Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012
 

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

Win distribution after week 3:

Draft odds after week 3:

ummmmm....


D) All of the above?

Hmmm. That second one is a little lopsided for my taste. Looks like it has a pretty nasty mole, too.

FAX

Our odds of making the playoffs are lower than Cassel's odds of beating playoff teams.

Sounds about right, since he would have to beat multiple playoff teams in order for us to make the playoffs!

What are the odds that we draft a QB in the first rnd...?

Can your calculator do that...?

Calculators work on logic, and Pioli's brain is illogical.

Oh ... I get it now. Each graph is only for KC. I couldn't figure it out at first on account of all the team names on the left.

So, the most probable scenario at this point is 6 "additional" wins or 6 "total" wins?

FAX

Total wins.

I'm on the one in fifteeno for Geno wagon

Can you do San Diego if you have time? Thanks.

The pockmark factor makes any calculations unreliable.

Ouch.

FAX

I struggle with graph reading, so correct me if I'm wrong.

The odds suggest at this point that the Chiefs are most likely to draft number 6 overall?

I think it's 5. Find the nipple.

FAX

Anyone else think the hulk in milkmans sig has a beer instead of a glass of milk? It's in his left hand next to ironmans head.

League-wide playoff predictions are available here:

http://files.nfl-forecast.com/


To run the software (to get additional information):

1) Click here:

http://nfl-forecast.com/

2) Click "Launch pro-football forecast"

3. Open the down load

4. Accept terms

5. Click: Forecast -> Forecast Remainder of the Season

Yep.

It should be possible to graph San Diego wins vs tantrums using the "weeping rivers" confounding factor.

LMAO He has a tough time making his woman happy too.

Draft at five should be a spot to get a qb
Posted via Mobile Device

Perhaps its a fruit drink.

yep, right in line with what I predicted this team would do when the schedule came out. 6-10

No offense to Mr. cdcox and his amazing predictive system which is, without question, a phenomenal piece of work and a testament to his undisputed, intellectual genius. But you can forget it, fellow Chiefs fans.

For I have sought the wisdom of the All-Seeing Crystal Tittah and have been informed that I need to check the air pressure in my front left tire. But then, the All-Seeing Crystal Tittah stated that there is no freaking way the Chiefs win 6 games this season. Rather, the All-Seeing Crystal Tittah has declared that we'll either win 9 or 4. The All-Seeing Crystal Tittah could not be more specific, I'm not sure why. Maybe I fogged the old girl up again.

FAX

1 interesting thing to me is analyzing the advanced analysis for each week through the end of the year, current predictions on a game by game case has us going 11-5.

Uhhhh ... what?

FAX

Oh ... I get it. You're looking at each week ... got that part ... and it's telling you a straight win or loss for each game?

EDIT: I guess the question has to be ... what are the predictors used for each game. Strength of schedule? Past results?

I believe Mr. cdcox integrates the Vegas lines in his model. At least I think he does.

FAX

Percentage to win. We're over 50% for the next 10 of 13 games.

Okay. Not to wear this out, but based on what? What are they basing the prediction on? Is this Mr. cdcox's system you're using?

FAX

Yeah, I don't know. I opened his program and was looking at the advanced analysis. It showed sliders leaning toward one team every week. The slider was on our side for 10 of the last 13 games as of that moment. I'm sure it gets updated weekly and that will change, but as of then (and probably now) it showed us having the edge if you will to win those games.

Okay. Thanks. I'm with you now.

Yes, it definitely changes each week. All over the place, really. There are tons of variables. Everything except the "Any Given Sunday" factor.

FAX

Yeah. They should add the Muff Boudain analysis every week. That guy knows his shit!

You know, before he escaped prison (with the help of his daughter and her common-law husband, if you recall) and was lost at sea somewhere off the coast of California, they say that Muff helped write the NFL rulebook. That would certainly give him a great deal of insight and influence with his Vegas friends. Of course, all that was before he decided to leave the priesthood and turn to a life of crime.

FAX

You're reading it backward. The 0 to 100 scale represents the percent odds of the home team winning. The slider is always closer to the favorite.

I use advancednflstats to determine the game odds and those are updated weekly. Later this week, Brian Burke, author of advancednflstats.com, will publish the game odds in the NY Times blog. Those game odds will be within a couple percentage points of the game odds in the software. Both Brian and I calculate the game odds from his generic team efficiency ratings, but the way we award HFA is slightly different.

BTW, you can move the sliders to do what-if analyses.

Love it. Gonna play around with it some more tonight. Thanks for the tip. I've always admired it from afar. Much like I've always admired Muff Boudain.

