Free Agent Tracking and Comp Pick projections
 

Good evening,

I thought it might be useful to track all KC's Comp Pick Qualifying FAs signed and lost to try and project how many picks KC will receive next year. It may assist us in roster planning for the remainder of the offseason and next.

Comp Eligible Signed:
Taylor (4/80)(3rd)
Omenihu (2/16)(5th?)
Tranquill (1/5) (6th?)
Edwards (1/3)(7th?)
Cowart (1/1.08)(None)
Edwards (1/1.01)(None)
James (TBD)(None?)


Comp Eligible Losses:
Orlando Brown, JR (4/64,4th?)
JJSS (3/33, 5th?)
Wylie (3/24, 5th?)
Thornhill (3/21, 6th?)
Saunders (3/14.5,6th?)
Burton (2/6.25,7th?)
Hardman (1/6.5, 6th?)
Ronald Jones (1/1.23, None)

Re-signings:
Nick Allegretti
Derrick Nnadi
Blake Bell
Deon Bush
Justin Watson

Remaining Free Agents:
Frank Clark (Ineligible, Cut)
Carlos Dunlap (5th?)
Jerrick McKinnon (???)





IS Harris eligible as a non-tendered RFA? Anyone?

For Reference, in 2022 KC was awarded a 6th and a 7th for:
Lost: Austin Blythe, Melvin Ingram, Byron Pringle, Jarran Reid and Charvarius Ward
Signed: Justin Reid, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling


Disclaimer: I am not a comp pick expert, I just figured I would take the initiative to track. If anyone has any suggestions for improvement, they are welcome.

Comp picks are an imperfect science because of playing time and post-season accolades but the money range is somewhere in the ballpark of this:

3 >16.5m AAV
4 11.0m>16.5mAAV
5 7.5m>11.0m AAV
6 4.1m>7.5m AAV
7 2.1m<4.1m AAV

Appreciate the insight and I will definitely use this info until we get more info - as I understand from indirect sources is based on AAV minus specific bonuses ranked in the percentile of the FA class.

Yeah, that's pretty spot on. What OTC has is pretty damned close every year. They might miss the round cutoffs by a player but it's usually right around that. Also, keep in mind that a player with 10 or more accrued seasons caps at a Round 5 pick, regardless of anything else, which likely applies to a guy like Dunlap.

So the Brown deal comes right in under the 3rd pick AAV value. Does not wash out the Taylor deal for KC. Dammit.

You're thinking of it backwards, I think.

If Taylor is the highest-comp player we signed and Brown is the highest-comp player we lose, then Taylor will wash out a comp for Brown.

Then so on down the line.

You’re right. I got stuck thinking about the AAV math for a second there.

Updated with the minor transactions over the last couple of weeks. They do not appear to move the needle on anything. If I had to take a stab at what the Chiefs are likely to receive next year, as of now, it would be a 5th and two 6ths.

Feels like we have extra picks every year! Might be time to pkg some of those to target 1 or 2 impact players.

Comp picks incoming?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Bears hired former longtime Chiefs executive Ted Crews as special advisor to the President/CEO and chief administrative officer. <a href="https://t.co/hAYeFAaupf">pic.twitter.com/hAYeFAaupf</a></p>— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) <a href="https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1780635910813466825?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 17, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


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No

That's pretty crazy, Ted was the head of PR and ran all of the press conferences.

Wonder if that Brad guy is moving into his spot or if they made an external hire.

I believe we're qualifying for a 7th next year.