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-   -   Chiefs Steve Spagnuolo: The Man with Four Aces Up His Sleeve (https://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=320880)

pugsnotdrugs19 01-24-2019 08:42 PM

Steve Spagnuolo: The Man with Four Aces Up His Sleeve
 
PREFACE: This SI article is from December of 2016, so it's not brand new. But I do think it is very insightful and worth the read for KC fans.

LINK: https://www.si.com/mmqb/2016/12/27/n...ve-coordinator

ARTICLE:

Spoiler!

chiefzilla1501 01-24-2019 08:46 PM

The 2016 defense may have been overranked. But there's no disputing they were very very good. There are more than enough "holy shit" complaints about McAdoo losing his locker room the year after to fairly question if Spagnuolo would have been successful on defense in 2017 behind a competent head coach.

I'm not giving him a free pass. But I'm going to use this as my reason for optimism.

Reerun_KC 01-24-2019 08:46 PM

Lets hope rehash doesnt bring up 4 jokers...

BleedingRed 01-24-2019 08:47 PM

And 3 top 10 defenses in his entire career

pugsnotdrugs19 01-24-2019 08:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BleedingRed (Post 14070788)
And 3 top 10 defenses in his entire career

Just read the ****ing article.

Indian Chief 01-24-2019 08:54 PM

I'm not in love with the hire from the standpoint that it was a super-safe and predictable Andy move. However, I have to defend Spagnuolo here. There are three times in his career that you look and say, "wow that was bad." His time with the Saints, being HC of the Rams, and the last year in NY.

1.The Saints situation has been well documented. That was bounty-gate and the team was a mess.

2. He is certainly responsible for the Rams disaster, but let's be honest, that team was going in the tank. I also think he was in over his head -- one of the batch of good coordinator, bad head coach.

3. The last year with the Giants is where I really give him a pass. Living in NJ I heard every little detail on a day-by-day basis. That team was a mess and flat out quit on McAdoo. McAdoo was a mess and completely lost that team.

BleedingRed 01-24-2019 08:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19 (Post 14070791)
Just read the ****ing article.

Dude I did,

I watch a shit load of football, the Giants spent 200 Million in one offseason on defense....

petegz28 01-24-2019 09:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BleedingRed (Post 14070811)
Dude I did,

I watch a shit load of football, the Giants spent 200 Million in one offseason on defense....

If they players quit on the head coach then how much $ you spend doesn't really matter.

FloridaMan88 01-24-2019 09:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Chief (Post 14070804)
I'm not in love with the hire from the standpoint that it was a super-safe and predictable Andy move. However, I have to defend Spagnuolo here. There are three times in his career that you look and say, "wow that was bad." His time with the Saints, being HC of the Rams, and the last year in NY.

1.The Saints situation has been well documented. That was bounty-gate and the team was a mess.

2. He is certainly responsible for the Rams disaster, but let's be honest, that team was going in the tank. I also think he was in over his head -- one of the batch of good coordinator, bad head coach.

3. The last year with the Giants is where I really give him a pass. Living in NJ I heard every little detail on a day-by-day basis. That team was a mess and flat out quit on McAdoo. McAdoo was a mess and completely lost that team.

The problem is you just summarized the past 10 years of Spags' career as an NFL DC.

Other than in 2016 when he was the DC of the $200 million free agent spending spree built Giants defense, he hasn't done jack shit in 10 years.

Chiefnj2 01-24-2019 09:27 PM

Contrast with this from the Saints:

But one unnamed player is laying plenty of blame at the feet of defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, who watched his unit surrender 7,042 yards (breaking the 1981 Baltimore Colts' record for season-long ineptitude by 249 yards).

According to the anonymous defender, Spagnuolo's personality was as problematic as his work on the whiteboard.

"He does have that good-guy persona, but he is a control freak and treats people like crap," is how the player described his boss to The (New Orleans) Times-Picayune's Larry Holder. "No patience and zero personality. Has a way of pissing players and our defensive coaches off with how he says and does things. (I) think it's even harder after having (former defensive coordinator) Gregg (Williams), who guys enjoyed."


The unit appears to have a solid pedigree with former Pro Bowlers Roman Harper, Will Smith and Jonathan Vilma and rising talents such as Curtis Lofton (who supports Spagnuolo), Cam Jordan and Malcolm Jenkins.

"It was his first year putting it in, and everything we went through, yeah, I'm a firm believer in the system," Lofton said. "I think it's a complicated system, but at the same time it has an answer for everything an offense does. We will be successful in the future. ... Yes, there is some thinking that goes into it before the play and during the play, but once you've got a grasp to it, I really think this is a great system."

