I expect Chase Daniel to start.

**** Alex Smith.

You are missing the point, Luck was a rookie regardless if he his naturally talented as a QB. A Vet should 'always' initially be making more plays and better decisions in the get go and why can't Geno do the same as Luck is keg's point.

Let me pose an interesting question.

If we traded the same amount of compensation for a player like Matt Ryan, would he get an evaluation/developmental year?

Dude, I'm with you !!! Brees v.II:thumb:

Pretty sure his point had to do with Alex Smith being a previous first overall pick.

Vaguely gay? As opposed to obviously gay like you? You're a strange and pointless presence, dudette. Pass or throw, it's the same. Why do you bother?

Freak.

Yeah, pretty sure he didn't miss the softball I laid up there.

Wait who said there should be an evaluation year?

Gotcha ya ! I didn't go back far enough in the thread and interpreted the context differently;)

Bare bones minimum for 2013 should be 9 wins.

I think that's an achievable goal if Andy Reid gets out of Alex what he thinks he will, given the compensation he gave up to get him.

Harbaugh a qb "guru" took an underachieving roster and Alex smith to the NFC championship in 1 year, then to a SB in year 2.

With Andy Reid being a qb guru I don't see why he can't get at least the results from smith harbaugh did if not better in that his system is more geared toward an aerial attack and not ground and pound.

So yeah, I think 8-9 wins is a good jumping off point

Why would you expect Chase Daniel to start? Exactly...

by adminFebruary 27, 2013

It didn't take Andy Reid very long to decide on his quarterback situation and he settled on San Francisco pivot Alex Smith.

Reports today say Smith will be traded to the Kansas City Chiefs when the trade period opens in March.

A few moments after the announcements, online sportsbook BOVADA had posted odds on how many passing yards and TDs he would have in the 2013 season.

It also opened up debate on who the Chiefs would take with the No. 1 pick in the draft, since they clearly do not need a QB any longer.

Check out the Alex Smith prop odds below.

Alex Smith - Total Passing Yards in the 2013 Regular Season******

Over/Under *************************** 3000**************************************************

Alex Smith - Total TD Passes in the 2013 Regular Season***********

Over/Under *************************** 18½

Alex Smith - Total Interceptions in the 2013 Regular Season*********

Over/Under******************************* 10.5

Will the Chiefs select Luke Joeckel 1st Overall in the 2013 Draft?**

Yes***************************************** -300*****

No******************************************* +200***

*

winning 9 games isnt totally insane........if we keep albert and dont get too many injuries....i thought we shouldve won 9 games last season TBH

i just dont see us ever getting to the promised land this way

hopefully i am wrong

i wouldnt be shocked....especially if we trade albert

So another question, I've seen some say red an Dorsey won't hesitate to move on from smith if he sucks. What does he have to do next year for them to move on?

I see him getting at least 2 years and likely a third.

Kiper just said Jordan has the most upside and called him the next Aldon Smith.

While Mcshay says Ansah has the biggest upside and called him the next J Pierre Paul.

Mcshay has Patterson as the biggest risk because he cant run routes.

Kiper has Brandon Williams as the best under the radar player.

Mcshay has Galvin Escobar as the next Greg Olsen.

I think if he makes the playoffs year one, he gets a big extension and they committ to him...if he misses the playoffs in 2013 and starts off 2014 without fireworks, they will move on by midseason to Chase Daniels.

Reid signed Vick to a 100 million dollar contract and benched him a year and a half later.

They obviously don't care about stats with Alex, they care about wins and losses.

If he doesn't win, they aren't gonna continue to pay him big money.

Thats why we need to take Manuel in the second round if we get that pick back somehow.

not sure about that, there is only 2 years left on his contract so if he sucks in 2013, maybe they have to think long and hard before re-doing his contract

gonna be hard to determine suck with him tho, since his avg. numbers are not all that great.....

I guess it all depends on what they think of Daniels, how much rope they give him.......but daniels is a complete mystery right?

in any case i think a better way to look at it might be:

what does he have to do to earn a new contract

Get us a playoff win realistically!!

I can see them extending Alex Smith before he even plays a down in KC because he has around 20 million in cap dollars on the books the next two years and iirc it's all guaranteed after a certain date.

I'm prepared for the worst here.

5 years 60 million in a back loaded deal with 25-30 guaranteed.

Big bonus in third year.

I expect status quo from a chicken shit franchise

I don't see them throwing him out after 1 year, unless he is god awful. I think he will play out his contract here for sure, after that who knows

They traded 2 second round picks for him. They are gonna invest in him.

