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-   -   Chiefs Bengals gained 60% Win Probability from penalties against Chiefs (https://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=341683)

JakeF 01-04-2022 01:34 PM
Bengals gained 60% Win Probability from penalties against Chiefs
 
The 1st half of the Super Bowl last year clearly helped Tampa Bay. The refs were going to make sure that they kept the Tom Brady story alive.

The Cincy game was another game the refs decided to get involved.


The #Bengals gained over 60% Win Probability from penalties in their Week 17 win over the #Chiefs

It was the 3rd largest WP gained from penalties in any #NFL game this year

(Chart doesn't include non-calls that could add to the Refs influence. There were many calls not made against the Bengals)

https://i.ibb.co/kmBywnZ/FIRyj0j-XMAQOz-MA.jpg

https://ibb.co/MBShtTd

OnTheWarpath15 01-04-2022 01:36 PM
Again, this Twitter account was created in November of 2021, has under 500 followers and we have no idea how they calculate this "data".

We lost, get over it. Shit happens.

We better win the SB this year or this place is going to be unbearable with the rigged nonsense.

comochiefsfan 01-04-2022 01:36 PM
This is just completely unacceptable.

No other way to put it.

Officials deciding games has to be eliminated if the NFL wants to be taken seriously as a legitimate sports league.

DaFace 01-04-2022 01:36 PM
It sucks, but it is what it is. Sometimes they go your way. Sometimes they go wildly in the other direction. (And we have plenty of discussion on the "rigged" angle.)

I don't get much out of fretting about it. Just gotta take care of business the old fashioned way.

JakeF 01-04-2022 01:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaFace (Post 16052112)
It sucks, but it is what it is. Sometimes they go your way. Sometimes they go wildly in the other direction. (And we have plenty of discussion on the "rigged" angle.)

I don't get much out of fretting about it. Just gotta take care of business the old fashioned way.
The Chiefs sure to seem to get their fair share of it "going in the other direction"

The Super Bowl against Tampa Bay went crazy against the Chiefs. Beyond annoying.

smithandrew051 01-04-2022 01:40 PM
I’m not sure if I feel better or worse

JakeF 01-04-2022 01:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath15 (Post 16052109)
Again, this Twitter account was created in November of 2021, has under 500 followers and we have no idea how they calculate this "data".

We lost, get over it. Shit happens.

We better win the SB this year or this place is going to be unbearable with the rigged nonsense.
Sorry if this has already been posted/discussed

I haven't been around lately.

DaFace 01-04-2022 01:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JakeF (Post 16052122)
The Chiefs sure to seem to get their fair share of it "going in the other direction"

The Super Bowl against Tampa Bay went crazy against the Chiefs. Beyond annoying.
You remember the ones that go against us. Rival fans would point out games where the calls went for us. They tend to balance out over time, but there's no doubt they suck in individual games.

Pasta Little Brioni 01-04-2022 01:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath15 (Post 16052109)
Again, this Twitter account was created in November of 2021, has under 500 followers and we have no idea how they calculate this "data".

We lost, get over it. Shit happens.

We better win the SB this year or this place is going to be unbearable with the rigged nonsense.
Eh. It's not nonsense to correctly state that games are steered a certain way. We've certainly benefited at times too. Cincy doesn't win if the game was called correctly....period

JakeF 01-04-2022 01:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaFace (Post 16052131)
You remember the ones that go against us. Rival fans would point out games where the calls went for us. They tend to balance out over time, but there's no doubt they suck in individual games.
That's certainly true.

CPlanet always posted the contrarian view though

just like now

Pasta Little Brioni 01-04-2022 01:45 PM
If you don't think games can be steered....compare how we were officiated against Buffalo in the AFCC and then the superbowl. There is no excuse for the level of disparity in officiating and how a game is called.

Bugeater 01-04-2022 01:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaFace (Post 16052131)
You remember the ones that go against us. Rival fans would point out games where the calls went for us. They tend to balance out over time, but there's no doubt they suck in individual games.
I'm trying to think of a playoff game that the Chiefs won on a call as egregious as "forward progress" vs the Titans, and I'm coming up blank.

OnTheWarpath15 01-04-2022 01:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JakeF (Post 16052126)
Sorry if this has already been posted/discussed

I haven't been around lately.
It was just posted, and in a 11 page thread accusing the NFL of fixing the KC/CIN game.

Not your fault, but the discussion has more than run its course.

RaidersOftheCellar 01-04-2022 01:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by comochiefsfan (Post 16052111)
This is just completely unacceptable.

No other way to put it.