Lofton's disgruntled compatriot clearly disagrees.

"To give up what we gave up can't be all talent. Look at where his units (have) been ranked before. I think one top 10?" said the player, who offered that Spagnuolo should be fired.

"Players have no say in anything," he added. "It was (a) complete opposite from before where it was a simple D that players had lot of control and say. We couldn't suggest (expletive). ... Nothing ever changed. It was his way only.


"Don't even get me started on lack (of) ability to adjust during games. Bad, bad, bad."

Spagnuolo has been on a bad run since famously devising the defensive game plan the 2007 New York Giants cited as instrumental in their upset of the previously unbeaten New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII.

But Spagnuolo hasn't experienced a playoff victory since and joined the Saints in 2012 after presiding over a three-year head-coaching tenure in St. Louis when the Rams went 10-38. After his departure from the Rams, he also was accused of heavy-handedness.

Reerun_KC 01-24-2019 09:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88 (Post 14070846)
The problem is you just summarized the past 10 years of Spags' career as an NFL DC.

Other than in 2016 when he was the DC of the $200 million free agent spending spree built Giants defense, he hasn't done jack shit in 10 years.

Im nick naming him Rehash....

BryanBusby 01-24-2019 09:30 PM

Bob Sutton: "**** I only had 3 aces........oh well *rushes 3 on 3rd down*"

Sassy Squatch 01-24-2019 09:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefnj2 (Post 14070857)
Contrast with this from the Saints:

But one unnamed player is laying plenty of blame at the feet of defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, who watched his unit surrender 7,042 yards (breaking the 1981 Baltimore Colts' record for season-long ineptitude by 249 yards).

According to the anonymous defender, Spagnuolo's personality was as problematic as his work on the whiteboard.

"He does have that good-guy persona, but he is a control freak and treats people like crap," is how the player described his boss to The (New Orleans) Times-Picayune's Larry Holder. "No patience and zero personality. Has a way of pissing players and our defensive coaches off with how he says and does things. (I) think it's even harder after having (former defensive coordinator) Gregg (Williams), who guys enjoyed."


The unit appears to have a solid pedigree with former Pro Bowlers Roman Harper, Will Smith and Jonathan Vilma and rising talents such as Curtis Lofton (who supports Spagnuolo), Cam Jordan and Malcolm Jenkins.

"It was his first year putting it in, and everything we went through, yeah, I'm a firm believer in the system," Lofton said. "I think it's a complicated system, but at the same time it has an answer for everything an offense does. We will be successful in the future. ... Yes, there is some thinking that goes into it before the play and during the play, but once you've got a grasp to it, I really think this is a great system."

Lofton's disgruntled compatriot clearly disagrees.

"To give up what we gave up can't be all talent. Look at where his units (have) been ranked before. I think one top 10?" said the player, who offered that Spagnuolo should be fired.

"Players have no say in anything," he added. "It was (a) complete opposite from before where it was a simple D that players had lot of control and say. We couldn't suggest (expletive). ... Nothing ever changed. It was his way only.


"Don't even get me started on lack (of) ability to adjust during games. Bad, bad, bad."

Spagnuolo has been on a bad run since famously devising the defensive game plan the 2007 New York Giants cited as instrumental in their upset of the previously unbeaten New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII.

But Spagnuolo hasn't experienced a playoff victory since and joined the Saints in 2012 after presiding over a three-year head-coaching tenure in St. Louis when the Rams went 10-38. After his departure from the Rams, he also was accused of heavy-handedness.

Yikes. Some of that is pretty ugly.

'Hamas' Jenkins 01-24-2019 09:35 PM

I always apply this test: How would you feel if the Raiders or Broncos hired Steve Spanuolo as their DC?

pugsnotdrugs19 01-24-2019 09:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins (Post 14070869)
I always apply this test: How would you feel if the Raiders or Broncos hired Steve Spanuolo as their DC?

I wouldn’t be sure because he’s had such a wide variety of results. Same as I feel right now.

BryanBusby 01-24-2019 09:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins (Post 14070869)
I always apply this test: How would you feel if the Raiders or Broncos hired Steve Spanuolo as their DC?

I'd laugh forever if Oakland hired him and would be uncertain if it were the Broncos.

Reerun_KC 01-24-2019 09:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins (Post 14070869)
I always apply this test: How would you feel if the Raiders or Broncos hired Steve Spanuolo as their DC?

I would ROFL as the Chiefs offense would rape...

chiefzilla1501 01-24-2019 09:57 PM

He was installing a new year 1 defense. A lot of players have a hard time adjusting to change as it is. Especially a popular one like Gregg Williams with a very obvious style.

