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-   -   General Politics National Tracking Polls: Romney +6 in Last Week (http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=263898)

RINGLEADER 09-18-2012 11:21 AM

National Tracking Polls: Romney +6 in Last Week
 
Strange. I thought all of these Romney gaffes had killed his campaign.

Rasmussen Last Week: Obama: 50, Romney: 46
Rasmussen This Week: Obama: 45, Romney: 47

Gallup Last Week: Obama: 50, Romney: 43
Gallup This Week: Obama: 47, Romney: 46

Given the huge pick-ups Romney makes when Likely Voter filters are applied, I'd say the Gallup and Rasmussen numbers are probably close to, if not exactly, the same.

Let's see if Obama gets another bounce from the 47% remark (doubt it, but we'll see) and how quickly that one fades...

BucEyedPea 09-18-2012 11:52 AM

Yeah, but what about electoral votes by state—national tracking isn't enough. Does show a trend though.

dirk digler 09-18-2012 11:57 AM

State polls show something complete different. Like the one today with Obama up by 8 in Virginia.

RINGLEADER 09-18-2012 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dirk digler (Post 8925040)
State polls show something complete different. Like the one today with Obama up by 8 in Virginia.

Did you see the party ID breakdown?

As for state polls you have Romney up 1 in Florida and up 2 in Colorado just today.

RINGLEADER 09-18-2012 12:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BucEyedPea (Post 8925022)
Yeah, but what about electoral votes by stateónational tracking isn't enough. Does show a trend though.

Also, the candidate that wins the national vote wins the election 97.5% of the time.

suzzer99 09-18-2012 01:03 PM

You are either some kind of shill or a very very confused person.

dirk digler 09-18-2012 01:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER (Post 8925071)
Did you see the party ID breakdown?

As for state polls you have Romney up 1 in Florida and up 2 in Colorado just today.

Lol Rasmussen


United Press International: Obama 49%, Romney 45%.

Reuters/Ipsos: Obama 48%, Romney 43%.

Gallup: Obama 47%, Romney 46%

SurveyUSA/Braun: Obama 48%, Romney 45%

DailyKos/SEIU/PPP: Obama 50%, Romney 46%

Rasmussen: Romney 47%, Obama 45%

A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll will be out tonight at 6:30 pm ET.

qabbaan 09-18-2012 01:23 PM

The traditional pollsters are oversampling democrats and using optimistic turnout models for democrat voters. Unless you look at the sampling model you can't interpret a survey anymore.

RINGLEADER 09-18-2012 01:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dirk digler (Post 8925266)
Lol Rasmussen


United Press International: Obama 49%, Romney 45%.

Reuters/Ipsos: Obama 48%, Romney 43%.

Gallup: Obama 47%, Romney 46%

SurveyUSA/Braun: Obama 48%, Romney 45%

DailyKos/SEIU/PPP: Obama 50%, Romney 46%

Rasmussen: Romney 47%, Obama 45%

A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll will be out tonight at 6:30 pm ET.

These are tracking polls with results from yesterday?

And yes, Rasmussen, the pollster who once again is on the leading edge of Gallup's daily tracking numbers (which, being a 7-day rolling average of registered voters, lagged behind a couple days).

Let's see if NBC/WSJ uses the 2010 model, the 2008 model, or the 2004 model for voter participation.

RINGLEADER 09-18-2012 01:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by suzzer99 (Post 8925252)
You are either some kind of shill or a very very confused person.

I thought you were ignoring me...

LMAO

But if you are confused by this post, please feel free to correct the facts that I got wrong...

dirk digler 09-18-2012 01:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER (Post 8925312)
These are tracking polls with results from yesterday?

And yes, Rasmussen, the pollster who once again is on the leading edge of Gallup's daily tracking numbers (which, being a 7-day rolling average of registered voters, lagged behind a couple days).

Let's see if NBC/WSJ uses the 2010 model, the 2008 model, or the 2004 model for voter participation.

Latest polls from this weekend. Reuters for example was taken between Sept 12-17 and was likely voters.

dirk digler 09-18-2012 01:34 PM

There is a reason why people don't use Rasmussen except conservative partisans.

The Wall Street Journal ranked PPP as one of the top swing state pollsters in the country during the last Presidential election.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/i...SJ-graphic.jpg

RINGLEADER 09-18-2012 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dirk digler (Post 8925328)
Latest polls from this weekend. Reuters for example was taken between Sept 12-17 and was likely voters.

Right. Don't disagree. But if you look at the movement in Rasmussen and Gallup the fall-off started at the end of the week.

Weighting obviously can be tinkered to make any poll have any results you want - just saying that Romney gained 6 points in the daily polls and the majority of that movement has come in the last three days, which is true.

RINGLEADER 09-18-2012 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dirk digler (Post 8925343)
There is a reason why people don't use Rasmussen except conservative partisans.

The Wall Street Journal ranked PPP as one of the top swing state pollsters in the country during the last Presidential election.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/i...SJ-graphic.jpg

OK. Do you think their +10 GOP Akin poll is accurate?

qabbaan 09-18-2012 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER (Post 8925312)
These are tracking polls with results from yesterday?

And yes, Rasmussen, the pollster who once again is on the leading edge of Gallup's daily tracking numbers (which, being a 7-day rolling average of registered voters, lagged behind a couple days).

Let's see if NBC/WSJ uses the 2010 model, the 2008 model, or the 2004 model for voter participation.

The fact that Gallup is trumpeting "registered voters" polls after the conventions speaks for itself.


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