Geno Smith: A Tale in Accuracy
 

Geno Smith: A Tale in Accuracy
By JayhawksNChiefs on Jan 10, 4:04p 422

http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2013/1...le-in-accuracy

http://cdn2.sbnation.com/uploads/cho...dard_709.0.jpgJustin K. Aller

I’m not going to sit here and say that I can predict the future, because I can’t. But I’m pretty sure what the talk on AP will be about for roughly the next three months. There will be an endless discussion (which will end in 3 months) on what the Chiefs are going to do with the number 1 overall pick in the 2013 NFL draft. While perusing through the limitless comments on AP, one voice prevails through the masses. That voice says, "Draft Geno Smith."

The numbers are impressive. In his career, Mr. Smith threw for 11,662 yards, tallied up 98 touchdowns to only 21 interceptions, and completed 67% of the passes that left his hand. But, many believe those impressive stats are a result of the system he played in. Short screen passes and two explosive receivers that warrant draft talk of their own undoubtedly could inflate any QBs success.

After going through the AP scouting process (YouTube), many can form their own opinion of what they like and don’t like. Depending on the observer, things like arm strength, footwork, poise, accuracy, release, and pocket awareness can all be discerned from prospect to prospect. Opinions are formed and debates ensue on exactly what each prospect can offer.

It was my attempt, in this post, to stray from this type of analysis. I wanted something more objective. You can show 10 different people tape of Geno throwing the ball and you will get 10 different opinions. Some may be similar, but all will vary in one degree or another.

Specifically, I wanted to tackle the debate on Geno’s accuracy. As stated earlier in the post, Geno has a very impressive career completion percentage, one that he was able to increase every year as a starter. Also stated earlier, this percentage is said to be due, in large part, to the short and "easy" passes that he was asked to make.

To explore this idea, I observed 8 games from Geno’s 2012 campaign. Those games were Texas, Texas Tech, Maryland, Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Iowa State, and Kansas. I used the YouTube videos of Geno Smith vs. insert opponent here in my research. The goal of this research was relatively simple. One comment in particular sparked the idea when a user stated that, "90% of his passes were screen passes." Well AP, were they?

I present the following chart:

http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_as...60c_medium.jpg
via i1257.photobucket.com

As I watched the games, I charted where each completion and incompletion were in regard to the line of scrimmage. It didn’t matter where the receiver ended up, all that mattered is where he caught it or attempted to catch it. After completing 8 games and 300 throws, I felt I had an adequate and representative sample size.

The double lines running down the middle of the chart can pretty much be thought of as the hash marks on a football field. With the exception, for example, that sometimes the ball can be located on the right hash pre-snap and a pass will be completed with the receiver going over the middle. The receiver might catch it outside of the hash marks, but for all intents and purposes it was a pass over the middle. I thought this better represented the types of throws that he was either missing or hitting.
The “NLOS” (Near Line of Scrimmage) is any pass that is generally within 3 yards of the LOS (i.e. screens, swing passes, and maybe a few shallow drag routes). The “4 to 9” section refers to passes that were completed/attempted within 4 to 9 yards of the line of scrimmage (usually outs, ins, and slants). The farther up the chart you go, the farther the passes were from the LOS. From there, I think most get the idea.

To give an example on how to read the chart, the bottom left section describes that Geno completed 41 of 46 passes (89.1%) that were directed to his left and were near the line of scrimmage. The far right column gives totals for each “level.”
Interesting Notes:

• Feel free to take all of the screens away from Geno’s game. He completed 131 out of 213 passes that were 4+ yards past the LOS for a completion percentage of 61.5%.
• 28% of his pass attempts were NLOS, 33% were from the 4-9 range, and 24% were from 10-20 yards past the LOS.
• 36% of his pass completions were NLOS (not quite 90%), 32% were from the 4-9 range, and 23% were from 10-20 yards past the LOS.
• 42% of his passes were directed to the left side of the field.
• Geno completed 18 out of 43 passes (42%) that were 21+ yards past the LOS.
• Geno is deadly accurate over the middle, check out that middle column. He had 6 of 9 passes that were 31+ yards down field completed, impressive. Geno’s completion percentages in the left, middle, and right were 70%, 72%, and 66% respectively.
• Cause for concern? Completing 10/21 for a 48% completion percentage on passes that were 10 – 20 yards downfield and on the right side of the field.
• Reason for optimism? Completing 19/28 for a 68% completion percentage on passes that were 10 – 20 yards downfield and on the left side of the field.