Officials deciding games has to be eliminated if the NFL wants to be taken seriously as a legitimate sports league.
Face it...nothing “needs” to happen. You’ll still watch. I’ll still watch. And definitely Joe America will watch. Unless it literally turns into WWE.

I do think there are cases of ref manipulation and I think this was one of them.

OnTheWarpath15 01-04-2022 01:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JakeF (Post 16052102)
(Chart doesn't include non-calls that could add to the Refs influence. There were many calls not made against the Bengals)
Which means the data doesn't include the non-calls on KC either. So this "data" isn't worth shit.

comochiefsfan 01-04-2022 02:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RaidersOftheCellar (Post 16052156)
Face it...nothing “needs” to happen. You’ll still watch. I’ll still watch. And definitely Joe America will watch. Unless it literally turns into WWE.

I do think there are cases of ref manipulation and I think this was one of them.
The only thing that makes me think that it may just be ref incompetence is the fact that if games were rigged and it came out, the ensuing firestorm and multitude of class action lawsuits against the league would bring the whole operation down.

That's an awful lot to risk, especially with gambling involved. I love pro football so I really hope it's just poor officiating. Who knows though. It sucks that it's even something you have to think about.

JakeF 01-04-2022 02:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath15 (Post 16052160)
Which means the data doesn't include the non-calls on KC either. So this "data" isn't worth shit.
That's pretty presumptive.

Just because it isn't all-encompassing, doesn't mean it isn't worth anything. The refs clearly influenced the outcome of the Cincy/Chiefs game.

Maybe they helped the Chiefs in other games, but they did hurt the Chiefs against the Bengals.

Sassy Squatch 01-04-2022 02:08 PM
Two fourth down penalties were legit.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">haven&#39;t seen anyone post these. i&#39;m trying my hardest to not see anything here. <a href="https://t.co/sJAMbHsdfb">pic.twitter.com/sJAMbHsdfb</a></p>&mdash; John Sheeran (@John__Sheeran) <a href="https://twitter.com/John__Sheeran/status/1478450796182265867?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 4, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Simply Red 01-04-2022 02:09 PM
I will say this - I didn't watch the game but have watched snippets on YT. This Chase dude pushes off on every snap - I mean blatently, much like DeAndre Hopkins has his whole career.

BryanBusby 01-04-2022 02:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Simply Red (Post 16052185)
I will say this - I didn't watch the game but have watched snippets on YT. This Chase dude pushes off on every snap - I mean blatently, much like DeAndre Hopkins has his whole career.
Tony Gonzalez made a career out of it. Some dudes are just really good at it.

RaidersOftheCellar 01-04-2022 02:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Superturtle (Post 16052182)
Two fourth down penalties were legit.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">haven&#39;t seen anyone post these. i&#39;m trying my hardest to not see anything here. <a href="https://t.co/sJAMbHsdfb">pic.twitter.com/sJAMbHsdfb</a></p>&mdash; John Sheeran (@John__Sheeran) <a href="https://twitter.com/John__Sheeran/status/1478450796182265867?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 4, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Admittedly, there was a little something there on the last play, but that amount of contact shouldn't decide a game.

Simply Red 01-04-2022 02:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BryanBusby (Post 16052192)
Tony Gonzalez made a career out of it. Some dudes are just really good at it.
No excuse - he should be put to death Bryan!

DaFace 01-04-2022 02:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bugeater (Post 16052151)
I'm trying to think of a playoff game that the Chiefs won on a call as egregious as "forward progress" vs the Titans, and I'm coming up blank.
I can't come up with anything that blatantly wrong. A lot of other teams' fans would say that our DBs (especially Breeland) basically got away with holding constantly during the Super Bowl run, as a partial example, though.

To be fair, that's how I wish the entire game was called (I get really tired of WRs getting away with everything and DBs getting called for ticky tack stuff), but you can definitely make an argument that the refs just got tired of calling it and let us get away with it.

BryanBusby 01-04-2022 02:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Simply Red (Post 16052224)
No excuse - he should be put to death Bryan!
RIP

wachashi 01-04-2022 02:42 PM
Kelce has been mugged every game this year within the 5-yard area without a call. I'm not sold on that call against Ward, especially in that situation, when Kelce can't buy a hold within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. Kelce needs to fall down to get a call, apparently. But I've seen that not be called as well.

On the Sneed penalty in the endzone, sure. That is technically a foul. It didn't impact the play whatsoever as he continued on his route uninterrupted, but sure. It's ticky-tack in that situation given the consequences of the call.

And if you want to argue both of these were fine, the other late penalties (false starts, P.I., unnecessary roughness) aren't really debatable. Those were just bad, bad calls.

