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-   -   General Politics Obama Gets 4-7 Point Bounce From Convention (http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=263390)

RINGLEADER 09-09-2012 07:20 AM

Obama Gets 4-7 Point Bounce From Convention
 
Depending on the survey it's pretty clear that Obama has gotten a 4-7 point bounce from his convention. Romney's bounce, which started with the naming of Paul Ryan to the ticket, was anywhere from neglible to 5. The RCP averages before the naming of Ryan were consistent around Obama +4 (getting close to Obama +5 at their peak), so it will be interesting to see how the averages go. So far it's looking like Obama will be back in that territory soon.

The first debate is all that really matters at this point. If something decisive happens Romney can recapture the momentum. Absent that, it's looking like we're on our way to four more years like the last four years, but only now we'll have Obamacare baked in.

Now, on to football...

whoman69 09-09-2012 07:36 AM

538 calls Romney's bounce a bogey (less than expected or needed) and Obama's bounce a birdie, possible eagle. Romney needed to pull ahead of Obama or at minimum pull even with him. He's not been really ahead except for a one week period last year. That's not going to fire up the base knowing he can't even get even after his convention. But not all the data is in yet since some of the surveys were taken before the speeches of Clinton and Obama. The data they do have shows the mediocre jobs report has done nothing to Obama's lead.

BigRedChief 09-09-2012 08:15 AM

The explainer in chief FTW!

BigRedChief 09-09-2012 08:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER (Post 8890630)
The first debate is all that really matters at this point. If something decisive happens Romney can recapture the momentum. Absent that, it's looking like we're on our way to four more years like the last four years, but only now we'll have Obamacare baked in.

Now, on to football...

Romeny cant beat Obama in a debate. Nada chance. Obama isnt Biden, he wont misspeak and do something really stupid. the debates are mattering less and less. Very few people have not made up the mind. And lastly, the pool of undecideds is really small.

mlyonsd 09-09-2012 08:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief (Post 8890728)
Romeny cant beat Obama in a debate. Nada chance. Obama isnt Biden, he wont misspeak and do something really stupid. the debates are mattering less and less. Very few people have not made up the mind. And lastly, the pool of undecideds is really small.

Still give you that tingle up the leg does he?:p

Oh, and you're wrong. As he's proven, without a teleprompter there's no guarantee of what will come out of his mouth.

I've always said it will come down to the debates. And i'm right.

dirk digler 09-09-2012 08:43 AM

Mittens may have gotten a negative bounce which I didn't believe was possible.

Also if you look at the TV ratings between the 2 conventions the DNC destroyed the RNC. Hell Clinton drew more viewers than the NFL.

Quote:

The Princeton Election Consortium finds Mitt Romney actually got a negative bounce coming out of his convention.

"Indeed, it appears that the race shifted towards President Obama by 6-15 EV, or about 1.0% of Popular Vote Meta-Margin. From an analytical perspective, a negative bounce is quite remarkable because all the talk in recent weeks has been of bounces being smaller or zero, but always in the hosting party's favor. It is all the more remarkable because of the relatively small number of state polls over the last week, so that the Meta-analysis's inputs have not fully turned over... So the negative bounce may be larger than what is shown in the graph. Such an event would have been missed in past years (and even this year) because national polls don't have the best resolution."

RINGLEADER 09-09-2012 08:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief (Post 8890728)
Romeny cant beat Obama in a debate. Nada chance. Obama isnt Biden, he wont misspeak and do something really stupid. the debates are mattering less and less. Very few people have not made up the mind. And lastly, the pool of undecideds is really small.

The first debate matters. After that, the voting starts. Even if Obama were to screw up royally in the last debate it wouldn't matter.

The other angle for Romeny is to excite the base. His interviews this morning (advocating for parts of Obamacare and bemoaning the GOP for the sequester and boasting how his plans will raise taxes paid by the rich) probably won't help that.

