Do Geno fans have overinflated expectations?
 

Suppose we take Geno with the number one overall pick. What kind of career can we realistically expect from him? Realistically--if we actually use the statistics Geno fans like to toss around (especially those who hate Alex Smith)--statistics from www.pro-football-reference.com , we can, on average, expect Geno Smith-or any number 1 draft pick- to be Brad Johnson.

Is Brad Johnson a franchise QB?

Right now, from an overall career standpoint, Alex Smith isn't even a Brad Johnson according to pro-football-reference. However, looking at his last couple of years, his best years, he has topped Brad Johnson compared to Johnson's best two years when you look at QB rating.

If Reid and Dorsey believe that Alex Smith is on an upward trajectory careerwise, then we got him for a steal.

Anyway, here is an interesting article about draft picks based upon expected Career Approximate Values for each draft slot which argues that the current draft value chart is outdated and a new one needs to replace it. It was created by a Harvard economics student. The upshot of the value chart basically says that high draft picks are currently over-rated and mid-round draft picks are under-rated.

http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpre...l-draft-picks/

Kind of interesting and worth the read.

trade down

draft barkley w/mid round pick

win

Lol Barkley?


Yeah, he's Cassel's lil bro

I expect Hall of Fame, and lengthy debates on whether or not he was "the best ever".

No. True fans do. They expect every QB prospect to be Andrew Luck. Otherwise, he's not worth taking a risk on. Better to have a safe investment, in case, God forbid, the QB busts and you end up 2-14 or something.

Since almost every Genofan on this board seems fascinated by his "chocolate cock" more than anything else, I assume they dream of him appearing in a Playgirl centerfold layout in his first year.

I can't tell if they have any football expectations of him or not.

oh sheesh, there are like 2 dudes on here that spew that choch peen stuff, but the majority of Geno ballwashers (like myself) can speak rationally and appropriately about our wants for Geno (or any Highly rated QB the chiefs have a chance to draft).


and it's more about the Importance of the position and the ignorance the chiefs have shown towards it since Blacklegde busted. They have been giant pussies ever since, and giant pussies only win dicks... not super bowls.

If Geno IS going to succeed in the NFL, can you think of a better location/environment than KC?

-Quality QB coaches
-Friendly system
-Jamaal Charles
-Dwayne Bowe
-A franchise LT (currently)
-Ability to take his time... doesn't have to rush into starting for the team yet

I can not. Tell me this isn't the PERFECT time to take a guy like Geno who has the arm, athleticism, and the will to get it done.

What that means for the expectations is nothing. It's possible it doesn't work out, but I'll be ****ed if we ever get another opportunity like this in the NEXT 30 years to try and make the home-grown QB thing work.

I'm not so sure Barkley won't be the best in this draft.

oh back to topic.

I expect Geno Smith (or any QB) to help win a respectable amount of games in year 1.
Show great improvement with the team in year 2.
Playoff win by year 3.
Deeper Playoff run in year 4.
Super Bowl in year 5.


If this doesn't look even close to happening, then you draft the next best QB prospect and try again until you get it right.

I bet it has more to do with the fact that he had three great years in college, a great combine, a great pro day, and appears to be a really great human being as well. Who wouldn't want someone like that to be their franchise QB?

Sounds a lot like Jacksonville tbh.

but he may turn out not to be a HOFer.....
Too risky. LT.

Jaguars front office and fan base are equally reeruned. Excepted you have Alex Smith. We have dead man walking Gabbert that our staff plans to use to tank the season.

I don't know if expectations are too high. I do wonder how patient people would be. Not just the true fans either. I could be wrong... we'll never know because this team will never do it. But you do see some of the comments people make about guys like Locker or Ponder, or even Andy Dalton... and you wonder. Griffin and Luck and Wilson have ruined it for everyone.

Geno Smith is the next Vince Young. Needs another year to ride the bench and grow up. But he will not get it.

He will get thrust into starting role by week 5 and if he doesn't have success it will ruin him.

ROFL.

The comparison is beyond asinine.

