Expectations and Alex Smith
 

Just curious. Inspired by the ongoing thread about "Geno fan" expectations, and I'm curious what the thinking is on the other side of the fence. What do people expect out of Alex Smith over the next, let's say, 2-5 years? Specifics, even, yardage and TDs, wins and losses, offensive rankings, etc. This is not a thread with an agenda, I'm genuinely curious what people think, so let's try to keep this from turning into snipe thread #368.

I expect the last 19 years of Chiefs football... Mediocre, no playoff wins, football. His actual numbers don't interest me one bit.

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People will literally be posting "Dammit, Cassel" and "you suck, Cassel" and "**** you, Cassel" in game threads.

He is going to get hurt.

YEAR ONE
6 career starts before going on IR.
1-5 in those starts. 900 yds., 5 TD, 8 INT.

YEAR TWO
10 career starts before going on IR.
4-6 in those starts. 1200 yds., 8 TD, 10 INT.

YEAR THREE
Crack Whore

YEAR FOUR
Dead from AIDS

In other news his wife is smoking hot.

not much

pics

I cant post pics yet.

3200 yards 19 td 11 int 60% cr

7-9

This is way too negative.

He will die slowly from cancer.

This my friends is a look into the future of our franchise:

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Rex Grossman?

Ricky Stanzi?

Stanzi hasn't even been able to make the field ... Trent Dilfer?

Alex Tanney?

Just to give mine, I expect that in 2013 Alex will play 14-15 games, complete around 64% of his passes for a bit over 3,000 yards, throw maybe 17-18 TDs against 9-10 INTs. I expect that we'll start the year trying to be pass-happy with Alex and it won't work (hence the 9-10 picks). I expect a trajectory much like when we "discovered" Priest Holmes in 2001 and began to run the offense through him as the season progressed (although I do think Trent Green was a better QB than Alex will be). Things will settle down and I expect that Jamaal Charles will have a career best in total yardage, and the Chiefs will be top 10 in rushing, while bottom 10 in passing. I expect Dwayne Bowe to be underutilized, with most of the focus on short passing to backs and slot receivers, although he'll still manage his requisite 800-1000 yards despite that. I think Donnie Avery may have a second consecutive career year, again pushing 800 yards. I expect that we'll all see Reid try to incorporate McCluster into the offense, and it still won't work. End result is 7-8 wins, with a lot of losses under 7 points (the defense is going to be pretty good), so close but not quite there for a wild card. I expect Alex Smith to get his extension after this season (if he doesn't get it before that).

Then in 2014 I expect Alex Smith to have what will be, for him, a career year. 65% passing for 3500 yards, 20 TD, 6 INT. Jamaal Charles (or a backup, he may be run into the ground by season's end) will post another career year. The passing offense's rank will rise into middle-of-the-league, while the rushing offense will remain top-5. The defense will be a bit better, giving us some victories in close games we lost in 2013. The team will win 9-10 games and make the playoffs, where they'll lose a low scoring wild card game to a team they should beat (or may have beaten during the season).

'15-'17 will be more of the same, falling somewhere between 7-9 and 11-5 every year, 3000-3500 yards annually for Alex, probably not much more than 20 TDs in any season. We'll be back to full martyball, basically, with everything centering around defense and running game, although that's obviously counter to Andy Reid's career trends. I think it's possible we win a playoff game or two. I don't think we'll be a super bowl contender, although there have been fluky wins by teams in the past, so anything's possible.

75 percent chance we see Keg's scenario.

25 percent chance Alex Smith is worse than Cassel and we LOL so hard.

The Jags are closer to a playoff berth with Gabbert than we are with A Smith.

His replacement to phase him out quickly. Will be on the roster before the end of his second season here. That should say enough, I think.

I was trying to be as optimistic as possible.

I'll take a risk here, and I will be called a "true fan," but I think, depending on the draft and barring injury, we will be:

11-5

Alex has:

65% completion
3500 yards passing
20 TDs
7 Ints

I think Charles will be a big benefactor from the switch to Reid's offense and will have over 2,000 all purpose yards.

I also think with Alex's efficiency (some would say game management) our defense will be vaulted into the top 15 in the league, perhaps top 10.

I believe we will win at least one playoff game.

If Smith is injured, then all bets are off....




Edit: I didn't see Keg's post/prediction when I made this one....

I expect a Cassel-esque performance of garbage QB play that will occasionally spike upwards to "pretty good" once Smith ends up on the hotseat.

Those spikes will save his job for about three years.

Eventually, Andy Reid will be sacked, we will have this conversation in four years about how it was damn time given his unwavering support for Smith.

He will then be replaced by somebody like John Harbaugh, who will immediately trade for the best backup in the NFL and sign him to a four year extension. Season ticket sales will skyrocket in year 1 before hitting a new low by year 4.

Four years later, Harbaugh will be axed and we'll all wonder why he never gave the backup QB he traded for any competition.

At that point, Peyton Manning should be flaming out of his first head coaching job. We'll probably hire him up. Mannig will immediately trade for the NFL's best backup QB that year and sign him to a 4-year extension. Season ticket sales will skyrocket in year 1 before hitting a new low by year 4.

