The PPE and decisions...
 

So, 4 players from KC earned the Proven Performance Escalator for the final year of their deals. They are:

CB Kendall Fuller
WR Tyreek Hill
FS Eric Murray
WR Demarcus Robinson

As you know, that means that these players will have their 2019 salaries increased to the Original Round tender value for RFAs. That is estimated at $2,035,000. This salary is NOT guaranteed.

So, the question now becomes, are Eric Murray and Demarcus Robinson worth keeping at this rate?

Not only this, but FS Jordan Lucas and ILB Terrance Smith are both RFAs who will be in line for the same amount unless they reach a deal for a contract or are allowed to walk.

My personal opinion is that Lucas should be retained on a 1-year vet-minimum deal for $720,000 + $90,000 bonus money and not be tendered. Smith should walk.

I am in the air about Murray and Robinson. I don't think either bring enough value to the team to actually be worth that escalator, but then can the Chiefs afford to cut either?

Murray is really the only FS on the team right now unless Berry is retained AND is healthy in 2019 AND moves permanently to FS. With Conley and DAT both being FAs, Robinson is the only receiver next in line that really has experience.

What do you think KC does?

I don't think you can get rid of Robinson him and mahomes seem to have some kind of connection. Murray don't let the door hit you on the way out

I was wondering why Crow was making a thread about Personal Protective Equipment.

It really goddamn sucks Murray is the only guy back there. I’d dump him in a heartbeat but I imagine he’ll stay.

I think Robinson has shown enough to stay on at $2M.

Smith can go. Lucas needs to stay on a cheap deal. I don’t hate $2M for Lucas. But yeah. If he’ll accept a vet min deal then do it.

I’d cut Murray.

If it’s Murray or Lucas at the same price tag, I think I’ll take Lucas for sure.

I anticipate Murray gets released and would not be shocked if Robinson is cut too. If Andy really likes Kemp, Dieter and/or Pringle’s potential, we will know soon. I expect an investment at receiver through the draft as well. Watkins will be out in 2020 if Hill gets a big extension.

Gotta cut Murray at that figure. I like the idea of having him around for one more shot at seeing if the time put into him is going to pay off but I'm not interested in paying him $2 million for the privilege.

He'd get half that on the open market; cut him loose and see if he's interested in coming back. Maybe you extend him at 2 years, $2.6 million total (1.2 and 1.4). He's fine to have around when he's inexpensive but he's pricing himself out at $2 million/season.

Robinson's probably someone I'd approach similarly but I understand if the Chiefs just choose to move on as well. He just doesn't seem reliable within the flow of the offense.

He isn’t a guy that you can count on to get open by himself but damn is he good at getting to where Mahomes wants to throw the football. The off script plays that those two make together almost makes up for his shortcomings as a true WR.

I don’t want him to start but I think he’s a solid #4.

Sure; I like him as depth.

But can you pay $2 million to a 4th WR when you have as many big contracts as this team's gonna have to carry?

I think I’m okay with paying Robinson as he’s actually done something of value with Mahomes. I think losing both Conley and Robinson would be a little worrisome in terms of depth and unproven ability.

I think we can make other moves that would help us financially. Murray, Ragland, X Williams, Sorenson. Those guys should all go IMO.

I do think some sort of receiver, be it TE or WR, will be one of our first 3 picks.

Here's the thing about Ragland - his replacement will probably cost about what he does, even if it's as a draft pick. He's cheap next year, man; just $1.25 million. Minimum cap hit's gonna be $500k and guys on draft pick deals even through the third round make more than that. You probably figure on a $700K cap hit at least if we invest as little as a 2nd day pick on an ILB.

Is there really any point there? I think I'd just as soon keep him around for the marginal cost savings we'd get after replacing him.

Williams is a good call, though. Williams, Murray and Sorensen yield about $7 million in freed cap. In a deep DL draft, he should be pretty easy to replace (and we may prefer a different kind of DT given Nnadi's emergence and the 4-3 switch). As much as I liked that signing, he just never seemed to do what we needed him to do. Justin Hamilton looked to make a bigger impact than Williams simply by doing his job.