Titty Meat 01-04-2022 02:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath15 (Post 16052109)
Again, this Twitter account was created in November of 2021, has under 500 followers and we have no idea how they calculate this "data".

We lost, get over it. Shit happens.

We better win the SB this year or this place is going to be unbearable with the rigged nonsense.
Lol bro a good amount of people on here think certain diseases are a hoax. You can't fix stupid.

ToxSocks 01-04-2022 02:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaFace (Post 16052131)
You remember the ones that go against us. Rival fans would point out games where the calls went for us. They tend to balance out over time, but there's no doubt they suck in individual games.
I was reading the Bengals forum for the 1st half.

They could not stop bitching about the refs and missed holding calls and this and that.

****ing hilarious how that works, eh?

ToxSocks 01-04-2022 02:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaFace (Post 16052231)
I can't come up with anything that blatantly wrong. A lot of other teams' fans would say that our DBs (especially Breeland) basically got away with holding constantly during the Super Bowl run, as a partial example, though.
Bills fans would not shut the **** up about all the non-DPI calls in the playoffs last year.

When a team loses every fan base bitches about the refs. With merit or not.

Red Dawg 01-04-2022 02:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath15 (Post 16052160)
Which means the data doesn't include the non-calls on KC either. So this "data" isn't worth shit.
Uh, what non calls. The Chiefs don't commit penalties.

ToxSocks 01-04-2022 02:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RaidersOftheCellar (Post 16052197)
Admittedly, there was a little something there on the last play, but that amount of contact shouldn't decide a game.
Regardless, it's a penalty.

The ****ing Bengal had to re-adjust his helmet, ffs.

Our scheme demands that the DB's play tight, press coverage. Naturally we're more inclined to get DPI's rather than a teams that play primarily zone.

Jewish Rabbi 01-04-2022 02:56 PM
Maybe don’t let a single guy get 270 receiving yards and the penalties don’t really matter

penguinz 01-04-2022 03:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pasta Little Brother (Post 16052136)
Eh. It's not nonsense to correctly state that games are steered a certain way. We've certainly benefited at times too. Cincy doesn't win if the game was called correctly....period
Cincy doesn't win if KC actually plays the second half. They clearly thought the game was over at half time.

Mecca 01-04-2022 03:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Simply Red (Post 16052185)
I will say this - I didn't watch the game but have watched snippets on YT. This Chase dude pushes off on every snap - I mean blatently, much like DeAndre Hopkins has his whole career.
That's the game now, a few years ago they said if a receiver extends his arm at the top of a route that's OPI, today all receivers do it and never get called for it.

ThaVirus 01-04-2022 03:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JakeF (Post 16052122)
The Chiefs sure to seem to get their fair share of it "going in the other direction"

The Super Bowl against Tampa Bay went crazy against the Chiefs. Beyond annoying.
Keep your ear to the streets and you'll find a lot of (dipshit) fans claim we won our last Super Bowl because of the refs. They specifically mention our DBs and OL never being called for holding.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Superturtle (Post 16052182)
Two fourth down penalties were legit.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">haven&#39;t seen anyone post these. i&#39;m trying my hardest to not see anything here. <a href="https://t.co/sJAMbHsdfb">pic.twitter.com/sJAMbHsdfb</a></p>&mdash; John Sheeran (@John__Sheeran) <a href="https://twitter.com/John__Sheeran/status/1478450796182265867?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 4, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
They're legit. At some point you've just gotta let these ****ing guys go.

ToxSocks 01-04-2022 03:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mecca (Post 16052324)
That's the game now, a few years ago they said if a receiver extends his arm at the top of a route that's OPI
That lasted for like, all of one season.

KChiefs1 01-04-2022 03:48 PM
I hate referees.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

BlackOp 01-04-2022 04:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bugeater (Post 16052151)
I'm trying to think of a playoff game that the Chiefs won on a call as egregious as "forward progress" vs the Titans, and I'm coming up blank.
I'm trying to come up with an example where the Chiefs have ever WON a game in the final 4 minutes based on controversial calls...

Conversely...we have the infamous Raiders game as time expired, The Chargers OPI game which the NFL used as a teaching moment on the last play. This Bengals game...The Chargers 4th and 9 DPI and no call on the Hail Mary muggings.....not the final 4 minutes but last season Raider loss where 13-17 points were lost, the Texans game where they called DPI... Mahomes thinks he has a free play, chucks it up for an INT then they pick up the flag....Chiefs were routing Houston on a national stage. The Titans Triplett playoff game...The Patriot AFCCG. The Patriot game where no penalties were called on NE.

crayzkirk 01-04-2022 04:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlackOp (Post 16052414)
I'm trying to come up with an example where the Chiefs have ever WON a game in the final 4 minutes based on controversial calls...