Now imagine doing that with your very popular head coach suspended and the GM too. Your entire OTAs are run by a 3rd-string HC (Aaron Kromer) who coaches for 6 games. You're a DC trying to prove yourself after a failed HC run... halfway through the year, the LBs coach also trying to prove himself in a interim HC role jumps in and knows he's going to be associated with failure if he doesn't fix the defense.

I'd say he gets a pass for that season.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefnj2 (Post 14070857)
Contrast with this from the Saints:

But one unnamed player is laying plenty of blame at the feet of defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, who watched his unit surrender 7,042 yards (breaking the 1981 Baltimore Colts' record for season-long ineptitude by 249 yards).

According to the anonymous defender, Spagnuolo's personality was as problematic as his work on the whiteboard.

"He does have that good-guy persona, but he is a control freak and treats people like crap," is how the player described his boss to The (New Orleans) Times-Picayune's Larry Holder. "No patience and zero personality. Has a way of pissing players and our defensive coaches off with how he says and does things. (I) think it's even harder after having (former defensive coordinator) Gregg (Williams), who guys enjoyed."


The unit appears to have a solid pedigree with former Pro Bowlers Roman Harper, Will Smith and Jonathan Vilma and rising talents such as Curtis Lofton (who supports Spagnuolo), Cam Jordan and Malcolm Jenkins.

"It was his first year putting it in, and everything we went through, yeah, I'm a firm believer in the system," Lofton said. "I think it's a complicated system, but at the same time it has an answer for everything an offense does. We will be successful in the future. ... Yes, there is some thinking that goes into it before the play and during the play, but once you've got a grasp to it, I really think this is a great system."

Lofton's disgruntled compatriot clearly disagrees.

"To give up what we gave up can't be all talent. Look at where his units (have) been ranked before. I think one top 10?" said the player, who offered that Spagnuolo should be fired.

"Players have no say in anything," he added. "It was (a) complete opposite from before where it was a simple D that players had lot of control and say. We couldn't suggest (expletive). ... Nothing ever changed. It was his way only.


"Don't even get me started on lack (of) ability to adjust during games. Bad, bad, bad."

Spagnuolo has been on a bad run since famously devising the defensive game plan the 2007 New York Giants cited as instrumental in their upset of the previously unbeaten New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII.

But Spagnuolo hasn't experienced a playoff victory since and joined the Saints in 2012 after presiding over a three-year head-coaching tenure in St. Louis when the Rams went 10-38. After his departure from the Rams, he also was accused of heavy-handedness.


chiefzilla1501 01-24-2019 09:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88 (Post 14070846)
The problem is you just summarized the past 10 years of Spags' career as an NFL DC.

Other than in 2016 when he was the DC of the $200 million free agent spending spree built Giants defense, he hasn't done jack shit in 10 years.

Indian Chief pretty much summed it up. For now, they're excuses for failure in what might be a bad hire. But those are some really shitty situations so they may very well be legit reasons, not excuses, for failure.

Reerun_KC 01-24-2019 10:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501 (Post 14070900)
Indian Chief pretty much summed it up. For now, they're excuses for failure in what might be a bad hire. But those are some really shitty situations so they may very well be legit reasons, not excuses, for failure.

Well he has on Chiefs Red now, so his past is mute, cause you know Chief Fan.

chiefzilla1501 01-24-2019 10:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reerun_KC (Post 14070907)
Well he has on Chiefs Red now, so his past is mute, cause you know Chief Fan.

There are enough people frustrated by the Bob era that they'll be jumping down his throat if he isn't top 10. So I think he will be held plenty accountable. Which is fair.

Nobody is saying the past doesn't matter. A lot of people, myself included, are lukewarm about this move. But if the past is going to be presented, it needs to be presented correctly with the right context. He was a shitty head coach. As a coordinator, half of his bad years involved really really shitty situations that had nothing to do with him. You can't talk about 2012 and 2017 shortcomings and ignore huge events like bountygate and the mcadoo drama.

BleedingRed 01-24-2019 10:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19 (Post 14070873)
I wouldn’t be sure because he’s had such a wide variety of results. Same as I feel right now.

Has he tho

fan4ever 01-24-2019 10:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501 (Post 14070962)
There are enough people frustrated by the Bob era that they'll be jumping down his throat if he isn't top 10. So I think he will be held plenty accountable. Which is fair.

Held accountable by who? Andy? It will take 3 sub performing years for Andy to fire his Eagle buddy.

chiefzilla1501 01-24-2019 10:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fan4ever (Post 14071009)
Held accountable by who? Andy? It will take 3 sub performing years for Andy to fire his Eagle buddy.