These moves alone would pay for half of Ford’s tag. And they aren’t that hard to make either IMO. Williams is the only one I might keep.

I could see Veach and the FO not spending too much in FA this year because they want to have flexibility when Mahomes gets paid. Maybe they set it up where they have very few long, expensive contracts on the books from 2020 onward.

Not saying it will be the case for certain, but the major coaching investments on defense make me wonder if they aren’t planning to keep things cheaper on that side of the ball in regards to personnel.

They really don’t need to spend that much. They’ve got two 2nd rd DE’s to utilize + an entire defensive draft to mix in.

I think they need to get cheap talent at important positions. I would be fine if we took these positions with our first 100 picks: pass rusher, ILB, corner and receiver (TE or WR).

Safety or ILB is the one spot I’d spend some money next month. If we can get a top end ILB or Safety, it won’t break the bank.

I think Murray and Sorenson are the obvious cuts, but then you have to go free safety with one of the first 3 picks.

The cap situation is the main reason why I think the tag and trade of Ford is the preferred move. You free up the $16m and also get younger by adding another 2nd round draft pick.

I don't think the Chiefs pull the trigger on it though, I think maybe a couple of cuts, a defense heavy draft and a full season of Houston, Berry and Ford on the tag with limited FA impact is probably on the cards.

I'd do some dumpster diving at safety, personally. I get it - we were garbage there and could sure use better reinforcements, but I still think that's a position that has guys who can play if you'll just sift through the chaff better.

You don't need to hit on 6 Jordan Lucas types; just be willing to move away from 1 Ron Parker type. We've had outstanding success with guys like Demps, Abdullah and Branch. Kurt Coleman left here and had a very nice career. It just seems like among the easier positions to go find low-cost, solid return type options if you're willing to do the work.

Sutton just stuck the guy he knew out there and buried the guy who was playing better. It wasn't that we didn't have a dude who could do the job, we simply wouldn't allow him to do it. So change that attitude and see what we can manage.

I think that's a better idea (along with relying on development from Watts, Lucas and a likely draft pick) than throwing $6 million or so at a second tier S option and spending $11-$12 million on a first tier FA will have us right back in cap hell soon enough.

Prepare for Earl Thomas

Many roads lead to Rome, my friend.

That's simply not the one I'd choose...

Well, taking Veach at his word, he said he wanted to get younger, faster, and more aggressive.

Thomas doesn't fit that; Landon Collins would.

Corners are so expensive that even a mediocre corner like Nelson is going to get like $12 million a year, so I definitely wouldn't go after a CB in FA. Maybe via trade if you can get a guy that's locked in a for at least a couple of seasons.

Which leaves safety as a position that you could get proven excellent play at a reasonable salary.

But we'll see. If we were to draft, a like Nassir Adderley, I'd feel okay rolling with Watts and Lucas.

Agreed.

Learn from the Berry saga. Too much mileage on Thomas for the price point.

Go younger and prioritize in the draft. Good crop this year. I would not be shocked if the Chiefs attempt to trade for Landon Collins.

I'd love that; but honestly, I sort of expect that they won't make any big splash moves, maybe some June 1st cut guys and second/third tier players to hold spots, draft defense heavy and roll.

And I'm not certain that's not the right call. But you better hit on those picks.

I fully expect to have Houston, Ford, and Berry all back. They'll sign some cheap guys and go into the draft having done relatively nothing in free agency.

Where do you play Houston?

Berry, I know-he'll play the bench on a day-to-day basis.

My gut feeling is Ford and Speaks are the ends and Houston is the SAM, with Houston also dropping in to the end positions as well. I'm not saying that's the best thing to do, but it's what they might do.

That sort of locks in the front 7, lets you draft secondary aiming for an immediate impact and a developmental SAM and DE.

I can't remember which podcast or article I read it in, but someone was talking about how in prior years the Chiefs had been drafting for home runs, but now they need high floor guys who can contribute quickly even at the cost of a high ceiling.

