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-   -   Elections What If There Were No Swing States? (http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=265030)

HolyHandgernade 10-12-2012 02:05 PM

What If There Were No Swing States?
 
Hypothetically, what if, barring greatsocial/political upheaval, there were no swing states, or at the very least, one party had enough states he or she could count on each year that it guaranteed that party at least 271 electoral votes?

Do you think they would move to get rid of the electoral college?

If one party held complete sway like that, would it rip the nation apart?

cosmo20002 10-12-2012 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HolyHandgernade (Post 9005598)
Hypothetically, what if, barring greatsocial/political upheaval, there were no swing states, or at the very least, one party had enough states he or she could count on each year that it guaranteed that party at least 271 electoral votes?

Do you think they would move to get rid of the electoral college?

If one party held complete sway like that, would it rip the nation apart?

We'll know soon enough, when the last of the old racist cranks propping up the R party finally keel over in a couple decades.

jiveturkey 10-12-2012 02:16 PM

It's been talked about a bit on here that if Latinos stay with the Dems Texas might be in play as early as 2016 (more likely 2020).

If the Dems can count on TX, CA and NY then I don't think you'll see a Repub president for a long time.

This seems a little far fetched to me but I guess it plays well with your hypothetical.

Rain Man 10-12-2012 02:22 PM

I think this has been the case in a lot of elections. When Nixon beat McGovern or when Reagan beat Mondale, I don't think we had a lot of swing states. So all it means is that one candidate is much stronger. Americans don't like that, so it would swing back eventually, or in a more extreme case the more powerful party would eventually splinter.

jiveturkey 10-12-2012 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rain Man (Post 9005631)
I think this has been the case in a lot of elections. When Nixon beat McGovern or when Reagan beat Mondale, I don't think we had a lot of swing states. So all it means is that one candidate is much stronger. Americans don't like that, so it would swing back eventually, or in a more extreme case the more powerful party would eventually splinter.

I also think it's likely that they would be rolling out some terrible candidates, which would put some weird places in play that might not have been in the past.

Absolutely power would definitely lead to complacency.

Deberg_1990 10-12-2012 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cosmo20002 (Post 9005609)
We'll know soon enough, when the last of the old racist cranks propping up the R party finally keel over in a couple decades.

Yes, because the Dems never have any old racist cranks.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Byrd

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strom_thurmond

KCTitus 10-12-2012 05:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HolyHandgernade (Post 9005598)
Hypothetically, what if, barring greatsocial/political upheaval, there were no swing states, or at the very least, one party had enough states he or she could count on each year that it guaranteed that party at least 271 electoral votes?

Do you think they would move to get rid of the electoral college?

If one party held complete sway like that, would it rip the nation apart?

Absolute power corrupts, absolutely...the electoral college balances states/population. It should not be abolished, otherwise we no longer have a representative democracy but pure democracy which would lead to socialism, then communism.

stonedstooge 10-12-2012 05:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KCTitus (Post 9006142)
Absolute power corrupts, absolutely...the electoral college balances states/population. It should not be abolished, otherwise we no longer have a representative democracy but pure democracy which would lead to socialism, then communism.

I Barrack O'Bama approve this message

Saul Good 10-12-2012 07:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jiveturkey (Post 9005619)
It's been talked about a bit on here that if Latinos stay with the Dems Texas might be in play as early as 2016 (more likely 2020).

If the Dems can count on TX, CA and NY then I don't think you'll see a Repub president for a long time.

This seems a little far fetched to me but I guess it plays well with your hypothetical.

What is the fastest growing area of the country?

jiveturkey 10-12-2012 07:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saul Too (Post 9006542)
What is the fastest growing area of the country?

I did a quick search and it looks like the south has experienced the most growth over the last 10 years or so.

qabbaan 10-12-2012 07:54 PM

What if the red states and blue states became two separate countries?

Saul Good 10-12-2012 07:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jiveturkey (Post 9006559)
I did a quick search and it looks like the south has experienced the most growth over the last 10 years or so.