The fans. I'm just responding to the idea that fans have homer glasses on about this guy.

Chargem 01-25-2019 01:44 AM

Well, not that I want a revolving door of DCs but surely it's easier to fire a guy if he is terrible after 1-2 seasons than the Bob situation where by he started out with a couple of pretty strong seasons (if only due to talent) and then went down hill and you're always thinking "maybe he can turn this around".

CoMoChief 01-25-2019 01:51 AM

Should have known Reid is too much of a coward to do what's best for the Chiefs/players, but instead chooses a safe yes man who he's worked with before. A safe but stupid move.

Dr. Yu Weed Tard 01-25-2019 05:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501 (Post 14070962)
There are enough people frustrated by the Bob era that they'll be jumping down his throat if he isn't top 10. So I think he will be held plenty accountable. Which is fair.

Nobody is saying the past doesn't matter. A lot of people, myself included, are lukewarm about this move. But if the past is going to be presented, it needs to be presented correctly with the right context. He was a shitty head coach. As a coordinator, half of his bad years involved really really shitty situations that had nothing to do with him. You can't talk about 2012 and 2017 shortcomings and ignore huge events like bountygate and the mcadoo drama.

NONE OF THIS MATTERS IF WE DON'T UPGRADE THE DEFENSIVE TALENT.

Chris Meck 01-25-2019 07:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Haglund's_Spirit (Post 14071273)
NONE OF THIS MATTERS IF WE DON'T UPGRADE THE DEFENSIVE TALENT.

I know, right? If only there was a draft, and maybe a period where you could sign free agents and maybe cut some of your own dead weight...but I guess we're just ****ed.

HonestChieffan 01-25-2019 07:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19 (Post 14070873)
I wouldn’t be sure because he’s had such a wide variety of results. Same as I feel right now.

Indeed. This sort of logic would lead to hiring people you think may be bad to play against if the Raiders or Denver were to have him....simple but probably not the best metric to narrow the field...

bowener 01-25-2019 08:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BleedingRed (Post 14070788)
And 3 top 10 defenses in his entire career

The Chiefs don't need a top 10 defense. If the offense stays as dangerous, and there is no reason it won't, the Chiefs only need a 15-25 ranked defense to kick the shit out of people.

BleedingRed 01-25-2019 08:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bowener (Post 14071514)
The Chiefs don't need a top 10 defense. If the offense stays as dangerous, and there is no reason it won't, the Chiefs only need a 15-25 ranked defense to kick the shit out of people.

Wanna know how many times he’s ranked above 15-25?

Chris Meck 01-25-2019 09:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BleedingRed (Post 14071522)
Wanna know how many times he’s ranked above 15-25?

why don't you go change your tampon?

BleedingRed 01-25-2019 09:01 AM

PS 6 out of 9 years he was ranked 26-32nd when it comes to points

BleedingRed 01-25-2019 09:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Meck (Post 14071526)
why don't you go change your tampon?

Listen you rose colored glass bitch, just because you want to be willfully ignorant doesn’t mean I have to be.

Chris Meck 01-25-2019 09:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BleedingRed (Post 14071529)
Listen you rose colored glass bitch, just because you want to be willfully ignorant doesn’t mean I have to be.

Seriously. Take a midol. Do you need a ****ing snickers or something?

BleedingRed 01-25-2019 09:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Meck (Post 14071537)
Seriously. Take a midol. Do you need a ****ing snickers or something?

lol that’s all you got, can’t talk football because you don’t know anything.

It’s ok

Chris Meck 01-25-2019 09:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BleedingRed (Post 14071544)
lol that’s all you got, can’t talk football because you don’t know anything.

It’s ok


ROFLROFLROFL

Ok, Nancy.

BleedingRed 01-25-2019 09:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Meck (Post 14071552)
ROFLROFLROFL

Ok, Nancy.

Ok, pussy.

tyton75 01-25-2019 09:12 AM

I think I can honestly say that I don't really care about the defensive ranking overall.. all I care about is getting more crucial 3rd down stops.

Chris Meck 01-25-2019 09:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BleedingRed (Post 14071559)
Ok, pussy.


what a twat.ROFL

pugsnotdrugs19 01-25-2019 09:13 AM

No coach would have gotten much out of a defense where the team had quit on the season (2017 Giants) or a team in turmoil like the Saints after bountygate. If you think otherwise, it’s a waste of time to discuss this at all.

BleedingRed 01-25-2019 09:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Meck (Post 14071563)
what a twat.ROFL

Are you so old and reeruned you can’t find the ignore button?