I'm not sure I can think of anyone who was a home run swing in recent years other than Mahomes, but I sort of agree with the high floor point this year.

that's an awful lot of money for a SAM. Houston can do it, but that's an awful lot of money to tie up in that position. I mean, Houston might play balls out and get like 6 sacks.

$ per production doesn't make much sense.

Again, I'm not saying it's the best move, or even a good move, I just think it's likely to happen.

Houston would play RDE, more of a fit than Ford.

So you pay Ford $16 or $17 million to play on 3rd and long?


That's what I'm saying, the money just doesn't make any sense.

If they can't trade him that's the issue since he's a bad fit for the 4-3 scheme.

Oh I'm sure they could trade him if you mean Ford.

If you mean Houston, I don't know; I don't know if anyone is going to want to pay him his cap number especially when they know we'll probably cut him and they can renogotiate unemcumbered.

I think he's a really good fit at Leo.

Ford was not a stud against the run this year, but he was solid; firmly average to my eyes. Especially on runs away from him; his pursuit speed is so good that running to the opposite side doesn't work well against him at all. So you have to run weakside to attack him and that just takes a blocker out of the equation. Traditionally offenses tend to have the LT focus on pass-blocking with their RTs being more run-blocking specialists, so the LTs (unless they're elite) tend to excel a little less against the run, also helping Ford out a bit. The biggest concern that then creates is whether Hitchens can effectively man the middle.

Because he'll have to if you have Ford and DoD at the Leo and Will respectively. Not a lot of mass over there and so power running will lead to them getting swallowed up a bit. You'll need Hitchens and your SS charging in hard in the hopes that DoD and Ford can occupy blockers well enough to create lanes for the other guys to knife into.

The 4-3 under may actually be perfect for Ford, to be honest. My biggest worry is that he hasn't shown the ability to rush off the right side of the formation nearly as well for some strange reason. If that's a bugaboo, then yeah - we need to move him. But it's just more of a perception and/or sample size issue, I think he'll do well over there.

His size /frame issue is directly affects his capability to play the position. The guy is injury prone and the wear and tear taking on LT's and LG's schemed to run at him will make him a liability. Getting constantly pushed on will **** with his back which has been problem since college.

Have to do what the Patriots are doing with Flowers. Just let Ford go

I keep hearing cut Sorensen. And he may end up getting cut. But it won't be early in free agency. We're too thin at safety to cut him until we know that there is better available to replace him. That won't be known until training camp rolls around. And maybe that will happen. If(big if, I know)Berry somehow comes back to form. Lucas, Watts, and a draft pick/ FA safety all step up then it can happen. But too much is in the air to just cut him now. I don't think that he is really overpaid that much anyway. His base is $3.6 million. His cap hit is $4.6 million and his dead cap is $2 million.

So the Chiefs could potentially see Conley AND Robinson walk?

One of those guys will be a Chief next season I'd assume. I would hope they refrain from using a draft pick on a WR.

Yep. He's a due for another injury at any moment.

Robinson won't walk, he's not a free agent. He earned the PPE, increasing his 2019 base salary to 2m. My question was whether the Chiefs should retain him at that given his lack of real production.

Well, you're going to have to pay either Robinson or Conley. If you project that Robinson can match Conley's production, you sign Robinson. If you don't, you sign Conley.

Conley will cost more I think. But you have to do one or the other, this offense is too complicated to try to plug someone else in and expect them to have the whole thing down by game 1.

personally, I think you roll with Robinson.

Ford was on the cusp of being labeled a broke dick after the 2017 season.

Welcome to BipolarPlanet.

Yep, he can't cover and can't tackle. Weak ass bitch.

Robinson all day, every day. Conley can't catch and has a fumble problem.

Yep.

If you're gonna pay him $2 million, try to get him extended.

3 years with a $3 million signing bonus and base salaries of $500K, $1 million and $3 million? Guarantee the first 2 years for injury?

I'd imagine he'd probably turn that down but it seems worth exploring.

Tag him and trade him.

And then sign Flowers. :)

I don't know which I find more annoying, people constantly saying running backs have "a little Kareem Hunt in them" or people saying "we have to be like the Patriots / we have to do what Bill would do"