ChiefsPlanet - Poop Playoff Odds according to footballoutsiders.com

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Playoff Odds according to footballoutsiders.com (https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=236309)

Playoff Odds according to footballoutsiders.com

I just posted this on the Jets site (my team for those that don't know), thought you guys might like to see what the predictions/simulations are for KC

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 10,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 10,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

Code:

AFC West

Team        Rec        WEI DVOA        Mean Wins        #1        #2        #3        #4        #5        #6        DIV        BYE        WC        TOT        CHANGE

KC        5-2        29.2%        11.4        19.1%        24.9%        23.2%        25.5%        0.5%        1.0%        92.7%        44.0%        1.5%        94.2%        0.4%

SD        3-5        17.0%        8.0        0.0%        0.6%        1.4%        2.9%        1.8%        7.3%        4.9%        0.7%        9.1%        14.0%        4.0%

OAK        4-4        -9.1%        7.0        0.0%        0.2%        0.4%        1.7%        0.3%        1.6%        2.3%        0.2%        1.9%        4.2%        2.3%

DEN        2-6        -24.2%        4.6        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%        0.0%        0.2%        -0.3%

The table's a little messed up, here's a screen

http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y13...playoffskc.jpg

Playoff Scenarios
This report lists the odds of each team

* Reaching the Conference Championship Game
* Winning the Conference Championship Game
* Winning the Super Bowl

Code:

 Conf App  Conf Win    SB Win

NYG        50.3%        30.6%        16.0%

KC        43.1%        23.6%        13.1%

NE        41.1%        22.1%        12.0%

PIT        36.6%        19.4%        10.4%

PHI        32.7%        18.8%        10.3%

ATL        46.0%        22.5%        9.6%

GB        30.7%        14.4%        6.5%

TEN        18.3%        8.8%        5.0%

IND        17.2%        7.8%        3.8%

NYJ        17.7%        8.0%        3.7%

NO        17.7%        7.2%        2.8%

BAL        14.2%        5.8%        2.6%

MIA        5.7%        2.4%        1.2%

TB        6.8%        2.0%        0.7%

SEA        6.6%        1.9%        0.6%

SD        2.7%        1.1%        0.5%

HOU        2.6%        1.0%        0.3%

SF        1.8%        0.5%        0.2%

WAS        1.7%        0.5%        0.2%

CHI        1.6%        0.5%        0.2%

STL        1.9%        0.5%        0.1%

MIN        1.4%        0.4%        0.1%

DET        0.5%        0.2%        0.0%

OAK        0.4%        0.1%        0.0%

ARI        0.4%        0.0%        0.0%

JAC        0.2%        0.1%        0.0%

CLE        0.1%        0.0%        0.0%

CIN        0.1%        0.0%        0.0%

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

Stating the obvious.

How's our balls taste AFCW?...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rausch (Post 7145172)

Stating the obvious.

How's our balls taste AFCW?...

LOL you win the worst division in football. Doesn't mean you're playoff caliber. It means you're the shiniest piece of ****ing shit in the pile of shit. Point is: you're still shit.

EDIT: Oh I would say this about Oakland also.... in fact, I already have.

Quote:

Originally Posted by JTagg7754 (Post 7145185)

So if we make the playoffs by winning the division, it doesn't mean we are playoff caliber?

Quote:

Originally Posted by JTagg7754 (Post 7145185)

LOL you win the worst division in football. Doesn't mean you're playoff caliber.

Yeah, douche, that's exactly what it means...

The Chargers will the division again this year. They're very sneaky, (ask the Donk fans).

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gadzooks (Post 7145202)

The Chargers will the division again this year.

Will they the whole thing?...

Funny. When I look at the Raiders schedule I see them with 7 wins total too.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheGuardian (Post 7145211)

Funny. When I look at the Raiders schedule I see them with 7 wins total too.

I see 6.

Tomato, tomatoe...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fumblerooskie (Post 7145195)

So if we make the playoffs by winning the division, it doesn't mean we are playoff caliber?

If you don't understand the difference and cannot comprehend it using my example, I don't feel that further explanation will help.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rausch (Post 7145205)

Will they the whole thing?...

But, of course.

Giants - Chiefs Super Bowl? I think I could live with that, I am not sure how Jerry will feel about hosting the Giants for a Super Bowl in his beloved stadium. ROFL

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hydrae (Post 7145221)

Giants - Chiefs Super Bowl? I think I could live with that, I am not sure how Jerry will feel about hosting the Giants for a Super Bowl in his beloved stadium. ROFL

The Chiefs aren't even playoff caliber but you think they're Super Bowl caliber? Holy shit. Homerism has reached a new high. The Chiefs will get beat by whomever they play in round 1 and I don't even care who it is.

This seems like a bad omen. However it sure beats backing into the playoffs like the herminator did. If we can get the monkey off our back and beat the streak and atleast win a first or second round game.. I would feel immensely better.

Quote:

Originally Posted by JTagg7754 (Post 7145216)

If you don't understand the difference and cannot comprehend it using my example, I don't feel that further explanation will help.

I understand that the statement you made was poorly worded. I certainly believe you meant that even though the Chiefs win the shitty AFC west, that does not mean we can compete against other playoff competition. But unfortunately that isn't what you said. Whether you decide to admit you were vague and essentially incorrect in your statement is entirely up to you. We don't expect much from you except clowish behavior anyway...