BleedingRed 01-25-2019 09:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19 (Post 14071570)
No coach would have gotten much out of a defense where the team had quit on the season (2017 Giants) or a team in turmoil like the Saints after bountygate. If you think otherwise, it’s a waste of time to discuss this at all.

So you accounted for 2 years... so 4 out of 7 years he has been dog shit. Does taking those two years out still make you feel better or something?

Chris Meck 01-25-2019 09:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19 (Post 14071570)
No coach would have gotten much out of a defense where the team had quit on the season (2017 Giants) or a team in turmoil like the Saints after bountygate. If you think otherwise, it’s a waste of time to discuss this at all.

A lot of people just flip out because the guy they wanted didn't get hired. Or, they want someone like Kris Richard who wasn't going anywhere unless it was a head coaching job.

AFC contenders weren't going to let us interview their guys most likely; and even if so, Reid wasn't going to hand over half the team to a guy that's never done it before. Not right now, not with Patrick still on a rookie deal. If a guy flames the **** out in this situation, we waste this window entirely.

Yeah, he took a 'safe' option, one he knew, one he was comfortable with. Of course he ****ing did, you numbnuts. You don't take a huge risk right now when all you need is a respectable defense. You take a guy you know knows the ropes.

In stable situations, he's built solid to good defenses. In chaotic situations, he's had issues. This is a STABLE organization. He'll be fine.

I'd bet we're at least the #20 defense next year. That'll probably put us in the Super Bowl. And Rex Ryan will still be spouting bullshit on football talk shows.

pugsnotdrugs19 01-25-2019 09:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BleedingRed (Post 14071576)
So you accounted for 2 years... so 4 out of 7 years he has been dog shit. Does taking those two years out still make you feel better or something?

He’s the DC of this football team. Nothing more, nothing less. His stats as a DC without the 2012 and 2017 debacles...

Yards: 7th, 5th, 32nd, 10th

Points: 17th, 5th, 30th, 2nd

One stinker season in there where the Giants had almost zero defensive talent.

Chris Meck 01-25-2019 09:27 AM

It is what it is, and the haters (lot of the same guys that could NOT BELIEVE WE DIDN"T GET GENO SMITH) don't want to hear anything about situations or circumstances.

I'd much rather talk about what we do next, draft, FA, retaining or letting our guys go. I mean no matter how much people cry about it, it is what it is. So what next?

crazycoffey 01-25-2019 09:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BleedingRed (Post 14071527)
PS 6 out of 9 years he was ranked 26-32nd when it comes to points

Quote:

Originally Posted by tyton75 (Post 14071562)
I think I can honestly say that I don't really care about the defensive ranking overall.. all I care about is getting more crucial 3rd down stops.

We’re going to rank low in yds and points against again. Nature of a score fast offense and TOP the D is on the field. I don’t know if anything would really change that, except better running the Onfor TOP and a running game. Which isn’t Andy’s strong point.

I’m just cautiously optimistic the bend don’t break mentality is gone, and the D will take a few more chances. We had the Pats at 3rd and long 2 or 3 times on that OT drive alone, and not once did the D get tight, and even try something other than Hope Brady made a mistake.

Guess we’ll see how it goes.

InChiefsHeaven 01-25-2019 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by crazycoffey (Post 14071685)
We’re going to rank low in yds and points against again. Nature of a score fast offense and TOP the D is on the field. I don’t know if anything would really change that, except better running the Onfor TOP and a running game. Which isn’t Andy’s strong point.

I’m just cautiously optimistic the bend don’t break mentality is gone, and the D will take a few more chances. We had the Pats at 3rd and long 2 or 3 times on that OT drive alone, and not once did the D get tight, and even try something other than Hope Brady made a mistake.

Guess we’ll see how it goes.

Which, ironically he did...and Dee Ford made a bigger one it turns out...

KChiefs1 11-30-2019 03:13 PM

When does he play them?

Hammock Parties 11-30-2019 03:32 PM

Dude has definitely been a huge upgrade.

12th ranked defense by DVOA, we are light years ahead of where we were.

KChiefs1 11-30-2019 04:38 PM

Steve Spagnuolo: The Man with Four Aces Up His Sleeve
 
Assessing the Chiefs Analytics
By
Seth Keysor

Quote:

It was supposed to be so simple for the Kansas City Chiefs as they prepared for the 2019 season: Get a defense that isn’t terrible, and the Super Bowl awaits.

That’s perhaps a bit of hyperbole, but it’s at least close to the truth. Led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid, the 2018 Chiefs scored more than 35 points per game and fielded one of the most productive offenses in history. No team held them below 26 points or truly stopped them over the entire season.