Like it or not Alex Smith is the QB for awhile now.

probably....we just have to hope the chiefs dont prematurely spooge their pants by signing him to a long term deal before he proves himself

If he has the year I think he's capable of having under Reid this year I would have no problem extending him and getting that number down going forward, but he's got to prove it in Reid's system first.

youre more optimistic than me.......which is a good thing!

2 things are working for us.

1) TBG said they aren't talking new contract
2) Alex Smith said he feels he should have to earn a new deal.

If they do extend him...that's bad business.

Like, Matt Cassel/Ryan Fitzpatrick bad.

Probably too much tbh, but I think Alex smith with his accuracy and offensive capacitance is a perfect fit and will thrive in Reid's system. I'm actually a lot more worried about the ol at this point than I am smith

The O line will be fine if Albert is not traded!!

anybody else remember all of the success we had with first round bookend tackles victor riley and john tait? yeah, me either.

Thats why we sign Albert long term. We save cash too

Trade back and pick up Jordan or Ansah!!

Like I said I'm a little more worried about Reid's mismanagement of the ol than the qb

If we aren't gonna take a qb, and we aren't, then we should seriously trade back as many times as we can to stockpile as many first and second rounders this year and next as we possibly can.

In Vegas, you have to bet 3 dollars to win 1 if you bet that we are gonna take Joeckel at 1.

You get 2 for every dollar you bet that we are gonna take anything but Joeckel at 1.

Sad to say it, but Joeckel is gonna be the pick. Vegas knows.

Wanna make a bet.

They are trying to trade back, and also trying to acquire more picks by trading Albert. Sounds like they have the same plan as you.

Vegas is all but guaranteeing Joeck to be our pick....if you want to make a bet with me at the same odds, I'm open for business.

If you trade Albert I don't think you trade back an run the risk of missing out on a lt. IMO, it's one or te other at this point.

All right. Im all in that Joeckel will not be the pick

Can I bankroll u

hell, you just giving away money here? I'm down.

Good night gentleman

I honestly believe we will trade back and take Jordan or Ansah..

This is a good year for LTs, you don't need to take one with 1.1. I think they will do both and get as many picks as possible if they get the chance. This is a golden opportunity for a new head coach. A team that already has a bunch of Pro Bowlers and a way to get a bunch of extra draft picks. This draft is not strong at the top, but is deep in the late first and second rounds.

All right so what are we gonna wager for this bet?

Loser≈bottom

When we took Berry he was 9/4...OL was 1/3

7-9 first year. 9-7 out in the first round following.

Top 15 QB.

3500 yards. 20 TD. 10-15 INT. 8-8 to 11-5 seasons.

There are 3 LTs worth a shit in this draft. If we do in fact trade Albert we have to come out if this thing with one of them or next year could get pretty ugly. Teams that didnt sign a lt in free agency like the chargers are likely looking to move up to get one.

And while it isn't a bad thing to stockpile picks, they can also be overvalued

Yes, which proves my point that we don't need to pick OT at 1.1. We can move down a few picks and still get one of the three while acquiring draft picks. You aren't thinking big picture.

And you are thinking things are black and white. If we trade down to 8 which everyone is expected, the 3 could be gone by the time we pick with the lions eagles needed LTs and a team could ten jump ahead of us to take the last one.


So what's the big picture if you trade down, trade away your lt, and miss out on one there?

Reid will probably look to keep his trading streak alive with Belichick and trade 1.8 to the Patriots for Ryan Mallett.

That's what SHOULD be in contention - can Alex Smith successfully make the transition from game manager to running Reid's pass-happy offense, yet most of the comments are suggesting the Smith will pass for 190 yards a game, or throw 5 times a half like Cassel.

What exactly are we measuring when we discuss YPA?

That, to me, is a metric for measuring efficiency.
I already know Alex Smith has been highly efficient in the last two seasons.
Efficient doesn't equal good.

What does his YPC look like, and how does that compare to others?

2001 was not a rebuilding year in the vein of 2009. It was a lot closer to what it looks like this year is shaping up to be. And with a new system being installed, it took Trent Green (who already knew the system) a year to get things going. I think it's reasonable to hope for the best in year 1 with Alex Smith but judge him on the results of year 2.

heh sounds about right

We haven't discussed this and it's a huge negative.

2012 he didn't qualify for the rankings, but he hit 11.4 YPC, which would have been 23rd.

2011 he was 11.5, or 24th.

http://www.pro-football-reference.co...12/passing.htm

Cassel not surprisingly was 31st and 27th. :LOL:

Oh, Josh Freeman was 2nd. o:-)

You kinda get what you pay for. Green cost the #12 with a 5th round kick back. Cassel is about what you get for a second. Smith should be better, but not by much.

