Nightfyre's initial QB rankings
 

My current QB rankings:
1) Geno Smith
t2) Tyler Wilson
t2) Matt Barkley
4) Logan Thomas
5) EJ Manuel
6) Aaron Murray
7) AJ McCarron
8) Tyler Bray
9) Landry Jones

Just thought you might all like to know.
Just to keep the record straight, my history is as follows:
2009: I was on the draft Sanchez bandwagon
2010: I was on the draft Bradford/Clausen bandwagon
2011: I was against Cam Newton and Jake Locker, but on board with Gabbert, Ponder and Mallett in the second AND third
2012: I was on the Andrew Luck bandwagon in early 2011 and was probably one of the first here to get on the RGIII bandwagon. I also proposed drafting Russell Wilson in the third and was among his biggest advocates here.

Not a big fan of Bray? Really?

I too was on the Sanchez and Clausen wagons. I did not like Bradford.

In 2011, I was not in favor of getting a QB in the 1st. I wasn't that crazy about it in 2012 either, but I sure liked making the necessary move from the 2nd to land Brandon Weeden.

1. Geno Smith, West Virginia
2. Tyler Wilson, Arkansas
3. Matt Barkley, USC
4. Lance Jones, Oklahoma
5. Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech
6. Aaron Murray, Georgia
7. Tyler Bray, Tennessee
8. Ryan Nassib, Syracuse
9. Mike Glennon, North Carolina
10. Brad Sorensen, Southern Utah

Geno Smith, and it's not close. Smith has an uncanny feel for the game, possessing a remarkable pocket presence, strength, one of the quickest releases I've ever seen at the college level, amazing accuracy, strong arm, excellent athleticism, etc. He's a tough guy and a winner. I like him as much as Luck and Griffin last year, and feel he's a combination of both.

Wilson I like a lot, and I think he's got a lot of talent for the next level, but the two concussions scare the hell out of me.

At least to me, Barkley and Jones are about the same guy. The potential for very good/great game managers for teams with good defenses already in place. (And I think both would be good additions for this Chiefs team. Definite upgrade to Cassel.)

Logan Thomas and Aaron Murray are about the same player, with the exception of size. Thomas is huge and Murray is small. But both can be terrific when on and pretty bad when they are off - and both happen with regularity.

Bray has the arm, but he apparently acts like an entitled kid. His coach has already said he needs to grow up and this past summer he was bombing beer bottles at cars in his apartment complex.

Nassib is a stout QB who has put up really good numbers in his career. I'm surprised he isn't getting more attention around here as an option if the Chiefs go other than QB in the first round. (Though, in most peoples minds, there isn't much other options than a QB in 2013.) I thought that he looked every bit as good as Barkley in their week two matchup this season.

Glennon has a ton of potential. He's got a big arm and can really work the field. He's big and athletic as well. He forces things sometimes though.

Sorensen has prototype size (6'5", 235 lb.), maturity (red shirt BYU transfer), and has a very good arm. Not as mobile, he'll have to go to a team that runs a true pocket QB type offense. The potential for a late round steal here.

And to follow Nightfrye's lead:

2009: I thought Sanchez was okay, but didn't warrant a top ten pick.
2010: Really liked Bradford and loathed Clausen.
2011: Loved Cam Newton, and really wanted the Chiefs to have the opportunity to pick Ponder as I thought he would be a perfect fit for this team.
2012: If you didn't love Luck your were and idiot. Griffin is terrific, but scares me a bit with his play. I think he's going to get killed. He's a smaller version of Steve Young, IMO.

I thought my position on Bray would be an eye-catcher. The thing that gets me is that incident where he and his buddy threw beer bottles at his neighbor's car. That screams poor judgement and leadership, even if under the influence of alcohol. Plus he has a really wonky release which causes him to be inconsistent/inaccurate.

Logan Thomas intrigues me a lot because that dude can spin it, even in the face of pressure, but he doesn't go through many progressions which is a red flag that knocks him down the list.

1. Geno Smith
2. Tyler Wilson
3. Matt Barkley
4. Tyler Bray
5. AJ McCarron
6. Aaron Murray
7. Casey Pachall

Haven't watched a bunch of Pachall, but he has looked like a much better passer Jones or Thomas to this point.