However, thrown into a hostile environment (poor coaching, poor support system, etc) is a recipe for disaster with most rookies regardless of position. Incidentally, that's why Geno makes a lot of sense at 1.1 to me, even with Alex Smith.

You'd be able to provide him with a solid support system (solid but not elite OL, great running game, solid coaches) and would ensure that he'd either get a year at least to sit or beat out Alex in TC.

Expectations? I would imagine that the only people who have expectations, realistic or otherwise, are his detractors. Most of the people in favor of him for the pick understand that although he was a fantastic player for three years and may be far and away the most talented QB in this draft, that's no guarantee for success at the next level. On the flip side most of the people in favor of him also understand that you can't ever draft a franchise quarterback if you don't ever actually attempt to try to draft a franchise quarterback. Most of the people in favor of him understand that we are in a unique position as a team, a position we've never found ourselves in before, where we would have had the opportunity to draft a potential franchise player without any chance at another team's interference.

But the key word there is "potential". Drafting Geno Smith, and the discussion of Geno Smith, has never been about expectations. It's been about potential. What he might be. Which, to bring Alex Smith into the discussion, is the area where the issue with his presence lies (at least for me): Alex Smith is a known quantity. He's a game manager with limited skills in the intermediate and deep passing game, a player who has established by this point that he needs to rely on a strong running game to limit mistakes and a defense to carry him to wins. The kind of quarterback that barely survives low scoring games. He is what he is, and it's pretty unlikely that he's going to become anything more than that at this point.

So the question becomes this: do you want a known quantity with limited upside for a fairly high price? A player who's middle of the pack at best, isn't likely to lead your team anywhere on his own merits, but also isn't likely to make a lot of costly mistakes. Or do you want an unknown quantity with both nearly limitless upside as well as a real risk for failure, at the highest price possible (well, short of trading up to 1)? A player that could be, in time, one of the tops at his position in the league, or...may never be.

In any event, it doesn't really matter; they made their choice.

And I'm admittedly a conspiracy nut, but I believe they made it before they even went through the process of evaluating this draft class. I think Alex Smith was a part of the lengthy day-long discussion Andy Reid had with Clark prior to KC hiring the coach, and I think making a strong move for him was a contingency of the hire. Which, if true, would be a real shame, because that would mean we'd anchored ourselves to him without even considering any other possibilities.

(This is just a personal theory, based on absolutely nothing but a gut feeling...)

While this can probably and justifiably be chalked up to homerism for Geno, I am starting to think that Andy/Dorsey are trolling and will take Geno.

I'm not really sure why I feel this way other than pure homerism/optimism, but it just seems right to me.

If by trolling, you mean trolling for trade offers, then you better hope they don't get one, that they're stuck with the pick and just say **** it and draft him.

I think if he was their guy, we'd already know it. They don't really have anything to gain by blowing smoke if their actual intention is to draft him. It's not like anybody can leapfrog them.

They seem really interested in trading down. Which if it happens means he ain't our pick whether they like him or not.

True.

After watching nearly all of Barkley's 11 and '12 film, I would love to have him at 1.8 if KC traded down.

It would really sadden me if we refused to draft a QB until the 5th in this draft (Landry Jones).

Do people still think we're taking a QB with the first pick?

There is a part of me that thinks that KC will try to have the best QB situation possible going into next year.

IMO, that would mean Alex, Geno, Chase + Stanzi/Tanney as camp fodder.

Reid said he'll find our franchise QB but it might not be this year. I could see us taking a QB in the 1st round next year if Alex Game Manager doesn't impress like I think he won't.

I could understand that. However, KC will likely have to trade up, even if they finish 6-10.

At 1.1, you have the ability to draft the best QB available (who IMO will grade out favorably in comparison to the other coming out next year).

I agree I just don't think it's in the plans. I wish though.

Geno already has a bust ready to go at Canton.

You are QBotF fan profiling. Geno "ballwashers" are the tip of iceberg. A cold razer edged icecycle that can slice.

I dont want to trade Branden Albert
- But if we do...I want a 1st rd pick in return, and Joeckel has to be the first overall pick at that point.

If Albert stays, then the best option for KC is to trade down.