For some reason Romney doesn't seem to understand that by making the distinctions between he and Obama less, he's making it easier for people to vote for the other guy they know (and like) better.

dirk digler 09-09-2012 08:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mlyonsd (Post 8890829)
I've always said it will come down to the debates. And i'm right.

I think they will only matter if someone says something stupid. Other than that they are basically 90 minutes of talking points not a real debate.

Aries Walker 09-09-2012 08:47 AM

I generally ignore the polls for a week or two after the conventions.

dirk digler 09-09-2012 08:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER (Post 8890839)

The other angle for Romeny is to excite the base. His interviews this morning (advocating for parts of Obamacare and bemoaning the GOP for the sequester and boasting how his plans will raise taxes paid by the rich) probably won't help that.

For some reason Romney doesn't seem to understand that by making the distinctions between he and Obama less, he's making it easier for people to vote for the other guy they know (and like) better.

I am glad you brought that up because I almost started a thread about that this morning. Here is a guy that wants to repeal Obamacare but finally admits there is good parts of it that he wants to keep. I don't believe he has ever stated that before. I bet RedState is imploding as we speak.

Then he starts bashing his own running mate for agreeing with the sequester or maybe he didn't realize Ryan agreed to that deal as well.

Oh by the way what has happened to Paul Ryan has anyone seen him? He is like bigfoot lately.

mlyonsd 09-09-2012 08:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dirk digler (Post 8890866)
I am glad you brought that up because I almost started a thread about that this morning. Here is a guy that wants to repeal Obamacare but finally admits there is good parts of it that he wants to keep. I don't believe he has ever stated that before. I bet RedState is imploding as we speak.

Then he starts bashing his own running mate for agreeing with the sequester or maybe he didn't realize Ryan agreed to that deal as well.

Oh by the way what has happened to Paul Ryan has anyone seen him? He is like bigfoot lately.

Ryan was just on Meet the Press. Nora O'Donnell did a crack job of asking important questions like how fast he really did run a marathon.

dirk digler 09-09-2012 09:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mlyonsd (Post 8890877)
Ryan was just on Meet the Press. Nora O'Donnell did a crack job of asking important questions like how fast he really did run a marathon.

LMAO Foot in mouth.

RINGLEADER 09-09-2012 09:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dirk digler (Post 8890866)
I am glad you brought that up because I almost started a thread about that this morning. Here is a guy that wants to repeal Obamacare but finally admits there is good parts of it that he wants to keep. I don't believe he has ever stated that before. I bet RedState is imploding as we speak.

Then he starts bashing his own running mate for agreeing with the sequester or maybe he didn't realize Ryan agreed to that deal as well.

Oh by the way what has happened to Paul Ryan has anyone seen him? He is like bigfoot lately.

No, he specifically mentioned these things the day John Roberts, er, the Supreme Court ruled it constitutional. I understand his political reason for saying it then, but not now. He just doesn't seem to be capable of spinning questions into answers that, while evasive, help his cause. Instead of prefacing the answer to reframe the question he writes the headline himself to be "Romney: Obamacare ain't all that bad!"

He's a terrible politician.

Lightrise 09-09-2012 09:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief (Post 8890728)
Romeny cant beat Obama in a debate. Nada chance. Obama isnt Biden, he wont misspeak and do something really stupid. the debates are mattering less and less. Very few people have not made up the mind. And lastly, the pool of undecideds is really small.

I agree. Romney will do ok and it will be close to a draw. I expect huge ratings for the debates. But in the end it still boils down to battleground states. No matter how much money Romney spends, Obama stays in Florida and talks Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security and Biden talks to blue collar people in Ohio. Obama speaks to Veterans in Virginia from the White House lawn. This election is over for Romney, the negative ads won't be enough to win 90% of the undecided he would need.

BigRedChief 09-09-2012 09:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mlyonsd (Post 8890829)
Still give you that tingle up the leg does he?:p

Oh, and you're wrong. As he's proven, without a teleprompter there's no guarantee of what will come out of his mouth.

I've always said it will come down to the debates. And i'm right.

nah, that tingle is gone. :deevee:

And your wrong about the debates.


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