Mellinger:Even by playing it safe, there are no sure things in the NFL Draft
 

Even by playing it safe, there are no sure things in the NFL Draft
By SAM MELLINGER
The Kansas City Star
They say there is no surer commodity in the NFL Draft than a premiere left tackle, so by that logic the Chiefs are in a terrific position to make the first overall pick Thursday. You know the parameters by now. Many scouts believe Luke Joeckel and Eric Fisher will be among the NFL’s best five or so left tackles fairly soon.

If you can’t have Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III at the top of the draft, a premiere left tackle is a fine consolation.

There’s just one catch: left tackles aren’t the sure thing they’re often made out to be.

Or, to put it more precisely: they are a sure thing only in the relative terms of the educated guesswork of the NFL Draft.

As fun as it is to make grand declarations about the draft — and you’ve been hearing them for months — it’s worth remembering that the people making those grand declarations are just guessing. That’s all.

Consider that of the eight left tackles taken with top five picks in the last decade, only three have made Pro Bowls. So you might find an anchor like Jake Long (first overall in 2008 and a Pro Bowler his first four seasons), but you also might waste time and money on a bust like Jason Smith (second overall in 2009 and now a backup with his third team).

There are no sure things, in other words, no matter how hard we pretend otherwise.

Scott *****’s personal style aside, he’d probably still be in charge of the Chiefs if he drafted better. The draft record in Green Bay is the biggest reason John Dorsey is now the general manager.

The Chiefs have fallen behind the last four years. Nobody in football disagrees with that. In the 2008 draft, the Chiefs got Branden Albert, Brandon Flowers, Jamaal Charles and Brandon Carr. But since then, their best players are Eric Berry, Justin Houston and … Kendrick Lewis? Javier Arenas? Ryan Succop?

Meanwhile, the Packers have drafted better than anyone else in the NFL during the last decade or so, but even replacing ***** with Dorsey isn’t the sure thing it has been labeled by some.

The Packers’ last two classes have yet to produce a regular starter (though 2011 second-rounder Randall Cobb has made a nice impact as a receiver and returner). They could’ve used a running back last year, but selected defensive end Nick Perry three spots ahead of Doug Martin, who rushed for 1,454 yards as a rookie. This is all nitpicking. You could do this with any team.

The point here is that as the NFL Draft has morphed from administrative function to enormous three-day television event — more people watched last year’s first round than the NBA Western Conference finals — there’s been a tendency by many to overreact and oversell.

The draft is critical, no question, as much in the NFL as in Major League Baseball. But Dorsey doesn’t have a secret, and he’ll be the first to admit it. He works hard and plays the percentages. It’s not magic, and he’s mostly working with the scouts and football operations folks who were with the Chiefs when he was hired.

So the overreaction comes when we try to instantly decide winners and losers. Remember the joy around Kansas City when Glenn Dorsey was supposed to be the best player in the 2008 draft? The overselling comes when we try to convince each other we know it was a good pick or a bad pick. Taking stands and arguing them into the barstool is part of sports’ charm, but nothing turns guessers into experts like the NFL Draft.

There is an inside joke among many who work inside the NFL that picks up this time of year. You will hear draftniks talk about players rising up or falling down boards, sometimes in the wake of news about a past injury or 40-time that the people making the actual decisions already know.

This information is leaked to someone in the media, always with an agenda of some sort, so that the guessers’ ranking of a player “rises” or “falls” closer to where the NFL consensus had him the whole time.

What’s really happening is the guessers are catching up with the teams making the real picks. And those teams making the real picks are guessing, too. This is a world without sure things — including top left tackles.

KC reporters are obviously bored.

It looks like Teicher just copied and pasted Mellinger

Well these 2 one who sucks the peniss are on a roll :)

LMAO

I'm waiting for a Covitz article entitled "Sometimes, draft picks disappoint and leave franchises in ruin."

ts;dr

What a worthless article! As for the guessing, its not such a mystery really. Having worked 2 NFL Drafts with 3 agents, 2 being considered easily within the top 5 of most powerful agents in the business, I'll at least say that their projected boards were 75% spot on in picking where and when guys go, with most of the misses being in the later rounds when teams will take a flyer on a guy. They obviously get feedback from all the teams, and share info some between agents, but that back channel chatter goes both ways.

There are no sure things in the NFL draft at all. Doesn't matter what position it is. The only thing about calling your shots is so you can say I told you so later or I was the first to call it... like anyone gives a shit. If you piss into the wind eventually you'll hit the ground, but you'll come out on the losing end of it more times than not.

Is Andrew Luck a sure thing? Probably.

Is Robert Griffin? With multiple knee injuries, it's a fifty fifty chance right now at best. Not everyone is Adrian Peterson, more times than not a severe knee injury means that person is never the same.

Eric Berry was considered the can't miss safety. Knee injury from punk ass bitch Stevie Johnson (the fact that he's called Stevie Johnson instead of Steve makes me wanna beat the shit out of him even more), but Berry hasn't been the same.

I don't care who we take at this point, because we're at the whim of John Dorsey and Baby Jack. It doesn't matter who we take because half of the top 10 players, people say suck, and the other half we don't have a need at the position.

WHAT IS THIS SHIT

God forbid we hear any thoughts or opinions on what they should do.

When does the new guy start?

Seriously. We need to get the Talking Can a bat signal or something.

Truer words have never been written. Witness it every day on this site.

Started out with a great premise only to nosedive into banality. The readership of the Star deserves a thorough explanation of the lack of impact that top-10 LTs have, not a one-off quip.

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so, from that I think I got that Dorsey might be a better guesser than Pioli but that is only a guess

They are only writing this stuff because of the quality or lack of quality in this draft.

If this were last year and the Chiefs were picking #1 overall, it would be all rainbows and sunshine.

They mentioned on the radio this morning that Bill Polian would only grade about 15 guys as legit 1st rounders this year.....there are 32 teams.....