If they can't trade down, then the best option for KC is to draft Geno Smith, but only as trade bait for teams like Jax/Buf/Oak who openly publically have a hard on for that guy, and acquire more picks, including possibly getting back that 2nd rd pick (and more).

If they can't find a trade partner for Geno, then just keep Geno and have Alex Smith play out his contract and have Geno Smith learn the ropes and speed of the game and he can pick up the game running by then much like Rodgers did when Favre left.

Joeckel has to be the first overall pick at that point.

What an absolute waste of putting up with 4 years of Scooter *****, Cassel, and a 2-14 season.

2 wins only to replace our damn good LT with a pudgy rook. Not improving the team at all with the number one pick....AWESOME!!

Geno is ****ed, we're ****ed, Andy Reid is ****ed, John Dorsey is ****ed and Clark Hunt is ****ed.

We don't take Geno, and everyone loses.

He was meant to be here and our asshole GM and HC are spitting in the face of the football gods.

You can't do anything about the past. That's neither here or there.

But fact is...if Albert leaves...all of a sudden we have a HUGE gaping hole at LT, with a new QB with a new coaching staff with new players he's not used to playing with.

And that will be the position our awesome new regime put this team in.
Great job, huh?

EVALUATION YEAR

I think all we can really expect is a guy that come here an' by year 2 (at the latest) is ready to take over and has earned the chance to start. By year 3 you would expect a top 20 QB.

All this is the minimum expected of any top 10 QB pick...

IF we had a mod with a sack between her legs, the thread would of been locked after Hamas dropped a Truth bomb on this message board...

Great post, Keg.

And there's no "conspiracy theory" about it - there a quote floating around from Reid that said he had his eye on Alex Smith before he ever took the job.

If they do shock the world and take Geno heads will explode.

Dorsey will be worshiped like a god.

Temples will be erected and at his parking space will be offerings of gold, frankincense and myrrh.

Excellent post :thumb: Your gut is very accurate and no you are not a conspiracy nut. You are just following the age old adage "ignore what they say BUT watch what they do" AND THEN put the pieces together.

When you are an owner sitting at 2-14 with the best fan base in the NFL that is about ready to commit a mutiny meltdown you will agree to just about anything especially from a previous very successful HC who has several playoff wins, a SB appearance and very good at developing QBs within the last 10yrs who btw ALSO sees a great opportunity with an owner in a very vulnerable situation with a team of good talent, with the No. 1 pick that he can pretty much continue to 'write is own ticket'. Andy ain't no dumb ass ;)

Andy sold Clark on the fact that he can do even better than what Harbaugh did with Smith and will take Smith to an even higher level and Smith will be more successful under Andy's tutelage. Andy really believes this because let's back to that age old adage, "ignore what they say and watch what they do" (giving up a 2nd this year and a 2nd next year). You don't give up picks like that unless you 'really' believe you can improve Alex even further to get to the SB.

Alex Smith had roster bonuses due. If we were going to take him, we had to before those bonuses kicked in... and had a chance to fully evaluate the QB's in the draft class. We have too good of a team in place to not hedge our bets with Alex.

If Geno grades out... I think we take him.

Even though we already had the #1 overall pick, a 1st/2nd/and a conditional is not too much money to invest in the most important position on the football team.

Many teams have spent far more than that.

My expectations are what Keg outlined at that point.

Are you ignoring recent developments?

Albert is out of here.

We're taking Joeckel.

Best case scenario we trade down and pick one of the other OTs and get someone else in the 2nd.

But the dream of Geno has never been deader.

Denial can be a fun safe place, just for awhile though then reality hits and you then must 'pay the piper'.;)

But I do like your fantasy world though:thumb:

No I am not.

Geno at #1
Terron Armstead, OT, Arkansas Pine-Bluff in the 2nd.

I will suck your dick if this comes to pass.

