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-   -   General Politics Intrade has Obama at 68% sure win. We have historic campaign collapse (http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=263892)

Lightrise 09-18-2012 10:09 AM

Intrade has Obama at 68% sure win. We have historic campaign collapse
 
This thing is spiraling out of control so fast Romney's advisors cannot possibly hatch a damage control strategy. Mother Jones will drip drip drip this out toward the debate and expectations will be incredibly high. The entire country won't be tuning in to make a decision, they will be tuning in to see Mitt Romney make a fool of himself. There is simply a lack of understanding of the country on the part of Romney and this campaign.

One thing to watch, the state of Georgia! It's closer than anybody believed possible and if the establishment gives up and doesn't vote this one may make national headlines. Ohio and Virginia are definitely goners now. Florida is next and the flood waters will flow.

La literatura 09-18-2012 10:12 AM

If it keep on rainin', the levee gonna break . . .

KC native 09-18-2012 10:19 AM

Intrade is garbage. Thinly traded and easily manipulated.

RINGLEADER 09-18-2012 11:11 AM

Is this the same Intrade that said Hillary Clinton would be president?

jjjayb 09-18-2012 12:51 PM

Keep saying it over and over and it may eventually come true eh Lightrise?

FD 09-18-2012 05:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KC native (Post 8924610)
Intrade is garbage. Thinly traded and easily manipulated.

Then you should profit off its wrongness. Thats the nice thing about prediction markets, you can put your money where your mouth is.

KC native 09-18-2012 10:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FD (Post 8925969)
Then you should profit off its wrongness. Thats the nice thing about prediction markets, you can put your money where your mouth is.

Hehe I couldn't trade it if I wanted too .

RINGLEADER 09-18-2012 11:40 PM

So how does this thing work? If I went in and offered thousands to buy up Romney contracts could I single-handedly move this market?

KC native 09-19-2012 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER (Post 8926860)
So how does this thing work? If I went in and offered thousands to buy up Romney contracts could I single-handedly move this market?

Yes. Some rich bastard did that for McCain last election.

Taco John 09-19-2012 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER (Post 8924845)
Is this the same Intrade that said Hillary Clinton would be president?

No it didn't.

Taco John 09-19-2012 12:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KC native (Post 8927548)
Yes. Some rich bastard did that for McCain last election.

And the market corrected and went back to normal and that guy lost his ass.

I thought you were supposed to be smart about economics, not this dumb.

Intrade is a market, and has to be read like a market.

Taco John 09-19-2012 12:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER (Post 8926860)
So how does this thing work? If I went in and offered thousands to buy up Romney contracts could I single-handedly move this market?

For a brief moment, yes. But while you moved the market up, smart people will recognize that they could make money off of you and sell, and move it back down.

InTrade is an indicator that absorbs all the information in the market, and moves up or down in real time based on that information. It should be read as "if the election were held right now, this is who the market believes would win." And in that sense, it's 100% right. It moves as the news moves, and at the end of the election, it will have the winner at 100%.

InTrade is NOT a crystal ball. It's a market indicator. Just like a stock.

Calcountry 09-19-2012 03:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Taco John (Post 8927687)
And the market corrected and went back to normal and that guy lost his ass.

I thought you were supposed to be smart about economics, not this dumb.

Intrade is a market, and has to be read like a market.

LMAO

KC native 09-19-2012 04:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Taco John (Post 8927687)
And the market corrected and went back to normal and that guy lost his ass.

I thought you were supposed to be smart about economics, not this dumb.

Intrade is a market, and has to be read like a market.

Color me not surprised that you don't get Intrade. Intrade is gambling with the veneer of financial market.

You aren't trading on any intrinsic value. It is an extremely shallow market which makes it easy to manipulate.

Calcountry 09-19-2012 04:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KC native (Post 8928354)
Color me not surprised that you don't get Intrade. Intrade is gambling with the veneer of financial market.

You aren't trading on any intrinsic value. It is an extremely shallow market which makes it easy to manipulate.

And the derivative markets aren't manipulated?


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