AJ McCarron is the surprise of the year behind Geno Smith (for those who didn't think he'd be a top 15 pick) IMO. He's grown from a game manager to a leader. Hopefully next year he continues to get better and develops into a top 10 pick. Gutsy, looks downfield, good pocket presence, and smart. Doesn't have the biggest arm, but can make deep outs and comebacks, so I don't really have a problem with arm strength.

I like bray more than Barkley.

Smith, Wilson, Barkley then Bray. That's the top 4, but there's a pretty wide gap there..

^^Yup. Although, I think if Wilson could have made through the year unscathed the gap would be closer. However, Smith is without a doubt the best QB prospect IMO.

I think the fall of Arkansas makes the case Wilson is pretty damn good. Bray hasn't lifted his shitty team up, and Barkley has a roster than is better at every position than the team they line up against each week. Both of those are big negatives in my mind...

My observations:
1. Jones - Sucks. Seriously, I can't fathom why anyone would bother to discuss him being a 3rd round pick, let alone a first. He is Cassel. Perfect pocket he can dump it off, otherwise inaccurate and lack of pocket presence.

2. Bray - Reminds me a bit of Cutler. Strong arm. Makes some wow throws and then some real head scratching decisions. He should stay in school and work on his decision making/progressions, etc.

3. Wilson - Hard to judge this year. Apparently he's the glue that keeps them competitive. Has had some picks that remind me of Trent Green in year 1 with KC. Hard to tell if it is him or receiver making errors. For the most part he looks good, but the head injuries leave you with a sour stomach.

4. Barkley - Looks like a typical USC QB when playing most competition - good command of a talented team, accurate, decent (not great by any stretch) arm, good on rollouts. But against Stanford's pressure, he couldn't make much happen.

so which d-bag is Bray?

Raperburger (yes)
Cutler (yes...shit what have we done)
Leaf (no)

I wouldn't draft Jones, surprised by the Murray love

there is something missing with him i can't put my finger on...

Consistency.

Why do you keep calling him Lance?

Faster to spell out his 5 letter nickname than his 6 letter name? :shrug:

What the !@#$ does Tyler Wilson have to do for anyone to consider the possibility that he's overrated?

People are honestly still taking this kid ahead of Bray? He's nothing but a system QB. Last week was another one of those weeks where he racked up garbage-time stats and had his only good play in a ball he threw about 3 yards downfield on a swing pass that his WR then outran guys to get the corner and score.

This is just crazy sauce. Folks - Tyler Wilson just isn't very good.

I'll just re-state my rankings from the Walter Football thread:

Geno

Bray
Barkley
Murray

Wilson

Thomas
Manuel
Glennon

Jones
Rest of the chaff...

Size.

Murray's just a little too small to be a true 'pro-style' Quarterback. And I know that people love to point to Brees as proof that small QBs can excel, but c'mon, Brees is a God. He's the exception that proves the rule.

Murray isn't Brees - and this is from someone that's higher on Murray than most. That said, he does so many of the things a smart QB does. He's very polished, very intelligent and a good leader. If you could take his technique and give it to Bray, you'd have a better prospect than Stafford was.

Murray's height and body type just don't lend themselves to being an elite QB. He could be an outlier, but it's unlikely. For every Brees there are a dozen McCoys (or soon, Russell Wilson's - c'mon fellas, the kid isn't good). Now Murrays not quite that small, but with an arm that ranks as just slightly above average and similar athleticism (though it's better than people thing), his margin for error is very slim.

I think he can be a winning QB in this league, but he won't be an elite one. I see a ton of Andy Dalton in him, to be honest.

I'm just going to think out loud on my comparisons here:

Geno -- Aaron Rodgers. Can move if he needs to, doesn't look to. Not the polished passer that Rodgers was coming out of school, but very close. And Rodgers sat for a bit before he was this Rodgers. Yes, I think Smith can be this good.