People seem to have not read the article (not saying you haven't), but we are talking about the #1 overall pick, not a top 10 QB pick. The article states, and I hate to temper anyone's enthusiasm (or blind ballwashing devotion), that if you use the #1 overall pick on a QB you can expect to draft, on average, Brad Johnson. All the emotion of the pick is stripped out. Based on statistics, and statistics alone, you are drafting someone with a Career Approximate Value of Brad Johnson. (The article also states that a couple of other players with the same CAV would include Rodney Harrison and Corey Dillon.)

So let me rephrase the question: Would you be disappointed if you drafted a Brad Johnson, Rodney Harrison or a Corey Dillon with the #1 overall pick?

I think folks expect a whole lot more than that with the #1 overall pick, and I think that is what is feeding the Geno frenzy. I think the emotional investment from fans warps expectations (I am guilty of it too) because we naively believe our picks somehow magically have more potential
and value than they really do.

That said, I still want Geno as the number 1 pick. I've stated it many times on this forum and have a "Bank on it" thread somewhere.

Why not? Other than ILB its the weakest position on the team.

Not now because we have Captain America !!!:D

I will roll the dice on the most important position in sports EVERY time till I have a true franchise QB then continue to take shots at one every draft at some point if possible.

Appreciate the offer, but I think I will pass.

I think this new regime is doing its due diligence with regards to every position.

Even though we spent a 2nd (and a conditional) on Alex Smith, they owe him nothing.

Listening to the trade down offers are a must. If someone offers a deal too good to be true, you have to have your bases covered with the rest of the QB's in the draft... just in case.

And if we have to trade Albert... :shrug:

Not my favorite choice, but it is what it is. We don't have to spend a first to replace him.

I'd rather have Kyle Long.

I'm OK with that. Just pointing out there are other options than OT in the 1st round.

Howie's black sheep kid which is fine.:D

I don't know what you mean by this. I think everyone has a different definition of "true franchise quarterback."

How long do you give a draft pick to establish himself to be a "true franchise quarterback"?

How can a quarterback establish himself as a "true franchise quarterback" if you are constantly (every year by your words) drafting for one? Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you are saying.

I think people are throwing around these vague words thinking that everyone else has the same definition of what these words mean in their respective minds.

What is a true franchise quarterback? I don't understand what people think that means.

I think people like using that phrase because it is a "good thing" but it is hard to define. I suppose it is kind of like pornography; it is hard to define, but you know what it is when you see it.

Would you consider Brad Johnson a franchise quarterback? Would you consider McNabb a franchise QB? Would you consider Brad Johnson more of a franchise QB than McNabb or the other way around? Why?

KC drafts Geno, trades Chubby Chase for a fourth rounder, KC drafts second coming of Jared Allen with extra fourth round pick. KC wins multiple Superbowls with Geno and "Jared".

KEEP ****ING DOUBTING MY GM ABILITIES

You give the guy at least three years to develop. Brad Johnson is not a franchise QB. McNabb was a franchise QB. A franchise QB is any QB that is able to take the team on his back and lead them to victory.

You just described Ricky Stanzi.

Brad Johnson has a Super Bowl ring, McNabb doesn't.

Doesn't matter

And personally I don't care if they take Geno or not. Take the whomever you think is the best QB in this class. If he crashes and burns take another one in a high round until you do get a good one.

It doesn't? So you would rather have a "franchise QB" -whatever that is- than a Super Bowl victory?

Once again, tell me, what is a franchise QB?

That's because Brad Johnson rode the coattails of an historic defense. By your logic, Dan Marino is not a franchise QB.

Brad Johnson is the exception, not the norm.

I don't consider expectations for Geno Smith to be overinflated, but I do think folks are making him seem like he's a no risk player. He isn't. There are parts of his game that are underdeveloped and it is certainly questionable as to whether Geno Smith can handle pressure of the NFL better than pressure of college ball. Can he mature?

I have always maintained he could have good success if paired with a sympathetic offensive minded coach like Gruden or Jim Harbaugh. But I don't consider Andy Reid to coach like Gruden does, he demands his QB play the game his way and the WCO is a complex system for any young man to command.

I still feel this draft is awash from 1 to 15 and Geno Smith isn't really a top fifteen player in a normal draft, but I would grab him because this team needs to start grabbing young QB talent and he does have elite ability, not necessarily saying he is elite overall.