Yep. The southeast in particular.

alnorth 10-12-2012 07:56 PM

If Romney were to hypothetically win the popular vote but lose the electoral college, that would be the election result that finally forced major change.

We probably wouldn't amend the constitution, but a whole lot of red states would sign onto the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact.

Deberg_1990 10-12-2012 08:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth (Post 9006576)
If Romney were to hypothetically win the popular vote but lose the electoral college, that would be the election result that finally forced major change.

Isnt this what happened to Gore in 2000? No change...

Aries Walker 10-12-2012 10:18 PM

Yup.

Also, political parties evolve. The ostracized party would change its platform and people would shuffle parties, like the Dixiecrats did in the 60's.

alnorth 10-12-2012 10:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Deberg_1990 (Post 9006627)
Isnt this what happened to Gore in 2000? No change...

Yes, change, at least attempted. A lot of blue states signed onto the NPV Interstate Compact. The red states idiotically didn't sign on because their ox wasnt gored (pun intended) and they thought their party was magically immune to getting screwed by the electoral college.

If Obama wins a second term despite losing the popular vote by a full point, Texas will be introducing legislation next year to join the compact.

Saul Good 10-13-2012 06:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HolyHandgernade (Post 9005598)
Hypothetically, what if, barring greatsocial/political upheaval, there were no swing states, or at the very least, one party had enough states he or she could count on each year that it guaranteed that party at least 271 electoral votes?

Do you think they would move to get rid of the electoral college?

If one party held complete sway like that, would it rip the nation apart?

Have you ever heard anyone ever use the "two lemonade stands on a beach" model to discuss economics? The same holds true with two parties.

Basically, if you have a long stretch of beach, and there are only two competing lemonade stands on the entire beach, the lemonade stands will wind up right next to each other. One gets all the traffic from the right, and the other gets all the traffic from the left. If one moves slightly farther to the right/left, the other will move with it.

A Salt Weapon 10-13-2012 07:09 AM

I bet the one on the right is a more profitable lemonade stand and the one on the left relies on subsidies and handouts to stay afloat.
Posted via Mobile Device

jiveturkey 10-13-2012 07:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saul Too (Post 9006574)
Yep. The southeast in particular.

Have you seen anything on how this is affecting voting down there?

Are the demographics changing like in Texas?

The growth in the south doesn't really apply to the swing state argument unless some of those states wind up with major electoral gains and remain red or if there is major demo shifts that turn them blue.

alnorth 10-13-2012 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jiveturkey (Post 9007258)
Have you seen anything on how this is affecting voting down there?

Are the demographics changing like in Texas?

The growth in the south doesn't really apply to the swing state argument unless some of those states wind up with major electoral gains and remain red or if there is major demo shifts that turn them blue.

Old angry white men are dying, and are being replaced by latinos. Romney can still win this year with the angry white guy vote but 8 years from now if not 4, the GOP will have to radically alter their approach to survive.

Calcountry 10-13-2012 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jiveturkey (Post 9005651)
I also think it's likely that they would be rolling out some terrible candidates, which would put some weird places in play that might not have been in the past.

Absolutely power would definitely lead to complacency.

Which is the beauty of Federalism. You can move. The electoral college changes every 10 years, and the fourth branch of government, is the final and ultimate check against the tyranny of the other three.

ClevelandBronco 10-13-2012 05:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth (Post 9007879)
Old angry white men are dying, and are being replaced by latinos. Romney can still win this year with the angry white guy vote but 8 years from now if not 4, the GOP will have to radically alter their approach to survive.

I agree with this. Fortunately, I don't give a **** about what happens to the United States anymore.

whoman69 10-14-2012 09:39 AM

I go back to a more representative model in Nebraska and Maine where each congressional district is in play. I would rather see that implemented than a temporary agreement where states give their votes to the winner of the national popular vote despite the voice of their citizens.

patteeu 10-14-2012 09:46 AM

I don't know where all this anti-Electoral College sentiment comes from really.


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