Yes in that he's the kind of talent that I think you can/should target every draft.

No in that I think his almost total lack of awareness in his limited game action suggests that he's not one of the steals that you will occasionally stumble into.

That approach is going to yield precisely dick 4 times out of 5, in all likelihood, but it doesn't have to hit often to be hugely beneficial. And I'm not saying cut him because his physical tools say he should get at least one more shot to stick, but he's the kind of guy you are constantly layering. Add another guy just like him next season and give that guy a season or two. Rinse, repeat. Constantly have 1 or 2 guys like that in the chamber to see what they have.

Yeah, I think Smith is exactly that kind of approach, but I don't think he's likely to amount to a ton. C'est la vie - there's little organizational capital invested in him so if you move on from him, you're not really hurt.

I also think most teams wildly underutilize UDFA's. Give me 10 UDFA's over my 5th, 6th and 7th round picks and I'll be happier with the pile of 10 UDFA's that I can comb through more often than not.

I wish I knew how to do a search for UDFA productivity over the last 5 years and compare it to guys drafted at least in the 6th and 7th rounds. The 5th may be a little ambitious but I'm betting there is at least as much production culled from the undrafted ranks every year than there are from those last couple of rounds. Ward vs. Smith is a great example of it.

I'd like to see Smith get a little more run next offseason and preseason to see. It's so damn hard for rookies to make much of an impact when they have technique issues.

Give him an offseason and see what happens.

Same with Speaks, which sucks. I don't think he'll amount to much, but we'll see.

Draft a CB and DL in the draft. Go and get Shane Ray on a hometown deal for depth.

Having not read much of the thread, I really like Justin Hamilton’s potential in this DL rotation

Okay, looks like I've figured it out and messed w/ '18 for a single season of review.

In 2018 there were 84 UDFA rookies who graded out in AV (Pro football reference's composite measurement). They totalled 159 'points' and were led by...well of course you guessed it....Andrew Wylie and his 8. It's not a perfect analysis because Wylie was a rookie but was technically eligible for the 2017 draft. But in either event, he was a UDFA who went undrafted and thus could've been on anyone's roster.

In the 6th and 7th rounds there were 38 rookies who 'scored' and they totaled 67 'points'. If I include the 5th round that's another 29 scoring rookies and 52 points. So from the 2018 draft there were 67 rookies taken in rounds 5-7 who 'scored' via the AV system. They contributed a total of 119 points.

The UDFAs absolutely wreck those numbers.

Seriously, teams wildly under-utilize the UDFA pool and in so doing overvalue their picks in the 5th, 6th and 7th rounds. Punt those picks, use them to move up in the other rounds and simply take those roster spots and allocate them to the 'winners' of the an annual roster competition among a larger pool of UDFA players.

Here's the little stat machine that can figure this out if you want to do it over a number of years.

https://www.pro-football-reference.c...psl_finder.cgi

I guess I lean a little heavy to the defense but when you call up Ron Parker at home after and injury or 2 then your talent cupboard is pretty bare. If an exceptional offensive value falls to you great, you take them, but until the Chiefs get past their "31" or "32" era defense that's where I feel they got to get talent. Not a big fan of defensive FA, most of the time 1 team's trash is … another team's trash.

I think you can replace Bailey for less in FA.
I think you need one starting safety, and I'd like it to be a Landon Collins. Also a possibility would be Earl Thomas on a short deal.
I think you can get a replacement for Nelson in FA.
Then I think you draft DL, CB's, S's for development.

The young defenders have shown signs of life recently, which is great to see.

Assuming what we've seen recently means we do not need a total-rebuild on D, then I would try to stay as balanced as possible in drafting. Maybe a little heavier on D, since they churn a little faster anyway (compared with offensive skill guys, or so it seems).

I would probably try draft 4 on D and 3 on O for pretty much every draft, and then use any extra draft picks on D.

Hopefully we do get some value added on offense at the skill positions. I do believe it's true that Patrick & Andy will make some average WR's very rich over the next decade by making them look better than they would be for an average QB.

What’s Colquitt’s contract status? We can better utilize those resources now that we have the QB.

I really think that we need to focus on stopping the run. DL or ILB should be top priority IMO.

Look at our conference. There isn’t a QB that can rationally think that getting in a shootout with Mahomes is a good idea.

Guarantee the Patriots will try to run the ball down our throats on Sunday. If we can limit teams from doing that, they’ll be in major trouble.

It'd be nice if the Chiefs traded Speaks during next year's draft.

I literally ****ing cringe every time that slow fat pos comes onto the field.

Picks, 1-2-2-3 all need to be defense. Preferably two front 7 guys and two DB's....aim for BDPA.

Maybe a swing tackle or backup TE at 4, or hell I wouldn't be opposed to drafting all defense to be honest.

ERFA, still have to tender him. About as close to being "under contract" as you may find but still.

At least one. No other players on this list are really 3-4 DEs. Hamilton can slide out there in a pinch. I'd say you need 2.


If they don't, you end up with 2 players that haven't shown they can be starters and an aging Houston. Don't look good.

Whole lot of meh. I mean, I get it. If you can't significantly upgrade then it's mostly just a depth game. Still wouldn't preclude me from spending an early pick on the spot.


Agreed. Ward looks promising, but we've found out in the past with guys like Cooper and Gaines that promise isn't everything.


Lucas looks promising, but see above and he's an RFA which will require about a $2m tender or a new contract. Watts hasn't proven shit and Sorensen and Murray are mediocre when they are at their best and downright dog shit at their worst. Berry should be cut. You need to get at least one safety in the mix. It may be better that guy be an athletic FS.


I think you're grasping at straws trying to make chicken salad out of chicken shit. This defense still has huge holes that could get bigger depending on what they decide to do with Ford and Berry. You need to at least have starters at CB, DE, and FS, and you should have one at ILB.

I'm seeing several mocks listing Taylor Rapp to us. I feel like we need a minimum of 1 new starter at safety; I assume that Berry will not be available. A corner or 2.

I guess my overall idea is that you should take the best player available without needing to reach for specific positions. I feel a whole lot better about the defensive personnel than I did all season.

I'd still like another DL piece. Nnadi's done well, Jones is a stud. Bailey's maybe slightly above average and kind of expensive. Williams is average. DE or DT.

I wonder if Berry and Houston don't want to restructure if we will end up cutting or trading them? Wouldn't be a good idea without a replacement plan in place, but signing Ford, Hill, and Jones have to be priority.

What do you think is non ridiculous for Ford? I'm kind of mixed on it. Has he proven enough beyond one year to warrant a historic contract? At the same time, this defense especially can't afford to lose it's best players.

Ford and Hill are going to get their money. I just hope that it is something somewhat reasonable. That would help for the flexibility of the future and building on what we have.

They need to just keep stockpiling guys in the front 7. Free agency could yield some depth there and then hit some on the draft.