The Chiefs came agonizingly close to a Super Bowl berth — literally a few feet, as edge rusher Dee Ford infamously lined up offsides on what would have been a game-winning play in the AFC Championship — on the back of their historic offense, but down the stretch the defense proved to be a fatal flaw. Former defensive coordinator Bob Sutton’s crew couldn’t make stops, and the offense was consistently forced to score repeatedly for the Chiefs to win games.

The Chiefs’ D finished 26th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA last season (a defensive efficiency stat that takes context of every play and strength of opponent into account, explained in more detail here). Being so weak on that side of the ball was the primary reason for each of the Chiefs’ losses, as even when the team would score in bunches or held a lead late in the fourth quarter, it wasn’t enough.

The Chiefs lost center Mitch Morse and receiver Chris Conley to free agency in the offseason, but otherwise kept their offense intact. With another year to gel and Mahomes still developing, the assumption was that the offense would be able to stay nearly as dominant and perhaps somehow even take a step forward. Which meant that all the Chiefs needed was an average defense to be a clear Super Bowl favorite.

With 12 weeks complete in the 2019 season, something interesting has happened and gone largely unnoticed: One side of the ball has accomplished its goal — and it’s not the offense. By any reasonable measure, the defense has significantly outperformed its 2018 performance.

Yards and points per play/drive are obvious terms, but there are two other in-depth stats used here that are very important.

DVOA: As discussed above, this is a measure of efficiency that looks at every play and takes into account down, distance, field position, score and quality of opponent.

EPA Per Play: Expected points added per play, which is a reflection of how much more likely a team is to give up a score (if the number is negative) or score (if the number is positive) after a play. Obviously, the higher the number the better, but most defenses are somewhere in the negative.

All of these stats can be combined to help us get a much closer look at the defense than points per game or total yards allowed. While statistics can be misleading for individual players, for team performance in-depth stats such as the ones above do not lie: The defense has jumped from cellar-dweller to “average” in 2019.

One of the most important jumps has been in the pass defense, which has improved to the point of being very good at 6th in the league. Because pass defense has such a large effect on EPA, the Chiefs’ EPA per play allowed has made a sizable jump. It also has had a significant effect on their points allowed on a per-drive basis.

The Chiefs’ run defense hasn’t taken a large step forward, but it has at least managed to stop being historically bad the way it was last year. While such a marginal change seems insignificant, it’s enough to help swing EPA and yards/points per drive.

The Chiefs conducted a massive overhaul on their scheme this offseason, and the results have been generally positive. New defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has been more creative and aggressive with the pass rush.

In addition to a pass rush that has been perhaps more consistent than last season (despite losing exceptional players along the edge), the Chiefs have seen a large jump forward in their secondary. Free agent Tyrann Mathieu and draftee Juan Thornhill have been a massive upgrade at the safety position, and the much-maligned cornerback group has generally played well enough to force quarterbacks and receivers to make good plays if they want to move the ball through the air. This is in significant contrast with last year, when blown coverages were routine.

Had a stranger approached me this preseason and asked, “Seth, if at the bye week the Chiefs will have the 14th-ranked defense by DVOA and 6th against the pass, what do you think their record will be?” I would have had a very simple answer (outside of, “Um, who are you?”): They’d be at least 9-2 with an outside shot at being undefeated. The hope was to have a respectable defense, and the Chiefs now seem to have that.

So why are the Chiefs 7-4 and in the midst of what many would call a disappointing season? The answer lies on the other side of the ball. Looking at the same statistics for the offense as we did for the defense, a troubling pattern emerges.

The Chiefs’ offense has been very good in 2019, but it has been significantly less dangerous than it was in 2018. EPA per play and points per drive are particularly noticeable. The Chiefs rushing DVOA has taken a considerable drop, which may be a point in favor of those who believe in the run game’s value. The offense averaged .092 expected points added per rush in 2018. In 2019, the rush game has actually had a negative value at minus-.023 expected points per play. That’s worth re-reading: The run offense has hurt the Chiefs’ chances at scoring this year rather than helping. Assuming 25 carries per game, that’s a swing of 2.875 points per game.

Despite the problems with the run game, the Chiefs’ fall from historically good as a passing team to merely “very good” carries the most impact. The Chiefs averaged .457 expected points added per play passing the ball in 2018. In 2019, that number has fallen to .325 expected points per play. Assuming 40 passing attempts, that amounts to 5.94 points per game.

So what has changed? Why are the Chiefs not what they were last season, or even all that close? There are a few factors at play, and the most frustrating of them has been injuries. The most important players on Kansas City’s offense are Mahomes and receiver Tyreek Hill. Both of them have missed significant chunks of time this season, and Mahomes has played a majority of the season on a bad ankle. Between the two of them, they have missed nine games and have been together on the field for the equivalent of less than two full games.