I like his throwing motion a lot. I like the trajectory he has, very high release and the ball points down when he makes short passes, which is great for WCO style and guarding the ball from INT during tips. It also makes it harder to make a play, defensively.

He's got an elite arm, decent accuracy, but I have read where he loses focus and accuracy. We saw this during a few plays when he was up against K State and Baylor.

I'm not sure how I feel about his nerve, though it seems he does stand in during blitz and pass rushing that gets in on him.

Those are the areas of concern for me.

Once again, a franchise QB is a QB that takes the team on his back and wills them to victory.

Examples: Montana, Elway, Graham, Staubach, Marino, Bradshaw, Manning, Brady, Roethlisberger, Manning II, and Flacco.

It isn't my logic. I'm trying to understand what people mean when they say "franchise QB."

There are a lot of "franchise QBs" that have never won a SB:

Dan Marino
Archie Manning
Fran Tarkenton
Dan Fouts
Sonny Jurgensen
Kenny Anderson
Donovan McNabb
Roman Gabriel
Jim Kelly
Boomer Esiason
Steve McNair
Bert Jones
Phillip Rivers
Ron Jaworski
Daunte Culpepper
Joe Ferguson
Steve Grogan
Ton Romo

By reading all your posts for months I would say you
Posted via Mobile Device

This article has a similar problem that those who have super high expectations for Geno have. It treats Geno as a plain-vanilla, generic player whose future will be determined on the basis of the position he's taken in the draft and statistics based on that draft position. That said, it's an interesting analysis about draft value.

If people look at Geno Smith as an individual and determine that his talents warrant making him your starting QB, he absolutely deserves to be taken 1.1. Not everyone is convinced of that though. For example, I was listening to a ProFootballWeekly podcast this morning and their draft "experts" have Geno ranked as the 102nd player overall and the 6th best QB.

you stole my post
Posted via Mobile Device

Holy ****ing shit, I'm sick hearing about Geno Smith.

They have to be idiots, then. Actual, confirmed idiots. Like, "makes a strong argument for eugenics" type idiots.

:LOL:

The Donks just scored and it is 23-19 with 2:36 left in the game. Do you trust that your QB is capable of carrying the team on his back and orchestrate the epic last second TD drive? If yes, you have a franchise QB. If no, you need to keep looking until you find one.

That is gobbledygook. It means nothing. It has no more meaning than saying someone is a "franchise quarterback.

Listing examples, on the other hand, gives us a frame of reference. We can look at their Career Approximate Value (CAV) based on statistics stripping out emotion.

Montana: 123
Elway: 138
Graham: 84
Staubach: 104
Marino: 145
Bradshaw: 106
P. Manning: 165
E. Manning: 86
Brady: 140
Roethlisberger: 86
Flacco: 55

OK, here are a couple of interesting facts about what you consider a "franchise QB": 1) with a couple of exceptions (Flacco and Roethlisberger) a franchise QB is either a current hall of famer or a future hall of famer, 2) with one exception (Flacco) all the QBs you've listed have a higher CAV than what you can typically expect with the number one overall pick (74).

You've supported the very point I was making in the OP. Thank you.

Yeah that game where he went 45-51 656 yards 8TDs and 0 INTS was rough...

So Brad Johnson is basicly the "mean" of 1st round QBs. So if Brad Johnsons skill set is the average the real question would be where does Genos skill set fall in the bell curve. I do think Brad Johnson is a very average QB. He was merely in the right place at the right time to get his SB ring. Awesome D along with Gruden vs Raiders/Gannon.
Time will tell us all where Geno belongs and whether taking him or passing was the correct decision.
The biggest thing for the fans IMO is: If not now, when?
This draft has the feel of '08 when it was Matt Ryan or Jake Long.
No I don't really want "Matt Ryan" as my QB. He is not a franchise QB IMO. He cannot put a team on his back and win.
So if Reid and Dorsey view Geno as "Matt Ryan" I hope we do pass on him because we would be stuck with a good QB that can't win you a SB.

Do you even watch football?

What do you call this?

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