The 2008 NBA Finals were fantastic. This year's finals are shaping up to be even better:
- The Lakers have gotten bigger and tougher in the interior.
- Rondo's emergence gives the Celtics the ability to do so much more than they were able to do in 2008.
- The Lakers have a shutdown defender in Artest who will be 110% dedicated to shutting down Pierce.
- Rasheed Wallace gives the Celtics the depth necessary down low. The Celtics and Lakers both have very deep benches.
- The Celtics just want to win every single game they play more than the other team. The Lakers just want to get the Celtics back.
This series is going to come down to the paint. The Lakers score about 50% of their points by being bigger and taller than the other team. But the Celtics rotation of Garnett/Perkins/Baby/Wallace is deep enough to play them. I guarantee you Doc Rivers' #1 priority will be to push the Lakers out of the paint just like they've done with the Cavs and the Magic.
If they're successful, this means the Lakers will need to come up with at least 40 points a game somewhere other than the paint. Which they can do, of course, especially with Kobe on hand. But it's not going to come from Fisher, who was equals with Rondo in 2008 but now will be completely outclassed by him. And I imagine Artest will be a defensive force this year, focusing just on shutting down Pierce with little attention to the offensive end.
That pretty much leaves things up to Kobe to drive the offense against Ray Allen's savvy and Tony Allen's doggedness. He struggled against a combination of Allen and Posey in 2008. Time will tell if he can finally crack that Celtics defense.
Gasol vs. Garnett when Gasol's will be downright fascinating. Whoever gets the best of this matchup when Gasol's got the ball will determine the series. If Gasol can reliable keep racking up points against Garnett's defense, the Celtics defense will have to clench up to help and open up LA's bombers. If Garnett can keep Gasol under wraps, the Lakers will have no interior game (Bynum stands no chance against Perkins, and Odom will be facing a Garnett/Wallace combination that won't bode well for him), and they're going to struggle to put up points.
On the other end of the court, certainly Phil Jackson's main goal will be to (a.) keep Pierce under wraps with Artest, and (b.) play incredibly soft off Rondo like they did in 2008 to cut off his penetration and forcing him into jump shots. If Rondo hits his shots, this series is blown wide open in the Celtics favor. But he'll probably be iffy, as is his usual way.
Pierce will be shut down, but Garnett will pose problems for Gasol. Garnett's range extends farther than Gasol's ability to defend. If Garnett's hitting, Gasol will have to play tight, and that will open up tons of drives.
With Rondo mostly neutralized, Allen will pose problems for the Lakers' starting backcourt. I imagine they'll try to shut him down with Fisher since he's a ferocious screen-fighter and you simply don't want Kobe fighting through three screens when he needs to be carrying your offense on the other end. Fisher, however, tries to literally fight back against screens and that will slow him down, opening up Allen. Putting in Brown or Farmar will stand a better chance in tracking him down, but they both are turnover prone.
So we get to the bench. The Lakers have the most talented bench, but the Celtics bench outplayed them anyway when that was also the case in 2008. The big difference is that the Celtics do not have a deadeye bomber coming off the bench this year, but they do have a deeper frontcourt and a great hustle-defender in Tony Allen. The Lakers meanwhile will be giving Odom every chance to contribute, with typically mixed results. Intensity will be on Boston's side, which was enough in 2008. It's uncertain if that's the case in 2010.
And that cuts to the heart of the issue. There is no quit in this Celtics team, which is as mentally tough and impregnable as the NBA's seen since the stone cold Spurs of the early 2000s. You can blow them out in one game, only for them to meet you stride for stride in the next game. Mentally, they will not be vanquished. The Lakers have a couple players who are similar in Kobe, Fisher, and Gasol. But the rest of the team is awfully moody, much like they were in 2008, and can thus be demoralized like they were that year. But they are extremely hungry to beat this Celtics team.
I'm a Celtics fan, but I think it's a Lakers-friendly series, since the 2-3-2 format works extremely well for the home team.
Lakers in 6. But this Celtics team is as unpredictably good as it gets, so who knows.