Edit:My bad #12

Call a sportsbook if you want to lose the farm.
Vegas knows

35th in sack percentage in 2012
29th in 2011.

LMAO

You know. We still have the 1st pick in the draft. And Geno hasn't been claimed by any other team yet.

I might be one of the very few, but I still think he is a possibility. Even with the addition of Alex Smith and Chase Daniel.

Guys, I wasn't super stoked about the Alex pick-up either, but he's way better than Matt Cassel. Cassel, the last two years, has been the worst NFL QB that I've ever seen. Smith is probably like the 15th or so best QB in the NFL.

He's middle of the road. He's not great, and he doesn't suck. NO, that's not good enough, probably to win Super Bowls, which is why it's appropriate to not be excited about him.


Calling him Matt Cassel, however, is just silly. Cassel's stats are inflated by 2008 and 2010. He's been horrible since. Smith's numbers get better more recently. One is clearly ascending, one clearly descended. They're not the same guy at all.

Yeah, Matt missed 1 game a season on average. Smith's is..I don't know how the math to seperate injury from benching.

Cant Quote but to earlier post. Alex 11.4 YPC

Peyton Manning, Romo, Shaub, Stafford and Roethlesburger(sp) were 11.5. I don't see how this is such a huge negative. I just don't feel YPC is really a good way to judge a QB due to different styles of play.

Eh they are the same, they both rely on the run game and take that away and force them to pass and they are in deep shit.

Matt Cassel has had two good seasons.

Alex Smith has had 1.5 good seasons.

Yay!

Am looking forward to duck season next year.

**** off.

All this asshole does is throw the ball short and that's why his YPC is low.

Alex Smiths numbers are inflated by the 2011 season and half of 2012. He was horrible before that. Really they are pretty much the same guy.

I don't see him as ascending.

He has gotten coaching and playcalling to help him avoid failure.

That is how Cassel "succeeded" in '08 and '10.

To be fair not many QB's are successful without good coaching. Look at all your top QB's and look at the coaches. Flacco, Manning, Manning, Rodgers, Brees(look what happens with poor coaches), Wilson, Kaepernick, Brady all have good coaches.

:facepalm: The Chiefs are in the same division as the Peyton Manning-led team that just earned home field advantage this past season and you're going to call it a complete and total failure if a 2-14 team doesn't make the playoffs? I think playoffs is a reasonable goal for this team, but falling just short should be characterized as a disappointment, not a complete and total failure. Going 2-14 again would be a complete and total failure.

I do not consider 7 to 8 wins a "success" unless those 7-8 wins are against playoff teams. Having the last place schedule will inflate this year's performance as it did in 2010.

I expect Smith to have a "good" year by his standards and we will win maybe even 9 or 10, but cannot beat playoff caliber teams.

We have Cassel back in 2010. We will get some easy wins with AS and look bad against good teams because he, likewise, has a hard time coming back from a scoring deficit.

End of day, mediocrity with no chance for the brass ring. We'll do just good enough to have a lousy draft pick. We'll beat the Raiders twice next year and then grieve when they get the #1 pick overall in 2014 and get the best QB, leading us to a very dark place for a generation.

If you stack Geno expectations vs. AS expectations, I think you get one or two more wins maybe with AS this year, but Geno would give the hope of developing into elite/top 10 status.

With Alex, what you see is what you get. Even his greatest fans admit the same. There is no reason to believe that an 8 year veteran will transform magically into a star. Yeah, Gannon did somewhat, but Gannon had better tools than AS, and less opportunity to shine before he was given the ball.

If we traded the exact same compensation for one of the following quarterbacks, wouldn't a playoff birth be EXPECTED?

Matt Ryan
Tom Brady
Eli Manning
Peyton Manning
Joe Flacco
Ben Rothlisberger
Drew Brees
Colin Kaepernick
RG3
Luck
Russel Wilson
Andy Dalton
Aaron Rodgers
Phillip Rivers

There is really no such thing as a last place schedule anymore.

Here is our schedule:

2013 Kansas City Chiefs Opponents

Home Denver, Oakland, San Diego, Houston, Indianapolis, Dallas, N.Y. Giants,
Cleveland

Away Denver, Oakland, San Diego, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Philadelphia,
Washington, Buffalo

It looks pretty much the same as the Broncos, Chargers, and Raiders.

Only difference is we have Cleveland and Buffalo.

If we can't win AT LEAST 9 of those games, I don't see how ANYONE can consider the trade not a failure.

The guy is 29 and will make 10 million dollars and we traded a mid first round pick worth of draft value for him.

Matt ****ing Cassel could probably win 7 of those games with Reid as his HC.