These last two notes were of particular importance to myself when doing this evaluation. NFL quarterbacks are separated by what they can do 10 to 20 yards downfield and outside the numbers. I’ll give you a math problem. How far does a ball travel from a quarterback that drops back 5 yards from the LOS, throws it halfway across a football field that is 53 yards wide, and the ball travels 15 yards past the LOS? My buddy, Pythagoras, told me that 15 yard completion is actually about a 33 yard pass. Is he right?

The overall results of the research seem promising. Initially, I defined 15 parts of the field. I had 5 levels of the defense separated by 3 sections. Through my evaluation, Geno was able to effectively attack each of these 15 parts. Not all equally, but he made the defense account for the whole field. Do the screens inflate his completion percentage? Yes, but those passes are hardly a given… cough*Matt Cassel to Eric Weddle*cough. The percentage of those he completes is beyond impressive by itself (88%). And those passes can travel around 20 yards in the air, at times. The only way those plays work are to get the ball there very quickly and very accurately, which Geno does nearly robotically.

I was a Geno Smith fan before I put this together, and this did nothing but confirm my thoughts on him. I have nothing to compare these numbers to, so I’m thinking about doing a similar evaluation on a couple of the other quarterback prospects. In the end, I hope people find this interesting and can find a way to use this information in their own evaluations.

This joker only used 'highlight' videos/frankie

Great work Laz, and very interesting reading! It would be neat to see the same type of analysis, with Wilson, Glennon, and a few others.

Good stuff, thanks for posting.

most impressive from that, imo, is his accuracy in the 10-20 range

and he throws almost as many in that range as as any other

Q

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showp...postcount=8996

Somebody email this to Dorsey and Reid.

Would like to see that compared to other guys that had NFL success, but it does pwn people that say he only can dink and dunk.

Thanks for posting Laz.

It is an interesting article, but the data seems kind of wonky. According to the article, Smith completed 205 out of 297 passes in those games for a 69% completion percentage. On the ESPN website, however, he completed 216 out of 307 passes for a 70.3% completion percentage. I wonder where the discrepancy arises from and how where the missing passing attempts/completions would map out according to the article.

I would also really like to see how this compares to other top notch QBs not only in the draft, but in the NFL as well.

You know the scouts have mapped out all his completions for every game, and this may be why the brain trust in the FO aren't sold on him being a franchise QB. That said, where Geno is extremely accurate seems to be ideally suited for a WCO that Reid likes to play.

If anything, his accuracy would be increased if the stats matched those on the ESPN website. I'm also not sure that people in FOs around the league are so down on him - the vast majority of the time that we hear about Geno being a weak QB class-topper is from the media. The kinds of things we've heard from people like Dorsey are things you'd hear any GM with the number one pick say in any other year. "There is no clear #1 pick at this time." "No, we haven't necessarily committed to using that pick on a QB." There are more than three months until the draft, and even if they are down on the guy, they won't publicly say so yet.

Many thanks.

Holy shit. Seriously people think he only dinks & dunks? That's just ****ing crazy. Just watch his games, don't need stats to back em up. He can throw the ball deep with accuracy, he can make all the throws in the NFL level.

He passes the eyeball test.

Yeah, some morons thinks he gets all his yards off of YAC.

Out of all the Geno footage that I've watched I rearely see him drop 5 yrads behind the LOS and then throw it on a line 20 yards past the LOS. I also feel like he has a hair to much arch on some of the 10-15 yard outs he throws. Don't get me wrong I still like Geno but this is what I see. I also see him throw a really pretty deep ball to and of course he's really accurate within 10 yards of the LOS as the chart showed.

That would be an ass load of research, but interesting to see.

Even IF Geno got the majority of his stats via YAC (which is a really inaccurate arguement),... isn't the QB's job to get the ball to his playmakers and avoid turning the ball over? Seems to me he is highly accurate at getting the ball to his receivers.... in turn his receivers JOB is to catch the ball and get YAC.

Did Jerry Rice not inflate Steve Young's numbers? Lots of quick slants there went for tons of YAC.