Conversely...we have the infamous Raiders game as time expired, The Chargers OPI game which the NFL used as a teaching moment on the last play. This Bengals game...The Chargers 4th and 9 DPI and no call on the Hail Mary muggings.....not the final 4 minutes but last season Raider loss where 13-17 points were lost, the Texans game where they called DPI... Mahomes thinks he has a free play, chucks it up for an INT then they pick up the flag....Chiefs were routing Houston on a national stage. The Titans Triplett playoff game...The Patriot AFCCG. The Patriot game where no penalties where called on NE.
You forgot the playoff game vs Denver where Tony Gonzalez was declared out on a TD play. I'm not even going to bring up the Vaseline game...

OnTheWarpath15 01-04-2022 04:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JakeF (Post 16052174)
That's pretty presumptive.

Just because it isn't all-encompassing, doesn't mean it isn't worth anything. The refs clearly influenced the outcome of the Cincy/Chiefs game.

Maybe they helped the Chiefs in other games, but they did hurt the Chiefs against the Bengals.
Bad non-calls have an impact on the game as well, correct?

To only focus on the so-called bad calls (especially when several of them were the right call) has an impact on the data.

T-post Tom 01-04-2022 04:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by penguinz (Post 16052304)
Cincy doesn't win if Spags makes coverage adjustments in the second half. He clearly took an hour or so nap at half time.
FYP :D

loochy 01-04-2022 04:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlackOp (Post 16052414)
I'm trying to come up with an example where the Chiefs have ever WON a game in the final 4 minutes based on controversial calls...
The Dwayne Rudd game? That's the best I can think of...

Fish 01-04-2022 05:20 PM
It wasn't all against the Chiefs, according to this..

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The biggest change in WP% from a penalty in this game can AGAINST the Bengals (a holding call on Sample).<br><br>Here is the WPA of every penalty in the game. The top 5 were<br><br>CIN off holding<br>KC encroachment<br>CIN false start<br>CIN DPI<br>KC off holding <a href="https://t.co/uo91NOOL2b">pic.twitter.com/uo91NOOL2b</a></p>&mdash; Shaun Newkirk (@Shauncore) <a href="https://twitter.com/Shauncore/status/1478446557372600325?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 4, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Bugeater 01-04-2022 05:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by loochy (Post 16052480)
The Dwayne Rudd game? That's the best I can think of...
What was controversial about that? It was just flat out stupidity on his part.

Spott 01-04-2022 05:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bugeater (Post 16052529)
What was controversial about that? It was just flat out stupidity on his part.
Yeah, he through his helmet about 10 seconds before the play was over so it was pretty obvious.

Rain Man 01-04-2022 05:45 PM
I just ran the numbers myself and came up with 100 percent.

Imon Yourside 01-04-2022 05:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bugeater (Post 16052151)
I'm trying to think of a playoff game that the Chiefs won on a call as egregious as "forward progress" vs the Titans, and I'm coming up blank.
Yup, when do we get the bogus PI/def holding penalties to help us out or have we ever?

Bugeater 01-04-2022 05:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by crayzkirk (Post 16052451)
You forgot the playoff game vs Denver where Tony Gonzalez was declared out on a TD play. I'm not even going to bring up the Vaseline game...
You just brought it up in the previous sentence. LMAO
Every one of those Criscoed up mother****ers should have been ejected from the game, instead the refs just have the trainers wipe them down with towels...what a goddamn joke.

mlyonsd 01-04-2022 05:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThaVirus (Post 16052356)
Keep your ear to the streets and you'll find a lot of (dipshit) fans claim we won our last Super Bowl because of the refs. They specifically mention our DBs and OL never being called for holding.



They're legit. At some point you've just gotta let these ****ing guys go.
Yes unfortunately those are legit.

This team started slow but has morphed into the real deal. The only ones that can beat them are themselves with mistakes.

HC_Chief 01-04-2022 06:16 PM
Bottom line the refs absolutely sucked ass in the game. Chiefs fans rightfully feel cheated.

Was the reason for the replacement turds ever posted/discussed? Why in the **** did that happen? I don't EVER want to see that crew again. they are Jeff Triplet level garbage. Clete Blakemen level useless. Absolute garbage who should be bagging groceries, not refereeing an NFL game w/ major playoff implications on the line.

ThyKingdomCome15 01-04-2022 06:39 PM
I hope we play them in the Playoffs. They'll go down in Arrowhead.

Red Dawg 01-04-2022 06:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThyKingdomCome15 (Post 16052608)
I hope we play them in the Playoffs. They'll go down in Arrowhead.
**** yeah they would.


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