Give me 12-4 or 14-2, but keep that 13-3 shit away from our house.

13-3 is bad mojo.

He's the world's biggest ****ing homer. Bordering on KCJohnny territory.

But if we do wind up 13-3 and win at least one playoff game we can start calling Andy the Curse Breaker!

13-3

Chargers W
at Texans W
Jets W
at Steelers W
at Raiders L
Saints W
at Colts W
Jaguars W
at Panthers L
Buccaneers W
at Broncos L
at Falcons W
Raiders W
Titans W
Broncos W
at Chargers W

This.

That 13-3 is just bad juju

Yea because I'm predicting that the Chiefs go 19-0, and win the Super Bowl, right?

I'm saying 11-5 and at least an AFCCG (with Houston back), which seems to be pretty fair compared to the rest.

Keep running with that narrative though. It's funny that some of you think being optimistic about this team under this regime makes you a homer. You're completely delusional in your pessimism.

I watched wrasslin back in the day during the Attitude Era. Watch TV shows and movies. Talk about those as well.

Not at all.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Panthers take a step back this season.

I'm thinking 12-4, but of course they'll screw it up and lose to the Jags or Titans or something.

Chargers W
at Texans W
Jets W
at Steelers L
at Raiders L
Saints W
at Colts W
Jaguars W
at Panthers L
Buccaneers W
at Broncos L
at Falcons W
Raiders W
Titans W
Broncos W
at Chargers W

It's definitely difficult to improve upon a 15-1 record

ROFL

Of course they will. Still going to beat the Broncos tomorrow night.

Kinda funny, I suppose, but I'm talking about a biiiiig step back.

This fits my season prediction to a T. I see 13 wins but allowed for losing 3 games that they probably shouldn't lose.

I see us at 10 - 6 winning the AFC West as the third seed.

Chargers W (a limited Charles keeps this closer than it should be)
at Texans L (they always give us problems, and no Houston really hurts us)
Jets W (young QB @ Arrowhead early in the season)
at Steelers W (Alex outshines Big Ben in a shootout, his best game of the season)
at Raiders W (with Charles back at 100%, Chiefs rush for 250+)
Saints L (still no Houston = not enough pass rush, Brees lights it up for 400+ yards & 5 TDs)
at Colts L (Chiefs put up 4 touchdowns, but not enough as defense lets them down in Houston's first game back)
Jaguars W (we win by 3+ scores)
at Panthers L (we lose big. This is the game that RBBC comes back to bite us as they combine for 3+ fumbles)
Buccaneers W (despite allowing an opening drive field goal, the Chiefs only gives up 200 yards of total offense)
at Broncos L (bad clock management and untimely turnover)
at Falcons W (defense finishes with 9+ sacks and 3+ turnovers)
Raiders W (nailbiter, Chiefs win by a field goal)
Titans L (bad clock management and untimely turnovers again)
Broncos W (at Arrowhead, Chiefs win by 2 scores)
at Chargers W (3 point victory in San Diego wins the West)

Yeah, Direckshun beat me to it, but only by 7 or so hours. That's kinda close.

It's not wierd at all. It is just basic probability. Take the first two games: we are favored by 81% and 57%. While we are favored to win both games, the expected number of wins is 1.38, which is significantly less than 2. You do that 16 times and you get a little over 10 wins, even if we are favored in 13 games.

:thumb:

There's a reason you're the statistician and I'm not.

This. I don't believe in any curse. Those 13 win teams that lost in the playoffs were just getting screwed over by the refs and inept game ending QB in 1997 and teams that were not as good as their records indicated the other 2 times. Bono the choke artist as well as the kicker who shall not be named in 1995. The 2003 team had absolutely garbage for defense by season's end. Andy Reid's Chiefs teams are much more rounded, complete teams.

That's no different than you negative Nancy's always seeing the worst possible outcome. You and Clay seem to be very unhappy people.

Oh at least.

Yea, such a homer to think we can go one step further if Houston comes back healthy.

Did you Broncos fans watch football outside of Denver last year? Seriously.

:hmmm:

11-5 and a WC at best.

Only thing that can stop Denver is if Elway woke up Monday morning and decides to trade Siemien for Brian Hoyer or some shit.

Dumbass

So far, we are right where I predicted. Hopefully, they can exceed my expectations going forward. Go Chiefs!