Starting to think the Chiefs will need to trade down... or...
 

Normally I do not advocate this stuff, because I am usually not a fan of trading down in the first round. But I've been looking over the talent in this upcoming draft and I think this might need to be the case.

First, let's take a look at the elite talent that has no chance of making it out of the first round:

QB Andrew Luck, Stanford
QB Robert Griffin, Baylor
WR Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State
OT Matt Kalil, USC
CB Morris Claiborne, LSU

The remaining top tier talent doesn't really match up value with what we want, with one major exception.

RB Trent Richardson, Alabama
WR Alshon Jeffrey, South Carolina
OT Jonathan Martin, Stanford
OT Riley Reiff, Iowa
OG David DeCastro, Stanford
DT Devin Still, Penn State
DE Quentin Coples, North Carolina
ILB Luke Kuechly, Boston College
CB Dre Kirkpatrick, Alabama
CB Janoris Jenkins, North Alabama

Scott Pioli is a legit believer in draft value, though he has broken with it before when he drafted Eric Berry. I don't think he breaks it two out of three years however, so players like Richardson, DeCastro, and Kuechly don't really seem to warrant a Top 12 pick.

It also seems to eliminate right tackle. It's been two years of Pioli passing over right tackle after right tackle, even with last year's great prospects like Carimi and Castonzo. So I think that takes Martin (who honestly isn't right tackle material to me) and Reiff out of the equation.

Meanwhile, we can eliminate the players that don't fit our defense (Still, Coples).

That leaves us with the corners. You can take Jenkins out of consideration since there is no way Pioli wants a guy with his character questions.

Kirkpatrick is a perfect fit for this team ONLY IF this team lets Brandon Carr walk. If Carr stays on the roster, we really have no need for Kirkpatrick, either.

That leaves me to believe the Chiefs will almost certainly try to trade down until they get a tackle or one of the lesser valued positions (ILB, RB, NT) at a much better value.

For some reason, I have recently noticed a lot of your draft posts and have come to the conclusion....You are a pretty smart guy.
I could definitely see this unfolding and for the reasons you suggest.

Do you think Pioli knows how much he sucks?

I think Richardson at 11/12 would be a good value pick. Otherwise, I mostly agree with you.

Stupid people don't know they are stupid.

Richardson is worthy of being a top 10 pick. If he's there when we pick, Pioli would be stupid not to consider him because...

- he'll probably be the best player available
- he'd be a great insurance policy if Jamaal isn't the same player after the ACL injury

Alshon Jeffrey is a beast of a receiver, but I don't see Pioli taking him since Bowe will be re-signed/franchised, and we just spent a 1st rounder on Baldwin last year.

I can see us going with a G or RT, even though it wouldn't be a great value unless we trade down. If we do go OL, we definitely need to trade down.

Agreed. We have no idea how JC will be this year coming back off the that injury. Richardson and Charles would be the most badass 1-2 punch for the next 4-5 years if JC comes back at, let's say, 90% of what he was before.

Jeffery is very raw. Very talented, but very raw. I say we keep Bowe, who is proven, and move forward with the talented three we have now and maybe we pick up a good WR in the later rounds if we absolutely need to.

But I definitely agree with the statement about the OL. We need to do something to address this, but at 11/12, there's not enough value. Trade down and grab a couple mid-round picks as well and then we're talking.

If only Bobby Beathard were still around to make dumbass trades. I would love to trade out of the 1st this year and stockpile future picks.

I'd be happy with Richardson. Like someone said, JC might not come back as the same player and if JC can come back, then that's gonna be a killer 1-2 punch. Plus, we won't be getting a QB in the 1st so, if we want any offense next season, that's the best option.

How are you sure Richardson is going to be available at 11-12? If there are only 5 top tier talent prospects, who do teams 6-10 pick?

I'm not a draftnik, but I have to ask what the hell are ou talking about here? Let's look at the whole Pioli record where he drafted Tyson Jackson. Jackson at 5-tech at the number 3 overall pick was a far worse "value pick" than Eric Berry, the best safety prospect in at least 5 years. To call Berry a "non-value pick" I'm just speechless. Jackson wasn't on anybody's radar until draft day and Berry was "the guy" every one wanted in September. Picking Berry was the ultimate value pick. As far as positional value, safety is at least as valuable as a 5-tech. The case that Pioli wants to make value picks is not disrupted in the least by taking Berry, but is devastated by taking Tyson Jackson.

I'd be cool with trading the pick for a 2nd rounder and a first next year.

uh, this. most people here were worried that berry wouldn't be still available at #5, not that pioli reached by picking him.

I mostly agree with you. Richardson is a sexy pick but will be overvalued. There will be other RBs later in the draft as good or better. The only area where I think you might be mistaken is one of the tackles. Reif was a Ferentz guy and is probably NFL ready. Most OL take a few years to get the hang of the NFL game he might be the exception. People want to move Albert to G or RT but that's a pay cut from his current position and one he is not likely to accept.

I have no problem with them trading down and gaining some picks if they can get productive bigs in the later rounds. I could actually see them making a play for a Matt Flynn. I know everyone thinks Pioli is enamored with Cassel but he didn't get where he is by being stupid. I think he is very aware of the QB situation and if he has a chance to address it he will.

I don't agree with you but I would love nothing more than to be wrong.