Four years later, Manning will be axed and we'll all wonder why he never gave the backup QB he traded for any competition.

He will then be replaced by Dda;lkfj;alkdfalkdjf Wjepofrajf2jojafl who will immediately will trade for the NFL's best backup QB. Season ticket sales will skyrocket in year 1 before hitting a new low in year 4.

Four years later, Dda;lkfj;alkdfalkdjf Wjepofrajf2jojafl will be axed and we'll all wonder why he never gave our QB any real competition.

He is 29 and we basically gave up a first round pick for him and we are paying him 10 million dollars in 2013.

He needs to hit the ground running and play at a high level right away.

This


Mark castle jr :doh!:

Yay, we traded 2.34 and a second next year for a "known commodity," Otherwise known as a mediocre game manager of a QB.

Damn sad but true.:#

I think if you reversed the situation, Cassel was in San Francisco with Harbaugh and Alex Smith was in KC with Haley, the outcomes would have been almost exactly reversed as well.

Cassel would of looked better only to be replaced and Smith would of been destroyed.

Yep.

Trading for Alex Smith is a "win-now" move, so I expect them to win right out of the gate. And not just in the regular season - there better be some playoff wins mixed in there.

Now, that's what should happen, based on the move itself.

What I expect will happen?

Dink. Dunk. Play it safe or take a sack. Hope the running game and/or defense carries the load.

Pretty much exactly what we've seen the last 4 years, but with more accuracy in the short passing game.

Yawn.

Some points:

--Andy Reid has always been able to get more out of QBs than other coaches, and that is why I wanted him to begin with.
--Andy Reid is not a play not-to-lose coach - we will throw a LOT.
--Andy Reid seems to REALLY have wanted Alex Smith.

Put all those together, it seems clear to me that Reid thinks has a plan for Alex Smith, and considers him a franchise quarterback. Alex Smith does not have an elite arm, but does have an elite brain (40 wonderlic). If I had to guess, I'd say Reid is tired of all the turnovers he got with Vick, and will run an offense like Gruden and Callahan did with Rich Gannon, and we will throw it a LOT more than you guys think. I'm not saying it's going to be successful, just arguing that we will not play not-to-lose crap.

I guess we are so far removed from decent QB play for me to realize this, but if you take Alex's average yards/att last year and project it to the average number of times a QB throws the ball under Reid, we would be looking at between a 4,500 and 5,000 yard season....

He not only needs to play at a high level right away, he needs to elevate the level of play of those around him as well.

This was debunked a while back:

So there is no chance that he will be good?

You are a ****ing idiot.

LMAO

ELITE BRAIN


http://uranus.ckt.net/~gochiefs/elitebrain.gif

And what were those same QBs' ratings without Reid? That's what is relevant. I always thought Vick sucked and was stunned when Reid had him looking like a real NFL QB. Also, McNabb wasn't very good in DC and Minn.

No, we didn't "basically" give up a 1st round pick. We gave up a high 2nd round pick. If you have to exaggerate to make your point then your point is BS.

I'm expecting him to be about like Kyle Orton, but without the facial hair.

The jihad against Alex Smith makes no sense. If he is as bad as you fear, you should be going after Reid and Dorsey.

We gave up a high second round pick... a pick where you can still get 1st round talent.

No one is giving Reid or Dorsey a pass for that dumbass trade.

I think Alex Smith is going to break apart mid~season & in mid~air.

Someone should start an expectation thread for Chase Daniel.


I'd bet Chase can out play Alex Smith in preason but no competition to win the job.

Seems to me that they are. If Alex Smith is as limited as you guys believe, then Reid and Dorsey are as clueless as Pioli and there is ZERO hope until they are shit-canned.

as an opposing fan I really don't know what to expect from kc next year. New front office, new coaching, new QB, a high degree of roster turnover. All this makes for way more questions than answers. I know what Alex Smith brings to the table but that was with the Niners, I know what Reid brings to the table but that was with Philly. Mixing the two together along with a new coaching staff hampers me from making any grand prognostications. So here you go:

8-8

So, better than last year but not a playoff team. This record reflects one thing-I have no idea what to expect and it's about as middle of the road as I can come up with.

the 2nd pick of the 2nd round, where 1st round guys get selected who slipped through the cracks when someone reached.

so it might not be a 1st round pick but there is going to be 1st round talent there when the pick is made, which is all that really matters.

Clark Hunt and every "true fan's" dream.

Hey look, it's a gif!

If they fall into the second round they are second round picks. You can try to make your point by exaggerating their position, but if you have to exaggerate (essentially lie) then your point is BS. Too many of you do this.

"Elite Brain."

LMAO

LMAO

LMAO


That goes in the lexicon with "Designed Sacks."

No shit they are second round picks...

Second round picks with first round talent, but because there is only 32 1st round picks some will fall out of the 1st and be picked very early in the 2nd.

It's really not that complicated.

WE DO!

