Picking the top 25 in order of who will turn out the best is like picking a perfect 65 team bracket in NCAA basketball. Except you don't know exactly which "teams" are in the "tourney".

I prefer we just pick a name out of a hat.

Its a process.

The problem is partially that their final boards and rankings are heavily influenced by their sources who tell them which team is drafting and targeting certain players. This way on draft day when their top 25 are all gone by the 30th pick in the draft - they look smart to the average viewer.

Yeah, that's why you have to track the changes between now and the draft.

Guys like Rick Gosselin have very little variance.

Guys like Kiper make WHOLESALE changes to their boards.

Does Gosselin even have a board now?

Are you aware of any "expert" who has a clue with regard to QB's? And lets face it, part of the problem is the team that drafts a player. Wilson wouldn't have gotten the opportunity to win the starting job in KC. He'd still be viewed as a wasted reach if KC drafted him.

No, because Gosselin ONLY listens to his sources. He doesn't try to be scout, he's in the prediction business.

What gets guys like Kiper in trouble is that they try to pretend to be scouts and then when it gets close, they change it all up. Kiper wants people to believe he's a scout when in reality, he too is in the prediction business.

I think Scott Wright does a fairly good job of analyzing players, not just QBs. He's had Barkley and Smith 1/2 for most of the season.

Draft 'experts' are just as likely to know who good prospects are as fans are.

I'm not convinced teams are much better either.

That's why the draft is fun for people who really like college ball. The annoying ones are the guys who read the primer and think they're an expert. I don't do either as I'm no draftnik, but I certainly know some fans are a lot better at this than others....

The nice thing about Wright is he keeps his archives accessible, but he's as bad with QB's as anyone. His top two QBs each year with their overall ranking:

2007
Quinn #2 prospect (miss)
Russell #5 (miss)

2008
Ryan #6 (hit)
Brohm #28 (miss, shouldn't have been in top 100)

2009
Stafford #1 (I'll say hit, some will say no)
Sanchez #6 (miss)

2010
Clausen #10 (miss)
Bradford #11 (Incomplete maybe?)

2011
Gabbert #9 (miss)
Locker #26 (too early?)
Newton #29 (miss, too far back. Should be ahead of 1 and 2)

2012
He, like the rest of the world, liked Luck (1) and Griffin (5) but had Wilson at #152.

I think they are like every team out there. 30% success is about it. Some years its 0% some years you hit 60% but combined even the hive mind of CP its pretty much who knows.

Anybody check out James Christensen's stuff?

He runs this site: Patriots Draft

Seems to be pretty legit, and I like the way they list their draft profiles, especially the QB stuff.

He also has Geno at the top of his board. Link to his scouting report on Geno: here.

He has the the Chiefs taking Tyler Wilson over Geno Smith with the first overall pick.

Interesting: He's got Sheldon Richardson going 3rd overall to the Raiders.

I don't see that. He's got Geno Smith going to the Chiefs if Brandon Albert is retained. But he says "Luke Joeckel has to be the pick" if Albert leaves.

Edit: It looks like that site has 4 different guys doing mocks. The one duncan_idaho mentioned has the Chiefs taking Geno. So do two of the others. The fourth guy has the Chiefs taking Matt Barkley.

Yeah, its several guys in collaboration. Their profiles are legit. And the scouting reports certainly track well (I used to edit Russ Lande, and I think this stuff is just as good/easier to read).