Why not wait and see if a lifelong 20 handicap beats Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, etc at the Masters in a few weeks?

I mean, expecting the same results without waiting to see isn't very smart. Or so I've been told.

It depends. I don't expect them to become a SB contender in the first year after going 2-14, and anyone that does is being very unrealistic. I think 7or 8 wins the first year would be a success. I hope for better, since I think we were a better team than the 2-14 record shows, but I think 7-8 wins is a reasonable expectation.

No, it actually doesn't.

We're hoping for mediocrity from a 29-year-old QB, as if these shouldn't be the prime years of his career. He's not ascending. At best, his talent will plateau until around 33.

This

Seriously.

This trade is a win now move. And you are banking on winning with ****ing Alex Smith?

7 - 8 wins is a ****ing failure.

oh please, don't throw me in with gochief and co.

I did my best to give cassel a fair chance as well as the rest of the previous administration.

Alex Smith IS more physically gifted than Matt Cassel but even under Harbaugh it didn't really translate to significant improvement. You could easily lay the improved production onto the 49ers total talent level and better coaching than the Chiefs had.

If Alex Smith doesn't have a clean pocket, he tends to shit the bed.
If Alex Smith has too many bad things happen, he gets nervous and shits the bed.
If you ask Alex Smith to carry too much of a load, he tends to shit the bed.

all of these things are very similar to Matt Cassel and a game-manager level Quarterback.

Hey, i could be wrong ... Alex Smith might just need a chance.

24 TD's, 11 INT's 3,300 yds 62%

Thank you. That's a legitimate argument. My point is that I really don't think Reid is bringing Smith in here with the expectation of throwing 20 times a game for less than 200 yards. Our defense was terrible last year.

I've seen plenty of Alex Smith play to see just how mediocre he is and also him taking hits that are going knock him out of games as he is older. He wont last 3 years starting with the Chiefs. He will play ok but nothing great to be excited about. That is the best expectations I have for him.

I'm just trying to get a handle on the expectations.

I mean, I thought 3000 yards and improving by 5 or 6 wins would be categorized as good, solid performance, and a reasonable expectation for the guy, based on his career to date. Expecting more than that would I think fall into the "overinflated expectations" category, to borrow the term from the other thread, and wouldn't I think be fair to the guy.

I also thought Fat Elvis' projections were in the same basic neighborhood, albeit a hair more optimistic than mine. (65% completion, 3500 yards, 20 TDs, 7 Ints). He sees more wins (11 versus my 7-8), but that's not as much about Alex Smith on my end as it is about expecting there to be some flux after a complete front office turnover. Philosophically speaking I also wouldn't head into any season expecting 11 wins, much less a year after going 2-14. You're basically asking to be disappointed there. I try to limit my expectations in that sense.

I'm struggling to figure out where I was unfair, or why my scenario was "bad".

Okay, that makes sense.

Why will Alex Smith be better in KC than he's ever been in his career? I'm ready for a convincing argument in response to this question.

And I don't want to read, "Because of Andy Reid."