I don't know Seedy. I don't see how the draft pick graph suggests we're getting "Pioli'd".

Looks to me like we're going to to pick around 5th, plus or minus 2 picks. If we pick between 3 and 7, we'll have a guaranteed shot at the 2nd-best QB in the draft IMO.

nah. Pioli will trade out of the pick or draft a DLineman.

I don't think he's gonna have a choice. The fanbase is teetering on revolt.

It's a DAILY topic of discussion on both 610 and 810 and they actually are more representative of the "average" fan than we are.

I truly hope so but I'm not holding my breath either.

I'm not either. I've just never heard the kind of consensus I'm hearing now.

Your right. It's always been a hot topic here, but it's even spilling over to the non die hards. KC wants a new QB....NOW.

Updated, I think:

Chiefs have a 52 percent chance of finishing last in the AFC West. 37.5 percent chance of finishing 3rd.

5.7 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Good chance of drafting in the top 7.

http://i.imgur.com/dvY6q.jpg

Good chance of 4-6 wins.

http://i.imgur.com/NBk7c.jpg

discussion, please

Sounds reasonable

5% chance isn't bad. At least it's not zero.

:troll:

I don't see 5 games on our schedule we can win.

It should be zero, cause this team has no chance.

Week five and its all over huh? Are you guys French?

Yes. We're currently storming the Bastille.

You spelled brilliant wrong.

This looks a lot like he's just publishing last year's results again.

More like letting a bunch of krauts roll into town and take your three women

Out look not good.

http://i.imgur.com/Ao14l.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/qCyOG.jpg


Outlook very good!

http://i.imgur.com/iuzkV.jpg


Nfl-forecast.com gives middle finger to Pioli

http://i.imgur.com/pbBcb.jpg

He doesn't care. He's right. He knows better. His way will turn things around...

Should get slightly more favorable draft choice wise after the new generic win percetanges (power ratings) get added on T or W.

Tennessee at even 11% is shocking... they've been annihilated almost every week. Without even looking I'd guess they lead the league in point differential. I believe they were the first team ever to give up over 30 points the first 5 weeks of a season.

Going into this week their generic win percentage was 48%, which is just less than average. Either their stats will start tanking (which would drop their GWP) or they will win a few games.

Unofficially, we're up to 23% chance of getting the overall #1. NO is in front of us, but I think most people think they aren't serious contenders for that position. This is shaping up nicely.

keep losing, baby.

NO is the only team in front of us?

Yep, from an odds perspective. Jacksonville is at around 15%, and Cleveland is around 10%. Everyone else is below 10%.

**** YEAH!! PBJ

We suck so good!

For once.

Cleveland, Oakland, Jacksonville need to start winning games. The others I think will manage a couple wins, Carolina, NO (should win a bunch).

this is such a tease. damn how I wish it could happen, even dreaming this organization is trying to MAKE it happen. just don't believe it will. we'll win a few and screw it up.

Best thing that could happen to this franchise what's happening now. You're not winning a SB with anything below a top 10 QB, simple as that. Not that it's the only problem with this franchise but by far the biggest.

I just ran the official numbers for this week and we are now the favorites for the #1 overall pick with a 42% chance.

Oakland and JAC play this weekend so that's a win for somebody. I would say I hope JAC wins because I think Oakland will be able to win a couple games. Hell, they have us twice. If we are going to have a terrible record it means we are giving a game or two to them so I would say JAC needs to win this game.

Cleveland not only plays us but has shown me enough to think they will steal a few. Underrated defense, QB who has looked good in a few games, and a good RB. JAC is the one I am most worried about. If we lose to OAK coming out of the by I am going to start getting excited.

You are doing Gods work.

YOu guys are forgetting one very important fact. The Chiefs don't draft QBs in the first round.

Heh, yeah I could see Chrome Dome trading off the number one pick for extra picks and picking up a scrub QB in round 3. I wouldn't be all that shocked. The board would go into a meltdown like it has never seen before.

We might be outsucked by Oakland. Al may be dead, but the Raiders are still capable of extreme levels of stupidity.

You're forgetting something. The Chiefs don't draft quarterbacks in Round 3.

Things are looking up.

http://i.imgur.com/UiYB4.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/0Gu9A.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/heLuO.jpg

We learned from last year. Made some rookie mistakes in trying to suck for a QB. Had a semi-decent QB on the roster to end the season, beat an undefeated team, and threw a Hail Mary. This year, we put Romeo in charge full time, he stopped making the players care, and we brought in Quinn.

So wer're mathematically out of the playoffs for sure now?