Bray -- Stafford.
Barkley -- Schaub
Murray -- Dalton

Wilson -- Locker

Thomas -- An extremely raw Big Ben. Maybe some combo of Ben and Newton. Clearly has some speed that Ben doesn't have but is an even less polished passer than Newton. Freeman perhaps? Yeah, that seems fair - Josh Freeman with Big Ben upside. Ultimately I'll probably have him moved ahead of Wilson by next week, he's just so damn raw.

Manuel -- Newton. It's lazy, it's predictable, but it's what I see. Unfortunately the 2nd best comp I can come up with is Vick. He's really something of a hybrid of the two - not as good a thrower as Newton, not as explosive an athlete as Vick. Really, he's probably closer to Vick than he is to Newton.

Glennon -- Probably nothing, but Joe Flacco is his upside in my world.

Jones -- Kyle Boller

I hate player comparisons. Bray isn't a high character individual and has shitty judgement and that is too important at the qb position. I will revise my rankings later this week.

i made the same geno-rodgers comparison in sac's thread...i mean, it's crazy of course as rodgers is awesome...but Smith is well rounded in the same way

as for Bray, I see Cutler...the promise and the dick faced douche-lord

Yeah...Cutler's probably an extremely fair comparison for Bray.

I keep hoping that the reports on his douchelordness are inaccurate, but more and more of them keep surfacing. He really might be a dick-chugger.

I WANT TO BELIIIIEEEEVVVVEEEE!!!!!!

If Bray's not legit, this QB class starts to turn to crap in a hurry. It might just be wishful thinking on my part because I know we're not going to do what it takes for Geno and I don't love everyone else's favorite in Wilson.

And it took Barkley every ounce of strength he had for that 60 yard deep ball that he still badly underthrew despite a clean pocket. Barkley's not Cassel, but the more I see of him, the more I see an extremely limited passer.

I would be okay if we took a chance on Barkley. I think he is overhyped by talking heads, though. He throws accurately in the short and mid routes. You don't need to throw 60 yards to stretch the field either. I don't think I would trade up to acquire Barkley or Wilson. Geno is my QB-crush this year like RGIII was last year and Luck was the year before when it was assumed he would enter the draft.

Barkley is looking like matt ryan...maybe even a slightly lesser version

you can win with that, but you need to know what you're getting and be ready to scheme accordingly, and probably wait on a longer development curve

Ryan this year looks like something has clicked

Smith is far and away the best package, imo and you trade up to get him

but if we **** that up (and you know we w...), then you look at barkley, bray, and maybe X and then it is crucial that your coach/GM know one he can build around

Bray's arm is just a tick less than Stafford's...that is always tempting

Who cares about Bray's arm if he vandalizes his neighbors car when he gets drunk? Seriously, character and leadership is critical at the QB position.

Big Ben rapes chicks. Vick kills dogs. It's what studly college QB's do... :doh!:

I know you have to be mindful of character, but it would be tough to really gauge a kid for getting drunk and doing stupid shit in college.


I mean, I know none of you angels did anything like that.

I know he had a bad game tonight against Bama, which, who doesn't, but Bray is really intriguing to me.

I'm not sure but that he doesn't have the highest upside of any QB this year. He has Stafford type arm strength, big tall wr, pretty good footwork and has worked on his accuracy.

Not sold on any of the prospects yet, but we have to take a chance on one.

I couldn't agree more. I do not think any QB drafted in 2013 will end up being "The Franchise" which we all know is what the Chiefs need. I do like Murray though.

Murray and Barkley fell hard today in my books. Landry Jones is not worth mentioning in my top ten.

My top 3 would be

1. Geno Smith - I think he is the clear cut number 1
2. Matt Barkley - Decent different between him and Geno IMO, but slightly better than wilson
3. Tyler Wilson - Not too far behind Barkley.

Geno
Barkley/Wilson(Wilson has better arm, Barkley better decision making IMO.)
Bray (physical talent, good game last week)
Murray

My revised top five would be as follows:
1) Geno Smith
2) Tyler Wilson
3) Matt Barkley
4) AJ McCarron
5) Logan Thomas

At this point, I would put McCarron, Barkley and Wilson all in the same ballpark. Wilson has the most upside, Barkley the least. Wilson is the least polished, Barkley the most. McCarron has more upside, but is less polished than Barkley.