Mahomes’ injuries have affected the offense more than any other factor. Being hobbled robbed Mahomes of his usual ability to move inside and outside the pocket to avoid rushers.

Mahomes also struggled with consistent accuracy while his ankle bothered him, as he was unable to put weight on the foot when throwing, especially on the run.

However, the impact of Hill’s absence to the offense cannot be overstated. Hill is not just a player who forces defenses to alter their coverage strategy throughout the game with his speed. He’s also exceptional at gaining yards after the catch and is one of the best contested-ball receivers in the NFL.

This touchdown came on 3rd-and-21. Hill’s ability to take bad situations and turn them into wins for the offense has been missed nearly as much as Mahomes’ ability to move around with ease.

The combination of Mahomes’ and Hill’s injuries has been bad enough, but the Chiefs have also dealt with left tackle Eric Fisher being out for an extended period. While he appeared less than 100 percent healthy and struggled at times against the Chargers in his return, Fisher’s absence meant an increased number of plays in which Mahomes (or Matt Moore, when Mahomes was injured) faced pressure almost immediately.

Pressure that happens quickly makes the play almost certain to fail, and it happened at least several more times a game than normal with Fisher on the sideline. While that number may not seem significant, when the number of dropbacks in a game is limited to 40 to 50 times, it makes a considerable impact when an extra 2 or 3 are doomed.

The Chiefs’ offensive line has also taken a marked step backward along the interior this season with Morse now in Buffalo. Replacement Austin Reiter hasn’t played as well as he did last season, and neither has left guard Andrew Wylie. Their steps back, combined with Fisher’s absence, as made the pass protection more unstable. This has resulted in Mahomes looking more jittery in the pocket as he appears to not trust the protection.

A final issue in the Chiefs’ large step backward is their inability to run the ball. While run offense is much less efficient than pass offense and carries significantly less importance, it does have situational value in salting away leads or converting short-yardage situations. Additionally, the ability to create yardage in a bad situation is one of the most valuable in the league. Last season, the Chiefs had one of the better players in the league at doing so in running back Kareem Hunt.

Had Hunt been replaced with a healthy Damien Williams (as he was last season) or a healthy LeSean McCoy, the drop-off may not be as noticeable. However, the Chiefs’ running backs have struggled with injuries, and that has affected the offensive output overall.

It’s worth noting that the Chiefs’ offense has a turnover rate of .080 per drive, as opposed to .110 per drive last season. So the decreased production on offense has been despite being luckier in one aspect of the game that is often random. Conversely, the defense has benefited from turnovers less in 2019 (.136 per drive to .155 per drive last season). So the defense has been less lucky than the offense in 2019, but has still improved significantly.

Perhaps the greatest culprit in the Chiefs’ decrease in offensive efficiency this season has been red-zone offense. In 2018, the Chiefs averaged 5.69 points per trip to the red zone, first in the NFL. That number has tumbled to 4.71 points per red-zone visit, 17th in the league. The Chiefs have not executed at a high level in the red zone due to the issues discussed above, and Reid has made the problem worse at times with play-calling that is overly reliant on single options.

So what does all this data mean? The broadest point to be taken from this is that the Chiefs defense has in fact been what was hoped for heading into this season, and is good enough for the Kansas City to win the Super Bowl. The problem is that the offense has underachieved compared to expectations for a variety of reasons. That’s not to say the offense isn’t still superior to the defense, but it hasn’t been the force it was anticipated to be.

The good news for the Chiefs is that the injury issues that have plagued the offense could be resolved moving forward, and their own failures in the red zone are quite fixable. And if/when the offense regains something resembling its 2018 form, the defense it was waiting for last season has already arrived.

ToxSocks 11-30-2019 04:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties (Post 14624692)
Dude has definitely been a huge upgrade.

12th ranked defense by DVOA, we are light years ahead of where we were.

Elephant in the room: The offense has taken a step back.

OnTheWarpath15 11-30-2019 05:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Detoxing (Post 14624756)
Elephant in the room: The offense has taken a step back.

No doubt.

A huge part of that is 10 and 15 being injured for a good chunk of the season, but beyond that, I feel like the situational playcalling has gotten worse, if that's ****ing possible.

KChiefs1 11-30-2019 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath15 (Post 14624764)
No doubt.



A huge part of that is 10 and 15 being injured for a good chunk of the season, but beyond that, I feel like the situational playcalling has gotten worse, if that's ****ing possible.


