A Broncos blogger's take on the Chiefs
 

http://www.itsalloverfatman.com/bron...as-city-chiefs

Beware the Kansas City Chiefs
Ted Bartlett Sep 20, 2013 3:30 PM

Happy Friday, friends. I still haven’t had the four hours or so necessary to watch the All-22 of the Broncos-Giants game, and then write an article on it. I’m planning to do that tomorrow, so check the site on a Saturday. (I know you all have the capability.) I actually planned to watch the film last night, but I got caught up watching the Chiefs-Eagles game instead.

You’re not going to like this, but I thought it was time that we all came to the realization that the Chiefs are legitimate. Briefly, today, I’ll share some thoughts on this most regrettable of topics.

For Kansas City, it all starts with their ability to play defense, specifically man-to-man coverage on defense. They have two above-average man corners in Brandon Flowers and Sean Smith, and they also have safety Eric Berry, who’s proving to be very capable at covering TEs man-to-man.

When you can play man coverage (like the Broncos can, as well), you get more options tactically than you’d have if your guys could only hold up in zone. If you can play 5-on-5, with one high safety, you’re left with a free guy, to either use as an extra rusher, or as a robber type of player in coverage.

What’s maybe even more impressive about the Chiefs is that they’re getting dominant play off both edges (Justin Houston and Tamba Hali) and on the nose, with the vastly improved Dontari Poe. This Chiefs team can really generate some pressure on the QB, and that dovetails nicely with being able to lock down good receivers outside.

I saw some comments in the Lard today saying that the Chiefs looked like an average team. I don’t agree with that. As I watched them, I thought they looked a good deal like the 2011 49ers, and that team probably should have been in the Super Bowl.

Alex Smith has been doing an excellent job of managing the game, and the Chiefs have zero turnovers through three games. At this point, nobody can say that Smith is a fluke when it comes to protecting the football. In 2011, his interception rate was 1.1%, which led the NFL. In 2012, it was 2.3%, which tied with Matt Ryan for tenth. This year, obviously, it’s zero. He is good at not throwing the ball to the other team.

Smith isn’t really a big play guy, but with the defense Kansas City has, he doesn’t have to be. He can matriculate the ball down the field, and do well enough by getting the ball to the open guy short. He’s also added 115 rushing yards in three games, which is a good amount for a QB.

There’s a way to win in the NFL, by playing good defense (particularly against the pass), and by winning the turnover battle. That’s what the 49ers did the last couple years, and that’s what this year’s Chiefs team is doing.

I said in an email to the other IAOFM guys yesterday that the Chiefs were probably destined to regress to the mean on turnovers, but the more I think about it, the less I think they will. Smith is huge in that regard, as mentioned, but it’s notable that the team has only even fumbled the ball once in three games. (That was credited to Smith.)

Recovering fumbles is random, and highly dependent on luck, but not fumbling the ball isn’t random. It’s a skill, and a discipline, and a coaching priority. So far, it looks like this is another skill that the Chiefs have going for them.

I know what some of you are thinking - they haven't played anybody yet! How do you know? Is it fully clear yet who is a good team and who's a bad team? I'll grant you that Jacksonville is in rough shape this year. Dallas, though, has the talent to compete with anybody in the NFL. The fact that KC's corners mostly won against Dallas's WRs is compelling evidence of the quality of the Chiefs defense. As for Philadelphia, they have pretty good offensive talent too, and their scheme makes that talent a step better. (Admittedly, their defense isn't good.)

I don’t necessarily think that the Chiefs are ready to win a Super Bowl this year, but I do think they’ll give anybody they play a hard time on any given Sunday. To beat their defense, you have to run the ball well, and beat up on their nickel CB with good play from the slot. Philly got them for 260 yards rushing, and 9.3 yards per carry, and it's clear that the Chiefs can still be run on.

To beat their offense, it’s helpful to bottle up the running game, and to keep Smith in long yardage situations. If you let him get to 3rd-and-4 very often, he’s going to beat you. Over the long run of a game, Smith makes up for not being great at drilling the 20-yard deep out by almost always finding the right receiver on 3rd-and-4, and almost always putting the short throw right where it needs to be.

I would say that the Chiefs are probably the second-most impressive team I’ve seen in the AFC so far this season. It’s a credit to Andy Reid, and the smart moves they made, like keeping LT Branden Albert, signing Sean Smith and DE Mike DeVito, trading for Alex Smith, and picking up Donnie Avery (who has skills) off the scrap heap. I think they may have erred in taking RT Eric Fisher first overall (I thought the best players in the class were DT Star Lotulelei and OLB Jarvis Jones), but Fisher is still likely going to be a good player.

It’s early, but we should watch out for the Chiefs. If they can beat Houston at home in Week 7, there’s a pretty good chance we could see 8-0 Kansas City visiting Denver on November 17th (coming off a bye) to play a 9-0 Broncos team. How exciting would that be?

Playing Vick always skews the rushing yards allowed stat.

FFS...

A buddy (who is not at all a Chiefs fan) texted me this exact same thing during the game.

The one part of this blog I disagree on is the "Chiefs can be run on" bit. Sure VICK can run on us, but that's really it. I think we'll continue to dominate on rush D when playing teams that don't have a running QB.

McCoy killed us, man, with his 6- and 7-yard carries.

He's just an outstanding runner, though. Denver doesn't have that. The closest AFC power that does is Houston, and Arian Foster's on his last legs it seems.

McCoy feeds off of Vick though. I'm not saying he's talented but when a defense always has to be wary of the QB taking off.....they spend less time keying on the RB.

MJD = Jack shit
Murray = Jack shit

IAOFM is a remarkably high quality blog as these things go. They don't do homer bullshit and they will provide some nice Football 101 type articles. I've got them on my FB feed.

Yeah, he has a legitimate understanding of our strengths and weaknesses- particularly on defense.

I was impressed after reading.

They seemed to sell out on hitting Vick and disrupting his rhythm in the passing game. They can do the same thing with Peyton, and he's not any threat to break out on long runs. The risk there is the receiver core, but as fast as Hali, Houston and Poe (and DJ and Berry and the DBs) can get into the backfield, that could be a challenge, too.

What can't happen is Manning standing like a statue behind a wall of blockers scanning the field for 5 seconds without so much as a blade of grass staining his jersey.

The flip side is that their defense is also very good, and so far this season our offense doesn't look very reliable. Our defense stopping Denver likely still results in them scoring 24+ points. Their defense stopping us probably means 10 at this point.

I've never wanted the Raiders to win so much in my life.

Yep. As the article kind of alludes to, we're in good shape to beat up on average teams and win a lot of games. However, at some point, you do have to put up some points.

I hate to say it, but we're kind of seeing a form of Martyball. If it's a stepping stone to respectability and being competitive, I'm all for it. I do hope that a boring, ball control offense isn't our MO long-term though.

I don't think it's intentional Martyball. I think it just looks like Martyball because of a failure to execute.

Great write-up until the end. Zero chance of us going 8-0.

Exactly this. Made worse by the injuried TE's.

Geeeeee.


Ill get crushed for beating my chest here, and im not really, but that's the exact thing that I said that bringing in Sutton, and Alex Smith was going to do for the chiefs. They were shaping up to be exactly like them.

And they are. id even wager at this point of the season, this defense looks a HELL of a lot better than sf's at that same point.