ChiefsPlanet - Chiefs KCJohnny’s 2009 Chiefs Opening Day Analysis

GM moves: signing Cassel for $60 million is a waste of cap space. Cassel started for an 18-1 team that set an NFL record with Brady’s 50 TD passes. Cassel threw for 21 with the identical lineup. Chiefs continue to struggle with DL draft picks and could have better spent the cap dollars on acquiring Albert Haynesworth and developing Thigpen, Croyle, or drafting Sanchez. Trading away the best TE to ever step onto an NFL field will cripple an offense already paper thin on receiving weapons. Bringing in players at the end of their career (Thomas, Engram, Vrabel, Toomer, et al) doesn’t seem to make sense for a team rebuilding.
　
HC: Haley is overrated as an OC and unproven as a HC. Firing Gailey who ably served in ’08 as OC/QBs coach is a mistake. Gailey is a father-figure with a proven track record for developing young talent and building offenses around existing capabilities. Haley is a screamer who tests, intimidates and threatens. The Parcells comparisons are overhyped IMHO. Haley rode to the top with a dream lineup at AZ that managed to stay healthy through January. He has 2 PB players on his current offense (Waters, LJ).

QBs: The Chiefs had a QB that accounted for 22 scores in just 11 starts last year. Cassel will get every chance to prove he is not another Derek Andersen. Croyle has the most talent and skill among the Chiefs QBs but questions about his durability persist. Gutierrez has enough talent to make the squad if KC succeeds in shopping Thigpen. Look for Croyle to start September 13 at Baltimore.<SUP>

Strengths: The 2009 Chiefs should run for 2000 yards if they can avoid falling behind early, something they mostly succeeded at in ’08. The bench is strong and the running game looked stout against vanilla defenses in pre-season. Defense will be soft between the 20s but may firm up in the RZ with the 3-4. Chiefs may wind up playing BucBall in low-scoring contests still up for grabs in the 4th quarter. Sound familiar?

Weaknesses: This offense has been putrid on 3rd downs. Without Gonzalez, 3rd downs seem impossible to convert regardless of who is under center. Unless Lelie rehabs his waning career (remember Derek Alexander in 2000? It can happen…), the Chiefs have no proven deep threat on the perimeter and will rely on a dink-dunk passing attack to mask vulnerabilities on a shuffling OL. Likewise, the defense is softer than wet tissue on 3rd downs, and will be staying on the field too long. Injuries could push a unit on the bubble off the cliff. Clancy Pendergast’s ’08 Cards advanced to the SB despite allowing 26.6 ppg in the regular season. The ’08 Chiefs yielded 27.7.

Analysis: Haley has bitten off more than he can chew as HC and OC. His bad cop style of leadership may wear thin on the squad unless they see results by the bye week. Revolving QBs may complicate Haley’s goals if injuries occur behind a makeshift OL that is still developing even basic chemistry. The test will be improving over the 17 week season. If the Chiefs appear to be buying in, performing well and keeping games close by December, Haley will be on his way. The AFC Worst could be conquered by an 8-8 team again this year, and even the hapless Chiefs cannot be counted out already.

Prediction: 5-11, last place.
Bargain of the year: Corey Mays at $395k. Gamer.
Make or break year: Glenn Dorsey has to prove he can thrive at DE in the 3-4.
Most likely to have a breakout year: Tamba Hali will benefit significantly from the 3-4.

Go Chiefs!
KCJohnny
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