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Could not be a bigger apples/oranges comparison. |
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http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2012/...-chargers-job/ |
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These WR's gotta step up and help (and TE's) but mainly Baldwin. He has to give Bowe a legit guy across from him. If that happens, I think we will have a successful season. I'm expecting the D to be "epic" :clap: |
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What are everyone's expectations for the D this year?
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Just for sake of argument, here's Smith's outputs in yards and TDs if extrapolated to 16 games, in offenses that pass LESS often than Reid's offense (more passes = more TDs/INT/Yards). Parenthesis are numbers if adjusted for "quarters of play" not games. I will explain the rationale for each below. 2006: 2890 yards, 16 TDs, 16 INTs 2007: 2437 yards, 5 TDs, 11 INTs (2459 yards, 5 TDs, 5 INTs) 2009: 3418 yards, 26 TDs, 17 INTs (3581 yards, 27 TDs, 18 INTs) 2010: 3447 yards, 20 TDs, 14.5 INTs (3700 yards, 22 TDs, 16 INTs) 2011: 3144 yards, 17 TDs, 5 INTs 2012: 3088 yards, 23 TDs, 9 INTs (3270 yards, 24.5 TDs, 9 INTs) I tried to be fair in calculations, here are my explanations. 2005: Left out because I don't think it's relevant. He was terrible, numbers can't express how bad. 2006: He played every snap (first Niners QB to do that), so no change here. 2007: I included this, though I think when 2/3 of the season you are playing with a torn throwing shoulder, it's not very probative. I extrapolated pre-torn shoulder in the parenthesis. 2009: He played one half of one game, so I adjusted it in the parenthesis. 2010: He missed one half of one game and was put in one quarter of another. Took the non-played quarters out for the parenthesis. 2011: Kaepernick played too little to adjust. 2012: He played one quarter and one half series (partial drive ending in his TD throw) in one game and threw one pass in another (with victory formation after that). That is 1.2 quarters rounded to two for compromise. I did not take out the Kaepernick plays in other games, though they did account for a bit over a quarter when you add them up. (22 QB pass or runs, not including handoffs.) My point? He was on pace for 26-27 TDs in 2009 and 23-25 TDs in 2012. I would base my expectations on a number higher than 18. The range of numbers in the last four years: 3000-3700 yards, 17-27 TDs, and 5-17 INTs. All over the place, but INTs are trending better. Going by the last four years (pre and post Harbaugh) and an elevated number of pass attempts would lead to these numbers: 323-520, 62.1%, 3625 yards, 7.0 YPA, 24 TDs, 12 INTs, 88.7 rating. Last Two Years: 334-520, 64.3%, 3828 yards, 24 TDs, 8 INTs, 95.3 rating. 520 was in the middle of Reid's average and Smith's max. Note: I did these numbers awhile ago on another message board. Except for the first paragraph, I just copied and pasted a few posts together. Didn't mean to have such a long post nor did I spend such a long time on one post. :) |
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Posted via Mobile Device |
Guys, Andy Reid didn't come here to totally change the way he goes about the business of football. He's not going to turn into Marty Shottenheimer circa 1990. He's going to do what Andy Reid does, and he's going to bench any QB that can't get it done, just like he always has.
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get ready for rrpp
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