THEN THOSE DUMBASSES PULL THE "HERP DERP WHY DO YOU THINK YOU KNOW MORE ABOUT THE NFL THAN DORSEY AND REID? YOU ARE JUST A GUY WHILE THAT IS THEIR JOB! I WILL DEFEND EVERYTHING THEY DO NO MATTER WHAT!" CARD.

Or, as many think, there aren't even 32 fist round talents this year and the last few picks of the first are "essentially" second round picks. See, exaggeration works both ways. Either way, you are LYING to make your point. A second round pick is a second round pick and nothing else.

It apparently is that complicated for you. If they are not one of the 32 top players they are not first round talent. That is the definition of first round, the top 32 picks. There are only 32 picks in the first round.

Unless there is some new math I haven't heard of where 34 = 32.

Whatever. My argument isn't really even that I believe Alex Smith is all that good. I think Reid thinks HE IS THAT GOOD, and we will be throwing the ball A LOT. When is the last time we were league average in percentage of plays that were passes? I'll guessing we hit that in 2013.

Why would you think a team with Alex Smith would hit league average in passing ANYTHING?

He averaged less than 190 yards passing last year....

you are nitpicking

no, people don't think there are any top 8 picks this year. It's the elite talent that is missing.

It's a valuable pick and we flush that shit away by overpaying for Cassel's brother. Went got bent over in the trade and losing that pick hurts.

I'm kind of excited about the passing game and what it means for the running game, especially if Alex can SOMEHOW complete some down field passes. I really really want to see Charles carve up a spread out D and break through to the second level.

You have to leave clay alone. His brain is on full melt down mode. So much so, that the poor guy, is using videos from when singletary was still coaching.

He has nothing relevant to at any point and time when he had a coach with a winning record as a head coach. None. ANd he wouldnt dare post them, because most of the plays are smart plays.

Oh yeah, I forgot that when you have a bad coach you instantly start sucking on an individual level.

if we really throw the ball a lot then i think Smith implodes.


hey ... who knows, maybe Reid will have the WCO short passing game going so well it could be handled easy.

You jerkstain. These are all from the last two years.

http://i.imgur.com/jXxQWcj.gif

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http://uranus.ckt.net/~gochiefs/alexsucks7.gif

Kinda like Cassel when Weis was here.

Gonna be the same shit.

this makes no sense, just because this particular draft doesn't have perceived elite talent at certain positions like QB does not mean that there's no elite talent at any position. In fact, this years draft is supposedly pretty strong for elite talent at the offensive tackle position. This is probably why Reid is willing to trade Albert.

JFC. :facepalm:

We lost that pick for a guy that SF was going to have to cut anyways. There was no reason to give up a pick anywhere near that high for a backup QB that's been in the league for 8 years and has whose credentials are barely better than the guy he's replacing. It's like paying a new car price for car with 150,000 miles on it.

If Cassel can win 10, so can Smith.

I don't expect much more than that.

And then, there is the crowd like yourself, who thinks that coaching has no bearing, and that the mccarthys , charlie weis, josh mcdaniels, sean paytons of the worlds, matter not at all.....

THose are my favorites.

yup

This is more of that hyperbole that seems to be all you are capable of anymore. You have no idea if Alex Smith is going to be as bad as Matt Cassel.

Clay, if you wanted to because you are this big of a tool, you could pull up gifs of any qb in the nfl making a stupid play or ten. is that your perception, that the tom bradys of the world dont make mistakes? Like you know, take a safety on your teams first possession of the game for no reason?

Yeah, because tom brady did that. You could also pull up in the giants packers playoff game, you know the one where the giants destroyed them,, where rodgers completely over threw greg jennings, for NO REASON.....

Hey, you could even pull up peyton manning in the first half this year against the falcons where he threw 3 STRAIGHT INTERCEPTIONS.

so i guess with your ****ing logic those are all garbage qbs.

There were other teams interested. If he was cut we would have had to compete with them. By trading we assured we got him. You can argue that he is a bad choice (although it is way too early to know that), but if Andy Reid thinks he is the best QB available (and he apparently does) then trading instead of waiting for his release makes a lot of sense.

You have no idea if he's going to be better.

Especially since statistically, he's only ever been worse than Cassel's two best seasons.

He'll average 10-11 starts per year, providing, roughly, slightly-above average production in these limited starts.

As he's done his entire ****ing career. This isn't a ****ing guess; it's based on a significant sample size.

Alex Smith takes a shit ton of sacks and is afraid to throw the ball down the field.

His football smarts are lacking in my estimation.

What?

I mean, Jim Plunkett, for ****s sake.

DOUG WILLIAMS. DREW BREES.

IT'S HAPPENED BEFORE, DAMMIT!

Hyperbole? Why should we expect anything different than how it went with Matt Casshole? I don't see how anybody can get excited to the Alex Smith trade I just don't see it.


Same as it ever was same as it ever was.

it makes sense, you just don't agree ... which is fine.

Coaching matters SOME. But good players will shine SOME through the adversity of a bad coach. Mediocre to bad players just drift with the flow - like Smith.