YAC is an important stat in the NFL, especially in the Reid offense. You cant have all 7 step drops and 40 yards passes. Hitting a guy stride creates a lot of the YAC.

yes, but it also leaves the heavy lifting to the receiver and scheme leaving people to wonder how good the QB really is. Eventually it will lead to defenses to crowd the LOS scrimmage and potentially hurt the running game.

Scheme can help, elusive WR's can help but a QB generally has to stretch the defense vertically to have a consistent offense.

If you pay attention to WV offense, they dink and dunk the ball until this happens, aNd then you start seeing Geno throw the deep balls.

Tom Brady and the patriots do the same shit.

Crowding the Los against geno gets teams beat.

It's not rocket science. Defenses choked up on the Chiefs withe Cassel and Quinn behind center because they couldn't throw the ball with any accuracy beyond 5 yards (and even then it was a question mark). If you don't have to defend downfield it makes it a lot easier to bottle up the rushing game and defend the short routes. It makes Charles' rushing numbers that much more impressive.

You bring Geno (or any competent QB) into this offense and you're going to see success the second you loosen up defenses and make them respect the throws that these numbers show Geno can make.

Just my $.02.

Charles in this new offense could be even more ridiculous. Or grossly under used. But the prospects are exciting.

Laz you are 'THE MAN' !!! Excellent find !!:clap:

You know that this is a repost of a post in the original Geno Smith thread.

I know right, don't you wanna just bitch slap those idiots.

Damn, CP is getting behind these days. Too many poop threads clouding our minds I guess.

Oldy but goody~

I guess its good it got its own thread becuase it seems a bunch of people hadn't seen it yet.

GENO TRAIN KEEP ON A-ROLLIN

This absolutely deserves it's own thread.

http://www.totalprosports.com/wp-con...geno-smith.jpg

I'm in the Geno camp for now. I have a couple of problems with conclusions drawn in the article, but it's well done. I think he's missing on a point, though.
NFL accuracy isn't just about completing the pass, but also about where he puts the ball on the receiver. I'd like to see a breakdown of that, and see it compared with other QBs. The "dreaded" (yeah, I know... Doesn't make sense as an argument against) YAC bodes well for this, though.

This would be an awesome but time-consuming idea. I like it.

Thats exactly where the 'OMG THEY HAD X YAC' argument comes in. People like to use that as an argument AGAINST Geno. (LOL!) Yes his guys had lots of YAC (don't all good QB's do that?) If your guys have good YAC that shows right there you are putting the ball where they can make a play after the catch.

I wouldn't mind Tavon coming to KC too and bringing that sweet YAC with him as well.

It might say that, but not definitely. Bubble and tunnel screens don't necessarily tell that. Passes to seams of zones don't necessarily tell that.
I think it's good evidence, but not necessarily proof of that type of accuracy.

The thing about YAC when it came to Geno was that he did have one of, if not the most electric YAC WR in the nation this year and during his career. Tavon Austin was always there. WV used plenty of slip screens and underneath routes to get Austin open in space. What OC wouldn't want to just get the ball into the hands of Austin?

As good as Austin and Bailey were, Geno also did his part, and his OL was pretty poor this year. One thing I'm interested in seeing is what Geno can do with a big 6'2 or 6'3 WR in the NFL. He's never had a a big guy to throw to so he's had to be a little more accurate with his ball placement.

Its anecdotal evidence certainly. I dont think there is a good way to tie YAC and ball placement together scientifically, just because of the variables involved in catching and running. From ball position/height/rotation/angle/air speed/defender position/receiver speed/hand size/ on and on and on.

This is why Geno should be drafted. I think people make off base comparisons to this guy and that guy... but really what sets Geno apart is his accuracy. You put him in a system that plays to his strengths and do it well, he is remarkably accurate.

Exactly. WCO is all about short/mid routes with some over the top stuff to mix it up. Geno is perfect for us.. its DESTINY

I think that's exactly what NFL scouts will spend hours looking at. On a fade, is he putting the ball high outside? One a short slant, is the ball low in front? Where on "the clock" is the ball and how consistent is he at putting it in the right place.
His decision-making seems great. His arm seems average to a hair above average. Leadership/smarts and that type of accuracy are going to be, IMO, what separates him.

