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Top-Ten QBs: What to Expect.
Okay, let's assume that we're #1 and we draft Geno. What does Geno end up doing for us?
Recognizing that there's some controversy about whether he's a "normal #1 pick", let's look at the quarterbacks taken in the top 10 in the draft over the past 20 years. I'm not sure whether to include the last class or two since we don't know what we've got yet, but I'll throw them in. I'm putting them in my own order of value, but feel free to rearrange. With some of the new guys, it's hard to place them right now. Having said that, we've got the following gentlemen in our group. 90th percentile Peyton Manning Donovan McNabb Steve McNair 80th percentile Eli Manning Drew Bledsoe Robert Griffin III 70th percentile Philip Rivers Matthew Stafford Matt Ryan Cam Newton 60th percentile Andrew Luck Michael Vick Carson Palmer 50th percentile Kerry Collins Trent Dilfer Alex Smith 40th percentile Sam Bradford Jake Locker Byron Leftwich 30th percentile David Carr Vince Young Tim Couch Ryan Tannehill 20th percentile Mark Sanchez Blaine Gabbert Rick Mirer 10th percentile Joey Harrington Heath Shuler Matt Leinert 0th percentile Akili Smith Jamarcus Russell Ryan Leaf So there's about a 30 percent chance that we'll get a total bust out of the deal, and another 30 percent that we'll get a game manager who is not a toad, but he's not going to carry the team. The other 40 percent looks pretty darn good, and since Geno will go #1, you hope that his odds are a little better than this. What say you, rank and file members? |
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Whoa. Whoa. Whoa. Whoa. |
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I detect some disagreement. I'm not really sure what to do with Luck at this point. The team has rebounded, but they were only bad for one season. So is he the difference, or were they sucking for Luck? I put RGIII higher primarily because he seems to have energized the fan base more. To be honest, I haven't seen Luck and haven't heard much about him. I figured he'd be one of the more controversial placements. |
What Geno or Barkley or Bray or Wilson can do for KC will be dependent in large part on the GM/HC/OC. All 4 of those guys SHOULD be the best QB in KC since Trent Green.
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No way is McNabb in the 90th percentile...and I would be willing to put Eli in his spot, based soley on his post-season play.
I think Luck can be moved up to 70th percentile, he has pretty much caught up with Cam Newton. I would swap Tannehill and Locker.....maybe. That was my first gut reaction, but neither of them have lit a fire this year. I think Geno is as good as Carson Palmer out of the box, and with the right coaching, he could move up to the 80th or 90th percentile in a few seasons. |
Yeah, don't categorize luck with palmer, bud.
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I don't get your rankings.
Where is Big Ben? Eli Manning has won two super bowls.... but is behind McNabb? |
I want bray at number one.
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One pattern that clearly emerges is that we need to draft a quarterback whose last name starts with M.
I think I rate McNabb higher than some others, but the guy produced. Great arm, great scrambler, got his team to a Super Bowl and at least three more conference championships. He got things done. |
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Do people think that Manning carries the Giants? I think it was pretty clear that McNabb carried the Eagles. |
People, the rankings don't have to be perfect. The 30/30/40 odds are about the same however you personally want to juggle things.
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Hearing the name Matt Barkley makes me want to kick an infant.
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Regardless of the details, we can see that we have about a 40 percent chance of getting a QB that will make the team significantly stronger, a 30 percent chance that he'll be an anchor, and a 30 percent chance that he'll just float along. Overall, I think those are good odds. |
Post season play is all that matters. Eli has two Super Bowl wins, like him or not. Better than McNabb by a ways, and even better than his brother.
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