Tyler Wilson is overhyped. Bobby Petrino coached QB's often are overhyped. He has had a bad season without Petrino. You should move Wilson way down your board.

1. Geno
2. Wilson
3. Nassib
4. Barkley
5. Murray
6. McCarron
7. Bray

I just got a chance to watch some Zac Dysert (against Ohio State) and man - that kid has game. Updated List:

1. Geno Smith
2. Tyler Wilson
3. Zac Dysert
4. Ryan Nassib
5. AJ McCarron
6. Aaron Murray
7. Matt Barkley
8. Logan Thomas
9. Mike Glennon
10. EJ Manuel
11. Landry Jones
12. Tyler Bray

It strikes me that this class is unbelievably TALENTED and DEEP. You may not have a Luck or Elway type prospect, but you definitely have a ton of toolsy players.

Interested on why you have Bray below Thomas. That tat really bother you that much? ;)

Its the vandalism that bothers me. Poor judgement.

That is an issue for me as well. I wish I could interview him.

**** all the Glennon dumbasses who have him as a top 4 QB in this draft.

Ostrich neck won't even sniff the 3rd round.

Good to see someone here acknowledge Nassib.
You people who make top 10 lists and leave him out are crazy.
Like Sac said he hung with Barkley and last time they played he outplayed Smith.
My prediction Nassib will be the 2nd best qb from this class.
I have watched him up close for years and he is ready.
Runs NO style offense that his team changed to 2 weeks before opener.
Has a better arm right now than any Chief's qb and that includes Stanzi and trick shot boy.
Often times this year I have told my wife if Nassib were starting right now for the Chief's we would have a better record.
Don't be surprised if he out plays Smith in their bowl game.
SU defense may not be great but WV's is horrible.
That is why I like Smith #1. Even the playing field with Smith not having to make up for a horrific defense and he will dominate.

Wow. Just checked out the Nassib kid.

Pretty impressive release, and quick decision making skills. Ball arrives fast and on a line, too.

I can definitely see Drew Brees in him.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/JKJiruGcgFw" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

And now the Nassib bandwagoners begin. Just remember, I started this thing bitches!!!!

ROFL

If Geno Smith doesn't fall into our laps, I am all about taking a shot on Dysert and/or Nassib.

sorter, who's that in your Av and Sig?

Awww, you started the Nassib bandwagon. That's cute.

-- Sincerely, Geno Smith bandwagon co-pilot.

Updated for the end of the regular season:

Geno

Wilson
Bray

Murray
Barkley
Nassib

Jones
Glennon
Manuel

Mine

1. Geno Smith
2. Bray
3. Wilson
4. Barkley

the rest are fodder

Curious DJ, what made you like Wilson more?

Build and tools.

The more I've watched him, the more impressed I've been with his physical skill-set. I still don't think he's a good decisionmaker and I still think his arm is worse than Smith's and Brays.

But I think he's a durable guy that should probably be able to take a pounding at this level and keep going out there. I think he's a safer pick than Bray in that he does appear to have a little more polish and I don't worry about him getting broken in half (Bray's build worries me).

I still prefer Bray's upside, but I think Wilson's a very safe pick. And I've tried to split the difference between where I was earlier when I was saying his stats were all a product of Petrino's system. I think it's fair to say his struggles this year were largely a product of John L. Smith's !@#$up.

So if Petrino is still at Arky this year, Wilson is probably putting up #s on par with Geno's, at which case I have to sit there and just go on their respective skill-sets. I saw enough in Wilson's toolbox that I've moved him up.

Wilson IMO upside is Warner/Green, but "durability" with a concussion on his medical resume isn't a ringing endorsement added with the punishment he's already taken. Bray's build is very similar to Brady's and Bradford's at the same stage so their is room to grow.

I guess you all are convinced Bray will magically grow up when he enters the NFL?

Marino did, and if Bray doesn't then it's time to try again. if for some reason KC doesn't draft Geno you got to try again.

I just look at that behavior and I think: "I wouldn't follow that guy." That's the only reason he is at the bottom of my list. And he has wonky mechanics, which would be difficult to repeat and master - which leads directly to his inconsistency. But all that is completely secondary to his failure as a leader.