I think his arm is pretty big. You can tell on his deep balls that he consistently puts the ball in the right position. When you have less arm not only does the ball take longer to get there, guys have to push it down the field so it gets under or overthrown. (see Cassell) I'm not sure how much of the film and gifs you have looked at, but his ball placement is as good as any college QB and leaps and bounds above the rest of the top QBs in this class.

Still, this evidence is anecdotal. But, when you are talking about something that is an extremely complex art form, open to interpretation, that is really the best you have to work with.

I'll trust that you've watched far more of him than I have. The little I've seen does have me question his big arm. Not saying he's Pennington-weak, I just felt it wasn't a huge arm. But I won't die on that hill, and defer to folks who have spent more time studying him than me.

I appreciate the effort of the OP, but he does not tell me which passes were defensed effectively and whether it was or was not a result of poor placement by the QB. To me, those are very important pieces to the eval and that is what makes Geno attractive to any pass offense, is his consistency in getting the ball right where it needs to be for his WR's.

I've watched enough on Geno to see he is going to need to adjust his reads a bit in the NFL because defenders are much faster, more creative in coverage and will jump routes on some passes he'd normally get away with in college. But this is true of any QB -- college is one thing, the NFL is something else.

He does have some issues he will need to improve on right away, and some of them are his footwork. It's been said, he does look down his guys sometimes too, he will need to become better at "hat str8, eyes moving". Not a big deal.

Now the one thing he needs to get better at is pocket awareness -- he tends to lose track of pressure at times. This one is big. He doesn't have the natural footwork to ascape easily and that can be dealt with using your scheme/play calling during certain situations where you know the defense is going to pin their ears back and go at him. But he's a tall guy, has that high release and I think a good coach can help him handle himself better as a QB under pressure.

THIS
He throws a better deep ball than a lot of NFL qbs let alone this class.

ya, coaching will be important. Every QB coming out will have certain things that needs work. I'm sure even Andrew Luck got coached up a bit. I wouldn't expect an immediate playoff berth, but that's what everyone is going to expect since Luck, RG3 and Dalton have their rookie seasons. They see that and will think that every rookie QB has to make the playoffs or they suck.

http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_as...513/genoo8.gif

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His pocket awareness is as good as any college QB.

Where he needs work is improving his pre-snap outside blitz reads.

Smith's arm strength is undersold.

He has a tendency to throw off his back foot, or to not follow through with his front foot stepping into a throw.

When his mechanics are sound, he drives his hips through the ball and throws lasers.

Good coaching will get him to be more consistent with proper mechanics.

Andy Reid and Geno Smith are a match made in heaven.

I think that's probably my issue with him. The clips I've seen, on longer or harder passes, he looks sloppy, and also like he's throwing his whole body into the throw, where other QBs with "huge" arms don't seem to have to torque as much on those throws.

But, admittedly, what the hell do I know about it?

Go to youtube and look for Geno Smith vs. Baylor 2012. The man has at least 4 passes of 25+ yards. That video will show you how little effort those long passes require from him. I would embed but I'm on mobile.

I don't see anything wrong with using his body to get more power into the throws. An arm thrower is what will get you in trouble.

As long as Geno is using his proper technique he's extremely accurate and he generates plenty of power into his throws. Arm strength is anything BUT an issue with him.

His wide stance in the pocket is a negative IMO. Such as seen in the avatar pic.

The only issues with him at the next level will be the mental part. But that can be said for any rookie.

mental stage, as you said, is the toughest part evaluate. But I'm at ease with him because of how many people attest to him being a student of football and his love for learning the game. Him saying he felt the game wasn't him against the defense, but him against the defensive coordinator, really illuminates his mental approach to the game. I think next year, if we draft him, will have it's shares of ups and downs, he might not even blossom until late next year, but hell be worth the ceiling Andy Reid can get him to achieve.

ya, it's good most of the time. just saying what I noticed when Geno wasn't playing well. he was hit some during the k state game.

Colt McCoy had better stats !

tackled by his OL

...oops, wrong thread..

This is worth bringing back to the top, after this nonsense Nassib lover who just claimed Geno has accuracy issues. SMH

This.

Tavon IMO is the Russel Wilson of WRs in this class. Incredible talent. But will drop due to size.

If you watched WV this year, it was clear that Tavon Austin was the best player on that team. And I'm a Geno guy.

I take Geno 1 and Tavon with that 2nd rounder in a second if he's on the board.