Andy’s one option play calls must stop

rabblerouser 11-30-2019 09:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins (Post 14070869)
I always apply this test: How would you feel if the Raiders or Broncos hired Steve Spanuolo as their DC?

****, can we trade coaches after the deadline?

rabblerouser 11-30-2019 09:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KChiefs1 (Post 14624767)
Andy’s one option play calls must stop

Especially when the one option is to Blake ****ing Bell.

jerryaldini 11-30-2019 09:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KChiefs1 (Post 14624748)
Assessing the Chiefs Analytics
By
Seth Keysor

This should be required reading for a certain class of Chiefs fans. You know the ones that believe the only reasons they aren't undefeated are a porous defense and time of possession. And Andy not caring about defense and Spags being a moron. The ones that overreact on gameday any time the opponent executes a drive longer than forty yards.

You really should post this as a separate thread and assign it to them. Thanks for posting it.

Hammock Parties 11-30-2019 09:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rabblerouser (Post 14625063)
Especially when the one option is to Blake ****ing Bell.

give it a rest

we've moved on, enjoy tomorrow's beatdown

Rasputin 11-30-2019 11:59 PM

We don't have the equivalent of HOFer Michael Strahan on our defense to make a Steve Spagnuolo defense Super Bowl esk.


Our hope is in Mahomes and an offense that overcomes our special needs defense.

KChiefs1 12-01-2019 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rabblerouser (Post 14625063)
Especially when the one option is to Blake ****ing Bell.


No shit!

KChiefs1 12-01-2019 10:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jerryaldini (Post 14625070)
You really should post this as a separate thread and assign it to them. Thanks for posting it.


You’re welcome.

Go ahead. Be my guest.

RINGLEADER 12-01-2019 11:34 AM

Chiefs have gotten healthy and figured out the right group of guys on the D-Line. Primed for the playoff run.

KChiefs1 12-02-2019 11:25 AM

Double Edelman & put a CB on James White. Brady is helpless.

KChiefs1 12-03-2019 10:57 AM

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...663f6d9e1d.jpg

chiefforlife 12-03-2019 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KChiefs1 (Post 14631788)

Whats the trend at the top? I cant read that (yes, I made it bigger and still cant read it.)

Pasta Little Brioni 12-03-2019 11:50 AM

They have all played absolutely dog shit offenses in comparison

InChiefsHeaven 12-03-2019 11:57 AM

paper tigers...

Pasta Little Brioni 12-03-2019 12:00 PM

This is a top 10 defense when you factor in SOS...you guys realize they have been pretty solid right? The difference is the offense hasn't been HOF level this year

dj56dt58 12-03-2019 12:16 PM

they are top 10 if teams abandon the run. Let's not all act like the run D is fixed. Hint: It isn't

Chargem 12-03-2019 12:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KChiefs1 (Post 14631788)

Doesn't DVOA factor in strength of opponent, so schedule is actually irrelevant?

Pasta Little Brioni 12-03-2019 12:39 PM

Chiefs are scary. Pat fans are pissing their pants thinking of having to go through KC and Baltimore

Hammock Parties 12-03-2019 12:51 PM

that hasnt been updated

Pasta Little Brioni 12-03-2019 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties (Post 14632009)
that hasnt been updated

Think we move up at all?Scurry Chiefs!

Talisman 12-03-2019 02:43 PM

1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pasta Giant Meatball (Post 14632019)
Think we move up at all?Scurry Chiefs!

We actually went down a spot to 15. Attachment 119331

KChiefs1 12-07-2019 05:00 PM

This is the game you were hired for Spags.

Let’s go!!!!!

Hog's Gone Fishin 12-07-2019 05:06 PM

I have a good feeling we're going to destroy them.

JakeF 12-07-2019 05:33 PM

I've see him adjust without taking 2 weeks to do it. That puts him a step over Sutton so far. He had the balls to move Chris Jones and i'm sure that wasn't easy. The defense has improved throughout the season which is a good sign.

The Patriots will be another test. We have to be ready to handle Edelmann and White.

Chris Meck 12-07-2019 05:37 PM

This game, and the rematch coming in January are exactly why Spags was hired.

He derailed the undefeated season with a 9-7 wildcard team that had been spotty defensively the first part of the season but got hot down the stretch.

let's hope history is repeating itself.

VAGOMO 4 LIFE! 12-07-2019 05:42 PM

Sorenson will have a big game against White. He’s made a difference in this defense

Chris Meck 12-07-2019 05:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MAHOMO 4 LIFE! (Post 14638878)
Sorenson will have a big game against White. He’s made a difference in this defense


WHA


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