As I said many times before it's up to him if he wants to get serious, his inconsistency is directly related to in having a receiving corps that has stone hands.

I was referring to the consistency with the accuracy of his passes. Not his statistics.

When I've watched Bray, he hasn't been accurate at all.

I can't help but think he has some Ryan Leaf in him.

See when I've watched him he's been pinpoint accurate with his WRs dropping perfect passes thrown right on the numbers or right in their hands.

I just haven't seen that.

tw probably just misunderstood his dad
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Magically? No. But the thing about 'growing up' is that it tends to happen as you age.

Bray has some maturing to do, no question. But you know what - it's happened before and it will happen again. If it happens with Bray and if he's able to get his footwork ironed out, he has the best set of physical tools in the draft.

Bray's problem is his feet and his maturity. He's not gunshy, he's not jittery, he's just very very inconsistent with his feet.

Ultimately that worries me more than his maturity. Bigger assholes than Bray have learned to straighten up and fly right. For some reason bad feet appear to be the toughest thing for QBs to fix, especially really bad feet.

That's how I view it. Although Bray would have a huge asterisk because of the off-field/leadership issues.

I have Bray that high as well, but I don't think GM's will overlook his past.

Mike Glennon FTMFW!

/Mel Kiper

I highly doubt he declares, but if he does then I can see David Fales shooting up boards and possibly be the 2nd QB off the board. The guy is impressive.

McShay is a clueless moron and called him a priority UDFA today. These guys suck until the NFL starts feeding them info. He's a 2nd rounder at worst if he's above 6'2. He's listed as 6'3 but that doesn't seem to be accurate.

Really? I just turned on his snaps vs. Stanford. Nice pocket presence and made an accurate throw on the run so far.

I like bray over Smith. I've tried to like Smith as our savior. But I can't. Bray is the only qb in this draft that I feel to be a sure thing.

Yeah I really think so. No one really jumps out at me behind Geno. I like Wilson but that second tier is all lumped together to me. Depends on what teams are looking for.

But everytime I've watched Fales he has impressed me with his pocket presence, accuracy, and ability to get through his progressions when necessary. He makes smart decisions and is playing with crap around him, but elevating their play tremendously.

They almost beat Stanford on the road for ffs.

I'm almost looking for something negative at this point since it blows my mind how this guy ended up at San Jose State but I come away impressed everytime I watch him. I'd say his size and arm strength are his weaknesses but I also believe both are more than adequate for the NFL level. He was great last night in their bowl game.

I think I'm ready to move him ahead of Wilson as my 2nd favorite draft eligible QB.

Watching Fales in the Stanford game and here are some of my takeaways:
+ He works his progressions quickly.
+ He drives the ball well to the outside in the short passing game.
+ He has good pocket presence and is elusive in the pocket
- His pre-snap reads are not good and he fails to account for the safety during his progressions at times.
- He lacks the ability to drive the ball on intermediate routes.
- Overall he doesn't have an NFL arm. Anything over ~25 yards is floating.
- His accuracy is inconsistent. His wide receivers wound up having to make a lot of adjustments and he tends to throw behind them.
- He seems to have a ball pat that slows down his release.
He is an awfully short 6'3" if you ask me and an awfully skinny 220.

Just my take after watching the one youtube.

Please go **** and then kill yourself
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Bray is a sure thing? ROFL

After seeing Wilson's success this year I wouldn't mind Tajh Boyd in the third round.

Shaky 2nd half of the season + poor bowl game + not participating (so far) at senior bowl = big dip in Geno's stock.

It may rebound by April, but I'd suspect he falls behind a bit. Glennon and/or Wilson will show well in Mobile and jump up the board.

I like Bray, but he's the biggest boom or bust prospect in this draft class.

Between Bray and Logan Thomas...

He'd better play in the Senior Bowl.

The last image in GM's minds cannot be him pouting on the sideline in Yankee Stadium.

If he wants to be the first pick, he needs to go out and perform credibly in the Senior Bowl.

So what does Glennon's bowl game do to him? Or his games against Virginia or other ACC teams?